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[OverBlood 3]

Maybe if you're a PC gamer which is a far minority, even then this just doesn't ring true for most people.

Well the PC isn't a console first and foremost. Sony and Microsoft's first party stuff has been lacklustre sans bloodborne. Nintendo struggles in the 3rd party department but even then you've got stuff like the wonderful 101 and bayo 2 which are weird and interesting in their own rights. I honestly think Nintendo as far as software has gone have made all the right moves, but the wii u as a console is just not a desirable console for whatever reason lack of key franchises like call of duty and sports titles I'd guess.

 

[TI82]

Well the PC isn't a console first and foremost. Sony and Microsoft's first party stuff has been lacklustre sans bloodborne. Nintendo struggles in the 3rd party department but even then you've got stuff like the wonderful 101 and bayo 2 which are weird and interesting in their own rights. I honestly think Nintendo as far as software has gone have made all the right moves, but the wii u as a console is just not a desirable console for whatever reason lack of key franchises like call of duty and sports titles I'd guess.

It lacks 99% of third party games which people (including myself) do want. It's not all about exclusives or even first party titles.

 

[pa22word]

Well it's also going to include what's essentially a full Mario game made by Nintendo too. Even if you never download a level you'll get what's probably a great single player experience out of it.

People keep saying this, but have basically nothing other than a completely meaningless and out of context total level count to go by.

Who knows, maybe I end up eating my hat on this and the 100 levels end up being totally up to full release mario standards. If that's the case, ill buy it. But as of right now, I cant be anything but skeptical of the quality of these levels when they're clearly selling this as a creation kit first and foremost.

 

[Shiggy]

It will do well for certain. Having to create levels yourself severely limits the mass appeal though. It's not as easy as it may seem to create great level design. That's why the recent Rayman games for example paled compared to the Mario platformers.

 

[RagnarokX]

If the 100 levels are anything like the ones shown during E3 and the NWC, it will indeed be the biggest Mario game ever. The E3/NWC levels have been confirmed to be included on the disc so it looks promising.

Huh? A lot of the levels at E3 were very small. I wouldn't count on most of them being more than samples to get your creativity going.

For comparison:
- Super Mario Bros. - 32 levels
- Super Mario Bros. 3 - 90 Levels
- Super Mario World - 72 Levels
- New Super Mario Bros. U - 82 Levels

With the majority of SMW's levels being twice as long as SMB3's and NSMBU's being even bigger than that. Also, the amount of unique tools (gimmicks, enemies, themes, etc) is a small fraction of what's available recent 2D Marios.

But we should still be able to make a ton of great levels with it. It certainly goes further than I expected Nintendo to go with it. My most anticipated game of the year, easily.

 

[mario_O]

I don't think the number of people who enjoy creating levels is very big, nor is the WiiU install base.

 

[Circinus]

I believe Super Mario Maker will be tiny.

On a more serious note, I think it will be a fun game/level editor with pretty much endless replay value and I expect it to do moderately well commercially (in terms of sales, I'd guess around the 1-2 million range), but probably far from being as successful (commercially) as Mario Kart 8 / Smash Bros.

could end up being a bit of both... so... littleBig?

Yeah.

 

[BronzeWolf]

What's not to love with this game?

It's got levels created by NCL (The NWC levels were created by NOA staff, not NCL) + level making madness.

I think it's worth it and I hope it does good

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

I believe Super Mario Maker will be tiny.

could end up being a bit of both... so... littleBig?

 

[pupcoffee]

Realistically, this is going to be the worst Mario gameplay ever put out by Nintendo. Most of the levels will suck. The ones shown at E3 weren't exactly fine works of craft, either.

 

[Bjoern the Smexy]

Haha, ok, I admit it. They technically did "sell millions". However, compare this to 32 million sold for GTA V or 18 million for Advanced Warfare. The Last of Us sold a million more units than New Super Luigi U in less than three weeks after release, and is probably around 10 million now.

Again, it'll sell well, but I doubt it'll move WiiU off of shelves.

How about we don't?
Two completely different genres.
Two completely different games.
Two completely different audiences.

I don't think that Super Mario Maker will sell 10 million units. I don't think it'll even sell 5 million.
But it will sell millions.
If you want to compare numbers, compare attach rates.
Don't just throw some words around that add nothing to the actual discussion and actually create confusion (and sometimes anger) among those discussing the topic.

 

[OverBlood 3]

It lacks 99% of third party games which people (including myself) do want. It's not all about exclusives or even first party titles.

