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GTA V means TTWO is a buy

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Most video game companies are terrible stock investments since their market for growth is quite limited. Even for the big boys, they have to keep producing hits year after year, which are bigger and bigger just to keep the growth going. Just doing $1bn static business each year is actually not impressive for the stock market.
 
TTWO was a buy a year ago and had been climbing up to the release of GTAV. There's no reason to buy now because they don't have another major project in the pipeline for years. Its not going to keep going up at the same rate, it'll top out soon if it hasn't already.
 
Note: It isn't a sound financial strategy to just buy stock of a company when they sell a lot of a thing they expected to sell a lot of; the stock doesn't just go up because they sold a lot because the expected value of the thing to the company was already included in the stock's price
 
yellow submarine said:
Most video game companies are terrible stock investments since their market for growth is quite limited. Even for the big boys, they have to keep producing hits year after year, which are bigger and bigger just to keep the growth going. Just doing $1bn static business each year is actually not impressive for the stock market.
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yeah, this is a trade IMO based on actual sales being much more than expected by analysts, and therefore a rare opportunity to get in before the market reacts. people expected GTA V to be a strong seller, but being day one 60% bigger than the prior record holder is way beyond expectations, IMO anyway. I say wait for the $20's and sell the stock.

I wouldnt recommend any video game stocks in the long run since its such a rapidly changing and hit driven business.
 
cleveridea said:
yeah, this is a trade IMO based on actual sales being much more than expected by analysts, and therefore a rare opportunity to get in before the market reacts. people expected GTA V to be a strong seller, but being day one 60% bigger than the prior record holder is way beyond expectations, IMO anyway. I say wait for the $20's and sell the stock.

I wouldnt recommend any video game stocks in the long run since its such a rapidly changing and hit driven business.
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But the market is reacting to the news today, and I wouldn't say the action is furious.
 
teruterubozu said:
But the market is reacting to the news today, and I wouldn't say the action is furious.
Click to expand...

yeah hence the 1-3 weeks, my prediction is your going to see analysts raise their models and correposndingly their price targets based on higher than expected cashflow.

short term, market is a voting machine, long term a weighing machine
 
cleveridea said:
yeah, this is a trade IMO based on actual sales being much more than expected by analysts, and therefore a rare opportunity to get in before the market reacts. people expected GTA V to be a strong seller, but being day one 60% bigger than the prior record holder is way beyond expectations, IMO anyway. I say wait for the $20's and sell the stock.

I wouldnt recommend any video game stocks in the long run since its such a rapidly changing and hit driven business.
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I will eat my shoe if it hits $20.
 
If I understand what GTAV has taught me about investing, I should bomb the CEO of Electronic Arts first, THEN invest on Take Two.

Is that correct?
 
Buy now before the ports and dlc hit. Those are inexpensive to make so their profit margins will be higher. Im an expert.
 
MM's are trying to trap people like the OP in this stock. Pre market today it was at $18.65. GTA V sales have been priced in for a while. I bet there will be a spike when actual numbers are released and then a bunch of profit taking. Stock will ultimately end up back around where it is now, maybe a bit higher if they beat expectations at the next earnings. If you want to take a chance on a jump in price but don't want to spend a bunch of money, buy a couple of October $18 calls.

To OP saying don't invest anything you can't afford to lose...wtf? Don't gamble anything you can't afford to lose. Do your DD and invest with confidence.
 
How much of Gta 5 is factored in?
Ttwo, has been a relatively bad stock in the past, despite their stable of ip.
And how front loaded is Gta 5? I'd wager that Gta 5 could end up as one of the most front loaded games ever.
 
cleveridea said:
yeah hence the 1-3 weeks, my prediction is your going to see analysts raise their models and correposndingly their price targets based on higher than expected cashflow.

short term, market is a voting machine, long term a weighing machine
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TTWO $25 lol.

Okay.
 
Mr. B Natural said:
Why exactly would the stock explode in 1 - 3 weeks about news that happened today?
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I don't believe in TTWO or would buy it but Cleveridea was on CNBC a moment ago discussing TTWO and said it would hit $24 (no time period given). (It was a technical analysis guy not Cleveridea but I was thinking it could be the same person!)

Based solely on technical and ignoring fundamentals the charts do look good for a breakout but I'd say it'd take more than 1 to 3 weeks for it to jump 30%. I'd say 6 months and probably after the Christmas holidays if there was momentum.

I'll post a link to the CNBC segment once it is online.
 
mackaveli said:
I don't believe in TTWO or would buy it but Cleveridea was on CNBC a moment ago discussing TTWO and said it would hit $24 (no time period given). (It was a technical analysis guy not Cleveridea but I was thinking it could be the same person!)

Based solely on technical and ignoring fundamentals the charts do look good for a breakout but I'd say it'd take more than 1 to 3 weeks for it to jump 30%. I'd say 6 months and probably after the Christmas holidays if there was momentum.

I'll post a link to the CNBC segment once it is online.
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And the fundamentals guy said he wouldn't touch it.
 
mavs said:
And the fundamentals guy said he wouldn't touch it.
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I know that's why I said based solely on the technical analysis there could be a break out. And I also said I wouldn't invest. I just found it funny that the technical guy said it can hit $24 and thought of this thread.
 
last time i asked for stock advice here ( regarding sony) i was told not to do it...

it's doubled since then, and will prolly double again in the coming months.

im thinking about buying back in while its at low 20s.
 
Based on the technicals from the charts and about 30 seconds of analysis, the OP might be right. If you're going to buy this stock for a short term gain, now would be the time. However, that definitely goes against "buy the rumour, sell the news".
 
