Yeah, Mario Kart and Super Smash Bros are probably the biggest system sellers the Wii U can hope for. If that doesn't do anything, then the console is truly doomed to fail. Not even a new Zelda could save it, since that franchise sells even less.
The only way to salvage Wii U as a decent product is new IPs that are fucking amazing. But even then, I think they age of the system-seller is over, at least in terms of some title that is greatly received by reviewers. It might be able to be recovered to make up for itself, like the 3DS, but it will never drive Nintendo forward.
Back in the day, you had competing systems and consumers ready to bite but sitting on a fence about which one. System sellers were your convincing argument. In these times it was kind of okay to have a drought, because everyone was sure they wanted to buy one either way, so it just meant they waited on you. If you could at least get your big hit that sells them on yours out before the other guy, it was fine. But even if a person bought both systems, the market was still rather limited and costs weren't too bad so multiplat was easy.
Later on, around Gamecube/PS2 time, you needed a solid
library because games had just expanded to that level, but X Box also kicked in with Halo and the revelation of the camaraderie akin to PC online experience coming to consoles. A big push for all these systems together was also 3D world capabilities expanding gameplay past the rudimentary limitations of the first 3D gen. Around this time I saw every one of my Nintendo-fanboy friends agree that GC was an overall falling off for Nintendo. It had quality titles but wasn't generating spectacular new IPs or even revitalizing old ones like N64 did. It seemed to only do so once with Metroid Prime, then also RE4 which soon ported to others.
Coming into the next gen you have multiple factors in play. First, the online scene had evolved into a full beast. This is a major aspect of convincing people to go for your system, an additional cost related to the system, and an additional component binding someone to your system to play with their group of friends. Multiplatforming is a way bigger hassle here, so sales to split consumers is going to drop. Libraries have expanded to such sizes that games and even numbers of well-rated games matter less. Now it is about collecting franchises that can be a shared experience/point of relation with friends in that online community.
Here, Nintendo managed to avoid that entire fight by making the Wii. Instead of rolling for the big established franchises, they offered a unique experience. Instead of battling in the realm of "cinematic" experiences, which was the next technology step after general gameplay expansion of the previous generation, they offered accessibility and lowered intimidation. By bringing something new and simple, they took the complicated mess of factors being calculated and opened an opportunity to buy for a "wow, this is neat" factor. The cost was also comparatively low, and their software allowed the easygoing consumerism to flourish on the platform.
But now with the Wii U? Some important changes have taken place. All those factors from the last gen have continued into the current gen. Companies are trying to develop online communities and lock people in more than ever. Combine this with the rising cost of games and a handful of factors wrecking the viability of the used market, and multiplatform is less and less an option. But we still have something else, cell phones and tablets. They have swooped in, sucking up money with the hardware, as well as the simple/intuitive/consumable cost software market the Wii capitalized on. In one sense we are back to the "which one will you get?" Mindset of early eras, but the pairing "I'm definitely going to get
one" attitude has turned to a "Convince me why I need you on top of all this other stuff" attitude.
Clearly, it didn't work. In some ways, everyone is struggling with it. The market has simply expanded to such a level that we are talking about hundreds of titles on any platform, dozens of well-rated experiences, dozens of well-established franchises, and dozens of new novel experiences. A lot of the less invested markets who might have been drawn into it all in previous generations are now contented with their phones and tablets. A lot of people who were buying just for their kids in previous times are now considering the consolidation of media experiences. A lot of people who are more invested don't have enough money so they are going with their friends. Wii U didn't do anything to circumvent any of this or hit a high point on any of these. Even its solitary major strength, Nintendo exclusivity, has been weakly represented in titles.
I have no idea what Nintendo can do in order to stay what they are and also grow business. I think the low-tech option has a bit of a pricing advantage to avoid the fight with Sony and Microsoft, but with that it is directly competing with the tablet market and there it will fail. Overall I see a major expansion of the media market altogether just oversaturating consumers and changing their mindset from "must have something" to "which of all these somethings is worth bothering with?" and that is a mix of community, convenience, novelty, cost, and culture. It seems to me the only way as a publishing/hardware company to succeed is to cast your nets wide and reap the licensing charges on everything as a whole rather than relying on direct profits off your own products. That isn't Nintendo's style. They are trying to be like Apple with a family of products, except Apple is taking the strategy I mentioned in other huge ways where they got footholds early on, so I don't know what will happen to Nintendo.
