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Exploration of Probability of a UAP Seen on Earth Originating from Another Planet

Crayon

Member
If aliens hung around here for a long time, I couldn't take a guess at why. If something really is that more advanced than us and wants to hang around playing peekaboo, it's hard to think of motivations that fit the profile. The most relatable concept I can think would be manipulation. But manipulation towards what end, I have no idea.

"Why" is a bridge to come, though. We are still on "what" is actually flying around.
 

midnightAI

Member
If, might, possibly, could be, probably, theoretically, hypothetically, maybe...

Strange things to argue over if you ask me
 

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
If aliens hung around here for a long time, I couldn't take a guess at why. If something really is that more advanced than us and wants to hang around playing peekaboo, it's hard to think of motivations that fit the profile. The most relatable concept I can think would be manipulation. But manipulation towards what end, I have no idea.

"Why" is a bridge to come, though. We are still on "what" is actually flying around.

Humans on Earth hang around lesser life forms quite often and sometimes even live in their environment to observe them better.

Is our primary motive manipulation?
 

Crayon

Member
Humans on Earth hang around lesser life forms quite often and sometimes even live in their environment to observe them better.

Is our primary motive manipulation?

Well we hang around animals for many reasons. Either way I'd say the comparison is only apt for the very smartest animals since there is not much to manipulate about a moo cow or housecat or whatever. We teach a gorilla sign laguage for our own study but as far as they are concerned, the teacher is just their friend. Our actual motivation is beyond their comprehension.

So that is what I mean by manipulation. What if we could think one thing is going on, something that is within our frame of refference like scientific study. Maybe some civilization would be happy to let us think that while they really want something else. Even if it's something harmless. I suppose that could be called deception, but manipulation is the word that came to mind.
 
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Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
Either way I'd say the comparison is only apt for the very smartest animals since there is not much to manipulate about a moo cow or housecat or whatever.

We manipulated moo cows into evolving milk and meat factories. We manipulate house cats to be nice to us and keep us company (although some housecat owners might dispute that last bit lol).
 

Crayon

Member
We manipulated moo cows into evolving milk and meat factories. We manipulate house cats to be nice to us and keep us company (although some housecat owners might dispute that last bit lol).

Well there you go. Whether it's our primary motive is up in the air but I agree those could be seen as manipulations, too.
 

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
Well there you go. Whether it's our primary motive is up in the air but I agree those could be seen as manipulations, too.

Our primary motive is up in the air? I think it's pretty clear what our primary motive is. We need food, and beef and milk tastes good. We like entertainment, and cats are fun.
 

Crayon

Member
Our primary motive is up in the air? I think it's pretty clear what our primary motive is. We need food, and beef and milk tastes good. We like entertainment, and cats are fun.

Dude I'm trying to roll with you here. There's nothing to fight about so I politely conceded to you twice trying to make a converation out of it.

Is our primary motive manipulation?
 

Crayon

Member
Bro I'm not fighting with you, I'm carrying along the train of thought further.

Okay in that case, let's back it up a few steps. I don't know if the analogy with us and animals always works.

When I was saying was, I can't think of any motivation that sensibly fits the decades of reports. The most popular explanation seems to be scientific study, but something seems weird to me about that. For instance, while I don't see any strong connection to cattle mutilation and crop circles, there are plenty of reports associating a UFO sighting with those. It's at least part of the lore. If that were the case, that just doesn't fit with passive scientific study.

The biggest thing for me would be crashes. The idea that they would crash, at least without having some sort of self-destruct after the fact, is crazy to me. It's more likely it would be something like bait. Now that could be part of some kind of study, but not a passive observation. It would be a big deal to dump some technology on us. Very disruptive to our natural state. The only thing I can think of that fits would be a civilization interacting with us and letting us think one thing while they do another.

And that's really all I got if you want to take it from there!
 

Ironbunny

Member
"Pentagon has released declassified UFO videos and reports on a new website:

Welcome to the website for the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO). Our team of experts is leading the U.S. government’s efforts to address Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) using a rigorous scientific framework and a data-driven approach. Since its establishment in July 2022, AARO has taken important steps to improve data collection, standardize reporting requirements, and mitigate the potential threats to safety and security posed by UAP. We look forward to using this site to regularly update the public about AARO’s work and findings, and to provide a mechanism for UAP reporting. Thank you for visiting.

- Dr. Sean Kirkpatrick, Director"

 

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
Okay in that case, let's back it up a few steps. I don't know if the analogy with us and animals always works.

