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Digitimes: Nintendo expects to ship 20 million Switch devices in first year

I think most people do not understand at all the implications of the holy trinity

Splatoon x portable x Japan

Add in a console quality portable Mario Kart, an all new 3D Mario and possibly even a Pokemon in the first year, shit will be crazy.

Plus the console itself is truly great, so the word of mouth will be positive.
 
You know I am a pretty casual fan of Nintendo in that I haven't owned one if their consoles since the N64 released. I just wasn't interested in their console offerings but what did interest me was their handhelds but I never bit and bought one. I own both the ps4 and xb1.


When the Switch was announced I was intrigued because it was a hybrid and I started wanting to play Nintendo games again. When the price and games at launch revealed I was initially turned off and said I would wait. Well fast forward to today and me being fully intreched in Zelda and having owned a Switch since last week, I love the thing and I am fucking stoked for Mario Kart, Arms and Splatoon 2. So stoked that in the first time in who knows how long i am lookong forward to a Nintendo E3 conference over noth Sony and MS. Yah its barebones right now but I am a true believer this thing will sell and sell a lot.

Idk if it will reach the type of sales that this article is predicting but I really hope it does. I also have friends who have bought this thing waiting in lines early mornings who haven't owned a Nintendo console since the N64 days either.

I guess what I am trying to say in this long rant is that I disagree with some of you that say "only the hardcore are buying", it's more then the hardcore Ninty fans that are buying this...the casuals are taking notice too.
 
zidanelucis said:
Not really. Looks exactly like the original Splatoon. And Splatoon was never that huge of a seller even on Wii U. It'll probably do better on Switch but you're making it sound like it's as big as Mario Kart or Smash or something. It's not. At best it'll sell 1-2 million. That's not turning any heads.

As for MK8, a port is still a port. Casuals didn't buy this system. Hardcore are the early adopters much like the Wii U. The Wii gimmick, as expected, didn't work this time. Casuals do not care about the Switch. At least from what I've seen.

As for Arms, sorry but it doesn't look that great at all. Looks like it'll either be bad or mediocre. No medium. Certainly isn't going to be some blockbuster hit.

And Pokemon isn't coming out this year. And if it is, it'll only be for 3DS, because 3DS is still very much alive as evident to all the new games being announced.

The actual new Pokemon game just started development.
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zidanelucis said:
That's great. Didn't know that actually. Good for it. Bought it at launch and was pretty much SFV'd since it had literally no content or any substance or "heart" at launch. Didn't bother playing it afterwards and not really interested to go back. I'm aware they patched it back but I judge a game when it's out and frankly, there's just too many games to play.

But anyway, Splatoon 2 looks too similar to Splatoon 1 so I'm going to standby what I said. Don't think it'll turn any heads.
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zidanelucis said:
I think you're overestimating Nintendo's 1st Party. Over the years they've lost consumer confidence on their products due to their questionable games within these franchises. Nintendo's 1st Party isn't what it used to be. Hardcore games aren't swayed by it anymore and casuals just don't care period.

So even though on paper a Zelda, Mario Kart, 3D Mario, etc. sounds like a solid lineup that'll get everyone to buy the system, it simply isn't true. If that was the case, Wii U would be flying off shelves because it had every single line of Nintendo support with some stellar games, yet it did nothing.
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You are so very incredibly out of touch. My goodness.

As you say, we'll see, but prepare to be flat out wrong.
 
Lol at 110 million it like they expect Switch to sell 40 more millon than 3DS did. Absolutely insane and not happening.
 
I'll only believe this if mainline Pokemon and Smash port are confirmed for next fiscal year.

Pokemon at around the same time as Mario for the holidays, and Smash in Feb/March 2018. A line up like this would have MASSIVE amounts of attention for the holidays and with renewed hype around the final DLC installment of Zelda, everyone (Pokemon fans, Mario fans, teens/gamers in their 20's for Smash and your gamers reaching their 40's for Zelda) will be looking to pick one up if they haven't already.

I would just love to see this lineup happen to see what the "artificial scarcity" believers would say.

Wounded Pride Nintendo, is best Nintendo.
 
I don't understand how the PS4 could go slimmer if both the Slim and Pro are already manufactured at 14nm. Perhaps an all-digital model that removes the disk drive? Or maybe just a few years away from releasing that uses 10nm or 7nm?
 
