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[Valnen]

Sony\Microsoft have learned their lesson about long console life.

We are back to 5 year schedules.

I will only be okay with this is they stick with the x86 architecture forever and give us backwards compatibility on all future consoles.

 

[Snatch1414]

This gen still feels pretty new. A lot of big developers still haven't released their first game yet. I feel that we're likely in for another long generation.

Agreed, and honestly I have yet to be blown away by anything on these new consoles. I feel like with MGS and Fallout 4 we're just now finally getting into exciting new stuff.

 

[Drilbit777]

I'd say this is going to last at least 6 years tops, the PS3/X360 era overstayed its welcome for way too long and they need to avoid that again.

 

[FunkyPajamas]

I think it's too early to tell; sales in year 3 (or after the first dual-price cut) will determine lifespan of the consoles, I think. If I were to guess, 5 years would definitely be too short, but I don't think we're looking at 10 years. Perhaps 6-8? 100USD price drop for both by next year, then another 100USD drop three years hence?

I will only be okay with this is they stick with the x86 architecture forever and give us backwards compatibility on all future consoles.

Oh, definitely. I'm counting on this. Otherwise they can fuck right off.

Use the same architecture and keep iterating on the OS to make it a properly full-featured OS, instead of having to create one from scratch for every new system launch.

 

[aerts1js]

This gen feels like it's barely started so 30% is way too high; maybe like 10-15%

 

[Jack Scofield]

Nothing has even happened yet.

 

[Nirolak]

The general sentiment among publishers was that last-gen was too long, and that was despite a really slow start up and switched from high end parts to mid-tier parts for the 360/PS3 -> PS4/XB1 generation.

This generation we have people buying a ton of systems up front, so I'd expect sales to slow down notably a fair bit sooner.

With the advent of cross-gen, machines that are basically profitable up front, and the huge upfront success of these consoles, the console vendors will feel much better about transitioning to the next generation than they did coming into this generation as well.

I would expect us to be replacing the consoles by Fall 2019.

In general though, the reason it may feel like less has happened is that much of the existing lifespan consisted of cross-gen games, and in general, there are vastly less high profile retail games than there used to be. While we're past the former, the latter isn't going away, so this will be the general feeling going forward.

 

[ShamePain]

i don't think sony would kill ps4 once ps5 comes out. with them, i think they're actually enjoying having a multiplatform ecosystem right now with ps3/ps4/vita and sometimes just ps3/ps4 or ps4/vita. instead of having third-parties make definitive versions years later, they could make ps4 and ps5 specced versions and reach more people by dropping the ps4 down to mass-market prices and making the ps5 the high-end new cool thing. after two years, the ps5 should be at its own midpoint and getting games that are exclusive, and the cycle can repeat.

Still, to make ps5 a meaningful upgrade they should wait for big tech advancements like HBM, which right now is high end and expensive, but once affordable will give big boosts to graphics capabilities. I think nextgen should aim at least for 5Tf of power.

 

[dantevsninjas]

I think those who expect a 5 year cycle are going to be very disappointed.

NX will change everything
it will reboot the industry as we know it

That doesn't seem likely.

 

[Plinko]

I don't buy for a second that they're on a 5-year console cycle. Not even close. If PS4 sales are still brisk, there's no way they release a system that soon.

 

[Lexad]

We don't hear about a new console until 2018 at the earliest, more likely 2019 with a 2020 release

That gives 6-7 years

 

[aerts1js]

People expecting 5 year console cycles are really out of touch.

 

[DagnastyEp]

Still, to make ps5 a meaningful upgrade they should wait for big tech advancements like HBM, which right now is high end and expensive, but once affordable will give big boosts to graphics capabilities. I think nextgen should aim at least for 5Tf of power.

I would be surprised if it was double that, based on historical gains generation to generation, and the advent of VR and 4K.

 

[FunkyPajamas]

People expecting 5 year console cycles are really out of touch.

4 years then?