Yep I pointed that out, I'm just saying the wii u line up holds up against that anyway. Things are just kicking into gear on the ps4/Xbone in terms of decent third party games, well thinking about it how many great third party games have come out? I'm just curious because I can't think of many right now. I will say indie games have saved me in terms of having great games to play on my ps4. Rocket league has been great, binding of Isaac rebirth has been amazing I play that game every day but I loved the PC version so I'm happy with both my purchases I just think the wii u line up has been great so far.

 

[BronzeWolf]

How about we don't?
Two completely different genres.
Two completely different games.
Two completely different audiences.

I don't think that Super Mario Maker will sell 10 million units. I don't think it'll even sell 5 million.
But it will sell millions.
If you want to compare numbers, compare attach rates.
Don't just throw some words around that add nothing to the actual discussion and actually create confusion (and sometimes anger) among those discussing the topic.

But how can we then move the goalpoasts anymore?

A "Mario doesn't sell anymore"
B "NSMB and NSLB sold millions"
A "LOL but not GTA Millions so not a success"
B "But being a million seller is still a success"
A "LOL it depends on how you define success"
...

 

[Drackhorn]

I'm having a hard time seeing this as a system seller.

 

[E-phonk]

I can't imagine it will outsell smash and kart. Actually having to make or find levels to play is a fairly high mental barrier.
It could do Splatoon numbers but I don't think we're talking ">50% attach rate" crazy success here

Splatoon might possibly be > smash Wii U, so what you say here contradicts itself a bit.

Smash has a +/- 33% attach rate btw. New Super Mario U and Mario Kart are at +/- 50%

 

[DrWong]

I don't think the number of people who enjoy creating levels is very big, nor is the WiiU install base.

I think based on my time with the game that it will push more people to create than we think because the interface is so easy and fun to use that there's no barrier to enjoy this aspect of the game. The interface in this game is a powerful fun feature and not an hurdle to deal with, as a player.

The other thing is, as someone stated, that if a Trackmania game can work content wise with most of the people not caring creating levels, a way more interface friendly Mario creator, on its own platform, will do very well.

I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of this calendar year the game is already at 2M. And I think I could be conservative...

 

[Chindogg]

It'll do well by Wii U's standards and hopefully help keep Wii U around for another year or two when NX hits.

 

[TI82]

well thinking about it how many great third party games have come out? I'm just curious because I can't think of many right now.

Hmm, this year games that I have enjoyed or seem to be favorably enjoyed: Wticher 3, Arkham Knight, Project Cars, Bloodborne, Rocket League (like you said), The Vanishing of Ethan Carter, Xenoverse, Dying Light, and many others

Basically I don't want this to become a "list warz" but the non-Nintendo systems do have strong lineups with much more varying games in different genres for all tastes. There aren't these massive droughts like you're seeing on the Wii U (and to a much lesser extent the 3DS). Like the rest of the year I'm looking forward to Just Cause 3, Mad Max, Fallout 4 and Persona 5. On the Wii U... Xenoblade? That's it for me.

 

[Jigorath]

It's success will be limited being stuck on a dead platform but I think it can sell a couple million copies.

 

[John Bender]

I realize that that even nintendo itself has acknowledged that its too late for the wiiu and its time to move on essentially as fast as they can build whats next.

With that said,

I believe that SMM will have an insane attach rate and do amazingly well for the small console install base.

I think that it will capture gamers imagination in the way that only nintendo can and go on to to be a legendary title in the nintendo catalog.

I cant help but think that while a level creator is nothing new, it will be THE game that defines the use of the wiiU game pad and thus the system to its maximum potential.

I think that SMM will be the single biggest game on the wiiu when all is said and done

What do you guys think? Just another mario game or a massive point in nintendo history catalog wise?

Sounds like an official marketing line directly from Nintendo.

 

[E-phonk]

It's success will be limited being stuck on a dead platform but I think it can sell a couple million copies.

That's indeed a realistic prediction.

 

[BGBW]

Everyone seems to forget this is the 30th Anniversary game.

Of course they're going to be pushing it. Expect Mario Maker and general Mario campaigns in September.

 

[Malio]

I have no idea how it's going to do. I've never really liked the franchise, and I have no interest in it at all. But I just honestly don't see many people buying this except for nostalgia sake. I'm predicting, 600k-800k.

 

[marc^o^]

I have no idea how it's going to do. I've never really liked the franchise, and I have no interest in it at all. But I just honestly don't see many people buying this except for nostalgia sake. I'm predicting, 600k-800k.

