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[Alx]

My issue with the Apple Watch is figuring out how I can wear it and my 'real' Tag Heuer watch. My love for watches and my love for tech are fighting a battle right now.

Yeah I'm having similar issues with all wrist-mounted devices right now... I can see how convenient it can be to check your messages at a glance, without having to grab your phone (not sure about paying though... I'm not using it with my CC or my phone while I could, why would I do it with my watch ?). But then you have to wear those things that, honestly, look like toys. I can't see them replace my current watch (it's not even a luxurious one, just a regular, functional and nice looking one), and I can't be wearing both a real watch and wrist-mounted electronics.

 

[btrboyev]

Apple dealt with this before and that's why we got the iPod Touch.

And look where that is now. This is not hard to wrap around why the Apple watch might not be a huge success. There are a lot of obstacles Apple need to get around, and I'm not not sure they can. The wearable market will be a tough thing to crack.

 

[royalan]

Apple dealt with this before and that's why we got the iPod Touch.

I don't think the market is what it was when the iPod Touch came out. The iPod Touch came out in that narrow strip of time right after smartphone features became popular and before the modern family plan became commonplace and more and more young people were given smartphones of their own. Also, iTunes was the only fully-formed ecosystem at the time, so if you wanted that app experience, but didn't have an iPhone, you got an iPod Touch. Nowadays, people are just as happy with Google Play.

Basically, there was a very visible need driving adoption of the iPod Touch. There isn't for the Apple Watch.

 

[Raistlin]

Isn't this watch going to start at like 350 for the sports edition? That's nothing. Tons of teens have iPads so what's 350 going to be? I don't think you'll see little kids with them, but teens? Yeah. You will.

Just because people have bought iPads doesn't mean they then magically have another $350 laying around. With that logic, shouldn't teens have an innumerable set of ~$350 devices?

People only have so much disposable income, and the question is does this warrant them to reallocate their funds versus purchasing another item or items at that price. Moreover from Apple's perspective, they wouldn't want people foregoing an iPad unless the Apple Watch's to-own costs includes higher margins and higher long-term revenues from app sales. That fact tells me this is obviously not targeted at the same base crows as an iPad, and they themselves do not have expectations or even want it to sell in iPad number. Not if it is eating better financial IP's they own. So unless the margins from the Sports edition are high enough to justify it, they'd rather have people buy new editions of the iPad.

I agree with the OP. I see the Apple watch as being huge. I'm getting major iPad vibes from this thing. Give it another 5 years and we'll be looking back wondering how we got by when things are so much easier with wearable tech now.

Do you agree with the OP that Apple Watch will be big, or do you agree with his reasoning of why it will be big? That latter part is what this thread is arguing, and many do not see a logical or historical rationale for the opinion. At least certainly not anywhere near launch.

 

[Air]

I definitely want one, but I'll wait for a revision. I think it will be big. Don't underestimate the power of convenience. The watch- if done properly will also allow most of the benefits of technology while not ruining interpersonal relationships. I think that's one reason why Google glass failed, it was too obtrusive. This is the opposite. Discrete, powerful and convenient. Will it be as big as iPhones? Most likely not, but I definitely think it'll really jumpstart wearable tech. And hey if one day they decide you can use it without a phone- than at that point is when it may grow as a formidable competitor to smartphones.

 

[SeanR1221]

Just because people have bought iPads doesn't mean they then magically have another $350 laying around. With that logic, shouldn't teens have an innumerable set of ~$350 devices?

People only have so much disposable income, and the question is does this warrant them to reallocate their funds versus purchasing another item or items at that price. Moreover from Apple's perspective, they wouldn't want people foregoing an iPad unless the Apple Watch's to-own costs includes higher margins and higher long-term revenues from app sales. That fact tells me this is obviously not targeted at the same base crows as an iPad, and they themselves do not have expectations or even want it to sell in iPad number. Not if it is eating better financial IP's they own. So unless the margins from the Sports edition are high enough to justify it, they'd rather have people buy new editions of the iPad.


You agree with the OP that Apple Watch will be big, or do you agree with his reasoning of why it will be big. That latter part is what this thread is arguing, and many do not see a logical or historical rationale for the opinion. At least certainly not anywhere near launch.

Because they'll want it when they see all their friends have it. The domino effect will be real. I still remember when the iPad launched. I went to a world conference and people from all over the world wanted to see it and play with it.

I'll bet anything people are going to have a similar reaction with the apple watch. If I get it at launch, a good 3-6 months will probably go by where I'll get asked about it by strangers.

Once the demand is there, 350 won't be anything for these people to spend.

And I agree in both ways, that it will be big and for part of the reasons listed in the OP.

The biggest thing that I see people talking about now? We want it for quick access to messages.

Here's a good example:

So I have 13 clients (all kids with developmental disorders). Of those 13 the majority have therapists working with them following a program I put into place. I frequently get messages throughout the day asking me questions. On top of that, at any time I'm getting questions or emails from those 13 parents. A wearable will quickly bring that info to me without taking it out of my pocket.

It's going to change my job like the iPad did.

 

[LCfiner]

But you’re still gonna need to pull out your phone to respond to those questions. At least to a large portion of them until Siri becomes bang-on perfect….