Why not? It's the only other example of a higher intelligence species that harnesses technology meaningfully interacting with a lesser intelligent species that uses lower forms of technology.

When I was saying was, I can't think of any motivation that sensibly fits the decades of reports. The most popular explanation seems to be scientific study, but something seems weird to me about that. For instance, while I don't see any strong connection to cattle mutilation and crop circles, there are plenty of reports associating a UFO sighting with those. It's at least part of the lore. If that were the case, that just doesn't fit with passive scientific study.

The biggest thing for me would be crashes. The idea that they would crash, at least without having some sort of self-destruct after the fact, is crazy to me. It's more likely it would be something like bait. Now that could be part of some kind of study, but not a passive observation. It would be a big deal to dump some technology on us. Very disruptive to our natural state. The only thing I can think of that fits would be a civilization interacting with us and letting us think one thing while they do another.

And that's really all I got if you want to take it from there!

Your flaw is assuming that there even is a motivation, which assumes that there is an agent behind the motivation, clouded by the fact that you are enamored with the idea that this agent could be a hyper-intelligent space faring race of aliens. You are taking reports of crashes, cattle mutilations, and crop circles at face value without acknowledging the more plausible assumptions - that this is a combination of misunderstandings, miscommunications, hallucinations, mass hysteria/delusions, hoaxes, and confirmation bias. All of these things have a long and documented history of being real and contributing to the phenomenon of humans believing things that can't be proven in reality.

In other words, a boatload of contradictory and confusing input information should lead you primarily to the working conclusion of "this is probably bullshit", not "gee, this alien civilization sure behaves weirdly".
 
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Crayon

Member
Why not? It's the only other example of a higher intelligence species that harnesses technology meaningfully interacting with a lesser intelligent species that uses lower forms of technology.



Your flaw is assuming that there even is a motivation, which assumes that there is an agent behind the motivation, clouded by the fact that you are enamored with the idea that this agent could be a hyper-intelligent space faring race of aliens. You are taking reports of crashes, cattle mutilations, and crop circles at face value without acknowledging the more plausible assumptions - that this is a combination of misunderstandings, miscommunications, hallucinations, mass hysteria/delusions, hoaxes, and confirmation bias. All of these things have a long and documented history of being real and contributing to the phenomenon of humans believing things that can't be proven in reality.

In other words, a boatload of contradictory and confusing input information should lead you primarily to the working conclusion of "this is probably bullshit", not "gee, this alien civilization sure behaves weirdly".

I tried to have that conversation and not conflict you said you wanted. I tried to make clear everything was the loosest speculation and it's hard to make all the weird lore fit into an alien hypothesis. You only have one gear on this. No big. I hope it's a clean slate whenever we get to talking about other subjects.
 

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
I tried to have that conversation and not conflict you said you wanted.
I'm still having that conversation.

I tried to make clear everything was the loosest speculation and it's hard to make all the weird lore fit into an alien hypothesis.

I gave you my train of thought that helps to reconcile all of this. You are free to agree/disagree and then give your reasons why. I would like to hear them.

You only have one gear on this.

I wouldn't characterize it that way, but even so, why is that a problem?

I hope it's a clean slate whenever we get to talking about other subjects.
Bro I'm not fighting with you.
 

Crayon

Member
I wouldn't characterize it that way, but even so, why is that a problem?

I think it's fair that I expound on that. I'm not talking about your overall position on the thing. I'm talking about this:

clouded by the fact that you are enamored with the idea that this agent could be a hyper-intelligent space faring race of aliens

Sorry, no can do. I have no confident enough position required to orient a a conversation that way. I've said many times in the past that the only thing I am confident of is that there is weird shit flying around. The rest is (wild?) speculation and attempting engagement with whatever ideas are floating around. Like I said; that's all I got.
 

sono

Gold Member
I have no confident enough position required to orient a a conversation that way. I've said many times in the past that the only thing I am confident of is that there is weird shit flying around.
This is the same position as the United States White House are saying publically; they are taking it seriously and investigating

John Kirby:

 

sono

Gold Member
Grain of salt and all, but I think some of these witness accounts are interesting. Some have extremely similar descriptions like the occupants and the object turning on its side.




This lady maintain her story until death.

What reason would she have to make up a story like that ? None ? only downside - she was ridiculed for years.

