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[duhmetree]

I must say, it puzzles me that revenue concern exists only in relation to Microsoft. "If they're not on PlayStation 5, they're leaving half the money on the table!" is the cry, while ignoring that "If they're not on Xbox, they're leaving half the money on the table!" equally applies to Sony. And, yet, when it comes to every PlayStation exclusive, being an exclusive is trumpeted as a good thing, and revenue concerns are nowhere to be seen. Very puzzling.
Can't speak for anyone else, but I tend not to worry about the revenue of a trillion dollar multi-national corporation that's consistently been one of the wealthiest companies in the entire world for the last fifty years. I think they're gonna be ok.

Sony did not buy a massive 3rd party dev/publisher and cut off a larger install base. There's going to be a transition period. Zenimax relies on revenue from MULTI PLAT sales. Playstation ecosystem is over 2x the size of Xbox. Microsoft will need to supplement/subsidize their Studios. Furthermore, Microsoft is promoting GamePass, so there's no $70 sale per unit anymore, its $10-15 for ALL TITLES. ALL 23 STUDIOS. Like I said, there's going to be a transition period... Should be exciting and scary at the same time for the Xbox division. This will essentially make or break Spencer. There's no in-between here....

What's the break even subscriber number?

Sony could benefit greatly from double dipping. I always thought Sony should be on PC after an allotted amount of time. HZD is probably the beginning of this.

 

[MrFunSocks]

Spider-Man 2 will probably come to Xbox series X, right guys? Think how much revenue Sony would get!

So many people are going to be disappointed here lol. This isn’t the Minecraft situation. Minecraft was an existing game on other platforms. It is a top 2 selling game of all time. That isn’t the same as starfield or doom 3 or elder scrolls 6.

 

[Redlight]

After they have everyone on Xbox (40M) joined up, where do they get more people?

Also this doesn't consider the price of content... I pointed out in a post that to fund 30 studios to make games is about 5 billion, then they need other 3rd parties to provide other content plus loads of other expenses.

Xbox games won't be on PS5. If they need it, MS will get the money from the Sony audience by turning them into Xbox players.

 

[Bogroll]

I think the smarter move would be to make them available on Gamepass and then release them as full price titles on Playstation and Nintendo. Maybe give a 6 month windows, but if they sell 2M on a PS console that's 100M of revenue.

This makes sense to me but i could see Starfield being a Xbox/PC exclusive as it could be a system seller and see how it goes for a year. If its not pulling more customers in, announce it on PS5 out of the blue.

 

[Balducci30]

Xbox games won't be on PS5. If they need it, MS will get the money from the Sony audience by turning them into Xbox players.

I bought both consoles, but people thinking these big games from Zenimax will be coming to ps5 without AT LEAST a year delay are in straight up denial. Microsoft isn’t Sony - they are absolutely rolling in it I wouldn’t worry about their profits too much. Also look at any streaming service like Netflix etc. look at their profit margin. Doesn’t seem like anything on paper. There’s a whole lot more to this than people seem to be accounting for

 

[Kagey K]

While this is probably true, it would be a bold move to drop 55% to 60% of their (Bethesda / ZeniMax’s) console revenue.

Investors am cry.

Do investors cry when they see the amount of corporate tax payable? In the end it’s money they wont get (lost money for all intents and purposes) the difference being a new asset can generate money eventually again. Tax money is gone forever.

Based on that post Id say you have very little clue of what actual investors are looking for in one of the richest FAANG companies.

 

[Blond]

Gonna be interesting to see if Gamepass affects the quality of Xbox first party titles. Gears 5 microtransactions and Halo Craigfinite could be a sign of things to come...

The linux gaming initiative didn't suddenly die for anything, even going as far to ban linux players. I love that people say that PC is an open platform but when looking at the options everything's Microsoft + Steam, headed by an ex Microsoft executive.

Windows 10 code is there that clearly shows it going the walled garden route and Gamepass will be as much as a cable bill in a couple years.

 

[wolffy71]

*edit* This is old. My bad

 

[StreetsofBeige]

You were saying....

There it is.

 

[Gavon West]

You were saying....

This is old. 2019. Still, I dont think anything's changed since then.

 

[Balducci30]

There it is.

I mean no shit

 

[MH3M3D]

Bro, just buy a Series S in a few years if you really want TES. It will be cheap enough.

Why even bother? Xcloud will be on toasters by the time it releases.