 

[SuperPac]

I don't think the market is what it was when the iPod Touch came out. The iPod Touch came out in that narrow strip of time right after smartphone features became popular and before the modern family plan became commonplace and more and more young people were given smartphones of their own. Also, iTunes was the only fully-formed ecosystem at the time, so if you wanted that app experience, but didn't have an iPhone, you got an iPod Touch. Nowadays, people are just as happy with Google Play.

Basically, there was a very visible need driving adoption of the iPod Touch. There isn't for the Apple Watch.

Yes, the iPod touch worked well since there were people who wanted the function of an iPhone but were stuck in a 2-year contract already or needed to use a company-approved phone. The iPod touch does not sell well anymore though - that market has moved on to smartphones (iPhone or otherwise).

Was there a visible "need" for the iPod, iPhone or iPad? No. There were already products that did what each of those do and more. But, they offered a better user experience people didn't know they wanted but appreciated and were willing to pay for. The Apple Watch is in a similar position. It will have to prove that people want notifications and quickly-actionable functions on their wrist.

 

[rezuth]

But you’re still gonna need to pull out your phone to respond to those questions. At least to a large portion of them until Siri becomes bang-on perfect….

You don't need to instantly respond to everything at once.

 

[LCfiner]

You don't need to instantly respond to everything at once.

No, but I was thinking more about SeanR1221’s specific example where he has 13 clients asking him questions throughout the day. The notification on the wrist is a convenience because you can determine if it is something you feel needs to be responded to right away or can wait.

but the actual response (if it’s more than just ‘yes/no’) still requires the phone more often than not.

that’s the thing about the watch. it can make some aspect of communication easier but it still requires someone to take out the phone to respond back in any level of detail.

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

I don't think the market is what it was when the iPod Touch came out. The iPod Touch came out in that narrow strip of time right after smartphone features became popular and before the modern family plan became commonplace and more and more young people were given smartphones of their own. Also, iTunes was the only fully-formed ecosystem at the time, so if you wanted that app experience, but didn't have an iPhone, you got an iPod Touch. Nowadays, people are just as happy with Google Play.

Basically, there was a very visible need driving adoption of the iPod Touch. There isn't for the Apple Watch.

And look where that is now. This is not hard to wrap around why the Apple watch might not be a huge success. There are a lot of obstacles Apple need to get around, and I'm not not sure they can. The wearable market will be a tough thing to crack.

My point is not that the iPod Touch is still wildly successful, it's that Apple can and has adopted a current product when there is a demand from a specific demographic.

 

[Shearie]

One of the biggest things to me for wanting an Apple Watch is to be able to control my music and podcast apps on it since I use them a lot.

I'm not someone who looks at their phone whenever there's a second of downtime in my life so there are lots of little things that I can quickly control or look at or have it alert me on the watch where I don't have to pull out my phone a million times so convenience like that goes a long way with me.

I also use Siri quite a bit and it'll be nice to be to just raise my wrist and say "Hey Siri" to activate it.

 

[rezuth]

No, but I was thinking more about SeanR1221’s specific example where he has 13 clients asking him questions throughout the day. The notification on the wrist is a convenience because you can determine if it is something you feel needs to be responded to right away or can wait.

but the actual response (if it’s more than just ‘yes/no’) still requires the phone more often than not.

that’s the thing about the watch. it can make some aspect of communication easier but it still requires someone to take out the phone to respond back in any level of detail.

If it saves him having to pull out the phone all the time it's great. I'm just not sure you understand the convenience of being able to ignore some stuff with just fast glances.

 

[Raistlin]

Because they'll want it when they see all their friends have it. The domino effect will be real. I still remember when the iPad launched. I went to a world conference and people from all over the world wanted to see it and play with it.

I'll bet anything people are going to have a similar reaction with the apple watch. If I get it at launch, a good 3-6 months will probably go by where I'll get asked about it by strangers.

Once the demand is there, 350 won't be anything for these people to spend.

And I agree in both ways, that it will be big and for part of the reasons listed in the OP.

But again, you're not considering the amount of disposable income the mainstream adopter has. In a given year or two, the set of people that can afford a iPhone + iPad + Apple Watch is obviously smaller than that which can do an iPhone + either an iPad or Apple Watch.

So the question becomes, will people be more likely to forgo getting their first iPad or upgrade their aging iPad to get an Apple Watch? I don't know. Even if some or maybe even a majority are, those numbers are inherently less than what we saw with iPad adoption. It's a split market. Unless of course you're arguing that iPad sales will all but die for the community that can't afford both?

The biggest thing that I see people talking about now? We want it for quick access to messages.

Here's a good example:

So I have 13 clients (all kids with developmental disorders). Of those 13 the majority have therapists working with them following a program I put into place. I frequently get messages throughout the day asking me questions. On top of that, at any time I'm getting questions or emails from those 13 parents. A wearable will quickly bring that info to me without taking it out of my pocket.

It's going to change my job like the iPad did.

Except those notifications are already available in cheaper alternatives - Pebble, Fitbit, etc.

Apple Watch can't sell on a single feature alone that is not only present in the phone itself, but also available in other notably cheaper wrist accessories that adds the same sort of convenience you and others are advocating. That feature already is out their for iOS, and quite obviously for all the smart watches and fitness bands that work on Android and WP. Have sales been incredible on those?

 

[number11]

There's definitely a few occasions where I can't take out my phone from my pocket (mainly at work). I constantly feel notifications vibrate in my pocket throughout the day.. having a quick glance at a watch is the perfect solution.

