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[Dodecagon]

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research recently put out a pretty lengthy profile in VR and AR... Anyway, they have an estimate for the BoM Costs for each HMD

Oculus : $500
Vive : $400
PSVR : $350

I'm not willing to share the pdf or any more excerpts.

Facebook Oculus Rift: This HMD is reported to be designed to adapt to Windows 10 PCs. We assume it will leverage the CPU of the host PC for primary processing. However, it is reported that Oculus Rift will have a built-in processor to compute head- tracking and positioning tracking. What’s special about Oculus Rift is its “Constellation Positioning Tracker”, which consists of at least 40 IR LEDs on the HMD and a standalone camera station. The mechanism of this tracking system is that the LEDs emit infrared intermittently and the camera station, which sits in a corner of the room, can sense detailed changes of IR light from the HMD. As the LEDs face different directions, not only can the user’s position in a room be measured but also the user’s orientation

HTC Vive: This is a discrete HMD co-developed by HTC (2498.TW) and Valve. Similar to Oculus Rift, HTC Vive is reported to target PC users as well. As it mainly targets gamers, it adopts slightly superior displays to Oculus Rift. However, we do not assume HTC Vive to have a built-in chip and SSD storage as it has a different position tracking system from Oculus Rift, which lowers its BoM cost a bit. We also assume that HTC Vive’s lenses system is slightly cheaper than Oculus Rift as it might not adopt adjustable dial design. The “Lighthouse” tracking system, developed by Valve, has an opposite mechanism to the Constellation Tracking System. While the Constellation system emits light from the HMD to a standalone camera, the Lighthouse emits light from two standalone base stations to a number of light sensors on the HMD

Sony PlayStation VR: Unlike Oculus Rift and HTC Vive, PlayStation VR’s host system will be a PlayStation 4 game console. PlayStation VR’s positioning tracker technology is based on a PS (PlayStation) camera and LED lights on the HMD. To improve the quality of input signal, Sony will separate the digital signal processing units into a PU (processor unit) box, which can fine tune the digital signal from the game console and send to the HMD and a TV. We assume PlayStation VR to have the lowest BoM cost among the three discrete HMD models. The main gap comes from the fact that it does not have an independent sophisticated positioning tracking system as it is likely to leverage a PS camera to do the job. Similarly, being bundled with PS4, PlayStation VR does not have to come with its own processing units, storage, battery and controllers. These together drive the cost down.

BoM Costs: Oculus has said that it is selling Rift at its BoM cost and we expect Sony and HTC to follow suit. That said, we believe the BoM for all three of these offerings can decrease as the products gain scale. We estimate an average HMD discrete BoM of $350- 500, with Oculus at $500 (excluding our estimate for the cost of an Xbox controller and 2 games that come in the current package), HTC Vive at $400, and PSVR at $350.

ASPs: As we expect vendors to sell discrete HMDs at no gross profit to drive product adoption, we assume ASPs in line with our BoM estimate at $350-500 which excludes accessories and games that come in the retail package.

Hololens : $1500

Microsoft HoloLens: The 3 major components in a HoloLens are processors, displays (micro projection systems) and cameras. First, Microsoft is reported to have adopted Intel’s most powerful CPU, Atom Cherry Trail, which has a 2.7GHz clock rate and supports wireless charging. GPUs and HPUs substantially increase the total cost mainly because the chips are so unique that Microsoft is unlikely to gain economies of scale in the short run. Second, for displays, Microsoft uses two HD micro projectors (one for each side of the glass) to keep the lenses transparent. Google adopted liquid crystal on silicon (LCoS) display modules for Google Glass and Microsoft is reportedly using LCoS for HoloLens as well. Finally, HoloLens has at least 7 cameras to track the motion of the user and make sense of the surrounding environment.
BoM Costs: An integrated HMD typically has superior specs to consumer PCs or smart devices, which significantly increases the cost. For example, Microsoft’s yet to-be-released HoloLens would adopt three processing units, which together cost approximately $375 in our estimates. All-in, we estimate a BoM of $1,500.
ASPs: Taking HoloLens as a benchmark, we estimate integrated AR HMD models launched in 2016 would be priced at around $1,500.