She described it as a mexican hat, which reminded me of this (awesome "The Why Files" channel) vldeo

 

sono

Gold Member
"Pentagon has released declassified UFO videos and reports on a new website:

Welcome to the website for the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO). Our team of experts is leading the U.S. government’s efforts to address Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) using a rigorous scientific framework and a data-driven approach. Since its establishment in July 2022, AARO has taken important steps to improve data collection, standardize reporting requirements, and mitigate the potential threats to safety and security posed by UAP. We look forward to using this site to regularly update the public about AARO’s work and findings, and to provide a mechanism for UAP reporting. Thank you for visiting.

Pentagon Fires UAP Boss | AARO Launches UFO Website




(This is from Chris Lehto's channel. He spent 8 years as an F-16 pilot; retired in 2020)
 
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sono

Gold Member
There is some interesting "hard data" published on the new (otherwise very brief!) aaro website
aarop5dqw.png
 
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Crayon

Member
This is the same position as the United States White House are saying publically; they are taking it seriously and investigating

John Kirby:



That's all I was ever able to come up with. All these years later it's nice to hear them say it. I'm not convinced they know a whole lot more than that. I think the claims of the recovery program are super sketch but they should definitely keep digging into it because at this point there is nothing normal going on. That includes every non-alien explanation, too.
 

Romulus

Member
But ufos are only in the USA!


Yet another official government hearing.





- This happened in Brazil in 1986.

- Military personnel as well as citizens witnessed the event.

- It was officially documented and the Brazilian Air Force gave multiple press conferences

- Uruguay also reported these events.

- 120 navy personnel witnessed a UFO. Many had to receive further assistance due to the emotional impact of the the sighting.

- Some objects could move in excess of Mach 15.

- Presence of "mothership" 1.5 kilometers in diameter and was accompanied by many smaller objects.




Just seems odd that every single person involved in this is a UFO wacko or lying/mistaken.
 
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sono

Gold Member
The reasons we are told that the Americans are less forthcoming are either or both of
a. The stories are might cause embarrassment of the capabilities of the usaf which are supposed to be the most advanced
and/or
b. they DO have crashed UFOs which they are reverse engineering or have done so for sometime so the truth is harder and harder to admit the longer it goes on..
 
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I've been into the UFO phenomenon on all my life ever since I was a little kid.

I used to be very open-minded but I'm becoming more and more skeptical.

All this talk of disclosure and even with all these tic tac videos I feel we're going nowhere.

Nothing is surprising. People in high positions are even lying about things. Maybe the whole idea of a UFO cover up is itself used to cover something else up.

I have less and less faith as we go on.
 

sono

Gold Member
I just watched this very good and well thought out video. Dr. Richard Roberts discusses that the evidence now is overwhelming there is alien life visiting this planet, discusses the preconceived ideas of the press


 

sono

Gold Member
If you havent heard or read about the Varginha Brazil UFO incident it is likened to Brazils Roswell, except that it happened in 1996 and lots of witnesses are still alive. Norad, Brazil military and the USAF were involved and attempted cover up for years, but now witnesses are speaking openly. Life form left the crash site. and was seen in the town. Nitrogen/Hydrogen/ Amonia based life from another planet ?

James Fox made a 2 hour film in 2022 about it, You can watch the film for Free in the USA (my friend from europe said set vpn to NY)
https://www.crackle.com/watch/18e4fbbc-c932-456c-9128-c8877cc04fe5/moment-of-contact

The film is slow going but worth watching if you have 2 hours

The whyfiles also did an episode about it



its a cracking story..
 

sono

Gold Member
Here is a compelling 2022 presentation to the Brazillian Senate of events that took place in Brazil and adjacent Uraguary , translated to English

 
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sono

Gold Member
this seems way more likely than a grand conspiracy dating back to the 40s
Our civilisation builds nuclear warheads enough capable of destroying the planet and all life.

The paranoia is real. WIth that background imagine such people believing they had come across adanced technology, far in advance of other countries.

The 40s had the terrible second world war
 
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I don't see a contradiction in that these aliens have known-physics defying propulsion, including FTL, but still crash and can be detected and shot down.

We don't know how this stuff works, it is equally possible that these aliens are only really advanced in propulsion and lacking elsewhere as anything else. For all we know they've never had to contend with war machines.

