Projectjustice
Banned
It sure is, Neogaf is just as bad as patcher.
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Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
How is Wii U going to do in 2013?
- Thread starter hatchx
- Start date
It sure is, Neogaf is just as bad as patcher.
IHaveCandy
Banned
To be fair, the GC and N64 did end up in last place due to non- standard hardware and lack of third party support.
Agreed. Other than Oblivion, the 360 really had a weak lineup until Gears of War. In a way, the WiiU is in a very similar situation that the 360 was in that they were the first console of their generation to be released. I remember people even questioning whether MS made a mistake releasing the 360 too early.
I don't think Wii U is the position to weather a "typical" console launch lineup.
It would be a different case if Wii U was on the forefront of a new gen, but it's not. Not when developers need to put in extra work just to get performance on-par with current gen and there are two more powerful competitors on the immediate horizon. For all intents and purposes Wii U is a stop-gap console that desperately needs to convince people it's not a stop-gap console. It needs to be making a strong impression as quickly as it can.
I just finished reading this thread.
What is striking is the assumption that Sony and MS already have developers in their back pocket for Durango and Orbis.
What's even more striking is the assumption that we'll see $300-$400 machines. There is no chance of that happening. Sony and MS will be asking $499+ for their console's.
As for Nintendo I think once we're into 2014 we'll see the quality software get made. I feel like Nintendo is sort of having to just get by atm as publishers flesh out what their strategies are for the future and they're just observing Wii U for now or they just have no faith in the system.
I'm sure some developers and publishers will hedge bets on Orbis and Durango but I think $499+ will cause the death of these companies. Like we saw with Free Radical and Factor 5 and the rest of the companies in the gaming grave yard.
I'm sure people will laugh at this post but I'm pretty certain that MS and Sony will make pretty outstanding machines but it won't matter what they do. Pricing will be the failure even with Sony and MS subsidising and softening the cost.
What is striking is the assumption that Sony and MS already have developers in their back pocket for Durango and Orbis.
What's even more striking is the assumption that we'll see $300-$400 machines. There is no chance of that happening. Sony and MS will be asking $499+ for their console's.
As for Nintendo I think once we're into 2014 we'll see the quality software get made. I feel like Nintendo is sort of having to just get by atm as publishers flesh out what their strategies are for the future and they're just observing Wii U for now or they just have no faith in the system.
I'm sure some developers and publishers will hedge bets on Orbis and Durango but I think $499+ will cause the death of these companies. Like we saw with Free Radical and Factor 5 and the rest of the companies in the gaming grave yard.
I'm sure people will laugh at this post but I'm pretty certain that MS and Sony will make pretty outstanding machines but it won't matter what they do. Pricing will be the failure even with Sony and MS subsidising and softening the cost.
Nintendo not keeping up is getting old.
Nintendo can only do it for so long until both audiences (casual and core) start to get annoyed.
Doesn't help that the Wii U is a confusing console for many casuals either.
The WiiU isn't?
I think WiiU is going to struggle next year. If they are saving announcements for 3d mario and zelda for when next-gen are revealed, they are going to be smothered. 2013 line up is looking pathetic atm.
metalslimer
Member
Let's also not forget how dominant Sony was during both of those gens.
You really think casual gamers give a shit about the CPU in Wii U? No, they don't give a crap about graphics. They go where the latest new experience is. Right now that's tablets which certainly don't come anywhere close to even the PS3/360.
frankie_baby
Member
N64 wasn't last
So PGR3 and Call of Duty 2 were weak?
-Pyromaniac-
Member
I think your assumptions are more outlandish than the others. Why wouldn't Sony/MS have the support of 3rd party developers? They already have it, they never lost it, logic says they'll have it again. There's ZERO reason to think they wont as of today. So it's a stretch to say otherwise.
As for pricing, you're assuming 499 is the only price. You think Microsoft and Sony won't have cheaper SKUs? You think 499 will be the only or the cheapest SKU? That's a stretch as well. They'll have cheaper options.
Nintendo has been in red for several quarters now, and the Wii U is sold at a (minimal) loss. A price drop would mean a much higher "games per console sold" ratio is needed.
H_Prestige
Banned
Sony/MS is now the equivalent of Sony during those gens. The situation hasn't changed for Nintendo. Unless they can strike fire again like the Wii, we're looking at another GC/n64.
And very probably, PS4 and 720 will have a shitty first year with crappy ports and many many 1 hour update and bricks, and they will have a slow first year sale to, except despite all that, they will be future proof and the new hot shit for the years to come. WiiU problem is not that it could have a slow start. It's that it boarded on a sinking ship.
Also everything is in the vapor. 3ds was slow to start, with a poor launch, but we knew what was coming. Even if some games took forever like Kid Icarus or paper Mario. It had an horizon.