 

[ZehDon]

Thank you for sharing. This matches some earlier estimates, if I'm remembering correctly. It also lends some weight to the PSVR's price point being similar to the PS4, which had a similar BOM at launch.

 

[Steel]

So it's really possible for the Vive to be significantly cheaper than the rift, huh?

Interesting.

 

[Hoje0308]

Cool, so if Sony ends up selling PSVR for $400, they'll be exactly where I'd expected them to be. Just need Ace Combat 7 and a flight stick to join together with the Top Gun soundtrack to complete my boyish fantasies.

 

[MayMay]

Interesting, thanks for sharing.

 

[Straight Edge]

So it's really possible for the Vive to be significantly cheaper than the rift, huh?

Interesting.

The price is for the HMD only. Won't you need 2 lighthouses for it to work as well?

 

[ArtHands]

So it's really possible for the Vive to be significantly cheaper than the rift, huh?

Interesting.

I believe its for the hmd only. meaning no cost of the motion controllers, tracking systems, ps cameras etc are included.

Also bunch of other costs like the manufacturers' employees salary, shipping and logistic warehouse

 

[Dodecagon]

So it's really possible for the Vive to be significantly cheaper than the rift, huh?

Interesting.

The estimates don't appear to include accessories (I.e. Controllers ) for any of the VR options.

But, the fact that the Vive htc HMD isn't as expensive probably comes down to the lack of integrated headphones and less 'lux' optics. Also their spatial positioning system is cited as being cheaper.

 

[Fret]

The price is for the HMD only. Won't you need 2 lighthouses for it to work as well?

The Lighthouses are apparently very cheap to make.

 

[Bsigg12]

So it's really possible for the Vive to be significantly cheaper than the rift, huh?

Interesting.

Heh, no. Even if these estimates are close, we know what Oculus is offering for $600 (the Rift itself, EVE Valkyrie and Luckys Tale, an Xbox One controller with the wireless adapter, the IR camera, and the little remote thing) . HTC with the Vive has to include the base stations and the controllers, and they won't sell it at cost because they're not in a position to not make money off this.

 

[KHarvey16]

So it's really possible for the Vive to be significantly cheaper than the rift, huh?

Interesting.

The price is for the HMD only. Won't you need 2 lighthouses for it to work as well?

Yeah, it must only be for the HMD as that's the only way the numbers make sense. These numbers leave $100 for the Rift's camera, remote, controller and case. The Vive will have the lighthouse stations, two VR controllers and who knows what else. It's also expected HTC won't be selling Vive at cost.

 

[2San]

The BOM is pretty high. Considering the R&D and selling costs let alone the controller, Oculus is pretty much losing money the first few years.

 

[Dodecagon]

Thank you for sharing. This matches some earlier estimates, if I'm remembering correctly. It also lends some weight to the PS4's price point being similar to the ps4, which had a similar BOM at launch.

PS4 BoM costs were a little higher, so a $400 HMD+Camera+2 Move Controllers+Game isn't too hard to imagine.

 

[Transistor]

Would love to see PSVR at $350, just to see all the crow eaten from the people saying it's gonna be $499 and stuff. I really could see them selling the PSVR for little or no profit to get it to be the VR leader

 

[Movalpolos]

So it's really possible for the Vive to be significantly cheaper than the rift, huh?

Interesting.

HMD only, I think?

 

[unknownstranger]

Edit: sorry double post.

 

[unknownstranger]

PS4 BoM costs were a little higher, so a $400 HMD+Camera+2 Move Controllers+Game isn't too hard to imagine.

$350 for only the headset (and processor unit) seems possible then.

 

[neptunes]

Would love to see PSVR at $350, just to see all the crow eaten from the people saying it's gonna be $499 and stuff. I really could see them selling the PSVR for little or no profit to get it to be the VR leader

They won't and there's no reason for them do such a thing. It would be so unwise, especially at the introductory part of its life cycle.