Its kinda disheartening to see that majority are ignorant of the portable gaming market. With the Switch being tgr 3DS sucessor and soon to have thr Monster Hunter, Pokemon and Fire Emblem series migrating, Kimishima is thinking alot of 3DS gamers will migrate, which is good assumption. Based on that abd Switch demand strong, he has a right to be bullish. Honestly I'm more interested in thid new PS4 Slimmer. Is Sony reacting to Switch portability??
 
Chittagong said:
I think most people do not understand at all the implications of the holy trinity

Splatoon x portable x Japan

Add in a console quality portable Mario Kart, an all new 3D Mario and possibly even a Pokemon in the first year, shit will be crazy.

Plus the console itself is truly great, so the word of mouth will be positive.
Click to expand...

No doubt. Add Pokémon and monster hunter and I've gotta get one for my son. Add stardew and a harvest moon and/or story of seasons, and I've gotta get one for my wife. It's a very appealing system.

I don't think it's gonna be as crazy as this article, but it's gonna be better than what many people are guessing.

Mass Appeal said:
You know I am a pretty casual fan of Nintendo in that I haven't owned one if their consoles since the N64 released. I just wasn't interested in their console offerings but what did interest me was their handhelds but I never bit and bought one. I own both the ps4 and xb1.


When the Switch was announced I was intrigued because it was a hybrid and I started wanting to play Nintendo games again. When the price and games at launch revealed I was initially turned off and said I would wait. Well fast forward to today and me being fully intreched in Zelda and having owned a Switch since last week, I love the thing and I am fucking stoked for Mario Kart, Arms and Splatoon 2. So stoked that in the first time in who knows how long i am lookong forward to a Nintendo E3 conference over noth Sony and MS. Yah its barebones right now but I am a true believer this thing will sell and sell a lot.

Idk if it will reach the type of sales that this article is predicting but I really hope it does. I also have friends who have bought this thing waiting in lines early mornings who haven't owned a Nintendo console since the N64 days either.

I guess what I am trying to say in this long rant is that I disagree with some of you that say "only the hardcore are buying", it's more then the hardcore Ninty fans that are buying this...the casuals are taking notice too.
Click to expand...

Where I'm coming from. I just don't think it's only hardcore. I know too many non Nintendo fans who are trying to get one of these. Hell, my mother in law actually knows what it is. That's surprising to me.
 
IlGialloMondadori said:
But GAF said it would bomb though...

sounds crazy, but i do think the switch will do well. Just maybe not that well.
Click to expand...

Because they have essentially consolidated handheld and home console lifetime for first gen switch 80 million plus doesn't seem crazy.

Worst case 50 million by 2020 imo.
 
ZOONAMI said:
Because they have essentially consolidated handheld and home console lifetime for first gen switch 80 million plus doesn't seem crazy.

Worst case 50 million by 2020 imo.
Click to expand...

Yeah i think that's a good worst case bet. It'll easily do more than GC. It's a sexy piece of hardware and fits a lot of people well.
 
I've gotten to the point were I don't believe Digitimes on anything game console related. However, Nintendo already revised from 8 million up to 16 million, if the hype hasn't died down come summer I wouldn't be surprised to see them revise it up again.
 
Chittagong said:
I think most people do not understand at all the implications of the holy trinity

Splatoon x portable x Japan

Add in a console quality portable Mario Kart, an all new 3D Mario and possibly even a Pokemon in the first year, shit will be crazy.

Plus the console itself is truly great, so the word of mouth will be positive.
Click to expand...

Also whereas it is not clear how Zelda will do in Japan, as I've mentioned before, in the U.S. I can say without a doubt the thing I thought I would never say again: It's absolutely selling consoles. As a semi-retired hardcore gamer, I can easily say the console was worth the price of admission on its own and in concert with the everlasting gobstopper that is Breath of the Wild.
 
IlGialloMondadori said:
Yeah i think that's a good worst case bet. It'll easily do more than GC. It's a sexy piece of hardware and fits a lot of people well.
Click to expand...

What's kind of crazy is if you look at combined 3ds, Wii U, and switch sales from 2013-2020.

Probably looking at 130 million plus total hardware sales in 7 years. Way better than MS, and even Sony, and likely with better margins.

Nintendo sort of does know what they are doing, provided switch doesn't totally bomb. Software licensing is where they are losing out with the lack of 3rd parties, so they try to make it up on hardware sales and margins. Honestly if Scorpio doesn't do well I could see MS pulling the plug.
 