 

[duhmetree]

You were saying....

Using a year old article to prove a point is suspect at best.

The Big Boy titles should and most likely will be exclusive. The others I'm not sure. Time will tell

 

[12Dannu123]

There'll always be somebody with hotter IP. its the one thing that can be predicted reliably, because it always happens. Nobody stays on top forever.

To be truthful I really have no idea how MS' masterplan is going to work out. They can't subsidize it forever and its a service that can only get more expensive to run. Its a great deal now for the consumer, no doubt, but at some point they will have to start clawing back some of their investment.

Whats more if it proves successful, then what's going to be the reaction from the rest of the market? We have 2 big content providers in Sony and Nintendo who aren't going to go away easily, and we have megabuck corporations like Amazon and Google with the infrastructure but no IP sniffing around already.

Netflix is finally going to be self-funding in 2022 and will be free cash flow positive and during that time they exploded from 30 Million to 200 Million subscribers. Microsoft is going the same route, yes they will deep in the red for many years, but they will growing rapidly as a result.

 

[Jigsaah]

Xbox said on a case by case basis.

To me that translates to, "Let's see if we need leverage when TES and Starfield are ready".

Fact is Microsoft has not decided yet and probably wont until after the beginning of next year

 

[TheGreatWhiteShark]

Using a year old article to prove a point is suspect at best.

 

[wolffy71]

Using a year old article to prove a point is suspect at best.

The Big Boy titles should and most likely will be exclusive. The others I'm not sure. Time will tell

Hmm yeah seems dumb for them to tweet it now. Still doubt they wont be exclusive but this isnt prove of that.

 

[Maogp]

So MS are trying to battle Amazon, Google while trying to keep Sony and Nintendo in check?

Sounds to me like trying to fight too many battles. This could be a potential problem. Spraeding your resources like that needs alot of time and investment. MS 1st parties are still relatively new and it could take years for them to get to the level of Sony and Nintendo. Also you have GamePass that they are trying to grow. How sustainable is having them put their AAA titles on GamePass for a dollar ?

When do we get to a point where the prices gets jacked up because AAA games are not cheap to produce.

Too many battles? No for Microsoft, a multi billion company that want to reach the top of gaming industry in every level. They HAVE TO fight all the battles in their way.

 

[Orky]

Are we still in the denial phase?

 

[Hawking Radiation]

Too many battles? No for Microsoft, a multi billion company that want to reach the top of gaming industry in every level. They HAVE TO fight all the battles in their way.

Should have given a little more thought to and reworded my initial post but I do agree with your point view.

 

[Riky]

I think its become an strategic obssession to succeed here. They're already 7.5B down, and if you look at their numbers for that division yearly, it will take a lot of years to recoup that money.

And what are the expenses for the year you are subtracting from those numbers.


and start with an expense of 7.5 billion

It really is funny how little people understand about accounting.

Simple explanation, if you buy a house for 300,000 have you "lost" 300,000? Do you need to recoup 300,000? Or do you have an asset worth 300,000 that may increase in value?

It's a balance sheet asset not an expense.

 

[chikydee]

It seems microsoft is committed to making xbox game pass a success, I wouldn't be surprised if they made bethesda games MS exclusives to further that agenda. Just think of how many people would go out and buy an xbox and subscribe to game pass just for the chance to play TES6 day 1.

 

[notseqi]

Trying to gain a better position in EU? According to a quick google search PS4 outsold Xbox 3:1 (vgchartz). If something could pull customers over it would be big name games.
I don't believe they will do exclusive though, some studios are too big for the install base.

 

[Balducci30]

Trying to gain a better position in EU? According to a quick google search PS4 outsold Xbox 3:1 (vgchartz). If something could pull customers over it would be big name games.
I don't believe they will do exclusive though, some studios are too big for the install base.

The install base being xcloud gamers, pc gamers and Xbox gamers - they will make it as easy as possible to get into the gamepass system - and people will get into it for these games

 

[notseqi]

The install base being xcloud gamers, pc gamers and Xbox gamers - they will make it as easy as possible to get into the gamepass system - and people will get into it for these games

Yep. I think they are letting up on competing with Sony in the traditional way, less so than Nintendo does, but in a good way.
'You can game on our console, pricing makes it attractive. If you don't, at least buy our games, even if we release them a little later on competing consoles.'