There's a few more features I see being useful but whether that's worth a $350 purchase?.. probably not, but i'm still tempted to get one.

 

[SeanR1221]

But you’re still gonna need to pull out your phone to respond to those questions. At least to a large portion of them until Siri becomes bang-on perfect….

I'm also getting emails, messages from friends and family and other notifications throughout the day. It would be super helpful just to see what I have to pull my phone out for instead of having it out all the time.

But again, you're not considering that amount of money that the mainstream adopter has. In a given year or two, the set of people that can afford a iPhone + iPad + Apple Watch is obviously smaller than that which can do an iPhone + either an iPad or Apple Watch.

So the question becomes, will people be more likely to forgo getting their first iPad or upgrade their aging iPad to get an Apple Watch? I don't know. Even if some or maybe even a majority are, those numbers are inherently less than what we saw with iPad adoption. It's a split market. Unless of course you're arguing that iPad sales will all but die for the community that can't afford both?


Except those notifications are already available in cheaper alternatives - Pebble, Fitbit, etc.

Apple Watch can't sell on a single feature alone that is not only present in the phone itself, but also available in other notably cheaper wrist accessories that adds the same sort of convenience you and others are advocating. That feature already is out their for iOS, and quite obviously for all the smart watches and fitness bands that work on Android and WP. Have sales been incredible on those?

Why do you assume that people would forgo an Apple product to afford it? It could cut into any one of their budgets. I don't know why you're thinking in such narrow terms.

Or some might be like my wife who said she'll pick up a couple extra shifts at the hospital and just buy it with that.

Because the market doesn't want the alternatives and those alternatives will not work as seamlessly with your iPhone as the apple watch will.

So part branding part usability there.

 

[LJ11]

Love the potential, was underwhelmed by the unveiling, will come down to execution. I've added nothing to the discussion, but I definitely see the potential Kevs talking about.

 

[LCfiner]

If it saves him having to pull out the phone all the time it's great. I'm just not sure you understand the convenience of being able to ignore some stuff with just fast glances.

I understand perfectly.

That may be enough to sell some people on the watch. I am not convinced it’s enough to propel the watch to greater success. I think the convenience of that feature is limited.

And my comment was, again, aimed specifically at one person whose use case did not seem to be one where he could ignore a lot of those messages he is receiving throughout the day. But my interpretation of his case may be incorrect.

 

[Raistlin]

There's definitely a few occasions where I can't take out my phone from my pocket (mainly at work). I constantly feel notifications vibrate in my pocket throughout the day.. having a quick glance at a watch is the perfect solution.

There's a few more features I see being useful but whether that's worth a $350 purchase?.. probably not, but i'm still tempted to get one.

Unless you are tied to iMessage, there are alternatives for messaging that have browser support.

Actually even for iMessage there appear to be some 3rd party Windows apps, but I have no idea if they're secure or functional.


For me at work, obviously I have my email open. For messaging though, I used to use GoogleVoice until Google decided to kill off the public API and make it stop working for Windows Phone. Whatsapp now has browser support so that works nice.

 

[tensuke]

who'd wear a watch that's not a circle

 

[Raistlin]

Why do you assume that people would forgo an Apple product to afford it? It could cut into any one of their budgets. I don't know why you're thinking in such narrow terms.

Because that's how people normally categorize their disposable income. They group things and allocate a certain amount of budget to it. Yes they'll sometimes forgo from one group to fund another at a micro level, but for many, $350 is a macro level amount.

For example in a given week or month or more, people will have expectations of what they can spend on unnecessary foods (Starbucks, restaurants), bars/drugs, entertainment (concerts, clubs, movies), etc.

One of those groupings is technology, And within this group or any other, they'll weigh what things are more important. If a new phone is needed, that's typically going to be a high priority. Another high priority might be a TV or laptop. Now you move down to the 'nice to haves' ... which something like a tablet or smart watch is. You keep trimming down the number of people that have the extra income as you move to less and less important devices.

Or some might be like my wife who said she'll pick up a couple extra shifts at the hospital and just buy it with that.

But now you're moving into specific situations - anecdotal instances. Of course some will do this, but that's not what I and others are arguing. We're talking about the market as a whole. I'm arguing that will be the exception, not the rule.

Because the market doesn't want the alternatives and those alternatives will not work as seamlessly with your iPhone as the apple watch will.

So part branding part usability there.

Have we been given a reason to assume it will work more seamlessly for glanceable information? While it seems obvious certain features will (or could) work more seamlessly, you're specifically arguing about glanceable stuff like notifications. That isn't some sort of complex feature or task, and works fine with said alternatives. There isn't much to it. A beep, rumble, or whatever occurs, and you can see the notification at a glance.

Branding though, yes I do see that helping with sales ... and I've stated as much in this thread. But that isn't the reason you and the OP have been arguing. The goal posts are moving.

 

[SeanR1221]

Because that's how people normally categorize their disposable income. They group things and allocate a certain amount of budget to it. Yes they'll sometimes forgo from one group to fund another at a micro level, but for many, $350 is a macro level amount.

For example in a given week or month or more, people will have expectations of what they can spend on unnecessary foods (Starbucks, restaurants), bars/drugs, entertainment (concerts, clubs, movies), etc.

