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Decision Desk: Democrats Have 30% Chance of Taking Back the House in 2018

jtb

Banned
Won't happen, they would rather have a more polite less insane Trump than an actual liberal

What does that make Obama?

A couple other factors are Democrats paying too little attention to local and state races, and trends of Democrats packing into big cities leaving massive amounts of territory in between even more solidly Republican.

The Democratic packing problem in urban areas is overstated, given more people live in cities than in rural areas and, remember, Trump is winning rural voters at just as high rates as Dems are winning urban voters. In theory, the GOP is wasting as many votes as Dems are.

It's much more pronounced in the electoral college and in the Senate, where state lines are inherently tilted in favor towards rural states but in the House (in an ideal, non-gerrymandered world) it shouldn't be a factor. When it comes to winning the Presidency or the Senate, it is a glaring issue that needs to be addressed (and, given Dems have Senators in all kinds of rural states, I think we'll be fine). But not one that acts as the primary obstacle towards a house majority.
 

JCHandsom

Member
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RedZaraki

Banned
At this point you should vote for any D candidate that is even ONE PIXEL to the left of center and thank GOD that you got that person in office instead of a literal KKK member.
 

CazTGG

Member
Every House seat is up for election next year, as they are every two years. The problem with the House is gerrymandering.

The Senate on the other hand only elects one third of its members every two years (and cycles through six year terms), and this class is heavily Dem tilted so there's not much room for gains. Still, if Democrats swept the Tossups (according to Larry Sabato, this is Missouri and Indiana which they hold, and Arizona and Nevada which the GOP holds) they would bring the chamber to a tie.

It's worth noting that McCain's seat may also be up for grabs in 2018 short of a(nother) special election being scheduled later this year due to an early retirement, thus raising the chance that the Democrats take back Congress which is critical given the rumors surrounding Kennedy potentially retiring next year. This is all operating under the assumption that Dems don't get the Alabama senate seat in the special election later this year.
 
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