GregLombardi said:
Also whereas it is not clear how Zelda will do in Japan, as I've mentioned before, in the U.S. I can say without a doubt the thing I thought I would never say again: It's absolutely selling consoles. As a semi-retired hardcore gamer, I can easily say the console was worth the price of admission on its own and in concert with the everlasting gobstopper that is Breath of the Wild.
Click to expand...

I've put 50 hours into zelda so far. It's very rare for me to put that much time into a game, or gaming in general in such a short amount of time. It literally took me years to put that much time into fallout 3. Destiny probably took me a year to hit that mark. Witcher 3 I have about 30 hours in and it took me 2 years to do it. They have a system seller for sure.
 
TimeEffect said:
Is 100 Million...possible? Do they expect to push Sony to 2nd?
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If you factor in 3ds, Wii U, and Switch from 2013-2020 they probably will easily beat Sony, with better margins on hardware I'm guessing. You could say they have been following an iterative model since 2011. Switch certainly almost feels like an iterative Wii U, that also happens to replace 3DS. I think we will see switch 2 in 2020.

Sony moved to one system, and MS always has been. So it's relevant to compare total system sales over same timespan.
 
C7sgD-pW4AE-0HE.jpg
 
zidanelucis said:
Yeah, no. Good luck with that. That's overconfident beyond belief. This is going to bite them in the foot, as always.

At best it's going to do 5 or so million, if at that it's even lucky.

Literally, it's a Zelda machine until Mario in Holiday. The masses don't care about Fire Emblem Warriors, a repaint of Splatoon 2 that looks like Splatoon 1, and a Mario Kart 8 port, + can't forget the millions of indie games and shovelware that are bound to come and don't forget the absolutely 0 AAA 3rd Party support.

Coming from someone who has a Switch, it's legitimately a Zelda machine until Mario.
Click to expand...

Is this a parody or GAF meme I'm not aware of?
 
Asd202 said:
The portable console market has had a massive decline from previous gen that's a fact.I don't see why now it would go back to such high numbers.
Click to expand...

Because even low numbers for the portable market are still considered high for the console market.

Everyone talks about the Wii phenomenon, forgetting that the DS sold more. A LOT more. A full LTD sales of the SNES more

The 3DS is Nintendo's worst selling portable and with a 2 year lead has still sold almost 15 million more units that the PS4 worldwide. It will probably take Sony a year to move past it.
 
ZOONAMI said:
What's kind of crazy is if you look at combined 3ds, Wii U, and switch sales from 2013-2020.

Probably looking at 130 million plus total hardware sales in 7 years. Way better than MS, and even Sony, and likely with better margins.

Nintendo sort of does know what they are doing, provided switch doesn't totally bomb. Software licensing is where they are losing out with the lack of 3rd parties, so they try to make it up on hardware sales and margins. Honestly if Scorpio doesn't do well I could see MS pulling the plug.
Click to expand...

Might as well add ps3 sales post 2011 and 360 sales if you're going to play your hyperbole game. You also need to account for the shrinking handheld market. 3ds sales are less than half of what the DS did and i expect a somewhat similar drop for any Nintendo handheld going forward. Sure the Switch will be successful because of the merging of console and handheld but I dont see them hitting 16 million in the first year at all.
 
That's nice. I don't think there's a prayer of that happening, but that's still nice.

Right now they're relying on Zelda fans. After that it's a long road until Mario Odyssey.
 
Duxxy3 said:
That's nice. I don't think there's a prayer of that happening, but that's still nice.

Right now they're relying on Zelda fans. After that it's a long road until Mario Odyssey.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Kinda weird they have total of 0 titles in 9 months between Zelda and Mario but what else to expect from Nintendo I guess.
 
Duxxy3 said:
That's nice. I don't think there's a prayer of that happening, but that's still nice.

Right now they're relying on Zelda fans. After that it's a long road until Mario Odyssey.
Click to expand...

I genuinely don't think Mario Odyssey will sell Switches.

Zelda is already doing it's job, add MK8, Splatoon and especially if Pokemon Stars happens... baby, you've got a stew cookin'!
 