Honestly not trolling, but why do people think early PS3 ports of PS2/original-Xbox games looked and played worse? Because they definitely did not. Worse than Xbox360, mostly yeah, but not ps2/xbox1.
Remember, we are comparing 2012 WiiU to 2006 Ps360, not 2012WiiU to 2013 Ps720.
gamergirly
Member
A substantial chunk of their losses is from the yen/dollar conversions, not related to them going into "panic mode"
metalslimer
Member
Or Oblivion, Dead Rising, Viva Pinata, F.E.A.R., and Hitman.
I think Nintendo would be happy with another N64 generation, selling 30+ million and having a ton of games with insane attach rates. I don't think any console manufactuer will break 60 next generaton and think they all will end up coming pretty equal in the end.
SolarPowered
Member
What did Nintendo do to lose a billion last time?
The 360 had pretty decent offerings in the first six months iirc. They certainly made the system feel like a real generational jump.
Did it really have all that in it's first six months/year? Oblivion and Dead Rising really blew people's socks off. That much I remember.
You can make the same argument with WiiU having ZombiU and COD Black Ops 2. What I'm saying is the 360 did not have a robust lineup of titles in its first year of existence compared to what the PS2 had. I remember people criticizing MS for killing the original Xbox when the 360 came out, due to its more substantial library.
I mentioned Oblivion. Viva Piñata was a bust, sales and popularity wise.
I feel Nintendo really has to tease some titles before E3. Even Titles early in development. Just get some of the core games excited and willing to purchase it now. Once E3 comes and we see next gen xbox games and maybe ps4 games its going to be a lot harder to convince that market to go for a WiiU. Mario and Zelda can only do so much
Projectjustice
Banned
Actually they were. Thats why Xbox 360 was being labelled Xbox 1.5 and Neogaf was waiting on PS3 E3 presentation to destroy it.
$599.99 happened and all hell broke loose. lol
James Sawyer Ford
Banned
There's nothing Nintendo can do.
They are trying to play catch up to 7 year old consoles. How is that a good strategy? Why would third parties invest in a Wii U version of a multiplatform release when black ops can't even manage to make a dent in software sales on the system? Why would gamers want to migrate over from their 7 year old consoles with more robust online features and achievements to a new system where ports are generally below par?
Nintendo's entire strategy with the Wii U is at fault because it doesn't try to progress or innovate in areas that matter to third party publishers and core gamers, the supposed audiences they were trying to woo with the Wii U.
And it will get even worse once next-gen PS4/720 systems hit. No third party is going to invest any money in a Wii U port as these consoles pick up momentum and last-gen sales diminish. Nintendo only looks out for Nintendo's interests yet again, it's why no third party has very much faith in them gen after gen.
Wii U is going to be seen as a failure for the core and the casual, leaving them with the GameCube audience. People predicting it won't sell much more than the GC are right on the money. I don't expect anything more than 40-50 million tops, with the next Xbox and Sony consoles selling over 80-100 million each.
Things could have ended up very different if only Nintendo had decided to seriously invest in more first party studios and backed a more powerful and progressive console. There would have been genuine excitement at least from core gamers, even if they couldn't manage to convince the casual audience again (which was always a long shot). Always bet on the audience that keeps coming back. That strategy is winning for Sony and Microsoft.
The Saturn was more successful than the N64?
Well, Nintedo isn't Microsoft. They have a generally harder time securing western third-party support. With that said, while Oblivion was a good game, it was also a port. I believe some of those other games may have been ports as well like Fight Night Round 3. As for Wii, yeah, we know about Metroid Prime 3 and Mario Galaxy, but those games didnt't release until August and November of 2007. We knew about Smash Bros Brawl a year before but had to wait like 6 months to see the first trailer at E3. Unfortunately, Wii had a pathetic launch lineup too so it kind of needed to have some big games announced early on to help make up for it.
So far , we know about titles like Lego City, Pikmin 3, Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate, Wonderful 101, Aliens: Colonial Marines, Need for Speed, F1 2011, Rayman Legends, Ghost Recon Online, Game & Wario, Injustice, Project Cars, Project Nova (apparently), Smash Bros 4, Bayonetta 2, and Dragon Quest X for Wii U. We've also known that Retro Studios, EAD Tokyo, and Monolith Soft are working on Wii U projects as well.
We also know that Nintendo has made preperations to increase its productivty by restructuring itself and expanding its development teams some time in 2013.
