Support NeoGAF

[Sho_Nuff82]

It's a pretty big assumption that LIVE will stand still next-gen while Sony marches forward with PSN. No one cares about RROD now, unless the new hardware has its own set of problems, it won't be an issue. MS has plenty of exclusives, and they will try new IP when the generation starts, much like most developers. Their trump card remains Live Arcade, which is very likely to be backwards compatible.

There is too much 360 software scheduled this year for a new console launch, they would be competing with themselves. MS would not launch a console with Halo, the game demands an audience of at least several million as a big chunk of the fanbase are day 1 buyers/online players. Sales would be rate limited by hardware adoption/production.

 

[blizzardjesus]

After this gen, It's really hard for me to even consider a PS4, The ps2 had an amazing library, the ps3 didn't even come close, there are some good games, but most of the popular ones didn't do much for me. I wanted more odd ball japanese titles, and the ps3 didn't deliver. Though I have hope for Tokyo Jungle and Gal-gun.

 

[megamerican]

I agree that while they appear to be locked into next year, this year would have been better as the whole industry is sagging. My biggest hope is that the later it gets pushed, the less Kinect focused their console will be. Seems like Kinect mania has waned considerably since launch.

 

[Lunchbox]

360 is at the peak of its life sales wise

yeah so lets undercut those sales with a new console!

 

[alphaNoid]

When we originally brought this exact idea up a month ago in the 720 rumor thread, I had tried to point out that this is also right up MS's alley when it comes to business structure. I still think this is a very highly likely plan.

Yea it would seem a solid plan for a company attempting to leverage one its few successful "brands" to take over the living room. They already do great with 360 offerings, but what about selling a device to people like our parents? A turn key device easier to setup/use/navigate than even an Xbox console. Kinect 2.0 enabled for high res camera tracking from the couch. Finger movements, precise voice commands to launch media or a good 'ol trusty remote/controller (one of each in each box). Then leverage the success of the Xbox brand by slapping it on the label and offer gaming access, but not that on par with a full console. Boom, you've now got an Xbox for everyone and one priced well into the $99-$149 range making it accessible and impulse enough for anyone... not just gamers.

Do that, then release a full fledged successor to the 360 and get both markets. Slam dunk the existing customers by giving them more of what they have/want, and broaden marketshare by introducing a friendlier, cheaper device that does plainly what a lot of Xbox users today are doing ... media.

Seems logical, but who knows. Also, while I think its stupid to stagger the device releases, its very well known that Apple is very successful with that model. MS could release the Loop then the Durango, or vise versa. Problem there is if Durango is second.. MS is giving Sony free run at first to market and pissing off patiently waiting Xbox loyalists with money in hand. All of this is why I presume they will smarten up and release both at the same going.

Long term they can treat the Durango like a traditional console, but if they choose to ... offer upgraded versions of the Loop on a yearly basis since the price point is basically entry level and impulse by definition.

Question is, are they thinking the same thing and will they pull it off?

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

One can never know how these things may pan out, and we'll definitely be much smarter after all the platforms have been detailed some time next year, but I don't think Microsoft not launching ahead of Sony means much this time around.

Like others have already pointed out, the situation is much different now and Microsoft and Sony are on equal footing (I'd even say that post-Kinect Microsoft is ahead) as far as mind share is concerned. Wii U may or may not be a threat, but as things stand right now, I don't see it capturing a lot of the mainstream core audience (a far more important segment than hard core people who populate places such as NeoGAF).

While it's true that Vita shows Sony finally has the right idea about what current (not next) generation networks and services should be like, the bar will undoubtedly be moved much further when the next generation starts. Considering their past and present achievements in the area and things they have planned for Windows 8, I'd say it's fair to assume that Microsoft will again be the company that sets the standard.

RROD will not be much of a problem, it's in the past now. There would be much more cause for concern if the next Xbox was to launch this year, because then it would run the risk of being perceived as a rushed response to Wii U - which would imply that oversights like the ones that led to RROD are more likely.

When it comes to games, one thing that many people here always seem to overestimate is the importance of first party development. It just doesn't matter that much. The average gamer doesn't give a rat's ass if an exclusive game has been developed internally or by an outside studio. The biggest benefit of owning studios comes from IP ownership so if one of your studios accidentally strikes gold and creates a genuine blockbuster (and it happens extremely rarely and inconsistently, unless you're Blizzard), you don't have to invest a lot of effort into keeping it. It can still be done, as Microsoft's relationship with Epic clearly shows. Looking at their NA launches, out of 18 Xbox 360 launch titles, only 2 have been developed by first party studios (Kameo and PDZ), and out of 12 PS3 launch games, only 1 has been developed internally (Resistance).