One of those groupings is technology, And within this group or any other, they'll weigh what things are more important. If a new phone is needed, that's typically going to be a high priority. Another high priority might be a TV or laptop. Now you move down to the 'nice to haves' ... which something like a tablet or smart watch is. You keep trimming down the number of people that have the extra income as you move to less and less important devices.


But now you're moving into specific situations - anecdotal instances. Of course some will do this, but that's not what I and others are arguing. We're talking about the market as a whole. I'm arguing that will be the exception, not the rule.


Have we been given a reason to assume it will work more seamlessly for glanceable information? While it seems obvious certain features will (or could) work more seamlessly, you're specifically arguing about glanceable stuff like notifications. That isn't some sort of complex feature or task, and works fine with said alternatives. There isn't much to it. A beep, rumble, or whatever occurs, and you can see the notification at a glance.

Branding though, yes I do see that helping with sales ... and I've stated as much in this thread. But that isn't the reason you and the OP have been arguing. The goal posts are moving.

Lol most people allocate money to certain budgets? What planet are you from, bud? The vast majority of people I know barely budget period, let alone into specific categories.

So yeah, if it means going out to eat less, spending less on the movies, another hobby, etc, people will do it if they want the watch.

They don't go "Oh man the Apple budget is low, better not get an iPad so I can get the watch!"

No goal posts are moving. Your arguments are eerily similar to the "why do you need a bigger version of your phone" when the iPad came out.

I remember the important feature to me was reading and annotating research articles on it and guys like you stomped their feet and said no, thats not enough for the mass public.

 

[Earthanoid]

Yeah I'm having similar issues with all wrist-mounted devices right now... I can see how convenient it can be to check your messages at a glance, without having to grab your phone (not sure about paying though... I'm not using it with my CC or my phone while I could, why would I do it with my watch ?). But then you have to wear those things that, honestly, look like toys. I can't see them replace my current watch (it's not even a luxurious one, just a regular, functional and nice looking one), and I can't be wearing both a real watch and wrist-mounted electronics.

I view my smartwatches as just additional watches in my collection, meaning that they just go into the rotation like the rest. I don't wear them 24/7 and I don't think you really need to wear them all the time for them to be useful. I wear them when I think they'll be useful (e.g., to the gym, days with lots of meetings), other times I wear my regular watches.

But you’re still gonna need to pull out your phone to respond to those questions. At least to a large portion of them until Siri becomes bang-on perfect….

Android Wear is very reliable for short texts and basic actions. I think iPhone voice recognition is a bit behind Android but I bet with the beefier CPU in the Apple Watch it'll be able to handle voice recognition pretty well. So it will still eliminate the need to take the phone out in many cases.

 

[Earthanoid]

who'd wear a watch that's not a circle

http://www.cartier.us/collections/watches/mens-watches/tank

Cartier is famous for their square and rectangular watches. The style is popular so lots of other watchmakers copy this design.

 

[victreeb3l]

When HomeKit and HealthKit really take off, so will the possibilities for the Apple Watch. Now that I think about it, I would love the controls for my home / car keys, thermostat, etc. on a watch. Feels really natural.

 

[CrankyJay]

Unless you are tied to iMessage, there are alternatives for messaging that have browser support.

Actually even for iMessage there appear to be some 3rd party Windows apps, but I have no idea if they're secure or functional.


For me at work, obviously I have my email open. For messaging though, I used to use GoogleVoice until Google decided to kill off the public API and make it stop working for Windows Phone. Whatsapp now has browser support so that works nice.

Don't listen to Raistlin. He's awful at answering email.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

Remember when everyone laughed at the iPad reveal because 'Hurr durr I have a laptop with a REAL OS and a physical keyboard right here, what a useless product!'?

I do, vividly. And technically, you can somewhat understand these reactions from people who haven't used these products yet. It's already happening again, 'I already have a phone that does all this! Who wants an Apple Watch?'.

It's going to be hilarious to check the temperature of this industry again in a year or two.

Comparing the success of the iPad to what the Apple Watch may have is also "hurr durr"

 

[badcrumble]

I still think that the actual economics of the Apple Watch will be surprising. It doesn't make sense for Apple to sell a gold watch that has identical functionality to the $350 aluminum one but costs thousands of dollars UNLESS it's possible to upgrade for vastly less money than the initial purchase cost - like swapping out the internals for $50-100 once every year or two, just like you take mechanical watches in to get cleaned and tuned every few years.

The S1 is apparently an entire computer on a single chip, so it's quite possible that that's how this is going to go. The majority of your initial purchase price will be for the actual casing and strap that you keep forever, not for the replacable internals.

If that's the case, it'll be perfectly possible to keep it on a regular upgrade cycle without spending too much money past the initial purchase.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

I still think that the actual economics of the Apple Watch will be surprising. It doesn't make sense for Apple to sell a gold watch that has identical functionality to the $350 aluminum one but costs thousands of dollars UNLESS it's possible to upgrade for vastly less money than the initial purchase cost - like swapping out the internals for $50-100 once every year or two, just like you take mechanical watches in to get cleaned and tuned every few years.

The S1 is apparently an entire computer on a single chip, so it's quite possible that that's how this is going to go. The majority of your initial purchase price will be for the actual casing and strap that you keep forever, not for the replacable internals.

If that's the case, it'll be perfectly possible to keep it on a regular upgrade cycle without spending too much money past the initial purchase.

Apple and swapping out internals? Are we talking about the same Apple that won't let you even swap out internals on their laptops and desktops?

