So I wanted to address this belief because I've seen it more often on the board in recent days. Historically, it's very hard to argue that some particular exclusives have sold a lot of consoles. GTAIII on PS2 is an example; Wii Sports is an example; Nintendogs is an example. These are very hard to argue against meaningfully.
Of course, there are also things like 24: the game or Captain Rainbow which almost certainly did not sell consoles.
So the lesson here should be something that was obvious: sometimes, exclusives sell systems. Sometimes they do not. We can almost certainly make the same observation about multiplatform games: sometimes they sell systems. Sometimes they do not. The only complication with multiplatform games is that their system-selling potential may be spread across multiple platforms; for instance, a PS4/Xbox One game may effectively sell 100,000 systems, but that may be 50,000 PS4s and 50,000 Xboxes.
If exclusives don't seem to be moving consoles right now, it's not because exclusives suddenly lost the power to sell systems; it's because the exclusive games being released just aren't big movers. I'm quite sure that if something like GTAIII dropped exclusively on Xbox One today, that would significantly alter the shape of the generation. It isn't that this cannot possibly happen; it's just that it hasn't happened, which is an important distinction.
Of course, there are also things like 24: the game or Captain Rainbow which almost certainly did not sell consoles.
So the lesson here should be something that was obvious: sometimes, exclusives sell systems. Sometimes they do not. We can almost certainly make the same observation about multiplatform games: sometimes they sell systems. Sometimes they do not. The only complication with multiplatform games is that their system-selling potential may be spread across multiple platforms; for instance, a PS4/Xbox One game may effectively sell 100,000 systems, but that may be 50,000 PS4s and 50,000 Xboxes.
If exclusives don't seem to be moving consoles right now, it's not because exclusives suddenly lost the power to sell systems; it's because the exclusive games being released just aren't big movers. I'm quite sure that if something like GTAIII dropped exclusively on Xbox One today, that would significantly alter the shape of the generation. It isn't that this cannot possibly happen; it's just that it hasn't happened, which is an important distinction.