Yeah, Sony, Microsoft and in particular Nintendo all need to realize that new consoles and handhelds REQUIRE A HORIZON (aka having a semblance of being future proof) to keep general doom and gloom at bay. Sony has failed to create an appealing horizon for the Vita and Nintendo has until E3 2013 or it'll have similar perception to the Vita, unfortunately.
metalslimer
Member
People need to get their history right. If you are going to say Gamecube sales don't say a number double that. And LOL at the idea that both of the other two will somehow sell 80-100 million when Apple, Google, Samsung, etc. are all becoming much bigger factors.
Future proof? Such a thing doesn't exist. With smartphones and tablets, a new feature is being added every couple of months. Unless you mean graphics wise, than Vita already did that.
The online modes for many popular multiplatform games have large numbers of users on the PS3/Xbox 360.
Devs will support the next gen successors of those consoles early on just for that reason alone. Very few core console gamers will get a Nintendo console to play multiplatform games online.
How do you know this?
$499+ would pretty much be death. I would hope that the companies saw what happened with the PS3 early on.
There will probably be SKUs that are $500+ but I think it's not realistic to think that there won't be any SKUs that will be of a lower price.
Heh, I highly doubt that the next Xbox will only have SKUs that are $500+. That's a really big "what if".
Maybe even worst, because I think Patcher has an agenda. Gafers that keep doing this are just ignoring the data for the sake of ignoring it.
Steve Youngblood
Member
Yeah, that NeoGAF person sure is the worst.
True, but the panic mode is still part of it. If the 3DS could sell more without the panic mode, the yen/dollar conversions wouldn't matter.
And Nintendo needs to deal with the current yen/dollar conversions. Face it, the dollar won't go back to the old strength, I would be surprised if it ever cross over 1.10 CHF to $ again. Iwata needs to find ways to make money with the current weak dollar, or alternatively find a more healthy market.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
You missed this generations best game - Chromehounds - which came out around July 2006. And yes, i'm serious (well, until it was taken offline)
Projectjustice
Banned
Really? lol
metalslimer
Member
What data?
Not really... The Wii U version of COD isn't a major improvement over what's on the 360 and PS3.
COD2 though was a major improvement over what was on last gen consoles though.
Of course it didn't but it had many games early on that felt like next gen experiences.
You can't really say the same for the Wii U.
I meant software support-wise. I hope Nintendo does something positively dramatic before they get to the point where a new announcement has minimal impact (ie Dead or Alive 5 for Vita).
GTA 3 was a PS2. GTA 4 was on the PS3. GTA V on the.. PS3 as well? It doesn't look good. Once they release a main title, they have 3-4 more years of milking to do. Only after that will we get an actual next-gen GTA. That's so long in the future that it could probably be on the next-next gen console.
Then we have shit like "Destiny", the next-gen title from Bungie and Activision.. on the 360. I can't find these huge mega-hit Orbis/Durango titles hidden anywhere unless you think KZ4 is going to do it.
metalslimer
Member
People buy consoles to play games and have fun, not for next gen experiences. There's a reason old consoles generally outsell the newer ones.
Developer support shifts from generation to generation. There's very little loyalty and cemented ties. It's never been a sure thing to count on the support of publisher/developers X from one generation to another.
Cheaper options have never worked out. See the discontinued 20gb PS3 and sales of the core 360. See the recent reports of Wii U basic sales.
For all intents and purposes the cheaper SKU's have been more useful for marketing purposes than for getting install bases increased.
Heh, PGR 3 and COD2 weren't weak at all.
If anything what you are saying was more so due to the dominance that the PS2 had at the time with many thinking the PS3 would just stomp all over the 360.
James Sawyer Ford
Banned
I said it would sell 40-50 TOPS. I wouldn't be surprised if it sold less than that, maybe 25-35 million, closer to GC territory. For the record, I think it will do better than the GameCube, but only marginally so.
PS3 and 360 have sold 70 million consoles each this gen and they are in no way competing directly with Apple, Google, or Samsung because none of those companies can compete on how Sony and MS play the game, which requires massive investment over years to establish platforms, services, and game studios that can only be found on their platform.
Apple, Google, and Samsung are more directly competing with Nintendo and offering cheaper pick up and play titles. This has no real impact on Sony or Microsoft's bread and butter audience.
80-100 million for both isn't out of the question especially if some of Nintendo's previous audience and marketshare moves over.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Not good IMO. It doesn't have any upcoming software that will drive sales; Pikminhas never been a killer app that sold a lot or drove hardware sales, for instance. I'd imagine the new WiiFit and similar games will also sale less than the original Wii versions; IMO that market has moved on and doesn't seem nearly as interested in the WiiU.
Meanwhile we'll probably continue seeing big multi console titles like Far Cry 3 and Dark Souls 2 stick to the 360/PS3. And while the next CoD will be on the WiiU it's hard to see it doing particularly well; people like playing with their friends, and I don't see the WiiU tempting that market.