LTD in Japan?

 

[E-phonk]

I have no idea how it's going to do. I've never really liked the franchise, and I have no interest in it at all. But I just honestly don't see many people buying this except for nostalgia sake. I'm predicting, 600k-800k.

Do you follow sales and/or nintendo at all? It will do that in japan alone.

 

[Celine]

I will drink my piss if it will end up selling more than

Spoiler

10

million.

 

[GlamFM]

I think it will be fun dicking around with for an hour or so and leave you wanting fucking SUPER MARIO WORLD 2.

 

[E-phonk]

I will drink my piss if it will end up selling more than

Spoiler

10

million.

Just for archiving purpose: Including sales on NX if it gets ported?

 

[RagnarokX]

But how can we then move the goalpoasts anymore?

A "Mario doesn't sell anymore"
B "NSMB and NSLB sold millions"
A "LOL but not GTA Millions so not a success"
B "But being a million seller is still a success"
A "LOL it depends on how you define success"
...

By putting wings on them?

 

[Portugeezer]

Super Mario Maker is not a Wii U game, it's its own platform, we will see it on future Nintendo devices.

 

[Plinko]

I think it will do quite well.

I think it would have been a better idea, though, to somehow get this out on 3DS as well.

 

[Celine]

Just for archiving purpose: Including sales on NX if it gets ported?

Eh eh eh for the system cited in OP.

 

[Diprosalic]

I saw a lot of people who aren't exactly Nintendo fanatics flipping their shit at being able to make Mario "boards." I think it'll have quite a bit of appeal. But I mean, it's a Wii U game so it's still going to sell badly overall.

many games would like to sell "badly overall" if that's what the top wiiu titles did.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

Eh eh eh for the system cited in OP.

quick OP, change all references in your post from wii u to NX. This thread has just become about the greater good!

 

[BGBW]

Realistically, this is going to be the worst Mario gameplay ever put out by Nintendo. Most of the levels will suck. The ones shown at E3 weren't exactly fine works of craft, either.

The levels shown at E3 were made by various Nintendo staff, not just the developers. They were there to demonstrate a variety of ideas of what could be done with the software, not as an example of Nintendo's top level design craft. Chances are many won't be in the final game since the NWC levels being added to the final game was as a special treat to the two Treehouse members who made them because Miyamoto and Tezuka were impressed.

 

[Screamapillar]

It's a system seller, no doubt. Has the sort of all-ages appeal and simplicity to it that Mario Kart has. I think it'll sell somewhere in between Kart 8 and Smash Wii U, making it the second or third highest-selling game for the platform. Had it released in 2014, and not the year before the system is likely to be replaced by a successor, it might have had a chance to turn around the fortunes of the system.

 

[Swass]

I think it will do well, but for me personally, I don't want to create levels and I don't want to play user created levels.. so for me I'm passing on it and I have purchased every Mario game to date. Now if this included a full game and Mario Maker was a mode included with it then that would be a completely different scenario.

Side note, I could see this being included as a mode in future Mario games like they did with Mario Bros on the GBA games, maybe starting with the NX version of whatever flagship Mario game is made for it.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

I'm thinking Super Mario Maker will have lifetime sales of around 2.5 million. It's going to be a pretty big Wii U title. I remember predicting months ago (a few months before E3) this game would be Wii U's big release for the second half of 2015 and people thought I was crazy.

When the sequel (or "deluxe version") is released on NX, it'll have much more sales potential. Hopefully Nintendo can get it out during the first year or two of that system's launch.

 

[Screamapillar]

I will drink my piss if it will end up selling more than

Spoiler

10

million.

Well, you'll never have to do that. Since that would mean every single Wii U owner would have to buy the game, and then some. Even if Wii U sells 3 or 4 million more units before it's finally over with, that would be an unrealistic attach rate. Even Mario Kart 8 is owned by around 55% of all Wii U. I doubt Mario Maker will reach 60% or higher, even if it sells like gangbusters.

 

[SerTapTap]

Splatoon might possibly be > smash Wii U, so what you say here contradicts itself a bit.

Smash has a +/- 33% attach rate btw. New Super Mario U and Mario Kart are at +/- 50%

I know splatoon is over a million, but is it really over 3.5m(and that's as of late January)? For Mario Maker I'm thinking over a million but probably less than 4, hard to say though. Not really sure how much the "you make the game" aspect will reduce/improve sales relative to a "normal" mario.