NolbertoS said:
Its kinda disheartening to see that majority are ignorant of the portable gaming market. With the Switch being tgr 3DS sucessor and soon to have thr Monster Hunter, Pokemon and Fire Emblem series migrating, Kimishima is thinking alot of 3DS gamers will migrate, which is good assumption. Based on that abd Switch demand strong, he has a right to be bullish. Honestly I'm more interested in thid new PS4 Slimmer. Is Sony reacting to Switch portability??
Click to expand...
Yeah PS4 Switch. You can take it anywhere or play at home
 
Duxxy3 said:
That's nice. I don't think there's a prayer of that happening, but that's still nice.

Right now they're relying on Zelda fans. After that it's a long road until Mario Odyssey.
Click to expand...

Mario Kart is going to be pretty damn big me thinks.
 
Fou-Lu said:
Definitely some underestimation of Mario Kart 8 and Splatoon 2 in this thread.
Click to expand...

People underestimate Mario Kart 8 and Splatoon 2 all the time. Mario Kart 8 because "it's just a Wii U port" and Splatoon 2 because most people are oblivious to how successful Splatoon was.

In Mario Kart 8's case I was actually guilty about that as well, since I vastly underestimated Switch's launch demand. I thought the console would only appeal to the usual Nintendo fans who already own a Wii U and would be widely available after the first weekend. It seems Nintendo actually delivered a hybrid that is appealing to a wider audience, though, and I don't doubt anymore that Mario Kart 8 will be doing a nice job.
 
wrowa said:
People underestimate Mario Kart 8 and Splatoon 2 all the time. Mario Kart 8 because "it's just a Wii U port" and Splatoon 2 because most people are oblivious to how successful Splatoon was.

In Mario Kart 8's case I was actually guilty about that as well, since I vastly underestimated Switch's launch demand. I thought the console would only appeal to the usual Nintendo fans who already own a Wii U and would be widely available after the first weekend. It seems Nintendo actually delivered a hybrid that is appealing to a wider audience, though, and I don't doubt anymore that Mario Kart 8 will be doing a nice job.
Click to expand...
That plus people think it's too similar to the first game.
 
PS4 Pro Slim makes sense for them to add in 4K Bluray support, to compete with the Scorpio and XB1S. Maybe even fix the loud fan noises some people complain about.
 
Kuro said:
Might as well add ps3 sales post 2011 and 360 sales if you're going to play your hyperbole game. You also need to account for the shrinking handheld market. 3ds sales are less than half of what the DS did and i expect a somewhat similar drop for any Nintendo handheld going forward. Sure the Switch will be successful because of the merging of console and handheld but I dont see them hitting 16 million in the first year at all.
Click to expand...

I'm not talking about sales post 2011. Just saying since 3ds launch Nintendo perhaps has been pursuing an iterative strategy. For sure we should include 2013 and on PS3 and 360 sales though, and vita.

If Nintendo outsells all Sony and MS hardware respectively from 2013-2020 that is a big deal. It is a BIG if though, completely depends on switch selling 60 million or so switches in 3 years time. It will be tough for them to catch Sony. Even so their software licensing lags in comparison so Sony should still have them beat on revenue and profits. Especially factoring in PS plus subs.

So, there is perhaps some hyperbole in saying they can sell that many switches but I don't think it's totally unlikely either. Especially if a switch sku is $199 by holiday 2018. With 3DS doing the numbers it has at that price point I don't think it's crazy. It's sort of like saying they could have done 60 million combined 3ds and Wii U sales in 3 years time of Wii U wasn't such a failure. They did do 13 million and probably 40 million or so 3ds in 4 years, but I think the switch hardware gives them a shot at doing at least 53 million in 3 years.
 
ZOONAMI said:
I'm not talking about sales post 2011. Just saying since 3ds launch Nintendo perhaps has been pursuing an iterative strategy. For sure we should include 2013 and on PS3 and 360 sales though, and vita.

If Nintendo outsells all Sony and MS hardware respectively from 2013-2020 that is a big deal. It is a BIG if though, completely depends on switch selling 60 million or so switches in 3 years time. It will be tough for them to catch Sony. Even so their software licensing lags in comparison so Sony should still have them beat on revenue and profits. Especially factoring in PS plus subs.

So, there is perhaps some hyperbole in saying they can sell that many switches but I don't think it's totally unlikely either. Especially if a switch sku is $199 by holiday 2018.
Click to expand...

So I looked at numbers on wikipedia for just Sony and Nintendo starting from 2013.

Starting from 2013 3DS shipped 34 million, Wii U launched in 2012 so excluding launch numbers it shipped 10.5 million starting form 2013.