Meanwhile we'll probably continue seeing big multi console titles like Far Cry 3 and Dark Souls 2 stick to the 360/PS3. And while the next CoD will be on the WiiU it's hard to see it doing particularly well; people like playing with their friends, and I don't see the WiiU tempting that market.
The reason is because they cost less. People absolutely want next gen. When the next gen COD releases out you can bet many people will want new consoles specifically to play it. And guess what, they aren't going to be buying it on the Wii U.
According to your logic, people would still be buying the PS2.
lol, thanks for the answer.
Steve Youngblood
Member
What I was getting at is just that -- in general -- I find it silly to call out a forum collectively, particularly when posting on it. "People on this forum can sure be fools, am I right? Not me, of course. I'm exempt because I'm the one calling it out."
Projectjustice
Banned
Nope, Xbox 360 launch titles were really bad graphically. Xbox 360 was being labelled Xbox 1.5 cause they really didnt look next gen. They were OG Xbox games with a few more bells and whistles. PS2 had nothing to do with why everyone thought PS3 graphically would stomp all over 360. It was the weak ass launch games and the previous year Sony showed off that infamous Killzone video.
Love the selective memory some of you guys have. lol
But next gen experiences (or just overall "fresh" experiences) justify buying a new console.
You say that as if next gen experiences =/= "more games" or "more fun". It's all of those things.
As you said, people buy consoles to have fun. If there's nothing on a new console that looks more fun than what someone already has, why would they buy that console?
By "next gen experiences" I don't just mean graphics alone.
...Because of it being a transition period with a good number being fine with the console(s) they already have; especially if the consoles are continuing to get support.
In all fairness, Call of Duty Black Ops 2 was a straight port for Wii U done by Treyarch, whereas Call of Duty 2 was an exclusive for Xbox 360. The current-gen consoles in 2005 received a spin-off version. Infinity Ward handled the Xbox 360 version while Treyarch did the others.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Okay, more serious answer, here's *everything* officially announced as of now. Looking this stuff up there's way more DD games than I thought initially?
Q1 2013
Aban Hawkins & the 1,001 Spikes (Nicalis)
Aliens: Colonial Marines (Sega)
bit.trip presents Runner 2: Future Legend of Rhythm Alien (Gaijin Games)
Cloudberry Kingdom (Pwnee Studios)
Dream Pinball II 3D (Topware)
F1 Race Stars (Codemasters)
Fist of the North Star: Ken's Rage 2 (Tecmo Koei)
Game & Wario (Nintendo)
Jett Tailfin Racing (Maximum Games)
LEGO City Undercover (Nintendo)
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (Capcom)
Mutant Mudds Deluxe (Renegade Kid)
Need for Speed: Most Wanted (Electronic Arts)
Rayman Legends (Ubisoft)
Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2 (City Interactive)
The Amazing Spider-Man (Activision)
The Cave (Sega)
Wii Fit U (Nintendo)
Wii U Panorama View (Nintendo)
Zumba Fitness Core (Majesco)
Q2 2013
Dragon Quest X Online: Rise of the Five Tribes (Square Enix)
Injustice: Gods Among Us (Warner Bros)
Pikmin 3 (Nintendo)
Sacrilegium (Topware)
TBA 2013
8-Bit Boy (AwesomeBlade Software)
Biker Bash (Slightly Mad Studios)
CastleStorm (Zen Studios)
Karateka (Liquid Entertainment)
Ostrich Island (MeDungeon Games)
Project Cars (Slightly Mad Studios)
Spin the Bottle (Knapnok Games)
The Pinball Arcade (Farsight Studios)
The Wonderful 101 (Nintendo)
Two Brothers (Ackkstudios)
TBA
Bayonetta 2 (Nintendo)
Pier Solar HD (Watermelon Co.)
Star Beast: The Stellar War (Pixel Entertainment)
Super Smash Bros. (Nintendo)
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Online (Ubisoft)
"On Hold" (ie: canceled)
Metro: Last Light (THQ)
There were a few that were (like GUN or Tony Hawk) but the majority of them were big steps up graphically.
All of the EA sports games were big steps up graphically. PGR 3's in car view was a big step up graphically. Call of Duty 2 was a big step up as well.
I honestly don't understand where you are coming from. There were many good looking games.
Heh, the same could be said for you.
Again, there were many good looking games. How could you say that there weren't when many early 360 games ended up going on to the PS3 as well?
Do you feel that the PS3 didn't look "next gen" early on either?
That's not what I remember. Kameo was clearly significantly ahead of anything on PS2/Xbox/GC.
The Xbox 1.5 thing was because of rumors of PS3 being so much more powerful than Xbox 360 that it would make it appear only a half of a generation leap. That didn't turn out to be the case.