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GPU Sales See Biggest Quarterly Drop Since 2009 Recession: JPR

Jon Peddie Research reports the growth of the global PC-based graphics processor unit (GPU) market reached 75.5 million units in Q3'22 and PC CPU shipments decreased by -19% year over year. Overall, GPUs will have a compound annual growth rate of 2.8% during 2022-2026 and reach an installed base...

www.techpowerup.com

Jon Peddie Research reports the growth of the global PC-based graphics processor unit (GPU) market reached 75.5 million units in Q3'22 and PC CPU shipments decreased by -19% year over year. Overall, GPUs will have a compound annual growth rate of 2.8% during 2022-2026 and reach an installed base of 3,138 million units at the end of the forecast period. Over the next five years, the penetration of discrete GPUs (dGPUs) in the PC will grow to reach a level of 26%.

Year-to-year total GPU shipments, which include all platforms and all types of GPUs, decreased by -25.1%, desktop graphics decreased by -15.43%, and notebooks decreased by -30%—the biggest drop since the 2009 recession. AMD's overall market share percentage from last quarter decreased by -8.5%, Intel's market share increased by 10.3%, and NVIDIA's market share decreased by -1.87%, as indicated in the following chart.

Quick highlights

• The GPU's overall attach rate (which includes integrated and discrete GPUs, desktop, notebook, and workstations) to PCs for the quarter was 115%, down -6.0% from last quarter.
• The overall PC CPU market decreased by -5.7% quarter to quarter and decreased -by 18.6% from year to year.
• Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs that use discrete GPUs) decreased by -33.5% from the last quarter.
• This quarter saw 0.5% change in tablet shipments from last quarter.

The third quarter typically has the strongest growth compared to the previous quarter. This quarter was down -10.3% from last quarter, which is below the 10-year average of 5.3%.

GPUs have been a leading indicator of the market because a GPU goes into a system before the suppliers ship the PC. Most of the semiconductor vendors are guiding down for the next quarter, an average of -0.21%. Last quarter, they guided -2.79%, which was too high.

Jon Peddie, president of JPR, noted, "The third quarter is usually the high point of the year for the GPU and PC suppliers, and even though the suppliers had guided down in Q2, the results came much below their expectations.

"All the companies gave various and sometimes similar reasons for the downturn: the shutdown of crypto mining, headwinds from China's zero-tolerance rules and rolling shutdowns, sanctions by the US, user situation from the purchasing run-up during Covid, the Osborne effect on AMD while gamers wait for the new AIBs, inflation and the higher prices of AIBs, overhang inventory run-down, and a bad moon out tonight.

"Generally, the feeling is Q4 shipments will be down, but ASPs will be up, supply will be fine, and everyone will have a happy holiday," Peddie said.

JPR also publishes a series of reports on the graphics add-in board market and PC gaming hardware market, which covers the total market, including systems and accessories, and looks at 31 countries.

What a great idea to increase GPU prices, during a recession. Brilliant.

 

[Warnen]

People stopped mining? Who was going to keep buying the gpus? Seems like more of a correction then a decline. Also people back to work, no need for new work from home set up, again seems like a correction.

 

[STARSBarry]

They should have focussed on efficiency in both power and heat and refining what they delivered on the 3000 but at a reduced cost with a small bump in preformance...

Instead we got a new cable type that can catch fire because the power requirement is so insane and prices that make you question if they learned anything from the RTX 2000 debacle.

Happy to stick with my 3080 (which I got for RRP at launch) until they give us a gen that does just that.

 

[Warnen]

They should have focussed on efficiency in both power and heat and refining what they delivered on the 3000 but at a reduced cost with a small bump in preformance...

Instead we got a new cable type that can catch fire because the power requirement is so insane and prices that make you question if they learned anything from the RTX 2000 debacle.

Happy to stick with my 3080 (which I got for RRP at launch) until they give us a gen that does just that.

It melts because dirty people can’t plug it in right…

 

[Akuji]

The price increase is not why they wont sell.
Its a difficult time to sell luxery goods especially when alot of mining cards come to the gaming market.

Two things can be true at the same time.

 

[Gaiff]

 

[Denton]

Well, the prices are so dumb right now that for the first time in my 25 years of PC gaming, I bought second hand GPU (3080Ti for 600 bucks).
The nice thing about capitalism, if nobody buys these, prices will go down eventually.

 

[Bonsaibäumchen]

They should have focussed on efficiency in both power and heat and refining what they delivered on the 3000 but at a reduced cost with a small bump in preformance...

