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[SwiftDeath]

??? not a disaster?? the WiiU is on track to lose over 90% of the sales of it's predecessor.

The only consoles that have sold worse than this in the post NES era are joke tier consoles like the 3D0, CDi, and Jaguar- and the WiiU is pulling these numbers with a larger overall market, far stronger marketing budget, and first party development studios.
It's beyond the worst projections ANYONE had for this system before launch.

Not to mention that making games for the system in this day and age is far more expensive thus higher sales are needed to be successful with putting a game on the Wii U

So yeah it seems much worse then even those examples you gave

 

[Goldenmoney]

Exactly. Consumer has spoken and doesn't dig it. Kill it and burn a select few fans, but come back with something suspenseful. I mean Dreamcast did actually good once it was launched, even though the Saturn was killed quickly. Dreamcast failure was more about Sega unable to pour more cash into it and a ridiculously hyped Ps2. Nintendo shouldn't have these problems, not that extreme at least. Nintendo still has better third party support too, even though its bad compared to Sony and MS.

See, I'm not convinced that this will do any good at all. If they pull the plug on the Wii U, then third parties are going to be even less trusting of Nintendo home consoles, knowing that they might drop it after one year. I think third parties feel pretty good about the prospects of developing on PS4, Xbox One, and PC for the rest of this generation. They don't give a crap what Nintendo does.

 

[N0REGARD4L1FE]

Sorry but in my eyes, the Vita is dead. The WiiU may or may not be around much longer, but the Vita just isn't really catching anyone's eye right now. If SONY can really show off remote play then maybe it can stick around, but man that thing needs some killer software FAST.

 

[Crash Station]

I agree to an extent. The industry has proved unpredictable time and again this past generation, crushing trends and throwing analysts for a loop. Sure, the historical data we have to go on makes both look like failures, but that is not the end all be all indicator of failure.

Of course, even if they are failures, I imagine just like the GC and Dreamcast, they'll be talked about fondly. They both have all that they need for that based on their announced games. Hell, the Wii U passed the Virtual Boy (which people like to compare the console to) situation and its 3 competent games on day 1. The Wii U is not getting dropped until the announced games are released, so even if it dies in a year or 2, it's going to have a commendable library when all is said and done.

 

[Jaeger]

Yeah I'm sure Mario Kart and Smash Bros. will be the games that will start causing the console to fly off the shelves. I'm just naive.

Indeed. I plan on buying one when Smash comes out, myself... Wait, that was sarcasm? Naming two of some of the most anticipating 2014 releases?

Interesting.

 

[cyberheater]

Nah, the hungry Nintendo is the one you see eating bananas on trade shows. The Nintendo I speak of is the one strung out on bad Mario mushrooms.



See, I knew you couldn't commit to that never, I knew it.

Do you remember

I so wanted that to be true.

 

[Manmademan]

I still think they need to market the tablet controller as an accessory, throw a pro controller in the box instead and relaunch it at $199 with a game.

hypothetically, say nintendo does this.

They're STILL more expensive than a 360, and on par with a PS3- both of which have a greater library, better third party support, far more robust online networks, stronger visuals (!!), and both will be on the market for at least two more years, thanks to cross gen support.

The WiiU sold somewhere around 1 million worldwide this year with it's only competition the PS3 and 360 for most of it- it can't compete with those two, let alone the ps4 and xbone.

Even a price drop can't help it here. and without the tablet packed in there's no argument at all for buying it over the ps360.

 

[outunderthestars]

Obviously we are not Nintendo shareholders, we are not privy to NIntendo financial statements, but I'd say that losing potentially 80% of your userbase from one product to the next is a failure. If the next iPhone sold 20% of the last one, Apple would lose their shit. Same with any consumer product out there.

Agreed. I know it is unpleasant to see something you enjoy fail, but the Wii U is simply not going to be a success. Developers have already abandoned the console, retailers are shrinking the shelf space given to the system, and consumers simply don't seem to care.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Indeed. I plan on buying one when Smash comes out, myself... Wait, that was sarcasm? Naming two of some of the most anticipating 2014 releases?

Interesting.