That said, Microsoft now has 18 or so internal studios, some with multiple teams, which is much more than what they had back in 2005 (7, if I'm not forgetting someone), and even more than what Sony currently has (15 according to the Wikipedia entry, and that still includes Zipper).

So the next generation will definitely be interesting, and as far as Microsoft goes, I think that Europe is going to be the next big battlefield. Hiring someone like Phil Harrison indicates that rather clearly.

 

[Meier]

The chances of the next Xbox being any less than second in the US are slim to none. They will continue to crush Sony here as the average video game consumer clearly favors MS at this point.

Smart move by MS. The 360 is way too hot currently.

Edit: Just finished reading the entire opening post and it's clear that the OP is delusional.

 

[elcranky]

The chances of the next Xbox being any less than second in the US are slim to none. They will continue to crush Sony here as the average video game consumer clearly favors MS at this point.

Smart move by MS. The 360 is way too hot currently.

Edit: Just finished reading the entire opening post and it's clear that the OP is delusional.

Actually, i would say that it is the folks that argue against the OP that are delusional. Unless there are factors of which we are not aware, not launch in 12 is a tremendous strategic mistake. Everything about the environment, technology base and MS' publicly announced strategies indicate that 2012 is the optimal launch window.

This optimal window is so blatantly obvious that anyone with a reasonable strategic mind can see it (of course that qualifier does rule out 99.99% of folks). Given that, MS must be cooking up something very interesting and secretive to make launching in 13 or later worthwhile.

 

[quest]

The simple answer to why there will be no 2012 launch is everyone outside Intel is having major issues with 28nm. Unless you want a under powered system like 2 360's duct taped together. That and they should get 1 more solid Xmas out of a machine they make money on per unit sold. They should be able to price drop and still make money per unit to keep sales at a reasonable level till fall 2013.

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

Actually, i would say that it is the folks that argue against the OP that are delusional.

It's your prerogative to feel that way, but the OP contains no concerns of genuine relevance to the situation we've been having over the past few years, and certainly not to the situation we have now.

 

[bigtroyjon]

Unless there are factors of which we are not aware

This is all you needed to write as it makes everything else in your post pointless.

 

[NemesisPrime]

They a raking in the money.

If anything... Sony needs to launch first to try to capture the market again.

Like things are going now... MS has nothing to worry about especially if their new machine is BC. All the Live users will just migrate to the new machine. They have an excellent platform and are in a really good position.

It is clear that MS will wait until Windows 8 (desktop, tablets and phones) is launched... I expect the next XBox to tie in with that (it will probably run parts of W8).

 

[Partition]

They don't see Nintendo as a direct competitor anymore

Since when?

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

MS has nothing to worry about especially if their new machine is BC. All the Live users will just migrate to the new machine.

That's a rash statement as well, but I do agree that paying for Live won't necessarily present a big obstacle (that's presuming that they continue with their current model, which we don't know will happen yet). People seem to be forgetting that we're talking about the online platform that has seen a price increase a couple of years ago and everyone (well, not Pachter) was sure that was a dumb move, yet the number of Live Gold subscriptions kept on growing and the sales of Xbox 360 kept on soaring.

 

[Poimandres]

OK, well 'hardcore' I would easily suggest the obvious - Mario, Zelda and Metroid - have you played any of those?

If you are looking for "space game with guns" Metroid would meet your criteria, but sorry, the protagonist is a woman so that might discount it for you.

Be reasonable here. Zelda and Mario might give nods to the hardcore gamer, with some challenging levels and whatnot, but they are very much "games for everybody". Some people crave something a little darker thematically, a little harder, with less hand holding etc.

It doesn't need to be one way or the other. The N64 was THE home of console shooters, and having games like Goldeneye and Perfect Dark helped it immensely. Even the Cube had games like Geist and Eternal Darkness which weren't "dudebro" but did appeal to a "mature" audience.