Instead we got a new cable type that can catch fire because the power requirement is so insane and prices that make you question if they learned anything from the RTX 2000 debacle.

Happy to stick with my 3080 (which I got for RRP at launch) until they give us a gen that does just that.

Actually that cable thing is due to not correctly plugged in cables.
Seems like they haven't been conncected entirely (all the way without a gap)

 

[Kacho]

Still waiting for a reasonably priced GPU for my new rig. Fuck those prices.

 

[Pagusas]

They should have focussed on efficiency in both power and heat and refining what they delivered on the 3000 but at a reduced cost with a small bump in preformance...

Instead we got a new cable type that can catch fire because the power requirement is so insane and prices that make you question if they learned anything from the RTX 2000 debacle.

Happy to stick with my 3080 (which I got for RRP at launch) until they give us a gen that does just that.

No thanks. no one wants small bumps, especially as this is likely the last time we'll ever see monolithic GPU's. Chiplet desigs are the future, the 4090 likely being the last of the traditional breed. With Chiplets taking over next gen, we'll get the power/heat and performance goals, but that wasn't viable yet for this last generation of monolithic designs.

The 4090 is a gift, even if it made the rest of the 40xx line pointless and stupidly priced, I'm glad we got it.

 

[Interfectum]

 

[Bonsaibäumchen]

http://[URL]https://www.techpowerup...ggest-quarterly-drop-since-2009-recession-jpr

[/URL]



What a great idea to increase GPU prices, during a recession. Brilliant.

No surprise here.
Mining is declining, recession is hitting, electrocity and gas prises are all over the place, the electronics booms due to covid has passed and people already upgraded their rigs im the past 2 years.

Theres no need to spent so much money on gpus.

If they would adjust their prices to the gtx970 era i wouldn't mind spending 500-600€ for a new gpu.

 

[kuncol02]

Actually that cable thing is due to not correctly plugged in cables.
Seems like they haven't been conncected entirely (all the way without a gap)

And there is no requirement from correctly designed cables to prevent that situation.

 

[MiguelItUp]

Still waiting for a reasonably priced GPU for my new rig. Fuck those prices.

Yeaaaaah. A GPU that is equal to the cost of an entire rig is absurd, I'm not going to support that kind of behavior, ever.

I was fortunate to get a 3080 at retail price thanks to another friend's pal having a spare earlier this year. I'll be good for awhile. When I feel like upgrading, I'm making sure it's not supporting all this BS.

 

[Irobot82]

I'm hoping this forces some hands and reduces pricing. I'm 3 generations old now and I have been priced out of X800/X080 class of cards. I eagerly await the new mistier cards.

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

They should have focussed on efficiency in both power and heat and refining what they delivered on the 3000 but at a reduced cost with a small bump in preformance...

Instead we got a new cable type that can catch fire because the power requirement is so insane and prices that make you question if they learned anything from the RTX 2000 debacle.

Happy to stick with my 3080 (which I got for RRP at launch) until they give us a gen that does just that.

0.04% failure rate due to people not plugging it in all the way, amplified up to 11 by clickbait YouTubers making videos based on pictures they found on Reddit + tossing out unverified (and later disproven) hypotheses as to the root cause.

Come on. I know we all want to see Nvidia punished for their hubris but don’t spread the BS anymore.

 

[Kacho]

Yeaaaaah. A GPU that is equal to the cost of an entire rig is absurd, I'm not going to support that kind of behavior, ever.

I was fortunate to get a 3080 at retail price thanks to another friend's pal having a spare earlier this year. I'll be good for awhile. When I feel like upgrading, I'm making sure it's not supporting all this BS.

Yep. The PC I built in 2015 was ~$1200 for all parts. I spent close to that last November for everything minus a GPU… and I’m supposed to drop another grand on a GPU? Get the fuck out of here lol.

 

[kevm3]

Considering the GPU costs as much as it used to take to build the whole computer, it's not surprising. Plus, how much of a better experience are you really getting paying 2500 for a computer vs 500 for a ps5 or xbox? Developers aren't really building around PCs like that, so you might get a few nicer effects and framerates, but the ps5 and xbox version looks good enough to me that I don't feel like I'm missing out on much, especially for the 2000 price differential

 

[M1chl]

Every time someone post that gif it makes me rage, that shit is from the worst "stand up" ever.

Anyway I highly doubt it, since GPU is today for far more things than before.

Seems like that they are saying that, it has the biggest drop since 2009, not on decline from 2009. Am I wrong?

 

[Gaiff]

They should have focussed on efficiency in both power and heat and refining what they delivered on the 3000 but at a reduced cost with a small bump in preformance...