Sarcasm? Never. Surely people who couldn't be bothered to turn out to buy the system when Mario 3D World was released and garnering GotY type hype will finally turn out for Mario Kart. Makes tons of sense.

 

[Misterhbk]

Just impulse bought a Wii U, and a bunch of Wii games.

That said, the console is dead. I own this thing for Smash, Kart, and whatever other RPGs come exclusively.

 

[pants]

Do you remember



I so wanted that to be true.

Wasnt the asshole(s) that made this up from here? :lol Remind me so I can direct an insult laden PM someone's way :c

 

[SwiftDeath]

Sorry but in my eyes, the Vita is dead. The WiiU may or may not be around much longer, but the Vita just isn't really catching anyone's eye right now. If SONY can really show off remote play then maybe it can stick around, but man that thing needs some killer software FAST.

The thing with the Vita is I get the sense that Sony and retailers make some decent margin on the terribly priced memory cards and that gives them some greater profitability over what sales numbers might suggest, maybe not though.

Also isn't porting/developing a game on the Vita much much cheaper as its a handheld and wouldn't require as highly detailed assets? Thus less software sales to be profitable?

Vita is still a bomba for sure but I get the feeling it is a lot cheaper and easier to keep the system operating then the Wii U is for Nintendo

 

[randomengine]

I do not think it's ridiculous at all. First, a year comprises something like 15-20% of a typical system's lifespan. Second, systems don't tend to suddenly break trends later in their life.

And last and most importantly is the size of a system's failure. If a system is modestly underperforming in its first year, then sure, it can recover. It can go from a modestly underperforming system to a modestly over performing one, for example. But the two systems this thread is about -- the Vita and Wii U -- do not fit that description. They are complete and total bombs, with sales patterns more similar to swiftly discontinued systems like the Dreamcast or Wonderswan than to "not doing that great" systems like the Gamecube. I think the best systems like that can hope for is to move the needle from "discontinue this as fast as possible" to "poorly received system."

I don't understand that logic. Because it would turn a system that could potentially sell GameCube levels throughout its life (~25 million), and instead settle for 4 million, and accelerate their hardware division to come up with a successor a couple years before they would normally be ready in their standard cycle. That is just a recipe for more failure.

No, the best Nintendo can do is pull a PS3 and keep working on the product until it gets so good that eventually gamers accept it.

 

[SkylineRKR]

See, I'm not convinced that this will do any good at all. If they pull the plug on the Wii U, then third parties are going to be even less trusting of Nintendo home consoles, knowing that they might drop it after one year. I think third parties feel pretty good about the prospects of developing on PS4, Xbox One, and PC for the rest of this generation. They don't give a crap what Nintendo does.

Maybe they lost third parties forever, maybe they will come if the new Nintendo system is actually something new and in good demand. I don't know. But holding on to the Wii U isn't doing them any favors either, thats for sure.

If I were Nintendo, I would put all my resources and manpower in a system that actually sells and generates profit. 3DS in this case. For Sony, I would focus on Ps4 and keep the Ps3 around.

 

[Some Nobody]

Nintendo half a year making no games, and the other half making games no one gave a shit about. Pikmin is a thing people have touted to me as a reason to buy a $300 console. FOH. I'm not saying it doesn't have its fanbase, but...nah.

They've been out a year and have no noteworthy fighter, racing game, RPG, no TPS, they're missing major sports games, and have all of one poorly promoted and incredibly niche action game.

The list of games they have coming make me want them to win, but they aren't putting in the work to prove that they want to win. Not in terms of aggressive marketing, not in terms of third-party support, and barely in terms of first-party support. They have MK, Smash, hopefully Zelda...and THEN what in 2015?

Now if they retire the system in 2017 with a host of great games (kicked off by 2014) and the system still hasn't sold? Well, that'd be on us for not supporting good games--but that hasn't happened yet.

 

[Stet]

Part of the reaction being so grim so quickly is because of the 90's, which saw stuff like the TurboGrafx, Jaguar and so on die fairly quick deaths, Neo Geo remaining incredibly obscure, and most crucially Sega going from near-dominance one generation to losing all their retail space within a couple years and essentially having no active console in the US for half the generation.

Basically it has happened before. What's different now is the only players remaining have deep pockets. They can afford to fail in ways Sega never could.

