Support NeoGAF

[pants]

The problems were also development problems and extremely bad ports and an image that was beyond terrible. No one can doubt that PS3 around launch was considered the worst of the 3 systems and sold like it too. Its sales was 3rd and by a healthy margin, until around 2010, the rebranding, and a change of fortune.

What the hell are you drinking? Even when the PS3 was sold at the price of a leprechaun's golden beard it still stayed with the 360 unit for unit in world wide sales. The PS3 was never, ever in the dire cliffhanger.gif situation the WiiU is.

 

[Goldenmoney]

Maybe they lost third parties forever, maybe they will come if the new Nintendo system is actually something new and in good demand. I don't know. But holding on to the Wii U isn't doing them any favors either, thats for sure.

If I were Nintendo, I would put all my resources and manpower in a system that actually sells and generates profit. 3DS in this case. For Sony, I would focus on Ps4 and keep the Ps3 around.

Part of me wants to believe they can win third parties back, but I'm not seeing how. Even with a more powerful and hopefully better selling system, most people don't think of Nintendo as their destination for the hardcore stuff like online deathmatch, racing sims, first person shooters, western rpgs, rated m titles, etc. I think it's a long uphill battle for Nintendo if they want to attract the hardcore gamer. For now, I think it's best to stick with the Wii U, at least develop and release what they've announced already.

 

[SkylineRKR]

You might want to re-evaluate those numbers.

Most of that 4 million (somewhere between 2.5 and 3 million) were sold at LAUNCH in 2012. The sales were hilariously frontloaded.

The Wii only managed to sell about 1 million consoles this year (2013). not 4. There is no scenario at ALL where the wiiU quadruples it's sales to 4 million a year with more competition (Xbone, PS4).

In Europe it eventually sank to 10k for the whole April - June quarter. Thats hilariously bad.

 

[Dark Octave]

Agreed. Vita and Wii U don't have excellent prospects but we've seen consoles turn it around before and we'll see it again.

Additionally, the "Console Wars" are made up by fans, all that matters in the end is whether the console can make money and I think both will eventually do that.

The armchair businessmen on forums get pretty tiring with their constant doomsday rhetoric.

I couldn't care less that you made a system for $3 and sold it for $400 and made a killer profit from the two people who bought it.

What matters to me is mindshare and marketshare. How many is using the thing and how many are developing for it.

 

[Of All Trades]

4 million in year 1
8 million in year 2 = 12 million.
16 million in year 3 = 28 million.
32 million in year 4 = 60 million.
64 million in year 5 = 124 million.

Please, please, learn to do math before making such claims.

There is no reason to suggest sales will remain constant for 4 more years, especially if there are price cuts and software launches that will help sales free up.

You were doing pretty good up until this point but you tipped your hand too far.

 

[Manmademan]

And yet, that is exactly what he said, heh.

no, it's not. i said if sales for this year (1 million) doubled (to 2 million) for the next five years and managed to sustain that, it would hit around 15 million. And you're saying MY math is bad?

If I wanted to suggest that it doubled EVERY year, I would have said if sales for this year doubled year OVER year for the next five years.

 

[randomengine]

You might want to re-evaluate those numbers.

Most of that 4 million (somewhere between 2.5 and 3 million) were sold at LAUNCH in 2012. The sales were hilariously frontloaded.

The Wii only managed to sell about 1 million consoles this year (2013). not 4. There is no scenario at ALL where the wiiU quadruples it's sales to 4 million a year with more competition (Xbone, PS4).

Some systems start of strong and taper out, some start slow and steamroll. I don't think anyone can predict how Wii U will eventually turn out.

 

[Baki]

So you dont think that an improved value proposition, be it games, cheaper pricepoint, or a combination of it all, could spur enough sales within its 5~ year lifespan to have ended up a financial success?

No. It's dead. Don't worry. It can hang out with the Vita.

Spoiler

There is nothing Nintendo can "reasonably" do to make the value proposition of the console appealing to the average consumer. Especially now that the competition has stepped into the plate and are destroying sales records for jokes. No 3rd party will support the platform and Nintendo can barely support it themselves.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Some systems start of strong and taper out, some start slow and steamroll. I don't think anyone can predict how Wii U will eventually turn out.

