Pertinent background reading (GAF threads):
Microsoft Studios (& Partners) Current and Future Landscape
Microsoft mismanagement of third party partnerships leaving developers in a bad state?
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As an XB1 owner, this is a bit of a thought experiment I was doing and I was curious what others think. (Full disclosure: I own a Wii U and XB1. I don't own a PS4 due to lack of exclusives that interest me. However, my PS2/3, Wii, Genesis and NES Classic are all hooked up on my TV stand.) I'm taking it as a given from the jump that we all agree Nintendo and Sony have a ton of ongoing exclusive franchises, studios and partnerships.
From Wikipedia, best-selling VG franchises:
So, what I'm trying to figure out is if these three franchises are of sufficient ongoing success and significance to keep Xbox as a series of consoles afloat on their own. Let's say you can get every other game you can get on an Xbox on PS4 and PC. Let's also say you can get Halo/GOW/Forza on PC as well, but that in this scenario it is no likelier for console players to switch to PC than it is now.
Why did I not include Rare? They have not proven to have massive system sellers for Xbox in the recent past. I think SOT will be successful, but I do not see any indication it will be a massive system seller. Why did I not include Mojang? They make an insane amount of money across platforms so I do not expect a Minecraft 2, if one happens, to be exclusive to Xbox. I also did not include Microsoft Casual Games.
The most recent Halo game have sold less than their previous entries on 360. I can't tell if this is true for Forza and Gears also. But let's assume for this hypothetical that these three series are the only exclusive you will get on the next Xbox system.
If this were to come to pass, do you expect people would continue to purchase Xbox consoles in the numbers they currently do?
Is there any expectation these are not series that will stand the test of time? (Halo debuted in 2001, Forza in 2005 and Gears in 2006.)
Is this the direction you see Microsoft going?
I don't know if there is much purpose to this experiment or if it is a worthwhile though, but, it does seem like many of the other exclusives crumble or don't draw massive sales, so, simply in terms of system appeal, I'm curious if this is the path Xbox is headed down, and if it will make for attrition and eventually an exit from the console space.
Microsoft Studios (& Partners) Current and Future Landscape
Microsoft mismanagement of third party partnerships leaving developers in a bad state?
--
As an XB1 owner, this is a bit of a thought experiment I was doing and I was curious what others think. (Full disclosure: I own a Wii U and XB1. I don't own a PS4 due to lack of exclusives that interest me. However, my PS2/3, Wii, Genesis and NES Classic are all hooked up on my TV stand.) I'm taking it as a given from the jump that we all agree Nintendo and Sony have a ton of ongoing exclusive franchises, studios and partnerships.
From Wikipedia, best-selling VG franchises:
Halo November 15, 2001 65 million[42]
Halo is a science fiction video game series created by Bungie Studios and published by Microsoft Studios, which was later adapted to eight novels, several comic series, a graphic novel, numerous action figures, and an anime series. After Bungie Studios gained independence from Microsoft in 2007, 343 Industries took control of the franchise.
Gears of War November 7, 2006 22 million[102]
Gears of War is a tactical third-person shooter video game developed by Epic Games and published by Microsoft Game Studios, revolving about a war between humans and creatures known as Locust in the fictional planet Sera.
Forza March 27, 2005 ~16 million [127]
Forza is a semi-simulation racing video game franchise made for the Xbox brand of consoles owned by Microsoft Studios. A direct competitor to the PlayStation-exclusive Gran Turismo series, Forza is known for its high level of vehicle customization features, including a car vinyl editor. It is divided between two series; the original track-focused Forza Motorsport developed by American developer Turn 10 Studios, and the 2012-debuted open world-focused Forza Horizon primarily developed by British developer Playground Games.
So, what I'm trying to figure out is if these three franchises are of sufficient ongoing success and significance to keep Xbox as a series of consoles afloat on their own. Let's say you can get every other game you can get on an Xbox on PS4 and PC. Let's also say you can get Halo/GOW/Forza on PC as well, but that in this scenario it is no likelier for console players to switch to PC than it is now.
Why did I not include Rare? They have not proven to have massive system sellers for Xbox in the recent past. I think SOT will be successful, but I do not see any indication it will be a massive system seller. Why did I not include Mojang? They make an insane amount of money across platforms so I do not expect a Minecraft 2, if one happens, to be exclusive to Xbox. I also did not include Microsoft Casual Games.
The most recent Halo game have sold less than their previous entries on 360. I can't tell if this is true for Forza and Gears also. But let's assume for this hypothetical that these three series are the only exclusive you will get on the next Xbox system.
If this were to come to pass, do you expect people would continue to purchase Xbox consoles in the numbers they currently do?
Is there any expectation these are not series that will stand the test of time? (Halo debuted in 2001, Forza in 2005 and Gears in 2006.)
Is this the direction you see Microsoft going?
I don't know if there is much purpose to this experiment or if it is a worthwhile though, but, it does seem like many of the other exclusives crumble or don't draw massive sales, so, simply in terms of system appeal, I'm curious if this is the path Xbox is headed down, and if it will make for attrition and eventually an exit from the console space.