I can understand Nintendo not wanting to spend their time making games of this sort. The games they make are fun, appeal to a wide audience, and sell well. 3rd parties should step up and provide these experiences. But, if the games don't sell well because the Wii U isn't seen as an appealing prospect by this audience, the 3rd parties are just going to phone it in or not provide support to the machine at all (see: Wii "tests"). It's a lucrative market.

To be fair, I think Sony Microsoft and Nintendo have all struggled to provide a balanced library that appeals to all audiences this generation. Microsofts early attempts like Viva Pinata didn't sell, now that they've had some success with Kinect the software to support it just isn't there. Sony's quirky fun games from previous generations dried up. The Wii lacked "blockbuster" experiences. This is coming from someone who thought Mario Galaxy was one of the very best and most impressive games this generation.

 

[TheOddOne]

That said, Microsoft now has 18 or so internal studios, some with multiple teams, which is much more than what they had back in 2005 (7, if I'm not forgetting someone), and even more than what Sony currently has (15 according to the Wikipedia entry, and that still includes Zipper).

Uhm, what?

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

Uhm, what?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Studios_(game_studio)#Software_development_studios

A lot has been happening over the past few years.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

Both Microsoft and Sony have said they won't be debuting their new hardware at E3 this year.

And sony said the same thing about the Vita.

 

[bigtroyjon]

I'll make it simple for everyone.

Microsoft has the companies' most important product launch in 20 years happening this fall. A new console launch accompanied with the hundreds of millions in marketing that comes along with it wouldn't happen even if the gaming unit wanted it to. Microsoft would be competing with itself for the attention of being that new hot product on the market.

 

[TheOddOne]

A lot has been happening over the past few years.

Ok.

 

[Monumental]

...out of 12 PS3 launch games, only 1 has been developed internally (Resistance).

Resistance is Insomniac dude, so even that wasn't internally developed....and neither was the second game Sony published for PS3's launch...Genji (giant enemy crabs lol). That was developed by Game Republic which is an independent developer.

So ZERO games for PS3's launch were internally developed by Sony's first party studios. That should make some of you rethink your thoughts on the capacity of Sony's first party studios. Having numerous studios with a few heavy hitters still doesn't guarantee that Sony will mandate many launch titles from their studios.

Actually, i would say that it is the folks that argue against the OP that are delusional. Unless there are factors of which we are not aware, not launch in 12 is a tremendous strategic mistake. Everything about the environment, technology base and MS' publicly announced strategies indicate that 2012 is the optimal launch window.

This optimal window is so blatantly obvious that anyone with a reasonable strategic mind can see it (of course that qualifier does rule out 99.99% of folks). Given that, MS must be cooking up something very interesting and secretive to make launching in 13 or later worthwhile.

LOL. Not only is your attitude completely douchey, you have absolutely zero points in favour of your argument. At least give one courtesy reason for why you believe that because your post is so fucking condescending while being laughably devoid of anything meaningful to say.

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

Resistance is Insomniac dude, so even that wasn't internally developed....

Oops, you're right. Although I'm sure Sony will be better at leveraging their first party force this time around, some of them are reportedly already working on launch titles.

 

[jump_button]

Wii U out first is bad news for others the power house never win the gen, its the best cheap and easy to make games for and has the multi platform games

 

[Monumental]

Oops, you're right. Although I'm sure Sony will be better at leveraging their first party force this time around, some of them are reportedly already working on launch titles.

For sure. Sony is fully expecting to release their console close to Microsoft unlike the PS3...which released a year later than the 360 yet was still rushed in soo many ways.

The point is that neither company is dominant over the other. There is nothing suggesting that one would outstrip the other (as the OP suggested). They've both probably being seeking exclusive partnerships for well over a year now and planning the launch with their internal studios/publishing partners/third party publishers.

The quality and quantity of content available for launch will depend on which company has the easier to develop system and has better prepared its internal/external partners for the launch.

 

[Maximilian E.]

Basically, I think that the OP is wrong..

MS is in another level regarding resources compairing with Nintendo and Sony.
MS has much more leverage with taking losses and such.

MS can secure games, buy devs, take losses per sold hardware etc etc..

Besides, Sonys Playstation brand has losts is "power" and Xbox, at least in america, is as strong/stronger. if MS manages to convince in europe, then with both US and EU-markets, Japan is "not needed"..

We´ll see what Phil Harrison can do to improve europe..

but yeah, as I see it, MS cannot really lose. They have higher gears to shift to, if needed...