Nobody would upgrade for power efficiency alone. "a small bump in performance". Do you think those who didn't think the 3080 worthwhile would suddenly upgrade for a 4080 that's 10% faster but at half the power consumption? They would laugh at the gen-on-gen performance uplift. Also, the Lovelace cards a lot more power efficient than Ampere. The performance/watt has improved dramatically.

Instead we got a new cable type that can catch fire because the power requirement is so insane and prices that make you question if they learned anything from the RTX 2000 debacle.

You mean we got a few jolly idiots who didn't connect their cables properly. It's something like 0.005% of users who are affected.

Happy to stick with my 3080 (which I got for RRP at launch) until they give us a gen that does just that.

Which is good. The 3080 is still plenty powerful so long as it's not VRAM-starved.

 

[FalsettoVibe]

Considering the GPU costs as much as it used to take to build the whole computer, it's not surprising. Plus, how much of a better experience are you really getting paying 2500 for a computer vs 500 for a ps5 or xbox? Developers aren't really building around PCs like that, so you might get a few nicer effects and framerates, but the ps5 and xbox version looks good enough to me that I don't feel like I'm missing out on much, especially for the 2000 price differential

 

[MidGenRefresh]

The 4090 is a gift, even if it made the rest of the 40xx line pointless and stupidly priced, I'm glad we got it.

Currently 4090 is completely unnecessary. Utterly ridiculous. Total overkill.

That's why I love mine.

 

[Pagusas]

Currently 4090 is completely unnecessary. Utterly ridiculous. Total overkill.

That's why I love mine.

yep, thats also why I love mine. Its a love letter to the performance loving crowd. In my entire time in PC gaming (first custom build was a Voodoo 3) we've never had this much of an over kill card. The closest I feel to this was the 1080 TI or the 8800gtx, both of which were insane values and performance kings that kicked the ass of almost every game they touched, but even those didn't have the performance differential we see out of the 3090.

 

[Kacho]

Every time someone post that gif it makes me rage, that shit is from the worst "stand up" ever.

One of my best buds loved that guy. We went to one of his shows years ago and it was truly awful. Didn't laugh once.

 

[tusharngf]

they need to go back to pascal style pricing.

 

[Ozriel]

Says in the OP that due to higher ASPs, they’ll make pretty much the same cash.

Sad stuff. I’d been hoping to build a 4080 PC this November. Prices and availability are wild

 

[diffusionx]

The prices are insane, performance jumps are not that great (note how Nvidia puts all their fake benchmarks with DLSS on), and the games aren’t really there either. Great I’ll spend $1300 to play Noita and Loop Hero.

 

[GymWolf]

Yeah but i still need one for 4k60 gaming, not much alternatives unfortunately...

Even a "filthy" 3090ti is still way over 1000 euros here in europe...

 

[Bonfires Down]

Makes sense with today’s crazy prices, but I don’t think we can draw any long term conclusions with crypto miners having been such a large part of GPU buyers.

 

[Gaiff]

The prices are insane, performance jumps are not that great (note how Nvidia puts all their fake benchmarks with DLSS on), and the games aren’t really there either. Great I’ll spend $1300 to play Noita and Loop Hero.

On the contrary, performance jumps are some of the greatest we've seen in years...except the price jumps are also some of the greatest, nullifying the performance increase.

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

15% decline in desktop GPUs, 30% in notebooks… horrible numbers all around but that makes it look like it’s related more to lower remote-work demand than to gaming decline.

 

[JCK75]

Scalpers and short supply cause cards to cost 3X their retail value.. release new cards at the 3X price..
that'll get em buying.

 

[Skifi28]

Wake me up when 7600XT or 7700 release next year, assuming they're reasonably priced.

 

[Laptop1991]

Of course its the high prices, if they were at the GTX 980 level of 400 quid the new GPU's would fly of the shelves, Nvidia liked getting all the extra money from miners and don't want to lose it, Nvidia are suppose to care more about gaming but profit always comes first, serves them right. i'm not an AMD user so i'm no expert about them but i'd imagine it's more or less the same.

 

[SmokedMeat]

Good. Nvidia thinks they can come out and everyone’s just going to fall over themselves for their latest ultra expensive cards.

Thankfully saner minds are prevailing and not going for their bullshit. They needed a reality check.

The mid range needs to be the focus, and it needs to be priced correctly. Stop trying to fuck everyone over.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Currently 4090 is completely unnecessary. Utterly ridiculous. Total overkill.

That's why I love mine.

Right there with ya!