All right you just have to be trolling us now, right?

 

[Father_Brain]

I don't understand that logic. Because it would turn a system that could potentially sell GameCube levels throughout its life (~25 million), and instead settle for 4 million, and accelerate their hardware division to come up with a successor a couple years before they would normally be ready in their standard cycle. That is just a recipe for more failure.

No, the best Nintendo can do is pull a PS3 and keep working on the product until it gets so good that eventually gamers accept it.

Wii U will be lucky to sell 10M worldwide at this point. They've tried price drops, they've tried (and tried and tried) Mario, they've tried new bundles. Nothing is going to change its current trajectory substantially, even though MK8 and SSB will help a bit in the short term.

 

[Pociask]

25 million is out of reach for this console. If sales for this year doubled for the next 5 years and sustained it, it would still be only around 15 million.

I'm going to repost this-

Nintendo can't "pull a PS3." The PS3 was close enough to the 360 technically, and developers were already heavily invested enough in the system's development that there was no danger of third parties simply pulling support. that's not the case with the wiiU. Third parties are already gone.

There is no room to price drop without losing the tablet completely. nintendo is already taking losses.

Nintendo not only has no ICE team, they're struggling themselves with learning HD games development and their first party titles show this.

Nintendo has no online infrastructure even close to where PSN was, and no hard drive within the system means the WiiU is poorly equipped for digital distribution in the first place.

Every studio worth anything has already been snatched up by someone else. There's simply no talented studios or exclusive IP for nintendo to buy.

The PS3 is not a good comparison to the WiiUs situation, even if the sales were anywhere in the same ballpark.

These are all good points that need to be repeated. And, by the way, the Wii U can't pull a 3DS. Nintendo cannot financialyl take the hit to do another deep Wii U price cut, and just as / more importantly, Nintendo can't output a stream of games as quickly on the Wii U as they did on the 3DS (even if they shut down all 3DS production, which they can't).

You also bring out another important point, in that Nintendo has more than one "customer." So, in a sense, in 5 years, could they make a system that would appeal to the end users? Maybe! But in that intervening time, what's to keep Nintendo's other major "customers" on board? That is, retailers and distributors - why will they buy a dead product? Answer - they won't. In fact, they're already returning them in Europe. And what about third party publishers? Why are they going to greelight new Wii U releases? Answer, they won't, and they've in fact already cancelled Wii U projects underway.

It's a dead system. I don't say that with any happiness or glee, and I intend to pick one up myself someday. But it's dead.

 

[outunderthestars]

I wonder how many people who actually own the system feel this way. I love the controller. Off-TV play is great.

The fact that nobody owns it is the very point of this conversation. it clearly is not resonating with consumers. No amount of arguing will change the fact that nobody is buying the thing.

 

[Manmademan]

Some systems start of strong and taper out, some start slow and steamroll. I don't think anyone can predict how Wii U will eventually turn out.

pretty sure third parties are predicting how it will turn out, which is why they've abandoned the platform.

Is there any system at all, historically, that started out this badly with no competition and recovered? I'll save you the trouble- there isn't.

 

[CANLI]

I agree with you, OP. People will be biased and wish hate and spite against a company for unfounded reasons. Nintendo happens to be one of those companies that aren't out to please everyone, and people will whine and bitch about it due to some bizarre entitled mentality. Nintendo's doing great in my book. Tons of great releases in its first year makes the Wii U the best first-year console I've ever owned, personally.

Even though I don't own a wii u (waiting for mk8), I totally agree with you.
people must think that if Nintendo wasn't there, you would never be able to play at a lot of next gen games. so, don't Bitch them everyday.

 

[SkylineRKR]

pretty sure third parties are predicting how it will turn out, which is why they've abandoned the platform.

Is there any system at all, historically, that started out this badly with no competition and recovered? I'll save you the trouble- there isn't.

They'll say Ps3 again and again.

 

[Baki]

Wii U will be lucky to sell 10M worldwide at this point. They've tried price drops, they've tried (and tried and tried) Mario, they've tried new bundles. Nothing is going to change its current trajectory substantially, even though MK8 and SSB will help a bit in the short term.

It'll hit 10m. I think 15m is the ceiling.