 

[number11]

http://www.cartier.us/collections/watches/mens-watches/tank

Cartier is famous for their square and rectangular watches. The style is popular so lots of other watchmakers copy this design.

I don't understand why people have such a problem with square watches. What I do find weird though is how most of Apple's stock watch faces (that we've seen) are all circular and digital. Here's my quick attempt at photoshopping a square watch face on the Apple watch.

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

Difference between iPad and Apple Watch is that the latter industry already exists, you can go and buy a Smartwatch now and it will be completely unrevolutionary and uninspiring. We have no reason to believe the Apple Watch will be any different given what we know about it.(I don't deny that it will sell well though, being an Apple product an' all)

 

[Piers]

Now that I own a phone, I don't wear a watch. I don't know how many people are in the same boat, but it feels like this might be a niche market.

Likewise. Watches are almost purely fashion now. Smartphones are how people check the time, if not the computer/clock.

 

[badcrumble]

Apple and swapping out internals? Are we talking about the same Apple that won't let you even swap out internals on their laptops and desktops?

*rolls eyes*

 

[Raistlin]

Lol most people allocate money to certain budgets? What planet are you from, bud? The vast majority of people I know barely budget period, let alone into specific categories.

When I say budgeting, I'm not inherently talking about on an Excel spreadsheet, it's more subconscious than that. People tend to allocate disposable monies in fairly regular levels, there's plenty of sales data to show it.

And yes, for non-necessity technology 'toys', that is a pretty well established area. Most people do not normally purchase a console, smart watch, router, tablet, set-top box, etc all within proximity of each other. And that is especially true if they have higher-weighted items like phones, etc in the mix.

So yeah, if it means going out to eat less, spending less on the movies, another hobby, etc, people will do it if they want the watch.

Some will, but will they en masse?

They don't go "Oh man the Apple budget is low, better not get an iPad so I can get the watch!"

And now you're just taking things way too literal and disregarding the context. I cited Apple products because they were being discussed, not that they were inherently a specific category.

As I've said numerous times, the category is 'nice to have' tech toys. Which it falls into.

No goal posts are moving. Your arguments are eerily similar to the "why do you need a bigger version of your phone" when the iPad came out.

I remember the important feature to me was reading and annotating research articles on it and guys like you stomped their feet and said no, thats not enough for the mass public.

No my arguments are not. First my argument has never been that there is no point in the Apple Watch, and that's not even what this thread is discussing.

Second the goal posts are obviously moving unless you are disregarding what the OP and you originally stated. I'm arguing the grounds of what will cause it to sell, and how much of a market there may be. The OP claims stuff like Apple Pay, and you brought up notifications. Then you moved to things like branding - which I never argued against. How is that not shifting the goalposts? It's the definition of it. I argue a specific point you cited, then you move to something else. Don't lump my objecting arguing points with posters that are outright stating Apple Watch will fail.





I have an idea. Instead of going back and forth, shouting over each others' heads, and moving the talking points to different specific features ... I'll give my overview of what kind of market I see for this, and why I don't see the OP's reasons as being sound. Then you can tell me what holes you see in it.




iPhone and iPad had numerous features that caused them to sell. Some for iPhone were the capacitive screen, multi-touch, and shortly after, a controlled app market. This was a huge jump in UI, interactivity, and capability for a phone. While many initially lamented the iPad as a giant phone, it offered several things above what a laptop could do at the time for a lot of users. Besides a better interactivity model for numerous situations, it actually had good battery life. That later part cannot be undersold.

Now we move to Apple Watch. The OP has cited Apple Pay and the potential for some automation capabilities (as yet undefined), and you have mentioned notifications. My problem is that none of those are of a similar leap to what iPhone and iPad had. There is no single or handful of 'must have' features at this time pushing it like Apples' prior products.

• Sure Apple Pay is cool, but given the amount of times it would be used (even if we assume everyone supported it which is obviously untrue at this point), it doesn't really offer that much of an extra convenience versus pulling out your phone. Realistically the majority user is not buying things hourly. Trying to sell something on convenience only works if either the alternative is particularly unwieldy, or the use-case occurs at a high rate. Neither is true here.

• For home automation, the OP's reasonings are quintessential 'selling on potential', since none of it exists now or will at the time of launch. Does that sometimes work? Sure, but many times it doesn't, so that inherently throws it out as a logical argument for why it will sell. It could help it, but then again it might not. Moreover most of the examples he gave (starting a car, opening your house) could be done with any NFC device. A cheap ring for instance. They in no way require a smart watch as their basis.

• As for your notification argument, I've already discussed that above.

• Finally what about watch enthusiasts? That's a non-starter in any mainstream manner (and by mainstream I mean mainstream watch enthusiasts, which is already a niche in itself). It does not have established branding to be a show piece, the fact it will inherently be out-of-date due to tech advances kills it as a collectible, there is no one set design that owns the lion's share of watches and this lacks variety, and the design it has is argued by many to not be particularly attractive.

So in summary, I do not see any must-have features. Will it be the next iPhone? As it currently stands there is no logical argument for it since it as yet offers no disruptive capabilities. Do I think it will do well? Sure, based on a combination of decent features similar to other smart watches plus Apple branding, I see it beating out anyone else's current offering. Will it do iPad numbers? The market has changed since its launch, so who knows, it could beat first year numbers. But for all the reasons I've stated here and about money above, I certainly don't see it doing more recent iPad numbers; both on its merits, plus the fact many iPad's are actually purchased by people without iPhones. That's not an option here.