 

[disap.ed]

I think this will be decided on a game-per-game base. Some will be exclusives, some will be timed exclusives and some will be released multiplatform on day 1. Just like it happened with Minecraft, Ori etc.

 

[TheGreatWhiteShark]

Trying to gain a better position in EU? According to a quick google search PS4 outsold Xbox 3:1 (vgchartz). If something could pull customers over it would be big name games.
I don't believe they will do exclusive though, some studios are too big for the install base.

this is the gaming market today

this is the way microsoft has positioned itself on the market right now

also, that 28% refers to a fully saturated console market. when next-gen happens, the % is comparatively insignificant
and sony's % on that console pie, is what is left after you subtract nintendo's and microsoft's

 

[notseqi]

this is the gaming market today

[...]

also, that 28% refers to a fully saturated console market. when next-gen happens, the % is comparatively insignificant
and sony's % on that console pie, is what is left after you subtract nintendo's and microsoft's

I applaud them for their business moves. But what do you do in markets where you can't shift 'enough' consoles, i.e. comparatively low market share? There are still R&D and other up-front costs to offset and I think, at least for their console market share, they have done the right moves for next gen.

I'd like to see how they spread and offset costs and straight up losses through their departments concerning console-related sales only.

 

[Sweep14]

Forget it.

 

[TheGreatWhiteShark]

I applaud them for their business moves. But what do you do in markets where you can't shift 'enough' consoles, i.e. comparatively low market share? There are still R&D and other up-front costs to offset and I think, at least for their console market share, they have done the right moves for next gen.

I'd like to see how they spread and offset costs and straight up losses through their departments concerning console-related sales only.

Gamepass alone, before the bethesda acquisition was a multi billion investment per year.
On the console front, with the xbone one/s being their only miss-happs, (og xbox, 360 and the recent xbone x was great) they are doing very good imo. They come well positioned this gen with two console products, one that is most powerful option, and the other that is the most affordable entry to nextgen games.
I dont think we will be seeing 2013 console numbers here, not by a long shot.
But even if that, take a good look at the pie chart above. there is a fully saturated pc market and a rapidly growing non-pc/console market that they are tapping into. They already have gone through the phase of communicating that they are console-pc, and have streamlined their game factories for parallel development too. they are set.
If you are talking regional console markets, I guess ms being a multinational does not really care, as long a its doing good elsewhere. probably they could invest some more in the regions where their console market share is "not enough", but again, gamepass value here is the big draw, and that is universal imo.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

I don't think the future Bethesda's game will come to PS5. Better spend resources and time on some other stuff rather than porting to PS5.

One of the notable features of game pass is that it continuously generates money - just like with big corporations money will come from various sources and the money brought by a successful title will compensate losses with unsuccessful. In addition with GP the definition of the successful or unsuccessful title has no meaning - while on the subscription you can play ANY game regardless of the reviews so even the games that failed in reviews might gain more popularity than by selling the games.

Even taking 10 million subscribers per month paying 10 $ - 100 million $ per month. In one year it is 1.2 billion. As long as the number of subscriptions is growing the revenue will increase and will be immense. Netflix generates 20 bil per year.

 

[RokkanStoned]

In my opinion, making TESVI timed exclusive for Xbox Series X would accomplish all their goals. They want people on gamepass, whether on PC or Xbox. So there's little in the interest of that goal that comes with publishing on PS5. Personally I'd believe that it depends on the circumstances. If Xbox is selling badly, they'd definitely keep it exclusive, because it's important for their gamepass plan to have enough Xbox consoles out. If Xbox sells really well, then they would feel less pressured and possibly allow simultaneous release across all consoles.
A new IP like Starfield, I wonder if they'd release on all consoles, just in order to establish it as a new IP alongside Fallout and TES.
If Sony allowed gamepass on PS5, then things would be even more complicated, although likely to make them available to PS5 like on Xbox Series X due to how important gamepass is to their strategy.

Anyone using Minecraft as an example are being ignorant. Minecraft was already ubiquitous, very little to do with that and likely not to have as much pull as people think. Personally if a Minecraft 2 ever comes, then I have no doubt that Microsoft might just outright omit PS5 if the circumstances require it.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

This makes sense to me but i could see Starfield being a Xbox/PC exclusive as it could be a system seller and see how it goes for a year. If its not pulling more customers in, announce it on PS5 out of the blue.

There is valid arguments to be made either way, but you are correct in that its really good as a backup plan if they don't pull in Gamepass numbers like they are hoping. They are betting HARD on Gamepass.