 

[thelatestmodel]

Doesn't matter to me if people think the Vita is "dead".

Even if all Vita development was cancelled tomorrow, it would still be the best handheld of all time.

 

[andymcc]

Some systems start of strong and taper out, some start slow and steamroll. I don't think anyone can predict how Wii U will eventually turn out.

it's going to have worse LTD sales than the Gamecube. there is virtually nothing that is going to make this console as successful as the competing consoles. if a new Super Mario Bros. game during the holidays didn't save the console: I don't think much else will. Nintendo should have capitalized on the success of the Wii a year or two before the Wii U came out.

 

[randomengine]

The fact that nobody owns it is the very point of this conversation. it clearly is not resonating with consumers. No amount of arguing will change the fact that nobody is buying the thing.

4 million nobodies, lol. Obviously you are just trolling.

 

[Ansatz]

Those internally think the Wii U's success depends on a single game just like Wii Sports or a Super Mario Bros.

That's just damage control to buy time.

They can't survive another Wii U-like failure.

I would word it differently: It won't be feasible for them to stay in the home console sector if they fail twice in a row. Over the course of an entire gen, Wii U + 3DS could actually turn a profit. The question isn't "are we loosing too much money?" but rather "is it worth investing if we can't achieve high revenues?"

 

[rjinaz]

It's a dead system. I don't say that with any happiness or glee, and I intend to pick one up myself someday. But it's dead.

Yup I feel the same way. There seems to be this mindset of some Nintendo fans that if you think the Wii U is a failure, then you obviously hate Nintendo and are doing flips right now of happiness.

Umm no, I can just read the writing on the wall. I actually like a lot of what Nintendo puts out there. I plan to buy a Wii U when games like X hit, but I know that I'm buying a console that has essentially failed.

 

[randomengine]

pretty sure third parties are predicting how it will turn out, which is why they've abandoned the platform.

Is there any system at all, historically, that started out this badly with no competition and recovered? I'll save you the trouble- there isn't.

Wii proved that you don't need a lot of third-party support to succeed.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

4 million nobodies, lol. Obviously you are just trolling.

The sales are very underwhelming, and obviously I don't think he literally meant nobody was buying the console.

 

[Father_Brain]

It'll hit 10m. I think 15m is the ceiling.

Maybe, but sales this year have been so awful that I'm just not convinced anymore. Agree that 15M is around the best-case scenario now, though.

 

[SkylineRKR]

it's going to have worse LTD sales than the Gamecube. there is virtually nothing that is going to make this console as successful as the competing consoles. if a new Super Mario Bros. game during the holidays didn't save the console: I don't think much else will. Nintendo should have capitalized on the success of the Wii a year or two before the Wii U came out.

I think peeps also have too much faith in Kart and SSB.

Kart did ridiculously good on Wii, but was it because of Kart of because of the Wii? I think its the latter. The Wii was, without it, already highly desired because of Wii Sports, Wii Fit and the motion controls in general. Mario Kart became a go to game for Wii owners, the 2nd in command to Wii Sports perhaps.

I honestly think Kart Wii U is not going to match the sales of Double Dash, nor its going to make the Wii U a more succesful system than it is now. I don't see everyone rush out of the door to get a Wii U once Mario Karts hits the stores.

 

[randomengine]

Would you prefer if he added the word 'virtually'?

Nah, because even then it wouldn't be true. What is up with all the hyperbolic hate in this thread? It is quite hilarious, actually. It is ok for people not to like Nintendo, but the glee people get from trashing Nintendo is very curious.

 

[Pikma]

Hey OP don't you dare to come and try to inject some sense into this board, we all know the WiiU will be abandoned early next year when Nintendo quits making home consoles(because it makes sense and they're basically bankrupt by now) and that Sony will cancel all development of PSVita games (because it's just not worth it).

 

[rjinaz]

Would you prefer if he added the word 'virtually'?



I would prefer it if people didn't generalise Nintendo fans. Thank you.

I did say some, not all, Unless you are implying there are not some at all, which I don't think is the case. You're welcome I guess.

 

[Yoshichan]

The sad thing here is that I'm buying a Vita and Wii U this year... I don't know why but I'm more interested in those than the PS4/Xbone.