 

[Raistlin]

Don't listen to Raistlin. He's awful at answering email.

That has what to do with what I said exactly?

Spoiler

fucker

 

[SeanR1221]

When I say budgeting, I'm not inherently talking about on an Excel spreadsheet, it's more subconscious than that. People tend to allocate disposable monies in fairly regular levels, there's plenty of sales data to show it.

And yes, for non-necessity technology 'toys', that is a pretty well established area. Most people do not normally purchase a console, smart watch, router, tablet, set-top box, etc all within proximity of each other. And that is especially true if they have higher-weighted items like phones, etc in the mix.


Some will, but will they en masse?


And now you're just taking things way too literal and disregarding the context. I cited Apple products because they were being discussed, not that they were inherently a specific category.

As I've said numerous times, the category is 'nice to have' tech toys. Which it falls into.


No my arguments are not. First my argument has never been that there is no point in the Apple Watch, and that's not even what this thread is discussing.

Second the goal posts are obviously moving unless you are disregarding what the OP and you originally stated. I'm arguing the grounds of what will cause it to sell, and how much of a market there may be. The OP claims stuff like Apple Pay, and you brought up notifications. Then you moved to things like branding - which I never argued against. How is that not shifting the goalposts? It's the definition of it. I argue a specific point you cited, then you move to something else. Don't lump my objecting arguing points with posters that are outright stating Apple Watch will fail.





I have an idea. Instead of going back and forth, shouting over each others' heads, and moving the talking points to different specific features ... I'll give my overview of what kind of market I see for this, and why I don't see the OP's reasons as being sound. Then you can tell me what holes you see in it.




iPhone and iPad had numerous features that caused them to sell. Some for iPhone were the capacitive screen, multi-touch, and shortly after, a controlled app market. This was a huge jump in UI, interactivity, and capability for a phone. While many initially lamented the iPad as a giant phone, it offered several things above what a laptop could do at the time for a lot of users. Besides a better interactivity model for numerous situations, it actually had good battery life. That later part cannot be undersold.

Now we move to Apple Watch. The OP has cited Apple Pay and the potential for some automation capabilities (as yet undefined), and you have mentioned notifications. My problem is that none of those are of a similar leap to what iPhone and iPad had. There is no single or handful of 'must have' features at this time pushing it like Apples' prior products.

• Sure Apple Pay is cool, but given the amount of times it would be used (even if we assume everyone supported it which is obviously untrue at this point), it doesn't really offer that much of an extra convenience versus pulling out your phone. Realistically the majority user is not buying things hourly. Trying to sell something on convenience only works if either the alternative is particularly unwieldy, or the use-case occurs at a high rate. Neither is true here.

• For home automation, the OP's reasonings are quintessential 'selling on potential', since none of it exists now or will at the time of launch. Does that sometimes work? Sure, but many times it doesn't, so that inherently throws it out as a logical argument for why it will sell. It could help it, but then again it might not. Moreover most of the examples he gave (starting a car, opening your house) could be done with any NFC device. A cheap ring for instance. They in no way require a smart watch as their basis.

• As for your notification argument, I've already discussed that above.

• Finally what about watch enthusiasts? That's a non-starter in any mainstream manner (and by mainstream I mean mainstream watch enthusiasts, which is already a niche in itself). It does not have established branding to be a show piece, the fact it will inherently be out-of-date due to tech advances kills it as a collectible, there is no one set design that owns the lion's share of watches and this lacks variety, and the design it has is argued by many to not be particularly attractive.

So in summary, I do not see any must-have features. Will it be the next iPhone? As it currently stands there is no logical argument for it since it as yet offers no disruptive capabilities. Do I think it will do well? Sure, based on a combination of decent features similar to other smart watches plus Apple branding, I see it beating out anyone else's current offering. Will it do iPad numbers? The market has changed since its launch, so who knows, it could beat first year numbers. But for all the reasons I've stated here and about money above, I certainly don't see it doing more recent iPad numbers; both on its merits, plus the fact many iPad's are actually purchased by people without iPhones. That's not an option here.

Well, I'm not going to write a dissertation on it like above, so heres the hole.

I do not see any must-have features

And I do, and I've already explained why. Now all we need to do is wait for sales numbers to start rolling in and we'll see who eats some yummy crow.

 

[GuitarAtomik]

This one is the best android watch I've seen. But the lack of a digital crown-esque mechanism to control it is a huge turn off. Those screens are just too small fer pinch gestures.

Even in the conference demo they barely actually use the crown. It will be useful for that particular UI when you need it, but the Android Wear UI isn't built around any zoom function so it's kind of a moot point. And even if an app came out that needed pinch to zoom, it would be totally fine for the action.

 

[Shearie]

Even in the conference demo they barely actually use the crown. It will be useful for that particular UI when you need it, but the Android Wear UI isn't built around any zoom function so it's kind of a moot point. And even if an app came out that needed pinch to zoom, it would be totally fine for the action.

It's not just for zoom but also list selection which I think is what the Digital Crown will be mostly used for.

 

[GuitarAtomik]

It's not just for zoom but also list selection which I think is what the Digital Crown will be mostly used for.

And yet, they used the touch screen most of the time for most of those actions. I'm not saying it's not useful, but it's also not exactly a game changing distinguishing feature.