 

[MilkyJoe]

Trying to gain a better position in EU? According to a quick google search PS4 outsold Xbox 3:1 (vgchartz). If something could pull customers over it would be big name games.
I don't believe they will do exclusive though, some studios are too big for the install base.

You forgot that Microsoft has two platforms, three if you count xCloud, with one of them vastly outnumbering the Playstation install base.

 

[DavidGzz]

You get one person to give you $15 a month or you make a sell to that person and receive 30% of the cut on PS5. Easy choice. You pump up your subscription base because that will make you MUCH more money in the end. Making a measly cut and helping your competition is nowhere near as good as someone subbing for the next 5-7 years.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

You forgot that Microsoft has two platforms, three if you count xCloud, with one of them vastly outnumbering the Playstation install base.

Yeah, now comparing directly consoles doesn't make sense. I think we should look at GamePass as it merged with Gold anyway. There is no direct comparison anymore, after all those who play XCloud might not even have Xbox.

 

[notseqi]

You forgot that Microsoft has two platforms, three if you count xCloud, with one of them vastly outnumbering the Playstation install base.

I was concerned about console, 1st party strategy and that in regards to the wider spectrum Spencer mentioned servicing in the future.

Edit: this from further up: 'You can game on our console, pricing makes it attractive. If you don't, at least buy our games, even if we release them a little later on competing consoles.'

 

[MilkyJoe]

I was concerned about console, 1st party strategy and that in regards to the wider spectrum Spencer mentioned servicing in the future.

Edit: this from further up: 'You can game on our console, pricing makes it attractive. If you don't, at least buy our games, even if we release them a little later on competing consoles.'

Well you'll have to see where that goes. But as far as you know he might be hinting at gamepass on PS, then you got to have Sony agree to that

 

[Damigos]

Truth is even if bethesda games go exclusive to xbox ecosystem it will not change my console of choice.
Sony’s exclusives can only be found in one place

 

[DeepEnigma]

Do investors cry when they see the amount of corporate tax payable? In the end it’s money they wont get (lost money for all intents and purposes) the difference being a new asset can generate money eventually again. Tax money is gone forever.

Based on that post Id say you have very little clue of what actual investors are looking for in one of the richest FAANG companies.

They cry when revenue drops, hence why stock prices dip when you there is a sharp decline.

Of course they are more privy to information than we are, so we sit and wait to see what becomes of this.

 

[mckmas8808]

So MS are trying to battle Amazon, Google while trying to keep Sony and Nintendo in check?

Sounds to me like trying to fight too many battles. This could be a potential problem. Spraeding your resources like that needs alot of time and investment. MS 1st parties are still relatively new and it could take years for them to get to the level of Sony and Nintendo. Also you have GamePass that they are trying to grow. How sustainable is having them put their AAA titles on GamePass for a dollar ?

When do we get to a point where the prices gets jacked up because AAA games are not cheap to produce.

You "might" be right here. There are limits on just how much MS can spend to win this battle that they have on multiple fronts.

Anyone who says they know for certain if future Bethesda games will be multi-platform or not is lying. I doubt even MS is fully sure how they will handle this and will be based on a bunch of current unknown factors.

100% truth. MS has an idea of what they want to do, but there's no way they know for certain what they are going to do with their Zenimax\Bethesda future games. At the end of the day, they are probably going to do whatever makes them the most profit.

 

[Clear]

Netflix is finally going to be self-funding in 2022 and will be free cash flow positive and during that time they exploded from 30 Million to 200 Million subscribers. Microsoft is going the same route, yes they will deep in the red for many years, but they will growing rapidly as a result.

As I've been saying since the whole notion of "Netflix for games" was put forward, there are major differences in consumption patterns for games versus movies, at least not in the sense of console/PC games as we know them.

Based on that I don't see growth patterns being comparable.

Which isn't to say that I don't think gamepass can't be tremendously successful, I just believe its going to develop differently and the way the market as a whole reacts to this progression/evolution in distribution is going to be a big part of it.

These are some big questions, and anyone who's super-bullish one way or the other at this stage I doubt has really thought through the complexity of the issue.

 

[notseqi]

Well you'll have to see where that goes. But as far as you know he might be hinting at gamepass on PS, then you got to have Sony agree to that

What a hurdle. Mighty squabbles await us about about differing gamepass-access per console should all that come about.