TurboGrafx didn't die a quick death. It was around for 8 years in Japan and 6 in the US. There was no Mario and Mario was what made the NES/SNES huge.

 

[Jaeger]

Sarcasm? Never. Surely people who couldn't be bothered to turn out to buy the system when Mario 3D World was released and garnering GotY type hype will finally turn out for Mario Kart. Makes tons of sense.

Or I could wait until the game I wan't to play is released? I bought a Wii for Brawl. Why stop the trend? Either way, they get a system sale from me.

 

[Lambda Pie]

Sarcasm? Never. Surely people who couldn't be bothered to turn out to buy the system when Mario 3D World was released and garnering GotY type hype will finally turn out for Mario Kart. Makes tons of sense.

all these casuals who left for mobile/stoppped gaming will come back for Mario Kart and fuckin Smash Bros.

dont be naive.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

No, the best Nintendo can do is pull a PS3 and keep working on the product until it gets so good that eventually gamers accept it.

and how did that work for the Gamecube

 

[outunderthestars]

The thing with the Vita is I get the sense that Sony and retailers make some decent margin on the terribly priced memory cards and that gives them some greater profitability over what sales numbers might suggest, maybe not though.

Also isn't porting/developing a game on the Vita much much cheaper as its a handheld and wouldn't require as highly detailed assets? Thus less software sales to be profitable?

Vita is still a bomba for sure but I get the feeling it is a lot cheaper and easier to keep the system operating then the Wii U is for Nintendo

Both systems will ride out this generation with minimal support. Neither will be retired overly early.

 

[Some Nobody]

Side note: People keep mentioning the Dreamcast, but in the two or so years that system was out it got DOZENS of playable titles for all sorts of genres. The Wii U isn't CLOSE to that yet.

 

[randomengine]

and how did that work for the Gamecube

Letting the GameCube run its course, gave us the Wii. Nintendo took their time and did it right.

 

[pants]

No, the best Nintendo can do is pull a PS3 and keep working on the product until it gets so good that eventually gamers accept it.

You're ignoring that the PS3's problems (price) is way different than the WiiU's problems (everything).

Letting the GameCube run its course, gave us the Wii. Nintendo took their time and did it right.

But then in the same line of logic, letting the Wii run it's course gave us the WiiU.

 

[IchigoSharingan]

It is not that the Wii U has failed.

It is that Nintendo has failed the Wii U.

Nintendo did not and to a strong extent still does not have modern systems in place to support the Wii U or its owners. Where is the unified account system for owners? For this they would have to go to Sony.

Where is the online gaming experience? For this gamers would have to go to PSN/XBL/PC.

Where are the multiplats?

Why is 3rd party support still an issue?

Why is the system so bottlenecked? Why are its specs ready for the 2000s but not the 2010s?

Why is the tablet's strength still not pushed by Nintendo themselves?

Where is the marketing differentiation? 2 E3's in a row and Nintendo still couldn't show people the simple different between the Wii and the Wii U. Where is the rererebranding?

Nintendo had many of these issues since before the Wii, but its success made them forget for a while. The Wii U brought it all right back to square 1.

Sony and MS have largely changed the way they treat console support and development. Nintendo has not. Since Sony has adapted the best, its console will see the greatest success. Since Nintendo has not, it will continue to see abysmal numbers. As Wii U owners, we can at least enjoy the 1st party games. But nowadays that seems more of a consolation prize than a consolation.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

I
No, the best Nintendo can do is pull a PS3 and keep working on the product until it gets so good that eventually gamers accept it.

The difference is that PS3 had parity with the market leader. Their hardware and strong sales in Japan/Europe over 360 meant that third parties would support the PS3 with the same games as 360 with a few exceptions. That gave them a boost that the Wii U isn't going to have. Hell the Wii U is already missing out on some big third party games (Bioshock, GTAV) what is going to happen over the next year or two when companies start to focus more and more on Xbox One and PS4?

 

[AngryMoth]

That's not happening. The Wii-U may be dead, but Nintendo will continue to stubbornly support it all the way until next gen, releasing a game every quarter or two. It will continue to lose 3rd party support over the course of 2014 and by next Christmas it will most likely be a Nintendo games only console.