 

[ayeorkean]

Would have liked to seen something like this.

 

[SuperPac]

I don't doubt that a round screen would be better for the clock function of the watch, but it would bad for just about everything else especially displaying text. If it weren't, we'd have round-screened computers, phone, screens everywhere.

All the mockups of something that "would have been better" than what Apple's shown off already is like...

 

[Scoot McNairy]

With the complete surprise of the iPad being a success (which I still don't understand other than the price being way less than an Air), I can easily believe this will be a success. Hopefully that success will in turn give it some reason to exist.

 

[SURGEdude]

I don't always ascribe to the mantra of never buying a 1st gen Apple products. However despite a lot of positives I think gen 2 will be when it hits stride.

 

[btrboyev]

With the complete surprise of the iPad being a success (which I still don't understand other than the price being way less than an Air), I can easily believe this will be a success. Hopefully that success will in turn give it some reason to exist.

We are seeing the tablet market die down and shrink because phones are getting bigger and battery life is equal.

 

[Majine]

Would have liked to seen something like this.

I think Apple of all people would know that circular screens suck.

 

[RevoDS]

When I say budgeting, I'm not inherently talking about on an Excel spreadsheet, it's more subconscious than that. People tend to allocate disposable monies in fairly regular levels, there's plenty of sales data to show it.

And yes, for non-necessity technology 'toys', that is a pretty well established area. Most people do not normally purchase a console, smart watch, router, tablet, set-top box, etc all within proximity of each other. And that is especially true if they have higher-weighted items like phones, etc in the mix.


Some will, but will they en masse?


And now you're just taking things way too literal and disregarding the context. I cited Apple products because they were being discussed, not that they were inherently a specific category.

As I've said numerous times, the category is 'nice to have' tech toys. Which it falls into.


No my arguments are not. First my argument has never been that there is no point in the Apple Watch, and that's not even what this thread is discussing.

Second the goal posts are obviously moving unless you are disregarding what the OP and you originally stated. I'm arguing the grounds of what will cause it to sell, and how much of a market there may be. The OP claims stuff like Apple Pay, and you brought up notifications. Then you moved to things like branding - which I never argued against. How is that not shifting the goalposts? It's the definition of it. I argue a specific point you cited, then you move to something else. Don't lump my objecting arguing points with posters that are outright stating Apple Watch will fail.





I have an idea. Instead of going back and forth, shouting over each others' heads, and moving the talking points to different specific features ... I'll give my overview of what kind of market I see for this, and why I don't see the OP's reasons as being sound. Then you can tell me what holes you see in it.




iPhone and iPad had numerous features that caused them to sell. Some for iPhone were the capacitive screen, multi-touch, and shortly after, a controlled app market. This was a huge jump in UI, interactivity, and capability for a phone. While many initially lamented the iPad as a giant phone, it offered several things above what a laptop could do at the time for a lot of users. Besides a better interactivity model for numerous situations, it actually had good battery life. That later part cannot be undersold.

Now we move to Apple Watch. The OP has cited Apple Pay and the potential for some automation capabilities (as yet undefined), and you have mentioned notifications. My problem is that none of those are of a similar leap to what iPhone and iPad had. There is no single or handful of 'must have' features at this time pushing it like Apples' prior products.

• Sure Apple Pay is cool, but given the amount of times it would be used (even if we assume everyone supported it which is obviously untrue at this point), it doesn't really offer that much of an extra convenience versus pulling out your phone. Realistically the majority user is not buying things hourly. Trying to sell something on convenience only works if either the alternative is particularly unwieldy, or the use-case occurs at a high rate. Neither is true here.

• For home automation, the OP's reasonings are quintessential 'selling on potential', since none of it exists now or will at the time of launch. Does that sometimes work? Sure, but many times it doesn't, so that inherently throws it out as a logical argument for why it will sell. It could help it, but then again it might not. Moreover most of the examples he gave (starting a car, opening your house) could be done with any NFC device. A cheap ring for instance. They in no way require a smart watch as their basis.

• As for your notification argument, I've already discussed that above.

• Finally what about watch enthusiasts? That's a non-starter in any mainstream manner (and by mainstream I mean mainstream watch enthusiasts, which is already a niche in itself). It does not have established branding to be a show piece, the fact it will inherently be out-of-date due to tech advances kills it as a collectible, there is no one set design that owns the lion's share of watches and this lacks variety, and the design it has is argued by many to not be particularly attractive.

So in summary, I do not see any must-have features. Will it be the next iPhone? As it currently stands there is no logical argument for it since it as yet offers no disruptive capabilities. Do I think it will do well? Sure, based on a combination of decent features similar to other smart watches plus Apple branding, I see it beating out anyone else's current offering. Will it do iPad numbers? The market has changed since its launch, so who knows, it could beat first year numbers. But for all the reasons I've stated here and about money above, I certainly don't see it doing more recent iPad numbers; both on its merits, plus the fact many iPad's are actually purchased by people without iPhones. That's not an option here.

I know you've already denied that, but the crux of your argument brings back the memories of the iPad reveal in a huge way.

I was among the iPad doubters saying it's just a big iPod touch and had no purpose whatsoever. In my mind back then, it was completely useless.

Then the sales exploded. My own mom got one 6 months after launch. My sister followed a year later, then my brother. And...I saw the light. I'm writing this post on my iPad. I swore I'd never doubt Apple again.