They have until the end of the PS4's life to lower the price, who in the console space are they even in a rush to beat?

 

[eyeball_kid]

Selling an accessory to the PS4 that's more expensive than the console itself? I mean, I trust the BoM speculation, but I just can't imagine that price point from a marketing POV. $299 or bust, even if they have to sell at a loss for the first year or two.

 

[Nightengale]

Selling an accessory to the PS4 that's more expensive than the console itself? I mean, I trust the BoM speculation, but I just can't imagine that price point from a marketing POV. $299 or bust, even if they have to sell at a loss for the first year or two.

The console's current RRP is $349.

Looking at the BoM, it's definitely possible that Sony would be willing to sell a standalone SKU at $349 for price parity with the console.

 

[eyeball_kid]

The console's current RRP is $349.

Looking at the BoM, it's definitely possible that Sony would be willing to sell a standalone SKU at $349 for price parity with the console.

Apologies, I saw an Amazon listing for $339. Regardless, there's a ton of people who just saved up and bought a PS4 last year. Now Sony will be asking them to shell out the same price again for an accessory that is unproven, is very difficult to demo without putting it on, and is a market segment that so far is attracting a very narrow audience? I'm not seeing gangbuster sales the first year at $350. Even at $299 it'd be a tough sell and would require some of the best advertising Sony has ever done, but at least the price would be more palatable for the majority of PS4 owners who aren't yet excited for VR.

 

[ZehDon]

PS4 BoM costs were a little higher, so a $400 HMD+Camera+2 Move Controllers+Game isn't too hard to imagine.

Ah, you're correct. The PS4's BoM was actually estimated at around $381, which means the launch price of US$399.00 had little if any profit in the box. Sony have said they're going to pricing the PSVR "like a console", so if BoM really is $350, $399 is most likely the price point they'll hit.

As for what that $399 nets you, I suspect Sony will rely on the Dual-shock 4 for the default input device. The light-bar was included for a reason, and putting 2 Move controllers in the box, along with the required camera, would render that kind of moot. I suspect $399 nets you a camera, HMD and a demo disc of sorts. Making Move optional allows Sony to make money on them, while allowing people to use their pre-bought controllers. This might even afford them room to subsidise the price of the bundle, thoough this is pure wishful thinking on my part. Game and accessory sales will have a much higher margin, however Sony might be comfortable with lower initial sales. Launching the bundle at $349 would be incredible, though.

I think the other interesting point is that Vive is actually cheaper to make than the Rift, which I wouldn't have expected. HTC has not been coy in labelling their product the premium VR experience. Perhaps, unlike Sony and Facebook, HTC will be looking to make a tidy profit on their hardware?

 

[neptunes]

Apologies, I saw an Amazon listing for $339. Regardless, there's a ton of people who just saved up and bought a PS4 last year. Now Sony will be asking them to shell out the same price again for an accessory that is unproven, is very difficult to demo without putting it on, and is a market segment that so far is attracting a very narrow audience? I'm not seeing gangbuster sales the first year at $350. Even at $299 it'd be a tough sell and would require some of the best advertising Sony has ever done, but at least the price would be more palatable for the majority of PS4 owners who aren't yet excited for VR.

What if they weren't targeting that demographic out the gate? What meaningful and original content would be available for them to be satisfied with their purchase?

They don't need to target them right now, they can do that a few months from now or even a whole year.

 

[KHarvey16]

I think the other interesting point is that Vive is actually cheaper to make than the Rift, which I wouldn't have expected. HTC has not been coy in labelling their product the premium VR experience. Perhaps, unlike Sony and Facebook, HTC will be looking to make a tidy profit on their hardware?

It seems reasonable HTC is looking to make a profit, but also keep in mind that that the cost listed here is for the headset only. The Vive includes motion controls and two lighthouse stations as well.

 

[StudioTan]

Ah, you're correct. The PS4's BoM was actually estimated at around $381, which means the launch price of US$399.00 had little if any profit in the box. Sony have said they're going to pricing the PSVR "like a console", so if BoM really is $350, $399 is most likely the price point they'll hit.

