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French Hardware Sales YTD/LTD by GFK (PS3 + 3DS >60% of Market 2013)

M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Yes, 31st is going to be a good day for 3DS, with high probabilities of Q1 shipment being better than last year's one by a good amount, but Wii U...oh God, I'm scared to see how much they shipped.
 
P

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
B.O.O.M said:
Yep I can't wait to see how short they will fall behind the 9mil target
Click to expand...

To be fair, 9 million is the goal for March/April, but everytime I see it mentioned I just start laughing out loud at what a ridiculous fictional target it is by any stretch of the imagination. I don't think even Kart will be out by then, if only maybe for a couple of weeks?

Wonder if we'll get a "please understand / these revised targets" sob-story in a week.
 
P

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Beysus said:
Remember this?

Have they even sold 3.5mln units ww by now? Their initial 5.5mln target is even more sad.
Click to expand...

It would take some creative warehouse stuffing for them to have shipped many more beyond the 3.5 mill. I seem to remember people ballparking the sold not shipped number at something like 2.6 million or whatever back then so... er...?

I guess the new White premium pack will count for something, but then they were also actively recalling Basic packs from America at the same time. So no idea how that will all square out.
 
V

Visualante2

Member
Don't a lot of people claim France as Nintendo's strongest footing in Europe? They can't be doing much better elsewhere...
B.O.O.M said:
Yep I can't wait to see how short they will fall behind the 9mil target
Click to expand...
They will continue to massage expectations downwards throughout Q3 and Q4
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Pie and Beans said:
Ha ha ha, I was even over-estimating it. Me. Over-estimating the WiiU.


31st is going to be eye gougy bad. Iwata having to say with a straight face "we've not... sold through launch shipment..."
Click to expand...

I'm predicting the absolute maximum that Nintendo could report for Q1 2013 is Wii U unit sales of 4.25 million between April and June (800K shipped in three months / 267K shipped per month).

And that's at the absolute top end of the range...

I also expect a downward revision of their Wii U targets. It is impossible for the Wii U to hit 12.45 million units shipped by March 31st, 2014.
 
T

The Abominable Snowman

Member
360 is doing quite a bit better in Europe than I thought. For some reason I believed Europe and Japan were firmly in Sony's pocket and smaller Western markets like Mexico, Canada, and Australia were firmly Microsoft balancing it out.

I absolutely refuse to discuss Wii U anymore. I'm EA right now.
 
P

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Aquamarine said:
I'm predicting the absolute maximum that Nintendo could report for Q1 2013 is Wii U unit sales of 4.25 million between April and June (800K shipped in three months / 267K shipped per month).

And that's at the absolute top end of the range...

I also expect a downward revision of their Wii U targets. It is impossible for the Wii U to hit 12.45 million units shipped by March 31st, 2013.
Click to expand...

I think the 9 million was like, the running total they expected to reach, not on top of the 3 mill already shipped. I could see them maybe having shipped 4 million, but thats a whole lotta stock in warehouses when retailers sure aren't crying out for re-ups.

White Premium hasn't been announced outside of Japan yet has it? Could see that being a tidbit. Hell, if anything maybe the 31st will be the "okay so we have to price-drop now" date in time for western Pikmin (or just a little bit after since thats the 26th in Europe oh dear) and W101.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Pie and Beans said:
I think the 9 million was like, the running total they expected to reach, not on top of the 3 mill already shipped. I could see them maybe having shipped 4 million, but thats a whole lotta stock in warehouses when retailers sure aren't crying out for re-ups.

White Premium hasn't been announced outside of Japan yet has it? Could see that being a tidbit. Hell, if anything maybe the 31st will be the "okay so we have to price-drop now" date in time for western Pikmin and W101.
Click to expand...

Nope. Nintendo actually forecasted the Wii U to ship nine million MORE consoles between April 1st, 2013 and March 31st, 2014. So 12.45 million consoles shipped in total.