Besides, Apple Watch has a great deal more obvious killer features than an iPad ever had at launch. The iPad was purely made by developers, it didn't have any inherently new features out of the box. The watch does. Features for the health conscious, new messaging, Apple Pay, the automation the OP mentioned, notifications without pulling your phone (I'm not sure why you're disputing this feature's usefulness; pulling your phone in many settings, socially or in meetings for example, is extremely frowned upon while glancing at your watch isn't).

You've got enough features to account for a sizable market there.

That said, I think it's gonna sell well but it isn't going to be huge for Apple. The iPhone is so huge that it'd need an insane attach rate to even be more than a rounding error in Apple's financial statements. It's going to be a very popular product, but at a $350 entry price it's not going to change much for Apple unless the ASP ends up in the stratosphere due to the gold edition. Unless you count the potential but hardly measurable effect of bringing new people into the iOS fold.

 

[ayeorkean]

I don't doubt that a round screen would be better for the clock function of the watch, but it would bad for just about everything else especially displaying text. If it weren't, we'd have round-screened computers, phone, screens everywhere.

All the mockups of something that "would have been better" than what Apple's shown off already is like...

The watch is mainly a fashion accessory so the aesthetics is also part of the function of the device. A circle just seems more interesting aesthetically.

Also the functions of the device like "glances", "actionable notification" mean that this device is not really for displaying large amount of texts.

 

[royalan]

Besides, Apple Watch has a great deal more obvious killer features than an iPad ever had at launch. The iPad was purely made by developers, it didn't have any inherently new features out of the box. The watch does. Features for the health conscious, new messaging, Apple Pay, the automation the OP mentioned, notifications without pulling your phone (I'm not sure why you're disputing this feature's usefulness; pulling your phone in many settings, socially or in meetings for example, is extremely frowned upon while glancing at your watch isn't).

Features for the health conscious -- Already available on most phones and cheaper wrist devices that aren't locked to a single ecosystem.

New Messaging -- Huh?

Apple Pay -- Already available on the iPhone, and since you need an iPhone for the watch to work, this doesn't even open the Apple Pay market for people with other phone brands.

Automation the OP mentioned -- Can we stop talking about home automation like it's coming anytime soon for the average American citizen? We have houses in Philly selling for a $300,000 plus that still use radiator heat. Most landlords are struggling to keep their units up to codes that were established in the 90s. Most students in East Coast cities who own iPhones and Macbooks are living in apartments carved out of old rowhomes. But we want to start talking about home automation? For the average person that's at least a decade away, and that's being generous. You're not selling anything to the mass consumer on the promise of home automation anytime soon.

 

[RevoDS]

Features for the health conscious -- Already available on most phones and cheaper wrist devices that aren't locked to a single ecosystem.

New Messaging -- Huh?

Apple Pay -- Already available on the iPhone, and since you need an iPhone for the watch to work, this doesn't even open the Apple Pay market for people with other phone brands.

Automation the OP mentioned -- Can we stop talking about home automation like it's coming anytime soon for the average American citizen? We have houses in Philly selling for a $300,000 plus that still use radiator heat. Most landlords are struggling to keep their units up to codes that were established in the 90s. Most students in East Coast cities who own iPhones and Macbooks are living in apartments carved out of old rowhomes. But we want to start talking about home automation? For the average person that's at least a decade away, and that's being generous. You're not selling anything to the mass consumer on the promise of home automation anytime soon.

Let's be real here, anyone who cared about not being locked to a single ecosystem wasn't going to buy it either way by virtue of it being an Apple product. And the people who do want to buy it, already have an iPhone and don't give a fuck about that.

The messaging part was referring to the Pictochat-like feature which could be big, especially among teens.

Apple Pay? Sure, but its appeal is being simpler than other solutions; on the watch, this goes a step further since you don't have to actually take anything out. Point your wrist to the EMV and be on your way.

I don't disagree though with the automation part. The potential is there, but no, it's not gonna happen tomorrow.

Despite that, you've conveniently left behind my main point: besides the larger screen, what did the iPad have in terms of killer features at launch? My answer is a lot less than the Apple Watch does, yet it was a massive success.

 

[Blackhead]

Let's be real here, anyone who cared about not being locked to a single ecosystem wasn't going to buy it either way by virtue of it being an Apple product. And the people who do want to buy it, already have an iPhone and don't give a fuck about that.

The messaging part was referring to the Pictochat-like feature which could be big, especially among teens.

Apple Pay? Sure, but its appeal is being simpler than other solutions; on the watch, this goes a step further since you don't have to actually take anything out. Point your wrist to the EMV and be on your way.

I don't disagree though with the automation part. The potential is there, but no, it's not gonna happen tomorrow.

Despite that, you've conveniently left behind my main point: besides the larger screen, whaqt did the iPad have in terms of killer features at launch? My answer is a lot less than the Apple Watch does, yet it was a massive success.

You have it completely backwards. It's because the iPad was only a larger screen that it sold so well at launch. People were already familiar with the uses and user interface of the iPodTouch/iPhone, they already wanted those devices so a bigger screen just amplified demand, and there was little else like the iPad at that time

The iWatch is a different paradigm that the mainstream isn't familiar with. First Apple has to convince them on these 'killer features', then teach them about the user interface, then make wearing an smartwatch socially acceptable instead of geeky... it's a much harder sell than the iPad