No, the exact quote was that it would priced as "a new gaming platform", whatever that means. I do think they'll hit $399 though.

 

[pmj]

The reasoning given for how they arrived at the cost is real weird. Like, why would the Oculus tracking system require them to put a processor and SSD storage in their headset, and the HTC one not?

 

[eyeball_kid]

What if they weren't targeting that demographic out the gate? What meaningful and original content would be available for them to be satisfied with their purchase?

They don't need to target them right now, they can do they a few months from now or even a whole year.

Well true, they might not be targeting a general audience initially, if they want to go the way of the PS3 long-slog. We're talking about 350 for the PSVR, plus separate purchases for the Camera and Move controllers? If they're targeting VR enthusiasts, they will probably have anemic sales the first year, and they might get dinged in the market for that. They have to be careful with that also because developers will be gunshy to support the PSVR if they're seeing lackluster sales. But I will say if they have amazing advertising, amazing media blitz, and most importantly an amazing product and games for it, they could perhaps do well at xmas 2016 with existing PS4 owners.

Meaningful content for a general audience out of the gate – I'm assuming it will be on the PSVR at this point, and guessing that it will arrive about the same time – is No Man's Sky, which seems to have a good chance of sales to both core and casual audiences. edit: Dreams also has big opportunities there, and I believe could have the ability to become a huge hit, but I think it will be a slow ramp-up of interest.

 

[ZehDon]

No, the exact quote was that it would priced as "a new gaming platform", whatever that means. I do think they'll hit $399 though.

Yep, good pick up. I think this was intended to let people know the device will cost more than, say, the camera that is available now. However, I think it also speaks to Sony's mindset: this isn't an accessory where they make money on each unit sold, rather this is a gaming platform where they intend to make money on the software side. This bodes well for those of us who were priced out of the Rift CV1.

Edit:

... We're talking about 350 for the PSVR, plus separate purchases for the Camera and Move controllers? If they're targeting VR enthusiasts, they will probably have anemic sales the first year, and they might get dinged in the market for that...

I just wanted to point out that Sony will almost certainly have multiple bundles available. The camera is sold separately, but its also required for PSVR to actually function. Forcing an additional purchase is pretty anti-consumer, and not in-line with Sony's strategy thus far. An HMD + Camera + Demo bundle for $399, and an HMD-only box for $349 seems like the best way to cater to everyone. Sony are going in with mild sales expectations, and have said they're not expecting a million units near launch. At these prices, I think it'll do well, but its never going to out-pace the Kinect.

 

[Skulduggery]

I cannot wait to find out Vive retail price

 

[onQ123]

So they are just making wild guesses like everyone else.

 

[Vena]

The PSVR BOM does not include the external unit, correct? So the price will shift higher same as with Vive BOM which isn't counting the Lighthouses.

 

[ArtHands]

The PSVR BOM does not include the external unit, correct? So the price will shift higher same as with Vive BOM which isn't counting the Lighthouses.

I think it exclude the PSVR processing unit, PSVR adapter, motion controllers and tracking devices(for all platforms)

 

[Klaymator14]

uh,,, what?? lol, i'm pretty sure the vive's BOM is going to near or exceed the rifts considering it's being bundled with controllers plus it's already been confirmed that the vive does have a physical IPD adjustment for the two lens and displays

However, we do not assume HTC Vive to have a built-in chip and SSD storage as it has a different position tracking system from Oculus Rift, which lowers its BoM cost a bit.

wtf are they talking about here? hahahaha

other than that i suppose the estimates seem pretty reasonable, though i think they could've done a better job here ;p

 

[EventHorizon]

Parts of the article that didn't make sense to me.

However, it is reported that Oculus Rift will have a built-in processor to compute head- tracking and positioning tracking.
How is this possible? The camera is connected directly to the PC. There is no way for the headset to help with position tracking. The only thing the Rift headset could possible process would be the motion sensor data, but anything it could possibly be doing with it would be trivial. Perhaps they are talking about the processing required to cause each LED to blink with its own code.

