I'm 100 matches in and the gameplay is incredible. I love it. Some weapons need to be fixed/buffed but by and large it's phenomenal fun. Whenever you're on an unlucky losing streak and raging something awesome will happen to lure you back in.
However I still don't trust 343 at all. The facial animation in that tutorial was awful for a modern AAA game. Vegetation isn't animated at all, which is bizarre. Considering 5 years of development, there aren't that many maps and no custom / different playlists. It feels like less content than prior Halo games despite taking 5 years and having a full year delay for polish.
And of course, the progression system. I don't care that much - I play the game for fun - but having interacted with it, it IS terrible. Terrible in every way. Which is a problem for a F2P game that will live and die on its progression (and thus selling battle passes and content etc). They had all that time to get it right, and still ended up with a PR disaster. Classic 343.
But that IS my main problem - that's it's F2P. Why? Halo would have sold tons anyway, and it's on Gamepass so it would have had a built in audience of millions.
Which makes me think that they've spun it out of Gamepass to justify all the paid content. Content that would have been free to game pass users had it been part of the game and unlockable simply by playing - in the standard halo style. Instead, even game pass users have to pay for all that unlockable gear because it's "a F2P game". Which sucks, but will make MS tens of millions of dollars. The prices are also absolutely insane, and the unlockables are uninspired. Many unlockables are things like exp boosts that are clearly just a drug dealer's first hit to try and get you to pay 2 dollars a piece for more. All of this could have been avoided if it was just part of the $60 game package.
What if the next Forza Horizon is F2P, and you have to buy the cars? As a game pass user, I'd cancel right away. Fuck that.
Anyway, none of this fills me with much hope for the campaign. And I do suspect that they released the MP first so that the new Halo could have a positive launch, in fear that criticism of the campaign could overshadow what is fundamentally a good MP game. And I think that for $60 without an MP mode to boost the value the campaign may be tough to justify.