But if the Wii U continues to sell at current levels then the install base will be too small for them to money on their software. They have got to be looking at 2015 for the next console now.

 

[outunderthestars]

You're ignoring that the PS3's problems (price) is way different than the WiiU's problems (everything).

This is a valid point.

 

[randomengine]

You're ignoring that the PS3's problems (price) is way different than the WiiU's problems (everything).

The problems were also development problems and extremely bad ports and an image that was beyond terrible. No one can doubt that PS3 around launch was considered the worst of the 3 systems and sold like it too. Its sales was 3rd and by a healthy margin, until around 2010, the rebranding, and a change of fortune.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Both systems will ride out this generation with minimal support. Neither will be retired overly early.

Hmm that's the thing though I could see one or both being retired early

Logic would dictate that if one had to go it'd be more likely the Vita between the two as cutting off support for a handheld is slightly less bad PR than a home console, especially Nintendo of all people with a home console

But I don't know maybe Wii U will end early or both. I suppose both lasting the gen is possible too though

 

[spatenfloot]

hypothetically, say nintendo does this.

They're STILL more expensive than a 360, and on par with a PS3- both of which have a greater library, better third party support, far more robust online networks, stronger visuals (!!), and both will be on the market for at least two more years, thanks to cross gen support.

The WiiU sold somewhere around 1 million worldwide this year with it's only competition the PS3 and 360 for most of it- it can't compete with those two, let alone the ps4 and xbone.

Even a price drop can't help it here. and without the tablet packed in there's no argument at all for buying it over the ps360.

I agree. The WiiU was already doing badly against the 360/ps3. There is no way it can compete against the next gen systems. It costs too much to make because of the tablet and doesn't sell enough software to make up for it. Luckily for Nintendo, the 3ds can support them now.

 

[Stet]

I'm only talking about the US. I recall that thing losing all its shelf space fairly quickly. I wasn't able to go buy one at K-Mart in the Chicago area.

To be honest, I think that was less a failure of NEC as it was a victory for Nintendo's marketing teams. Nintendo was going hard in those days for advertising, and between The Wizard, the Super Mario Bros. Super Show and Mario merchandise, there was no beating them.

TG-16 by technical terms was very competitive for its time, which was what kept it afloat for as long as it was. In this case, though, Nintendo's advertising is awful and the console just isn't competitive. It's tough to compare them.

 

[Manmademan]

I don't understand that logic. Because it would turn a system that could potentially sell GameCube levels throughout its life (~25 million),

25 million is out of reach for this console. If sales for this year doubled for the next 5 years and sustained it, it would still be only around 15 million.

No, the best Nintendo can do is pull a PS3 and keep working on the product until it gets so good that eventually gamers accept it.

I'm going to repost this-

What DID work with the PS3 was an across the board change in strategy, a drastic stripping down of everything unneccessary in the PS3 to cut costs, deploying ICE team to third parties to get them familiar with the system to end the parade of shit ports, DRASTICALLY overhauling PSN to a point where it was competitive with Xbox live while still being free, and buying up and heavily investing in studios and new franchises to build up a library.

Nintendo can't "pull a PS3." The PS3 was close enough to the 360 technically, and developers were already heavily invested enough in the system's development that there was no danger of third parties simply pulling support. that's not the case with the wiiU. Third parties are already gone.

There is no room to price drop without losing the tablet completely. nintendo is already taking losses.

Nintendo not only has no ICE team, they're struggling themselves with learning HD games development and their first party titles show this.

Nintendo has no online infrastructure even close to where PSN was, and no hard drive within the system means the WiiU is poorly equipped for digital distribution in the first place.

Every studio worth anything has already been snatched up by someone else. There's simply no talented studios or exclusive IP for nintendo to buy.

The PS3 is not a good comparison to the WiiUs situation, even if the sales were anywhere in the same ballpark.

 

[SkylineRKR]

You're ignoring that the PS3's problems (price) is way different than the WiiU's problems (everything).

I can't stress this enough.

Aside from being hell for developers the Ps3 had everything in place, EXCEPT that its price was way too high. Everyone knew the console would eventually find its place, the question was when. Besides all this, the Ps3 never did this bad. Not even at 599 bucks.