Just to be clear here, GTAV being released is not a surprise. It selling really well is not a surprise. Take-Two making a lot of money off of this game? You guessed it, not a surprise.

That means that TTWO's current stock price has at least partially already factored in the release of this game. Sure, it might get a small pop since the game may sell a bit better than expected, but really, it's unlikely to do insane things.

Full disclosure: I don't own shares in TTWO and don't plan to. Also, if you want to discuss general investing, please visit us in the Stock-age thread. If you're completely new to investing, there are much more sensible ways to invest than jumping head first into TTWO. Not to say it is the worst idea ever, just that, if you're completely inexperienced with investing, TTWO is not the stock to pick.
 
The performance of GTA V will not significantly increase the price. The expected sales growth of GTA games are already factored into the price.

The street hates video game companies because they can't rely on the profits. It's a hit, no hit sort of industry that they won't give a shot.

Hollywood companies like WB have a high stock price not because of the performance of their movies but because of the numerous profit making industries that are under their umbrella.
 
Whenever McDonalds brings the McRib back each year I buy a ton of their stock and walk away with HUGE profits. Good investment tip for you all.
 
Honest question OP, do you have any experience at all trading stocks?
No offense but to me it seems you not only lack that but also a dose of common sense.
 
cleveridea said:
yeah, this is a trade IMO based on actual sales being much more than expected by analysts, and therefore a rare opportunity to get in before the market reacts. people expected GTA V to be a strong seller, but being day one 60% bigger than the prior record holder is way beyond expectations, IMO anyway. I say wait for the $20's and sell the stock.

I wouldnt recommend any video game stocks in the long run since its such a rapidly changing and hit driven business.
Click to expand...

cleveridea said:
yeah hence the 1-3 weeks, my prediction is your going to see analysts raise their models and correposndingly their price targets based on higher than expected cashflow.

short term, market is a voting machine, long term a weighing machine
Click to expand...

You clearly have no idea how stocks or the market work. They don't take 3 weeks to raise the value on a company making higher than expected profits now. And if you're now backing down to "the $20s" would make you about $2.50 per share if it hits $20. There won't be a huge appreciation, Take Two doesn't have enough going for it, it may see a slight temporary bump at best.
 
Time for a 20/20 hindsight evaluation!

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TTWO

tKoNlpx.png


OP predicted TTWO to reach 20-25 in 1-3 weeks

Day of post, it closed at 17.43
1 Week after he posted, it peaked at 18.42.
2.5 Weeks after he posted, it broke even 17.41
3 Weeks after he posted, it was down to 17.05
Tomorrow it will open around 17.00

OP did give a 70-80% confidence to hedge his bet, but also explained it saying the only risk was a scandal, which AFAIK did not happen.

Why bump this thread again? Well, I had it in my subscriptions and wanted closure (even though someone already posted). As gamers I think we do have more acumen when it comes to predicting successes in the industry than an average investor, but the people at these huge investment companies mitigate that by hiring analysts who do a pretty good job -- especially when it comes to a major release like GTAV.

What makes a stock jump is when a something happens that surpass expectations, like the company reports earnings in their quarterly report that surpass expectations, or word breaks out that the Wii is sold out nationwide after only two days despite its risky approach to console gaming. Our advantage comes when we have our fingers on the pulse of the gaming demographic and can tell if a market prediction going to be accurate.

TTWO's next earnings call is on Oct 29th.
 
Fury Sense said:
Time for a 20/20 hindsight evaluation!

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TTWO

tKoNlpx.png


OP predicted TTWO to reach 20-25 in 1-3 weeks

Day of post, it closed at 17.43
1 Week after he posted, it peaked at 18.42.
2.5 Weeks after he posted, it broke even 17.41
3 Weeks after he posted, it was down to 17.05
Tomorrow it will open around 17.00

OP did give a 70-80% confidence to hedge his bet, but also explained it saying the only risk was a scandal, which AFAIK did not happen.

Why bump this thread again? Well, I had it in my subscriptions and wanted closure (even though someone already posted). As gamers I think we do have more acumen when it comes to predicting successes in the industry than an average investor, but the people at these huge investment companies mitigate that by hiring analysts who do a pretty good job -- especially when it comes to a major release like GTAV.

What makes a stock jump is when a something happens that surpass expectations, like the company reports earnings in their quarterly report that surpass expectations, or word breaks out that the Wii is sold out nationwide after only two days despite its risky approach to console gaming. Our advantage comes when we have our fingers on the pulse of the gaming demographic and can tell if a market prediction going to be accurate.

TTWO's next earnings call is on Oct 29th.
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The online problems were a HUGE shitstorm that damaged further sales of the game.
People were & are saying to not play the game until they fully patch all the problem with disappearing progress.
The online can be a massive boost to sales & longevity if they fix the problems & start releasing the heists & other promises they have made.
 
See You Next Wednesday said:
The online problems were a HUGE shitstorm that damaged further sales of the game.
People were & are saying to not play the game until they fully patch all the problem with disappearing progress.
The online can be a massive boost to sales & longevity if they fix the problems & start releasing the heists & other promises they have made.
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My mom hasn't asked me about that scandal, so it's clearly not comparable to Hot Coffee. How many people really are boycotting the game because of this? Lol come on
 
Fury Sense said:
My mom hasn't asked me about that scandal, so it's clearly not comparable to Hot Coffee. How many people really are boycotting the game because of this? Lol come on
Click to expand...

Botched online isn't nearly as sexy a scandal as a sex minigame.

The price's second peak was on October 1, the day online launched. The next two peaks seem to correspond to the dates of Rockstar's patches.

I'd say the botched online is a pretty good candidate for one of the main drivers for the decrease in price since October 1.
 
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