Supposing Nintendo manages ~4 million consoles shipped in Q1, that's 8.45 million they need to ship in 9 months.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Aquamarine said:
Nope. Nintendo actually forecasted the Wii U to ship nine million MORE consoles between April 1st, 2013 and March 31st, 2014. So 12.45 million consoles shipped in total.

Supposing Nintendo manages ~4 million consoles shipped in Q1, that's 8.45 million they need to ship in 9 months.
Click to expand...

They will have a hard time shipping even 1M consoles in Q2, so they better have a hell of a Holiday :p
 
P

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Aquamarine said:
Nope. Nintendo actually forecasted the Wii U to ship nine million MORE consoles between April 1st, 2013 and March 31st, 2014. So 12.45 million consoles shipped in total.

Supposing Nintendo manages ~4 million consoles shipped in Q1, that's 8.45 million they need to ship in 9 months.
Click to expand...

ha ha ha ha ha oh my word.
 
P

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
SmokyDave said:
What? Are you suggesting that a greater than tenfold increase in sales is unlikely?

Have you forgotten that Wii Sports U is coming out at some point?!
Click to expand...

Girlfriend came in seeing me wipe tears out of my eyes and asked if I was okay. I am, but Iwata sure won't be!

So we're getting a revision downgrade next week for suresies OR nobody has the guts to even ask "so whats going on with that WiiU thing huh..."
 
K

kswiston

Member
SmokyDave said:
What? Are you suggesting that a greater than tenfold increase in sales is unlikely?

Have you forgotten that Wii Sports U is coming out at some point?!
Click to expand...

Haha. For some reason, this reminded me of the Wii Balance Board vs PS3 LTD race in 2008/2009. How times have changed.
 
R

Raist

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Nope. Nintendo actually forecasted the Wii U to ship nine million MORE consoles between April 1st, 2013 and March 31st, 2014. So 12.45 million consoles shipped in total.

Supposing Nintendo manages ~4 million consoles shipped in Q1, that's 8.45 million they need to ship in 9 months.
Click to expand...

At this point I'm not even sure they can reach 9M total by Apr 14 so... yeah... some revision is bound to happen.
 
S

Shiggy

Member
SmokyDave said:
What? Are you suggesting that a greater than tenfold increase in sales is unlikely?

Have you forgotten that Wii Sports U is coming out at some point?!
Click to expand...

Don't forget Wii Fit U! Just look at the 3DS, Kawashima's Brain Training and nintendogs+cats surpassed the sales of the DS versions within a month...or they didn't.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Raist said:
At this point I'm not even sure they can reach 9M total by Apr 14 so... yeah... some revision is bound to happen.
Click to expand...

Let's just hope Nintendo chooses a reasonable FY estimate and doesn't continue to revise it downwards again and again. Constant revisions kills investor confidence.


(Assuming 600K - 800K was shipped from April-June)


9 million FY forecast (8.3 million in 9 months) is unacceptable.

6 million FY forecast (5.3 million in 9 months) is a much more reasonable goal.
It would assume:
----1.1 million shipped between July-September (per the norm of Wii U's dramatic underperformance with growth)
----3.1 million shipped between October-December (equivalent to launch Wii U shipments)
----1.1 million shipped between January-March (regression to the norm pre-Mario Kart 8's April 2014 release)

^ Note: this is a GOAL, and it assumes the Wii U will grow moderately post-Pikmin 3 release. If the Wii U remains flat / static until November, 6 million FY becomes immediately unreasonable.
 
P

Palette Swap

Member
Honestly, going to any major retail outlet makes it quite clear: 3DS, PS3 and 360 clearly have the biggest shelf space.
Going by a couple of Fnacs I've been to, I'd say shelf space is distributed that way: 3DS ~ PS3 ~ 360 > DS ~ PC > WiiU > Wii ~ PSV ~ PSP
although WiiU is trending downwards and Wii might be a tad higher.
 
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