However, we do not assume HTC Vive to have a built-in chip and SSD storage as it has a different position tracking system from Oculus Rift, which lowers its BoM cost a bit.
If anything would have extra processors to help with tracking it would be the Vive. Here the headset and controllers receive the laser light from the base station and could conceivable do some processing of the signal before sending it on to the computer.

To improve the quality of input signal, Sony will separate the digital signal processing units into a PU (processor unit) box, which can fine tune the digital signal from the game console and send to the HMD and a TV.
The only thing the processor unit does is...

• Splits the output video signal from the console to TV, left eye, and right eye separate signals
• De-warps the TV signal if needed
• Handles 3D audio processing

​

 

[Outtrigger888]

I expect psVR to launch at 300$ Sony will try and get the BoM close to 300$ and take a bit of the loss and remake it by a couple of games or move controllers sold.

I really expect Sony to launch this shit at 300$ and throw a middle finger to oculus and valve.

 

[the_batman]

what matters are the killer apps

 

[Aztechnology]

I expect psVR to launch at 300$ Sony will try and get the BoM close to 300$ and take a bit of the loss and remake it by a couple of games or move controllers sold.

I really expect Sony to launch this shit at 300$ and throw a middle finger to oculus and valve.

Thats nice.

 

[EventHorizon]

I expect psVR to launch at 300$ Sony will try and get the BoM close to 300$ and take a bit of the loss and remake it by a couple of games or move controllers sold.

I really expect Sony to launch this shit at 300$ and throw a middle finger to oculus and valve.

I think the key to Sony being able to release at a low price is that they will release a version that is just the standalone headset without the camera and Move controllers. Since the camera and controllers are sold at a markup already, they can be used to offset the price of the headset. However I don't think they will be able to offer the PSVR headset at $300.

Here is my PSVR prediction:

• $30: PlayStation Move Controller
• $50: PlayStation 4 Camera
• $350: Standalone PSVR Headset*
• $440: PlayStation 4 VR Upgrade (Headset, Camera, Move Controller x 2)*

* Includes some free VR mini-games and demos

 

[Turin Turambar]

So it's really possible for the Vive to be significantly cheaper than the rift, huh?

Interesting.

Well, you see, they really have no idea of what they are saying. Examples

As it mainly targets gamers, it adopts slightly superior displays to Oculus Rift.

Rift doesn't target gamers, uh? And the display is the same, or super similar, from everything we know.

However, we do not assume HTC Vive to have a built-in chip and SSD storage as it has a different position tracking system from Oculus Rift

The Rift doesn't have a processor as they say, and much less SSD storage!

We also assume that HTC Vive’s lenses system is slightly cheaper than Oculus Rift as it might not adopt adjustable dial design.

But the Vive has adjustable dial design.

 

[Durante]

So it's really possible for the Vive to be significantly cheaper than the rift, huh?

No, it's not. As others said, these are HMD-only estimates. The Vive actually ships with room-scaletracking equipment and two tracked VR controllers.

That's without going into some of the assumptions underlying the estimate simply being wrong. Or the fact that unlike the other two there's no incentive for HTC to sell at cost.

Vive will be at least $200 more expensive than the Rift.

 

[DOT DASH DOT]

Guess that's a nice advantage for Sony to have established peripherals to again use with PSVR! Double dip

 

[Aztechnology]

No, it's not. As others said, these are HMD-only estimates. The Vive actually ships with room-scaletracking equipment and two tracked VR controllers.

That's without going into some of the assumptions underlying the estimate simply being wrong. Or the fact that unlike the other two there's no incentive for HTC to sell at cost.

Vive will be at least $200 more expensive than the Rift.

There's essentially 0% chance of being allowed to buy just the HMD right?

 

[Durante]

There's essentially 0% chance of being allowed to buy just the HMD right?

You wouldn't want a HMD without headtracking.

If you just want a cheap HMD with no VR controllers you can buy an OSVR kit for $300.