 

[randomengine]

The sales are very underwhelming, and obviously I don't think he literally meant nobody was buying the console.

Would I like the Wii U to sell more? Absolutely. Time will tell how it will ultimately sell. If we knew how things are going to turn out, we wouldn't huddle over the NPD numbers every month.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Wii proved that you don't need a lot of third-party support to succeed.

Wii =/= Wii U in any rational way no matter how much Nintendo wanted it to be

Wii sold to casuals first and foremost

It was cheaper than any reasonable alternative and provided a unique experience that become an instant fad among consumers who had never been interested in video game consoles before

Literally none of that holds for the Wii U. In fact people don't even understand it's a new console a lot of the time

 

[Huff]

randomengine is pretty good. had me going for a little bit

 

[ZealousD]

The Dreamcast's library sucked. The retroactive veneration of it is almost a Gaf meme.

i currently own 26 Dreamcast games, even though the Dreamcast was only available in the US for two years. And I'm still not done. This is coming from somebody who only bought the Dreamcast THIS year.

If I had a WiiU, I would probably only own 6-8 games for it.

 

[Apophis2036]

It would take balls, perhaps balls Iwata doesn't have but if Nintendo got rid of the tablet controller, added the pro controller as standard and sold the NSMB WiiU Premium at $199 with a $500 million marketing budget aimed directly at America it could do a total reversal in fortunes. If they timed it around the release of Mario Kart I think they would see an incredible turnaround in sales.

People often blame third party support and it only having a few must have Nintendo games for the systems failure but the fact is none of that mattered on the Wii.

The customer base has spoken and they said they will not spend $299 on a Nintendo console. $199 is a completely different matter...

Overall I think people are a bit quick to call the WiiU dead, until they get to at least the magic $249 price point and Kart/Smash are released there is always a chance the console could suddenly take off sales wise.

I'm completely unconvinced PS4 and Xbone will sell well once they both sell their first 4 million to hardcore customers, a lot of the 'casual' fans who bought PS360 for CoD mp, Kinect, PS Move, free online gaming and a cheap Blu Ray player will not be back a second time.

 

[Baki]

Maybe, but sales this year have been so awful that I'm just not convinced anymore. Agree that 15M is around the best-case scenario now, though.

Well, they might discontinue it early. So maybe it won't hit 10m. We will see.

 

[randomengine]

Wii =/= Wii U in any rational way no matter how much Nintendo wanted it to be

Wii sold to casuals first and foremost

It was cheaper than any reasonable alternative and provided a unique experience that become an instant fad among consumers who had never been interested in video game consoles before

Literally none of that holds for the Wii U. In fact people don't even understand it's a new console a lot of the time

It still proved my point .

 

[Father_Brain]

Nah, because even then it wouldn't be true. What is up with all the hyperbolic hate in this thread? It is quite hilarious, actually. It is ok for people not to like Nintendo, but the glee people get from trashing Nintendo is very curious.

There's a very special place in my heart for people who baselessly conflate any negative sales discussion of Platform X with "hate" for Platform X or First Party Y.

 

[electroshockwave]

Maybe, but sales this year have been so awful that I'm just not convinced anymore. Agree that 15M is around the best-case scenario now, though.

I think 15 million is feasible in the scenario where it gets a final sales rush because it's cancelled and it's priced at $99 like the Dreamcast.

 

[Fox Mulder]

They'll say Ps3 again and again.

the ps3 launched a year after the 360 at a high price, had worse ports, and MS was doing great at the time with stuff like Gears of War. It still had every chance to recover because it was a playstation with lots of brand awareness, bluray, and kept third party support.

Nintendo lost the wii audience, the console is priced between the 360/ps3 and xb1/ps4, and third parties are gone. There's great games out for the wiiu, but nintendo will have to be far more aggressive with the price and marketing to even get people to give a shit. It's done poorly for two holidays now, the market doesn't want it.

 

[Trago]

The Wii U's most anticipated games aren't out yet. How has it failed when we have yet to play the games we all want the most?

 

[weevles]

Wii proved that you don't need a lot of third-party support to succeed.

But Wii U is not coming close to selling that many systems. The Wii started strong and sold phenomenally well across most of it's lifetime. Wii U is struggling in sales. I have a Wii U and love it, but realistically, it's just not looking good at all.

