Butts-a-plenty
Banned
We have Seven.
-
Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
Hurricane Season 2015 |OT|
- Thread starter Relix
- Start date
- Status
maquiladora
Member
Interesting track but it will probably be shredded by a wall of sheer before it gets to the islands.
Butts-a-plenty
Banned
Tropical Storm Grace!
maquiladora
Member
Dat Euro tho
perfectchaos007
Member
There's no way that remnants of Grace will turn into a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane
maquiladora
Member
It's not the remnants of Grace. It's a home grown Gulf storm. A long way off though, just a model storm at the moment. A good chance it won't happen.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Give it to Miami, they need the rain. Southwest Florida, however, does not.
perfectchaos007
Member
Looks like the low will drift towards New Orleans. I'm sure that will freak out some people, but they should easily handle a TS unless the storm surge is crazy high
Yeah, we'll be fine. It'll be just enough to have Monday off (hopefully).
Dedication Through Light
Member
Wonder if it will come up to va, were getting 1-2 in rain this weekend, and if we get 1-2 more further we'll finally make up our rain deficient.
smokeandmirrors
Banned
We have Eleven
edit now Joaquin
edit now Joaquin
maquiladora
Member
Could be an interesting one.
Butts-a-plenty
Banned
maquiladora
Member
18Z GFS has it at 948mb approaching landfall Virginia/Maryland....
Dedication Through Light
Member
Im so confused by this, we got 4 inches of rain today (in addition to like 2+ this weekend), everysite I go to for this next event puts so many different scenarios, either Joaquin will bring us nothing or some say we in western virginia will get another 4+ inches...
18Z GFS has it at 948mb approaching landfall Virginia/Maryland....
I don't think it will be that strong approaching virginia/maryland. I expect it to be around cat 1 or 2 when it reaches that area.
maquiladora
Member
That's because the models don't have a good grip yet on where it will go beyond the next few days. Should be much clearer in the next day or two.
Meanwhile, latest HWRF is showing a landfall as a sub-940mb major hurricane Saturday night. That model is known for overdoing things though.
OuterLimits
Gold Member
Latest GFS appears to take it near Norfolk on Sunday before moving across much of southern VA. Obviously since I live in Richmond, I'm hoping this isn't accurate. Chances are it won't be.
I believe the European still keeps it out to sea while a secondary low pressure forms near the NC coast? Although that was earlier today. A new model run should be out soon.
Looks like a rainy weekend. Just hoping the high winds and Joaquin stay away.
I believe the European still keeps it out to sea while a secondary low pressure forms near the NC coast? Although that was earlier today. A new model run should be out soon.
Looks like a rainy weekend. Just hoping the high winds and Joaquin stay away.
Chaotic-Strike
Banned
This one looks like the real deal unlike Erika which was never above a sheared mess.
Anyone from South Carolina to Rhode Island needs to watch it.
Anyone from South Carolina to Rhode Island needs to watch it.
I'm in RI and all the meteorologist are playing the waiting game. Most don't expect to have anything worthwhile to say until Thursday or Friday given the slow moving nature of the storm. It is for the best since I've heard people compare this storm to Sandy and that comparison is just silly.
smokeandmirrors
Banned
Whatever this does, wherever it lands, it's going to dump a lot of rain on a soon to be very very saturated area.
this is gonna be fun.
this is gonna be fun.
Chaotic-Strike
Banned
The eye is starting to pop out.
Some models put areas of eastern Virginia over 20inches of rain between the storms this week and Joaquin.
Chaotic-Strike
Banned
Yeah that is the reasonable thing to do considering the evolution of this trough is gonna determine where it heads.
There are so many pieces of energy that could influence the track right now.
OuterLimits
Gold Member
So far the National weather service in Wakefield Virginia doesn't even mention the hurricane in their hazardous weather outlook for much of Virginia. They mention heavy rain this weekend from a possible noreaster. Makes sense though since it is about 5 days away still with pretty large model differences.
In fact Sunday looks quite decent in the forecast. Partly Sunny with a 30% chance of showers for Richmond. Hope that is true.
I honestly think the forecast would be better if it said: Partly Sunny with a 30% chance of Jaoquin totally wrecking shit in your area.
Tough forecast for them no doubt. So many players on the field for this time period. I'm hopeful the hurricane doesn't get pulled towards the SE or Mid-Atlantic coast.
Where is the nice wind shear that helped us out all summer.
In fact Sunday looks quite decent in the forecast. Partly Sunny with a 30% chance of showers for Richmond. Hope that is true.
I honestly think the forecast would be better if it said: Partly Sunny with a 30% chance of Jaoquin totally wrecking shit in your area.
Tough forecast for them no doubt. So many players on the field for this time period. I'm hopeful the hurricane doesn't get pulled towards the SE or Mid-Atlantic coast.
Where is the nice wind shear that helped us out all summer.
maquiladora
Member
Latest Euro model takes it down to 943mb near the Bahamas then sends it out to sea. Latest GFS, UKMET, CMC, HWRF, GFDL, NAVGEM and JMA all show a US east coast landfall around North Carolina/Virginia.
So the Euro is the odd man out but can't be ignored since it's one of the very best models.
So the Euro is the odd man out but can't be ignored since it's one of the very best models.
OuterLimits
Gold Member
Exactly. The Euro is arguably the best model, but it is unusual for it to be alone. It will either be a big winner or bust badly this time.
Does the Euro still develop a secondary low near NC that brings heavy rain to NC and VA though?
Also, the GFS was in the Euro camp I believe until the last 2 runs. Typically the GFS is rather poor beyond 3 days, but I think it got an upgrade recently? Not sure if it has helped the accuracy at medium to long range.
I won't get too worried as long as the Euro continues to show a miss.
maquiladora
Member
Hurricane warnings out for the Bahamas now. Latest forecast track pointing towards a mid-atlantic landfall. NHC are not buying the Euro's out-to-sea track at the moment.
Snkfanatic
Banned
Hampton Roads VA checking in, rather curious where this one is heading.
maquiladora
Member
Too early to know yet, but I'd keep a close eye on it. This is what one model is showing at the moment.
OuterLimits
Gold Member
Richmond here. Hoping we aren't getting another Isabel like situation. Good news I suppose is the storm should peak in 72 hours and then start weakening some according to the NHC forecast. It will likely encounter wind shear if it gets close to the coast.
Reading the NHC discussion really shows the low confidence they have with this storm. The Euro along with some GFS ensemble members keep the storm OTS. This is making them very cautious when talking about potential impacts with east coast.
maquiladora
Member
Latest models. Take your pick.
Dedication Through Light
Member
I think the usual places will end up flooding since it seems its going to be a big rain event.
perfectchaos007
Member
Yeah really.
It's forecast to be a Major Hurricane by Saturday
EGR2 would push water straight up the Delaware River and flood Philly something fierce, especially with all the rain already falling. Irene was close to doing the same a few years back but it stayed too far east. Sandy was close too but came in too far North, I believe.
Huge odds against it though.
Latest models. Take your pick.
CMC2 is nightmare scenario for CT...
Panthalassic
Member
Currently in the watch zone for Joaquin. So far it's pretty breezy and rained pretty heavily for five minutes. I'm in a place built for it though. Stay safe and take this one seriously everyone.
- Status