 

[artsi]

Well, you see, they really have no idea of what they are saying. Examples



Rift doesn't target gamers, uh? And the display is the same, or super similar, from everything we know.



The Rift doesn't have a processor as they say, and much less SSD storage!



But the Vive has adjustable dial design.

Yeah, I don't really see much value in this report, the average GAF user interested in VR has more insight into these devices.

 

[mrklaw]

How can they make an accurate estimate when they can't even get the basic assumptions remotely right?

- oculus will have onboard processing and an SSD in the headset
- both oculus and Vive will have batteries.
- Vive will have a better display than oculus even though both specs are the same and another report even suggested they were the same panel (not sure whether that last part is true though)
- Vive might be cheaper as maybe no separate lens adjustment - but they have two screens so the more likely assumption would be that they'd have IPD adjustment
- assumption that HTC will sell Vive at cost. So where are they making their money? They won't make money for software sales like Sony, and can't justify a long term play like Facebook.


What the fuck is this?

PlayStation VR does not have to come with its own processing units, storage, battery and controllers. These together drive the cost down.

Neither will OR or Vive!

Wow, I really should get a job at Goldman Sachs if they get paid a fortune for reports as baseless as this.

I hope to god the actual BOM breakdown goes into a ton more detail around factories, supply chain, existin technologies that can be leveraged by each company etc,



Edit: continuing the rant. If these numbers are genuinely HMD only then surely the Vive costs more? It has a camera which the others don't, and the photodiodes will surely be more expensive than simple LEDS, and they'll all need to be connected up to a basic processing chip to send info on when they are hit by the lighthouse eras the LEDs on OR and PSVR are just dumb lights.

 

[Quaz51]

it's clearly a random estimate without product access and with bad research and info.
Not better (or worst?) than any random forum estimate.

 

[DieH@rd]

It's pointless to predict BOM when they don't have access to finished products and info about size of orders.

 

[artsi]

How can they make an accurate estimate when they can't even get the basic assumptions remotely right?

- oculus will have onboard processing and an SSD in the headset
- both oculus and Vive will have batteries.
- Vive will have a better display than oculus even though both specs are the same and another report even suggested they were the same panel (not sure whether that last part is true though)
- Vive might be cheaper as maybe no separate lens adjustment - but they have two screens so the more likely assumption would be that they'd have IPD adjustment
- assumption that HTC will sell Vive at cost. So where are they making their money? They won't make money for software sales like Sony, and can't justify a long term play like Facebook.


What the fuck is this?
Neither will OR or Vive!

Wow, I really should get a job at Goldman Sachs if they get paid a fortune for reports as baseless as this.

I hope to god the actual BOM breakdown goes into a ton more detail around factories, supply chain, existin technologies that can be leveraged by each company etc,



Edit: continuing the rant. If these numbers are genuinely HMD only then surely the Vive costs more? It has a camera which the others don't, and the photodiodes will surely be more expensive than simple LEDS, and they'll all need to be connected up to a basic processing chip to send info on when they are hit by the lighthouse eras the LEDs on OR and PSVR are just dumb lights.

it's clearly a random estimate without product access and with bad research and info.
Not better (or worst?) than any random forum estimate.

That's investment analysis for you. They can pull pretty much any kind of crap from their asses but it's fine and dandy because they got that Goldman Sachs powerpoint template to put it on. Then people can quote the mighty GS instead of some random suit with a business degree and (apparently limited) Google skills.

 

[Aztechnology]

You wouldn't want a HMD without headtracking.

If you just want a cheap HMD with no VR controllers you can buy an OSVR kit for $300.

I'll look into this, thanks. I really like the modular capabilities and it generally covers my wants besides foveated rendering of course . Do you know any sites that have done an in depth review or comparison to the Rift/Vive?

Not that I expect you to be an expert on VR but you seem generally well informed. Have you heard anything about the headsets with eye tracking like Fove?

 

[John Wick]

Now you see where Pachter gets it from! These idiots haven't a clue! At least do the proper research.