 

[Some Nobody]

I'm just gonna come out and say it, because variations of this opinion have been annoying me for as long as I've been on NeoGaf.

The Dreamcast's library sucked. The retroactive veneration of it is almost a Gaf meme.

Say it as many times as you like, it will never be true.

 

[Terra]

Nah, because even then it wouldn't be true. What is up with all the hyperbolic hate in this thread? It is quite hilarious, actually. It is ok for people not to like Nintendo, but the glee people get from trashing Nintendo is very curious.

Hyperbolic...hate?

I think I speak for a lot of people on here, when I say that I really WANT Nintendo to be successful. They are an amazing company in many ways, and do bring innovation and good stuff to the table.

However, the current situation is a total mess, and if you look realistic on it, the Wii U is, sadly, a failure of epic proportions. Anything else cannot be said.

Edit: Ah, you got banned I see...

 

[SkylineRKR]

The Wii U's most anticipated games aren't out yet. How has it failed when we have yet to play the games we all want the most?

A lot of games from the infamous list have already been crossed out. These 2 are the last straws, literally.

 

[prag16]

One and done. OP sounds salty. I want the Wii U to do well but it's clear at this point that the market doesn't care.

This "salt"/"salty" nonsense needs to end. This is the ONLY site I've seen it widely used.

For me, it's a failure if it stops receiving quality Nintendo games any time soon. It won't.

Commercially? Yeah, I think it's beyond the point of no return there. Any "turnaround" would be to MAYBE gamecube sales at this point. Even that's looking unlikely at this point.

Hyperbolic...hate?

I think I speak for a lot of people on here, when I say that I really WANT Nintendo to be successful. They are an amazing company in many ways, and do bring innovation and good stuff to the table.

However, the current situation is a total mess, and if you look realistic on it, the Wii U is, sadly, a failure of epic proportions. Anything else cannot be said.

Edit: Ah, you got banned I see...

To be fair, there DOES seem to be a LOT of glee and schadenfreude with regard to Nintendo and the Wii U. But we do see some of that directed towards Sony (early PS3/VIta) and Microsoft (xbone) too.

From ALL sides it's annoying to wade through. As has been said in this thread, the CONSOLE WARZ are an invention of us (gamers) and perhaps gaming media. Trust me, Bill Gates doesn't handle this in line with his depiction in the recent three part South Park episode..

 

[RobFox64tm]

Some systems start of strong and taper out, some start slow and steamroll. I don't think anyone can predict how Wii U will eventually turn out.

Before the November numbers came in, I might have agreed with this. It should be clear now where Wii U is heading if it can only move 220k units during the busiest shopping period of the year WITH a killer new game on the shelves. Wii U will not do any better, and there is nothing that can change that now.

 

[Berordn]

A lot of games from the infamous list have already been crossed out. These 2 are the last straws, literally.

Off the top of my head, there's still...

Animal Crossing
F-Zero
Metroid
Fire Emblem
Kirby
Pokemon
Zelda
Mario Party

Some of those might not happen (lookin' at you, F-Zero), but the rest are sure to pop up on the system regardless of sales/third party support. They haven't blown their whole load yet.

 

[Father_Brain]

Wii proved that you don't need a lot of third-party support to succeed.

Wii had plenty of third-party support. It's just that that support was disproportionately made up of games that catered to the Wii Sports demographic rather than NeoGAF users.

 

[vagabondarts]

Wii had plenty of third-party support. It's just that that support was disproportionately made up of games that catered to the Wii Sports demographic rather than NeoGAF users.

Let's be honest, most of it was garbage. Boom Blox was cool though.

Don't even get me started on the "final fantasy" game that came out for Wii. It's like publishers didn't know what to do with the thing.

 

[Goldenmoney]

The Wii U's most anticipated games aren't out yet. How has it failed when we have yet to play the games we all want the most?

Most would argue that Super Mario 3D World was supposed to be one of those games, and based on critic's ratings, it has every right to be. Yet it has sold poorly and failed to move many Wii U consoles. I agree that there are some really great looking games coming out that I'm personally excited for as well, but the concern is that they won't move many consoles much like 3D World.