 

[Bjoern the Smexy]

When the sequel (or "deluxe version") is released on NX, it'll have much more sales potential. Hopefully Nintendo can get it out during the first year or two of that system's launch.

Not that I'm necessarily disagreeing, but how would it have more sales potential on NX?
First of all we still don't know 100% if the NX is a home console, a handheld, both or neither.
Second of all, are we sure the NX is going to sell? Or at least sell better than Wii U?

I know that I'd totally but this game again in a heartbeat if it was annoucned as an enhanced NX port with more graphic/physics styles, more items/enemies, etc.
But I wouldn't exactly say that the sequel/"deluxe version" released on NX will have more (or less) sales potential than it has on Wii U.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

I'm assuming NX is multiple pieces of hardware using the same OS and ecosystem. So, there's an NX home console and an NX portable.

I think the sales potential for any Nintendo title will be greater next gen, because Nintendo is going to charge significantly less up front for these systems than they did for Wii U (and probably less than 3DS as well).

Obviously all speculation, but that's the point of this thread.

 

[Lord Azrael]

Had it released in 2014, and not the year before the system is likely to be replaced by a successor, it might have had a chance to turn around the fortunes of the system.

Let's not get crazy.

 

[E-phonk]

I know splatoon is over a million, but is it really over 3.5m(and that's as of late January)?

Smash is at 3.65 since March 31, 2015 (source nintendo financial briefing).
Splatoon sold 1 million in it's first 3 weeks and kept up well with strong legs. Some people predict it'll hit 2 million in august, I think a bit later personally - but I can see it doing good numbers again this holiday carrying it to 3 million LTD, which is very close.

In japan splatoon will probably be bigger than smash though.

 

[Snatch1414]

I think it absolutely will be huge, though I think it will be one of those titles where about half the people that buy it barely touch it after a week. I know myself personally I wouldn't build any levels and maybe check in once in awhile to play the most popular ones, but that's about it.

 

[Oberon]

It's just a "level creator tho"
I see it doing pretty well, and the community will probably big enough to get a lot of fanmade levels, but will it be big? Doubt it since it's on the Wiiu. What a bummer of a system.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

Let's not get crazy.

I do think Nintendo have an interesting tendency to sometimes be "one software generation behind" when it comes to really proving the value of their hardware though. Super Mario Maker could have been huge if it launched with the system instead of NSMBU. It's kind of a similar argument to the one people have made for Skyward Sword instead of Twilight Princess for motion controls.

 

[evilromero]

It could be one of the Wii U's top selling, which would still be an achievement on its own. Not sure of it'll do more than MK8 though. Definitely possible. It might have more universal appeal.

 

[Farmboy]

Mario Maker is the kind of game that makes perfect sense for tablet/mobile. Hopefully Nintendo makes a version of the game for android/ios. I don't think it will meet it's sales potential otherwise. It'll be a shame to see Mario Maker become an oddity within the Wii U library like Mario Paint was for SNES.

Mario is the very definition of a game that needs precision button controls, but! You're on to something.

An app that allowed you to make New levels but not play them (and not share them, other than sending them to your Wii U) could work very well and actually boost sales. Won't happen (yet), but that's the kind of synergy I hope Nintendo might be open to in the future.

 

[BronzeWolf]

In terms of sales, I think this + splatoon will help the Wii U life in the near future. Everybody knows Splatoon legs are impressive as heck, but it's aimed at kids now. Will the addition of Mario Maker be the double whammy for Japenese/American families? I know if I had a kid now that wanted to get Splatoon and I saw that the system ALSO has a OG Mario Maker mode, I would be less hesitant to buy it.

I think the content for Mario Maker will be amazing but I wonder what QOL features this game will have. If I'm going to be playing super hard levels, some functionality ala Meatboy would be nice.

Mario Maker really is requiring an OP soon because besides being very excited about what people here can do with it, there is also a lot of misinformation like

I think it will do well, but for me personally, I don't want to create levels and I don't want to play user created levels.. so for me I'm passing on it and I have purchased every Mario game to date. Now if this included a full game and Mario Maker was a mode included with it then that would be a completely different scenario

The game does include levels made by NCL. So it's basically what people want from OG Mario + the maker mode which is amazing.

Mario is the very definition of a game that needs precision button controls, but! You're on to something.

An app that allowed you to make New levels but not play them (and not share them, other than sending them to your Wii U) could work very well and actually boost sales. Won't happen (yet), but that's the kind of synergy I hope Nintendo might be open to in the future.

Nintendo should do this yesterday