It's a lot harder to get Sony numbers. Sony announced as of November 2013 PS3 has sold 80 million, right now it's sitting at over 84 million but we don't know the exact number. So let's just say that since 2013 PS3 sold 6 million which is a very low estimate. It's impossible to get Vita numbers it was at January 2013 at over 4 million but Sony have not shared their numbers beyond that so let's just say 2 million since lol. PS4 numbers is easy to get so as of December 2016 it's 57 million shipped.

So in total it's:
Nintendo without Switch and without 2017 sales numbers for 3DS/WiiU is around 45 million.

Sony since 2013 without 2017 numbers and a lot of wrong guess work is around 65 million.

So Switch would need to close around 20 million gap with PS4 still selling and most likely PS5 before 2020 so yeah not really happening with just Sony. If you want to factor in MS it absolutely impossible for Nintendo to sell more hardware than both combined in 2013-2020 by a lot.
 
Mass Appeal said:
You know I am a pretty casual fan of Nintendo in that I haven't owned one if their consoles since the N64 released. I just wasn't interested in their console offerings but what did interest me was their handhelds but I never bit and bought one. I own both the ps4 and xb1.


When the Switch was announced I was intrigued because it was a hybrid and I started wanting to play Nintendo games again. When the price and games at launch revealed I was initially turned off and said I would wait. Well fast forward to today and me being fully intreched in Zelda and having owned a Switch since last week, I love the thing and I am fucking stoked for Mario Kart, Arms and Splatoon 2. So stoked that in the first time in who knows how long i am lookong forward to a Nintendo E3 conference over noth Sony and MS. Yah its barebones right now but I am a true believer this thing will sell and sell a lot.

Idk if it will reach the type of sales that this article is predicting but I really hope it does. I also have friends who have bought this thing waiting in lines early mornings who haven't owned a Nintendo console since the N64 days either.

I guess what I am trying to say in this long rant is that I disagree with some of you that say "only the hardcore are buying", it's more then the hardcore Ninty fans that are buying this...the casuals are taking notice too.
Click to expand...

Yeah I'm seeing people who never bought a Nintendo system before buying the Switch. There is something about this system that is attracting interest from a wider audience.

Nintendo is always innovating and bringing new ways of playing. Doesn't always pay off for them (Wii U), but when it does it changes the industry forever and they make bank of it (DS, Wii). Gotta give it to them for not playing it safe and continually changing things up.
 
Yeah, I very much doubt that. The dedicated handheld market isn't big enough and the system doesn't have the breadth of games to appeal to enough people.
 
Asd202 said:
So I looked at numbers on wikipedia for just Sony and Nintendo starting from 2013.

Starting from 2013 3DS shipped 34 million, Wii U launched in 2012 so excluding launch numbers it shipped 10.5 million starting form 2013.

It's a lot harder to get Sony numbers. Sony announced as of November 2013 PS3 has sold 80 million, right now it's sitting at over 84 million but we don't know the exact number. So let's just say that since 2013 PS3 sold 6 million which is a very low estimate. It's impossible to get Vita numbers it was at January 2013 at over 4 million but Sony have not shared their numbers beyond that so let's just say 2 million since lol. PS4 numbers is easy to get so as of December 2016 it's 57 million shipped.

So in total it's:
Nintendo without Switch and without 2017 sales numbers for 3DS/WiiU is around 45 million.

Sony since 2013 without 2017 numbers and a lot of wrong guess work is around 65 million.

So Switch would need to close around 20 million gap with PS4 still selling and most likely PS5 before 2020 so yeah not really happening with just Sony.
Click to expand...

Yes I agree, will be tough to catch Sony on hardware alone and that isn't even factoring in huge software licensing and subscription advantages. Sony is clearly on the gaming throne right now. I honestly think it's not hard to say Nintendo is already in 2nd place though. Ms is embarrassing on a global level.

And damn yeah Sony has a runaway success with PS4. But I disagree, they will not launch ps5 by the end of 2020.

And yeah I said respectively so I'm not saying both combined lol.
 
I do not think the Switch will sell hot enough from now until the fall to warrant these predictions. I think launch hype and Zelda is clouding judgement. The summer lineup they have planned so far is extremely thin and the handheld market has shrunk significantly.

I don't think parents will be paying 300 and 60 for games on a "handheld". And the lineup is too bare to run with other consoles.
 
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