 

[rCIZZLE]

Wii U out first is bad news for others the power house never win the gen, its the best cheap and easy to make games for and has the multi platform games

Nintendo will probably "win" the console war but they're pretty much winning a 1 man race. They get one market while MS and Sony fight over the other.

 

[bigtroyjon]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Studios_(game_studio)#Software_development_studios

A lot has been happening over the past few years.

I don't know if anyone reading this updates wiki but you could add bigpark to the timeline in 2009

Press Release for a cite

Edit- And I was looking into that sports entertainment group and it appears to just be for all the sports apps on the dashboard like UFC and ESPN. I don't think they are actually making any games.

Do you want to help reinvent the way fans watch, follow and engage with their favorite sports on television and portable devices? Are you passionate about developing showcase consumer entertainment experiences with industry leading partners like ESPN and UFC? We need an innovative and fearless designer to help us build the next generation of sports entertainment.

The Sports Entertainment Group (SEG) within Xbox is looking for a User Experience Designer to help realize our vision to be the #1 choice for sports entertainment.

Come join the team that brought sports giant ESPN and UFC to the XBOX and help us create the future of interactive TV. Be an integral part of the design and implementation of the next generation of sports on XBOX Live

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

For sure. Sony is fully expecting to release their console close to Microsoft unlike the PS3...which released a year later than the 360 yet was still rushed in soo many ways.

The point is that neither company is dominant over the other. There is nothing suggesting that one would outstrip the other (as the OP suggested). They've both probably being seeking exclusive partnerships for well over a year now and planning the launch with their internal studios/publishing partners/third party publishers.

The quality and quantity of content available for launch will depend on which company has the easier to develop system and has better prepared its internal/external partners for the launch.

Well said, I have practically nothing to add to that. I've been saying that from the software standpoint it doesn't really matter which platform comes out sooner, but which platform holder provides the developers with devkits and a stable development environment earlier.

 

[Grayman]

MS is in a nice position to recover money off the 360. Losers launch.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

MS is in a nice position to recover money off the 360. Losers launch.

yeah nintendo sure were losers this gen

 

[jump_button]

Nintendo will probably "win" the console war but they're pretty much winning a 1 man race. They get one market while MS and Sony fight over the other.

no you talking about this gen wii was made to do that Wii U not in fact it may be PS2 of this gen and other two end up being GC and Xbox both out power ps2 but look who won

 

[mrklaw]

They will have a new Kinect in the box and maybe even a tablet controller. They'll be fine.

if its an expensive console then bundling kinect is stupid. Early buyers will not be the same people that have been buying kinects recently

 

[POWERSPHERE]

every console will be successful if it's well implemented with good games, timing doesn't matter in the long run.

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

if its an expensive console then bundling kinect is stupid. Early buyers will not be the same people that have been buying kinects recently

While I don't think they'll necessarily be bundling a new Kinect with every console (the one we already have might do, maybe with some minor hardware modifications), that's precisely the point, selling Kinect to people who wouldn't normally get one. The plan goes into action this year, with Kinect core games on Xbox 360, it will continue on the 360 in 2013 and all the way into the next generation.

 

[tsab]

Based on what little information is out there and what little I've pried from a few insider type contacts .. heres what I predict for the next Xbox(s) from Microsoft.

E3 2012 - Quiet, push more core and Kinect software
E3 2013 - Announce, Xbox "Loop" a form factor platform in the likes of Apple TV or Roku. It will be small, have no optical media and be ARM based. It will play all XBLA games, have access to all media services (Hulu, HBO Go, Netflix etc..), upgraded UI/features, internal storage and have access to Microsofts new Xbox "Cloud" service (think OnLive) to access "full" retail games but over the cloud. Will have some Kinect support

Price : $150

*queue crowd excited, but kind of let down because "Loop" is a limited platform"

Don Mattrick says, "But wait, theres one more thing!". Pulls a box off of something and unveils a full, true successor to the Xbox 360. The "Durango". This does everything the "Loop" does, but more. Traditional optical media, and even more features, most Kinect based with Kinect 2.0. They'll run a reel of target renders of future "Durango" games and the crowd will go crazy.

Price : $399 and $499

"Announcing the Xbox Durango AND Xbox Loop, both coming this holiday season, 2013 to retailers near you!"