Yes it didn't have the greatest of reputations, but the inital 40gb price drop fixed quite a bit of problems already. It started to outsell the 360 everywhere except for the US.

 

[dcx4610]

Are you implying that investors will just stand by and watch a publicly traded company burn through money for years on end?

Yes, and that's the problem. I don't know if it's just Japanese business culture or what but for some reason Nintendo is given chance after chance. No one is calling for Iwata's removal but some of the fans. Those internally think the Wii U's success depends on a single game just like Wii Sports or a Super Mario Bros.

What they don't realize is the marketing, word of mouth and motion controls also contributed to Wii sales, it just wasn't people wanting to play Wii Sports.

Iwata's philosophy is to ignore what others are doing and innovate. He's just not into computer horsepower or bleeding edge technology. He likes finding quirky and cheap things to make games "more fun" when most of us just want a powerful piece of hardware, a traditional controller and good games.

I always look back at the SNES as Nintendo at its best. The system broke new ground with its sound and graphics chips and the controller design was so perfect that it's still roughly the same design we use today. Nintendo was putting out the best software AND hardware and had no equal.

Nintendo always feels 5 years behind the times now and I put the blame on Iwata and their investors. They really need to evolve or they are going to be left behind. They can't survive another Wii U-like failure.

 

[SykoTech]

When people call the Wii U a failure, they don't necessarily mean that it is a financial disaster for Nintendo. It could very well be one, especially since it's being sold for a loss and isn't selling much hardware or software. But Nintendo might be able to pull out a small profit from it at the end of the gen.

People usually call it a failure in terms of expectations. The Wii U is the successor to the wildly popular Wii system, which was the "winner" of last gen. The fact that it's successor doing so poorly and is guaranteed to come in 3rd place (despite having a year-long head start) is what makes everyone call the Wii U a failure. And you can bet this is how Nintendo themselves feel. No one sets out to make a system that can barely sell a fraction of what the previous one did.

 

[outunderthestars]

I agree. The WiiU was already doing badly against the 360/ps3. There is no way it can compete against the next gen systems. It costs too much to make because of the tablet and doesn't sell enough software to make up for it. Luckily for Nintendo, the 3ds can support them now.

That tablet controller will certainly be the downfall of the system. Expensive, awkward, and almost totally useless.

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

I'm just gonna come out and say it, because variations of this opinion have been annoying me for as long as I've been on NeoGaf.

The Dreamcast's library sucked. The retroactive veneration of it is almost a Gaf meme.

The graphics were pretty amazing for the time though. Well on par with PC gaming at that moment. A short moment, granted, but it was there.

but other than that I also agree: Sonic adventure, Shenmue, Space station 5, and that's about it I think (honorable mention for Seaman). Still, that's not too bad for just a year's run. Problem is that we have no idea what else might have been done with the console, so it's impossible to compare.

I also think that every system has about twenty 'classics' and everything else is moot. Or at least, that number seems to pop up a lot in my experience with most systems.

 

[randomengine]

25 million is out of reach for this console. If sales for this year doubled for the next 5 years and sustained it, it would still be only around 15 million.

4 million in year 1
8 million in year 2 = 12 million.
16 million in year 3 = 28 million.
32 million in year 4 = 60 million.
64 million in year 5 = 124 million.

Please, please, learn to do math before making such claims.

There is no reason to suggest sales will remain constant for 4 more years, especially if there are price cuts and software launches that will help sales free up.

 

[Stet]

4 million in year 1
8 million in year 2 = 12 million.
16 million in year 3 = 28 million.
32 million in year 4 = 60 million.
64 million in year 5 = 124 million.

Please, please, learn to do math before making such claims.

There is no reason to suggest sales will remain constant for 4 more years, especially if there are price cuts and software launches that will help sales free up.

Oh my god, he wasn't suggesting it doubled every year lol

 

[randomengine]

That tablet controller will certainly be the downfall of the system. Expensive, awkward, and almost totally useless.

I wonder how many people who actually own the system feel this way. I love the controller. Off-TV play is great.

 

[rjinaz]

4 million in year 1
8 million in year 2 = 12 million.
16 million in year 3 = 28 million.
32 million in year 4 = 60 million.
64 million in year 5 = 124 million.