 

[aerts1js]

4 years then?

try 7-8 years

 

[Caronte]

In my own my mind I only feel that a generation is past a midpoint is when all major franchises have had at least one game released, some even two games. So far we are still waiting on:
Gears
Uncharted
Gran Turismo
God of War
Remedy's game
Quantic Dream game
Elder Scrolls game
Mass Effect
Final Fantasy
etc.

Grand Theft Auto too (5 doesn't count). There's no way they'll release a new generation so soon.

 

[Tansut]

It took a good year and a half for the previous generation to finally die out.

Metal Gear Solid 5, one of the biggest releases of the year, has a 360/PS3 version coming out.

The PS4 is selling very, very well.

Literally nobody is in a hurry except for GAF.

 

[FunkyPajamas]

try 7-8 years

so -1 year?

 

[120v]

I've never quite understood why so many here on GAF think this will be a short console cycle. I feel like it directly ties into PC specs, which means very little to those who don't play PC games. By no means am I insinuating some sinister PC Master Race agenda, but many opinions do seem to be tied to PC gaming despite console gaming being very much its own beast.

tech in general is throttling ahead. of course publishers will cater to consoles over enthusiast PCs but with 4k and VR the disparities are going to be pretty glaring about three years from now

 

[serversurfer]

I'm down with a five year cycle. That's only $80/year for hardware if you jump in at the beginning of the cycle. Wait a couple of years to jump in and maybe it works out to $60/year, which is the cost of a single game. That's not a bad deal for the peace of mind offered by a console, IMHO.

They just need to make it so upgrading from PlayStation 4 to PlayStation 5 is more like upgrading from iPhone 4 to iPhone 5.

 

[Nirolak]

People expecting 5 year console cycles are really out of touch.

try 7-8 years

You... were around for the end of the last generation, yes?

 

[To Far Away Times]

NX could push the time table. Also, if the Xbox continues losing marketshare to PS4 then they won't want a long generation either.

Last gen was as long as it was because it was in everyone's best interests to do so. Nintendo raked in money hand over fist, MS tripling or quadrupling marketshare from their prior console, and Sony recouping losses and rebuilding the Playstation brand from the horrible first few years of the PS3. PS4 as it exists now wasn't going to happen without the second half of the PS3's lifespan.

This gen isn't like that. Sony will want a long generation and the others won't.

 

[Prototype]

At least 6 year cycle, I think.

 

[ZOONAMI]

It depends on if something more compelling comes out in the next 3 years that forces new product releases from sony and ms.

Could be NX, maybe something from Apple.

If nx is significantly more powerful than ps4 (unlikely) and it sells well, would force the other two to release in 2018.

It looks like apple will be formally entering the console market with the next apple tv coming out soon, and they aren't afraid of short product life cycles. Could be two apple tvs that release between now and 2018.

 

[fluffydelusions]

It depends on if something more compelling comes out in the next 3 years that forces new product releases from sony and ms.

Could be NX, maybe something from Apple.

If nx is significantly more powerful than ps4 (unlikely) and it sells well, would force the other two to release in 2018.

It looks like apple will be formally entering the console market with the next apple tv coming out soon, and they aren't afraid of short product life cycles. Could be two apple tvs that release between now and 2018.

Didn't they already say it was not going to be more powerful than PS4?

 

[ForsakenLotus]

tech in general is throttling ahead. of course publishers will cater to consoles over enthusiast PCs but with 4k and VR the disparities are going to be pretty glaring about three years from now

There is no doubt, but I just don't think there will be a fast enough adoption of 4K and VR by general consumers to warrant shortening the console generation. PC games already look noticeably better than 95% of console games, and often have 60FPS as a possibility at the same time - but that is for the enthusiast market. I just don't buy the notion that the enthusiast, hardcore PC gaming space will dictate in any major way the length of the console generation.

There may be other factors in why the generation might only last 5-6 years, but PC's being a lot more powerful will be negligible...I think.

 

[Bleedgreen007]

Am I the only one who thinks we are going to exceed the life span of last gen? Think of how far the 360 came since launch as well as ps3. These newer consoles are far more future-proof. Add that to the cost of releasing a new console, and I don't see any reason why we should expect a new console for another 7 years

 

[demosthenes]

AAA budgets being so fucking crazy. That's what kept the last generation going on as long as it did. As budgets continue to rise, gens will get longer, the jump gets harder to make each time.