My God, its amazing.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Good

The Crypto market crash is hugely responsible for this. Hope it stays that way

 

[Smiggs]

Whoever thought $1200 for a 4080 was a good idea needs some serious help. xx80 cards started at around $500 to $700 for the reference model for like 10 years now. I understand with inflation and other supply chain issues that prices would increase, but what Nvidia has done is beyond dirty. $900, or maybe even 1000 might be reasonable this gen considering everything going on in the world, but $1200...

Then the bullshit 12GB "4080" for $899... If it was purely a production cost issue, the fucking 4090 should have been over 2 grand, not only $100 more. And when they introduce the 5080 at a REDUCED price of $899, we will all cheer Nvidia on for helping out the consumer! They're just fucking us now, so more people feel like the 500 series is a deal when it launches in 2 years, since most people probably don't need to upgrade to 400 series as it is now.

I wish people would skip this gen and teach them a lesson, but alas...

 

[BennyBlanco]

I was ready to pull the trigger on a 4090 FE but never found one in stock for MSRP. Kinda glad I didn’t at this point. 3080 is plugging along just fine at 4k. Nvidia went full retard with their pricing.

 

[Kerotan]

Yeah but aren't overall sales higher then 2009?

 

[Reallink]

What a great idea to increase GPU prices, during a recession. Brilliant.

Here's the thing, Nvidia makes more profit from a single 4090 sale than they would selling 20 4060's at $300. And they currently have the outstanding demand to sell several hundred thousand 4090's in a single month if shortages didn't exist (that image is seconds into a completely random 2pm Best Buy shadow drop from a few days ago, known only to secret tracking Discords and Twitters, well over a month post launch, trying to buy the few dozen units they got in). They've already sold 130K units instantaneously and are clearly at least 2.5 - 4x below actual demand (which would have likely amounted to 300-500k units in launch month). That's at an average selling price of around $1780. So yeah, I don't think Nvidia's second guessing their strategy just yet considering the 4090 is very likely their most profitable product launch in history. They'll eventually make the cheap 4060, but it'll barely trade blows with 3070--a then 3 year old "$499" card. Making everyone question their life choices of why they waited 3 years to save $150.

 

[lukilladog]

Currently 4090 is completely unnecessary. Utterly ridiculous. Total overkill.

That's why I love mine.

You don't need it now but it makes you feel good, Nvidia got you well.

 

[UltimaKilo]

They definitely misread the market and the economy, but there's a lot of uncertainty right now with this recession. Many companies have had to scale back production, but that might make for steep discounts. We're also in the holiday season, which will mask it a bit, so let's see where we are next year.

 

[Elios83]

And yet I still see prices for RTX 3080s at 1000€+ on Amazon.
I was looking for a new gaming notebook from MSI or Asus and models with just a 3070M cost 2600€....
At these prices I give up.

 

[Reallink]

And yet I still see prices for RTX 3080s at 1000€+ on Amazon.
I was looking for a new gaming notebook from MSI or Asus and models with just a 3070M cost 2600€....
At these prices I give up.

In the US as well, all of the 3XXX's are still at least $50 - $200 above FE MSRP's with the vast majority of models also being out of stock. EVGA's firesell was really the only meaningful discount the 3XXX's have seen, and they sold every unit they had in a matter of hours at very modest $30-$50 below FE MSRP's discounts. Meanwhile according to "experts" and industry insiders, Nvidia/AIB's are allegedly sitting on warehouses full of 3XXX's, in addition to mountains of 4nm (4XXX) wafers they're desperate to pawn off on other companies. Yet 4090 inventory is rarer than the height of the 3XXX crypto bubble, and 3XXX inventory is still selling at large premiums and mostly out of stock. So either "insiders" are inventing bullshit out of whole cloth, or Nvidia are abusing their monopoly to manipulate the market to criminal probe levels.

 

[Danknugz]

my 3090 went for around 775$ for what it's worth (ebay)

 

[Gamerdude123]

I was looking at upgrading to a 3090 from a 1080Ti, however the new cards seem so weak. A 3090 gets around 30-40FPS on a Plague Tale Requiem at 4k resolution and can´t even do 60FPS on Cyberpunk. A $1000 card should be doing 60FPS on every modern game and upcoming games with complete ease.

 

[Insane Metal]

I'm sure if they keep rising the prices it will sell more!

 

[Kadve]

I'm sure if they keep rising the prices it will sell more!

Nope but it does allow them to report the same profit. Which is all that matter to investors.

 

[Rocco Schiavone]

It's over.

I personally don't give a shit. I stick with my PowerColor Red Devil 5700XT. Don't want to sell my kidney so I can afford a high end graphics card.