Please, please, learn to do math before making such claims.

There is no reason to suggest sales will remain constant for 4 more years, especially if there are price cuts and software launches that will help sales free up.

I assume he was talking about 2013, he did say this year.

 

[randomengine]

Oh my god, he wasn't suggesting it doubled every year lol

And yet, that is exactly what he said, heh.

 

[Manmademan]

4 million in year 1
8 million in year 2 = 12 million.
16 million in year 3 = 28 million.
32 million in year 4 = 60 million.
64 million in year 5 = 124 million.

Please, please, learn to do math before making such claims.

There is no reason to suggest sales will remain constant for 4 more years, especially if there are price cuts and software launches that will help sales free up.

You might want to re-evaluate those numbers.

Most of that 4 million (somewhere between 2.5 and 3 million) were sold at LAUNCH in 2012. The sales were hilariously frontloaded.

The Wii only managed to sell about 1 million consoles this year (2013). not 4. There is no scenario at ALL where the wiiU quadruples it's sales to 4 million a year with more competition (Xbone, PS4).

 

[SwiftDeath]

4 million in year 1
8 million in year 2 = 12 million.
16 million in year 3 = 28 million.
32 million in year 4 = 60 million.
64 million in year 5 = 124 million.

Please, please, learn to do math before making such claims.

There is no reason to suggest sales will remain constant for 4 more years, especially if there are price cuts and software launches that will help sales free up.

Sigh you're math is all over the place. Here are the correct numbers

Hold on. The Wii U's monthly sales increased by 340% from last month. If that rate keeps up, how many Wii U's will they have sold by this time next year?

November	220000
December	968000
January	        4259200
February	18740480
March	        82458112
April	        362815692.8
May	        1596389048
June	        7024111813
July	        30906091975
August	        1.35987E+11
September	5.98342E+11
October	        2.6327E+12
November	1.15839E+13
Total	        14,990,929,309,389

 

[vagabondarts]

At this point Nintendo would do better to release a Nintendo console like vita tv. Subscription gaming access to their entire previous system libraries (everything up to the Wii). And bundle it with a pro controller. Sell gamepad separately for off tv play.

Boom.

 

[FStop7]

A console bombing its second holiday is pretty much the death of it. Sorry, OP.

Who cares if it's dead in the water. I bought one a month ago and have been enjoying the hell out of it. I will have gotten my money out of it once I've played through the 1st party games and some Wii games that I missed.

I think this is a good mindset, provided you're OK with spending money on a platform without much of a future. I bought both a Wii U and a Vita at launch and I've gotten enjoyment from them both, though I don't think they were worth full price. I should have waited for price drops.

 

[Stet]

And yet, that is exactly what he said, heh.

He said if it doubled and sustained that for the next five years...

 

[JordanN]

I said it in another thread, PS3's problems can't be compared to Wii U.

Sony wasn't trying to sell a busted up PS1 and praying it caught on. PS3 was a viable console next to 360. What held it back was the price.

Wii U can't compete with PS4. It's just not happening. Add that the console was on the market for a year and still couldn't catch on, why should I expect a miracle from Nintendo when they couldn't even fix Gamecube for all its lifespan?

Everyone thought the 3DS was doomed and it had only been around for under a year.

This comparison is also ridiculous. Wii U is not the 3DS, so why compare it?
3DS got Monster Hunter and Pokemon to keep it alive, what does Wii U got? Nintendo has to buy GTA to get something similar but Microsoft and Sony would never let it happen.

 

[BrokenEchelon]

I think when consoles are charting at or below dreamcast level we can officially call them dead, especially when one is still trying to save it and releasing "heavy hitters" and they're doing jack shit to help sales. It's over.

One and done. OP sounds salty. I want the Wii U to do well but it's clear at this point that the market doesn't care.

 

[andymcc]

I'm just gonna come out and say it, because variations of this opinion have been annoying me for as long as I've been on NeoGaf.

The Dreamcast's library sucked. The retroactive veneration of it is almost a Gaf meme.

Can't account for your bad taste, but the Dreamcast had a pretty great library considering the limited life span of the console.