Or maybe devs/pubs will figure out that making their own engines is too costly and everything will just be UE4.

Based on what I've seen of UE4 so far, I have no problem w/ this.

 

[lyrick]

If this Gen drags out like last gen it may end up being the last console gen.

In the past developed market console & software sales start taking a decent nose dive after the third year on the market, another 7-8 year gen will not help things.

With how low tech these consoles launched a 5 year cycle still allow for a hell of a boost. Even if they stick with low to mid range specs with the next gen too.

 

[Plinko]

Didn't they already say it was not going to be more powerful than PS4?

Nobody said anything official. One rumor was that they were going with an incredibly cheap system that was underpowered but that was shot down by insiders on GAF.

 

[thomasmahler]

It'll all depend on the market.

If VR is going to explode next year or the year after that, we might even see things happening sooner.

I'd guess that Holiday 2018 we'll know about the new consoles and they'll ship in 2019.

 

[FTF]

5 years was never realistic due to how long it takes to make games now. I think we're in for another 7 year cycle, which is fine by me.

 

[ZOONAMI]

Didn't they already say it was not going to be more powerful than PS4?

Who's they? No one has confirmed anything. Unseen64 said that but then sort of said the opposite.

 

[Tertullian]

I think the generation will be another long one (6-7 years). Diminishing returns, increasing cost of producing AAA games, and all that.

I don't see why VR would have any direct effect on this. I don't think 4k will make much of a difference either, since I seriously doubt they'll be able to make reasonable-priced consoles capable of 4k graphics by 2019 when the current generation still struggles with 1080p.

 

[Kill3r7]

The general sentiment among publishers was that last-gen was too long, and that was despite a really slow start up and switched from high end parts to mid-tier parts for the 360/PS3 -> PS4/XB1 generation.

This generation we have people buying a ton of systems up front, so I'd expect sales to slow down notably a fair bit sooner.

With the advent of cross-gen, machines that are basically profitable up front, and the huge upfront success of these consoles, the console vendors will feel much better about transitioning to the next generation than they did coming into this generation as well.

I would expect us to be replacing the consoles by Fall 2019.

In general though, the reason it may feel like less has happened is that much of the existing lifespan consisted of cross-gen games, and in general, there are vastly less high profile retail games than there used to be. While we're past the former, the latter isn't going away, so this will be the general feeling going forward.

Nailed it! 2019 sounds about right.

It depends on if something more compelling comes out in the next 3 years that forces new product releases from sony and ms.

Could be NX, maybe something from Apple.

If nx is significantly more powerful than ps4 (unlikely) and it sells well, would force the other two to release in 2018.

It looks like apple will be formally entering the console market with the next apple tv coming out soon, and they aren't afraid of short product life cycles. Could be two apple tvs that release between now and 2018.

NX will have little to no impact on Sony or MS' strategy. Both are competing for a different type of consumer who is going to demand a graphically powerful console with online play. IMO, with each passing day consoles are getting closer and closer to becoming steam machines (especially Xbox).

 

[codhand]

This will be a very long gen, unless Nintendo launches some powerhouse very soon.

.......This will be a very long gen.

 

[JayhawkerStL]

I'm gonna be bold and predict 40%. I get the feeling we'll see a new MS console in 2018.

Yep! There is no denying that MS stepped in it for this gen, and won't be catching up. But I also think they will come out of the gates on fire next gen.

Their constant updates and improvements to the Xbox One shows that they are learning and perfecting some real console magic. It won't ever make the XB1 the dominant console this gen, but it gives Microsoft one hell of a road map for next gen.

Sony learned a lot during their PS3 generation, but Microsoft is poising themselves to really take a giant leap for their 4th console. They are rolling out so many improvements in the current generation that they will have a much better idea of what they need under the hood going forward.

I think 2018 sounds like about the right time to make another go at it.

 

[Game Guru]

This generation will be as long as publishers like Activision, EA, and Ubisoft want it to be and not a year longer.

 

[ZOONAMI]

Nailed it! 2019 sounds about right.