Microsoft has some big secrets going on up in WA lately, and the center around the Xbox platform. Big big names have moved there, people who work in design and cloud services so expect some big technical breakthroughs next gen. They are not stupid enough (I think lol) to fragment these 2 devices over several years. They will present both at E3 and release at the same time, and flog the fact they are offering the Xbox platform and its services to customers in a way that the competition cannot. They are going to push the word "options" and allow the consumer to buy the Xbox they want/need.

Xbox "Loop" and "Durango" both launching holiday 2013 .. calling it. Worst case scenario is Loop 2013, Durango 2014 (or vise versa). Ultimately I predict a multi platform Xbox platform next gen.. they need to hit that Roku/Apple TV price point if they really want to take over the living room to the average customer.

ARM cpu cannot play powerpc code.not without emulation, but why would do that again? Slap a powerpc for 100% compatibility

 

[Winnie the Pimp]

eh they'll be fine...

you underestimate the buying power of the COD etc dudebro fanbase...

+ Kinect 2.0 or whatever will reel in a lot of casuals i believe

 

[Omzz]

My guess is they're going to wait it out by building up the Kinect since apparently that is the future for them.

 

[jono51]

The whole reason MS thinks it can go toe to toe with sony now is they've been ahead of them for the past 7 years. It isn't like they're coming off the back of Xbox1 against ps2. Not only that, but they've already shown they can market well and generate a shitton of momentum quickly (see kinect & huge 360 sales last year). I'm more interested in seeing what sony has up their sleeve to try and combat them.

 

[manzo]

The whole reason MS thinks it can go toe to toe with sony now is they've been ahead of them for the past 7 years. It isn't like they're coming off the back of Xbox1 against ps2. Not only that, but they've already shown they can market well and generate a shitton of momentum quickly (see kinect & huge 360 sales last year). I'm more interested in seeing what sony has up their sleeve to try and combat them.

I'm more interested to see how Microsoft will take on Europe next gen. They are losing here to PS3.

If next gen Sony gets their shit together, launches at a fair price and at the same time as MS in Europe, I'd say MS is in seriously deep shit.

 

[Petrichor]

I've held this opinion for a while now, and due to the rumor mill beginning to point towards the next Playstation console launching next year, I think it's a good time throw this out there for debate.

Microsoft benefited greatly from launching a year ahead of the PS3 this gen, and nearly everyone agrees on that. By not launching in 2012 they've opened the door for Sony to sneak in and get their next console out day and date with Microsoft in 2013. That strikes me as a dangerous strategy for Microsoft.


Giving the consumer a head to head choice, to compare the entire spectrum on offer, may not go so well for Microsoft. The Xbox Live cost alone is a hurdle to overcome, and starting a new generation may well give many current 360 users the thought of jumping off the "pay for online" wagon, in favor of a cheaper alternative. You can be sure the PS4 is not going to suffer the same OS weaknesses and lack of features. The Vita is already proof enough that Sony knows what's expected in a next gen OS.

Then you've got the whole hardware fiasco of the 360 early on in this gen. Many people will have a rightful concern to consider that at the start of a new gen, and people haven't forgotten just how bad things got. No one likes sending in their console for a refurb in the mail. Once again, giving people a head to head choice, just may well end up with them choosing the Sony model.


Then you've got the exclusive roster, which Sony clearly has an advantage with. More exclusives at launch, and in the pipeline becomes just one more bullet point in the minds of consumers considering both consoles at the same time. If Sony has a big launch advantage, and it's quite possible they would have one, that could sway more people to their side.


While I fully acknowledge Microsoft has built a loyal and diehard userbase this gen, I really don't see it as wise for them to open this door to a head to head launch. I genuinely believe it would result in them losing some market share next gen.

Just my 2 cents.


Edit: I forgot to mention something important. Launching with Halo 4 would have been another huge reason to launch the console in 2012. Massive IP day one, showing off the new hardware. New Halo engine in place day one, ready for sequels to be pumped out on that console. It would have secured a fantastic launch for the new Xbox.

I'm not sure sony necessarily have as much of an advantage with exclusives as you may think. Sure the volume of exclusive games on the PS3 exceeds that of the 360, but how many PS3 exclusives do consumers actually want to play? The only major AAA franchises Sony has at the moment are God of War, Uncharted, and Gran Turismo, and none of these save maybe GT (contentious) sell as well as Gears or Halo.