Its like that short story by Harry Turtledove called "The Road Not Taken". Gravity manipulation and thus FTL is an absurdly simple principle and most civilizations discover it very early in their development and it causes them to stagnate scientifically due to its esoteric nature. Humanity for whatever reason did not discover it so we continued to advance in other ways. Aliens who think they are hot shit because they discovered it relatively late (their age of sale) show up on Earth not having detected the use of gravity manipulation thinking its going to be easy picking and end up getting their asses slapped and inadvertently give humanity gravity manipulation.
 
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Romulus

Member
I don't see a contradiction in that these aliens have known-physics defying propulsion, including FTL, but still crash and can be detected and shot down.

We don't know how this stuff works, it is equally possible that these aliens are only really advanced in propulsion and lacking elsewhere as anything else. For all we know they've never had to contend with war machines.

Its like that short story by Harry Turtledove called "The Road Not Taken". Gravity manipulation and thus FTL is an absurdly simple principle and most civilizations discover it very early in their development and it causes them to stagnate scientifically due to its esoteric nature. Humanity for whatever reason did not discover it so we continued to advance in other ways. Aliens who think they are hot shit because they discovered it relatively late (their age of sale) show up on Earth not having detected the use of gravity manipulation thinking its going to be easy picking and end up getting their asses slapped and inadvertently give humanity gravity manipulation.

That's pretty much what Grusch is saying. He believes they're not much more advanced than us, essentially putting most of their skill points in space travel vs war and whatever else we have ours in.

I don't buy that. The reason is that there are extremely solid accounts going back to WW2. So they were traveling to another solar system while we were using planes with propellers? lol Pretty massive disparity there, not to mention all the advancements their space program might have contributed to their everyday life.

Not to mention, that's just assuming one civilization is visiting us. That seems very unlikely too.

I just find it very unlikely they've put everything into space travel and everything else is "pretty much on par" with us. Grusch is speculating of course.

Overall, I do like Grusch and Fravor, they seem to be the opposite of Corbell, Lazar and all those other UFO clowns.
 
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this seems way more likely than a grand conspiracy dating back to the 40s
I remember backing around 2012 or something I had brought up Michio Kaku and everyone replied back that he's nothing but a nutcase.

I also said I had an open mind and I got slammed and piled on about that.

This forum has changed for the better it seems.

I don't know if you were in this forum at the time Romulus Romulus but it was not easy having an open mind.
 
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Romulus

Member
I remember backing around 2012 or something I had brought up Michio Kaku and everyone replied back that he's nothing but a nutcase.

I also said I had an open mind and I got slammed and piled on about that.

This forum has changed for the better it seems.

I don't know if you were in this forum at the time Romulus Romulus but it was not easy having an open mind.

I wasn't here back then. But why were they insulted by an open mind?

As we move through time, we start to slowly chip away at what reality actually is. I mean 150 years ago most of us would be using religion to explain most everything and would have been insulted by any outside opinion. Literally, myself included because it was ingrained in our society.
Now we use science. Unfortunately, that isn't much better in its current primitive state. It will eventually yield the results we're looking for but it's so incomplete in terms of understanding the universe. We don't even know if there are multiple universes and have no idea what dark matter is, something that makes up the majority of the universe. Clueless.
 

Happosai

Hold onto your panties
Ah yes, the magical extraterrestrial drones. Where can we empirically observe these drones? Nowhere, you say, just hear about them from occasional eyewitness accounts and vague splotches in photos?

Same BS as it's always been until compelling evidence is demonstrated.
I've tired myself out from saying that last part. Youtube and social media really gave new home to all this too. Just like parapsychology. Never hard evidence aside from lens flare, dust and 'I sarr it' accounts.
 

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
Now we use science. Unfortunately, that isn't much better in its current primitive state. It will eventually yield the results we're looking for but it's so incomplete in terms of understanding the universe. We don't even know if there are multiple universes and have no idea what dark matter is, something that makes up the majority of the universe. Clueless.

Do you have a better method than science?
 

Romulus

Member
The Mexican government is not saying these are aliens right? They're just allowing these guys the opportunity for 3rd party testing? That was my understanding.
 

Smoke6

Member
How embarrassing
So you’re saying you have first hand knowledge otherwise? Cuz I’m getting sick and tired of calling anything and everything bullshit when they don’t know themselves!

It may or may not be alien but they’re given the world the chance to find out for themselves and if you have seen these beings before and know exactly what they are then feel fucking free to elaborate or just stop it with the bullshit!

You’re doing exactly what the rest of the world has been doing for years and for once can we just be skeptical with a slight of “hope it is” before we just start playing armchair alien experts to shit?
 
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