NX will have little to no impact on Sony or MS' strategy. Both are competing for a different type of consumer who is going to demand a graphically powerful console with online play. IMO, with each passing day consoles are getting closer and closer to becoming steam machines (especially Xbox).

I'm pretty sure the NX will be at least graphically comparable to the ps4 and xbone, and will have online play. So, like I said, if NX is significantly more powerful than ps4, and it sells well (thus taking away sales from Sony/MS), Sony and MS will release their next systems sooner rather than later. I don't really think this scenario is very likely, but it's possible.

 

[Damerman]

If they stick to x86 Architecture, i dont think it's toO crazy to think they will release consoles every 5 years with small iterative growth in power. With 14nm fabs coming out relatively soon... There is no doubt MS and SONY are gonna jump on that.

 

[Ramsiege]

It took a good year and a half for the previous generation to finally die out.

Metal Gear Solid 5, one of the biggest releases of the year, has a 360/PS3 version coming out.

The PS4 is selling very, very well.

Literally nobody is in a hurry except for GAF.

My thoughts exactly. Outside of GAF, no one is looking forward to buying new machines.

 

[fluffydelusions]

Nobody said anything official. One rumor was that they were going with an incredibly cheap system that was underpowered but that was shot down by insiders on GAF.

Who's they? No one has confirmed anything. Unseen64 said that but then sort of said the opposite.

Ah alright

 

[SmokedMeat]

Regardless of when you think the next gen would start, you can bank on the first 24 months of software for it being even more limited and small than this gen.

Ding! Ding! Ding!

The current consoles are too weak!
There's fewer games then before!
We need more powerful hardware!
Now there's even less games then before!
Publisher "x" went out of business.

 

[serversurfer]

Nobody said anything official. One rumor was that they were going with an incredibly cheap system that was underpowered but that was shot down by insiders on GAF.

Oh, really? Didn't Nintendo say something about wanting to sell 20M of these in the first year, or did I dream that? I was thinking it would need to be pretty … affordable for them to hit numbers like that in year one.

 

[Roronoa]

with the way dev works, it's gonna be as long if not longer than the previous one.

 

[ShamePain]

It depends on if something more compelling comes out in the next 3 years that forces new product releases from sony and ms.

Could be NX, maybe something from Apple.

If nx is significantly more powerful than ps4 (unlikely) and it sells well, would force the other two to release in 2018.

It looks like apple will be formally entering the console market with the next apple tv coming out soon, and they aren't afraid of short product life cycles. Could be two apple tvs that release between now and 2018.

NX won't be more powerful than X1/PS4 and it's unlikely to sell well. Chances are Nin's next next gen console will launch at the same time or shortly after Xbox 4 and ps5.

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

I feel its only really JUST kicking into gear. I'd say new consoles 2019 earliest I'd say.

 

[ZOONAMI]

Oh, really? Didn't Nintendo say something about wanting to sell 20M of these in the first year, or did I dream that? I was thinking it would need to be pretty … affordable for them to hit numbers like that in year one.

Nintendo didn't say that. Unsubstantiated rumors from Taiwanese site Digitimes who also thinks Nintendo has confirmed a 2016 release date for NX.

 

[dgrdsv]

You... were around for the end of the last generation, yes?

Well, the length of the last generation is the reason why this generation is selling so well. So unless MS will decide to pull a 360 and launch an Xbox 4 in four years from the previous one I really don't think that this gen will be much shorter than PS360 one. Well, one year shorter maybe because both launched in the same year this time so that gives us a 7 years lifespan and puts PS5/Xb4 in 2020.

And I don't think that this is a problem as this gen's start is a very slow one in terms of software. H/w is selling great but there just isn't enough still to push big publishers into taking risks with big new IPs. And unless there is - it's too early to end the generation.

 

[ZOONAMI]

NX won't be more powerful than X1/PS4 and it's unlikely to sell well. Chances are Nin's next next gen console will launch at the same time or shortly after Xbox 4 and ps5.

Ah so you're not only sure about NX specs, but are also predicting the release date for the next next nintendo console. Lol.