 

[eso76]

while i'm tired of this gen personally i can't blame microsoft for giving 360 another year.
not only sales are strong but in perspective, 360 increasing popularity is paving the road for its successor.
While the market is rather unpredictable, i think this will help xboxnext be huge in NA and very big in Europe when it launches.

 

[Hoo-doo]

I can't see anyone who is currently invested in PSN or Xbox Live jumping ship to the Wii-U, even if it launches a year early.
I personally have very little faith in Nintendo in terms of creating a stable and fully-featured online infrastructure, seeing how ass-backwards they have approached anything concerning network connectivity in the current gen.

They have little to no experience with the field, and PSN and Xbox Live are only getting better. It took XBL years to get where they are today.

 

[MMaRsu]

I know. I just don't believe them. I just can't believe they'd let Nintendo get a huge head start.

Really? Xbox 360 and Ps3 users probably aren't waiting for the Wii U.

 

[Codeblue]

Really? Xbox 360 and Ps3 users probably aren't waiting for the Wii U.

Customers are extremely fickle, they're probably not waiting for anything right now.

 

[alphaNoid]

ARM cpu cannot play powerpc code.not without emulation, but why would do that again? Slap a powerpc for 100% compatibility

Very valid point, and I thought of that. Its just for some wacky reason I feel they would go ARM and emulate in some form. It may not be as difficult or costly as some may imagine, we're talking about basically the worlds biggest software giant with one of the best R&D department on the planet.

Customers are extremely fickle, they're probably not waiting for anything right now.

Good point, consumers are probably more sleep at the wheel more than anything. If Sony or MS announced their successors tomorrow you can bet large sum of money everyone saying "I"m in no rush" will go ape shit. Until they announce it, it'll remain quite on the front.

 

[Digital-Hero]

I think both Sony and MS are on a path to get steamrolled by Nintendo, who has shown they're willing to pull out all the stops when things aren't going their way.

It's in the books that the best versions of all the third party games this fall are going to be on Wii U. I'm preordering one based on this alone. Add first party games to the mix? What possible incentive is MS or Sony going to give me to go back to their ecosystems?

It's more like MS and Sony are going to steamroll Nintendo. Nintendo has nothing truly innovative to offer that the next-gen consoles cannot copy themselves when they arrive. Releasing early against the 360 and PS3 is just foolish, considering the Wii-U is just comparable to those.

I'll be waiting for the true next gen to arrive.

EDIT:
If history is any determining factor, Nintendo always leaps ahead and then falls back. Their leap was the original Wii. (I'm not talking from a technological standpoint, but sales.)

 

[WrikaWrek]

I disagree completely and find it absolutely fascinating that the OP doesn't recognize the strides the Xbox brand has made.

It's utterly wrong to think somehow Sony still has this imaginary edge.

 

[Not a Jellyfish]

I don't think it was a mistake at all, the mistake would be to put a new console out this year when the 360 has been showing great numbers in NPD each month. They would be hurting their own sales if they released anything this year.

 

[GameplayWhore]

Good point, consumers are probably more sleep at the wheel more than anything. If Sony or MS announced their successors tomorrow you can bet large sum of money everyone saying "I"m in no rush" will go ape shit. Until they announce it, it'll remain quite on the front.

In the case of most of the consumers, they often just like to buy games that are sequels to games that they really like. If the Wii U (for instance) gets those sequels, then some of them will move over and be less likely to get the 360's successor. If it doesn't, that will not happen.

Anecdotally, I don't know a single person in real life who does not think in this manner. It seems far more important to most of them than, for instance, keeping the same gaming account or staying with the same system vendor.

 

[Dipswitch]

Very valid point, and I thought of that. Its just for some wacky reason I feel they would go ARM and emulate in some form. It may not be as difficult or costly as some may imagine, we're talking about basically the worlds biggest software giant with one of the best R&D department on the planet.

I think it's more likely that a new box would be compatible with the all the forthcoming Windows 8 Metro apps and games. I can't see them wanting to ship a traditional controller with the 'Lite' 360, other than Kinect of course. And I don't think an ARM powered box would have the ooomph to run XBLA titles, especially after you factor in emulation.

I can see them adding Kinect functionality to games like 'Angry Birds', 'Cut the Rope', etc, and that's about it. And maybe making simpler versions of their first party Kinect games that would run on ARM.