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[speculawyer]

As is well known, I have shares in TTWO and Pachter has been very negative on TTWO. And based on the recent TTWO results, I want to do a little friendly "I told you so!"

The others have primarily made only brand extensions for the Wii and DS. That all changes with Boogie from EA, which looks like a real winner. Also, Activision will get Guitar Hero out on the Wii before MTV gets Rock Band out, and I think that will give them an advantage.

EA's Wii-exclusive rhythm game Boogie

Take-Two is probably the worst on the Wii and DS, having ignored both until now. I don't think that its Carnival Games will be a huge seller. The Bigs on Wii is fun, but not very innovative.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/1663/analyze_this_are_game_publishers_.php?print=1

Ouch. . . . Boogie got crap reviews and largely bombed. And guess what was the #1 selling 3rd party Wii game in September? That's right, Carnival games with 110K.

Take-Two Interactive
Releases during September: 9/10 NHL 2K8 (PS3, PS2, 360), 10/1 NBA 2K8 (PS3, PS2, 360), 10/3 MLB Power Pros.
(PS2, Wii).
Take-Two�s retail sales were down 24% sequentially from last month, and +52% over last September, compared to
our estimate of +32% year-over-year. Bioshock sold less than our estimate of 200,000 units in its second month (-
70% from last month). New release NBA 2K8 sold more than our estimate of 100,000 units. Carnival Games sold very
well, offset by a poor performance from All-Pro Football (which has life-to-date sales of under 125,000 units). Take-
Two�s ASP for all units sold was $39.99, +43% from last year�s $27.88.

Take-Two exceeded our expectations, Atari, Majesco, and THQ met our expectations, and Activision,
Electronic Arts, Midway, and Ubisoft each came in below our expectations.

We expect mixed market reaction to the sales data, especially because most of the companies� results
were consistent with expectations for the quarter. Although industry growth was in line with our estimate,
individual company sales results were generally lower. Overall software sales should remain strong for
the balance of the year, and we expect recent price cuts for hardware to alleviate concerns about slowing
industry sales or a weakening economy.

We would opportunistically add to positions in Activision, Electronic Arts, GameStop, THQ, and Ubisoft.

So TTWO was the only company to exceed your results . . . and you'll continue to remain so negative on them?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Hah, an investor, eh? When I saw you down on his Bioshock/Carnival Games predictions, I thought it was just a system advocacy thing.

 

[DarienA]

Hah, an investor, eh? When I saw you down on his Bioshock/Carnival Games predictions, I thought it was just a system advocacy thing.

...it's both.

 

[Kintaro]

I guess any victory is still a victory eh? :lol

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Hah, an investor, eh? When I saw you down on his Bioshock/Carnival Games predictions, I thought it was just a system advocacy thing.

They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

 

[theBishop]

when did he say it, and when did you buy? relative to the gta delay, i mean.

 

[Bowen_B]

Well Take-Two are awesome so I approve of this thread.

 

[Stumpokapow]

[quote Pachter's Bully predictions]

The best part about being an analyst is that when you get it wrong, you know people will be there to remind you.

 

[SupahBlah]

Pachter should participate in the SW predications so we can see where a professional does on the table.

 

[Kenka]

Wha...110'000 for Carnival Games ?! So Amazon wasn't overestimating it. And it is still in the top 25. Wahnsinn.

 

[Amused_To_Death]

Who cares...Both are shitty games, kind of sad the top 3rd party seller for the month is carnival games? Kind of sad for Wii gamers overall...

 

[speculawyer]

Wha...110'000 for Carnival Games ?! So Amazon wasn't overestimating it. And it is still in the top 25. Wahnsinn.

It is not a terrible game, but certainly not a great one.

It's success is not limited to the USA either . . . it seems to be doing well in the UK as is R* Table Tennis for the Wii.

 

[speculawyer]

Hah, an investor, eh? When I saw you down on his Bioshock/Carnival Games predictions, I thought it was just a system advocacy thing.

I have all three consoles and try to be relatively neutral. But I certainly spend most of my gaming time on the 360 since that is where the best games are these days.

 

[speculawyer]

when did he say it, and when did you buy? relative to the gta delay, i mean.

I've been in TTWO for a while . . . and yeah, I got really slammed by the GTA delay . . . Pachter even sent me a PM to rub salt in that wound. :lol But I stood behind TTWO and it appears that the GTA 4 delay may end up being a good thing since:
1) This xmas was already too crowded with good software.
2) There will be far more 360s due to Halo 3 & xmas 07.
3) There will be far more PS3s due to $399 and xmas 07.
4) If GTA 4 wasn't ready for prime-time, better to delay it and make it great.

 

[speculawyer]

[quote Pachter's Bully predictions]

The best part about being an analyst is that when you get it wrong, you know people will be there to remind you.

And to his credit, Pachter did apologize to Rockstar for his over negativity on Bully.

 

[Rorschach]

How's APF working out for you guys?

 

[Stumpokapow]

Who cares...Both are shitty games, kind of sad the top 3rd party seller for the month is carnival games? Kind of sad for Wii gamers overall...

Wii releases in September:
- MySims
- Pool Party
- DDR: Hottest Party
- Hot Wheels: Beat That!
- Balls of Fury
- Dragon Blade: Wrath of Fire
- Dewy's Adventure
- Puzzle Quest
- Cosmic Family
- Ninjabread Man
- Fishing Master
- Pimp My Ride

Which do you see as being a better top-seller than Carnival Games? MySims will do well long-term as I'm sure will DDR.

Obviously it sucks that Wii games, like 360 games, are demonstrating relatively short legs... but Carnival Games is pretty much the biggest September period release other than MySims.

 

[plagiarize]

It is not a terrible game, but certainly not a great one.

It's success is not limited to the USA either . . . it seems to be doing well in the UK as is R* Table Tennis for the Wii.

only one first party game in the top 5 software. interesting.

 

[Kenka]

Triple post in a matter of four minutes. You did it man.

And ugh at Carnival Games being 8th in Amazon UK chart :lol What is this game at 15# ? Don't think having heard about it.

[edit] quadruple post ! Let the champagne flow

 

[plagiarize]

Triple post in a matter of four minutes. You did it man.

And ugh at Carnival Games being 8th in Amazon UK chart :lol What is this game at 15# ? Don't think having heard about it.

[edit] quadruple post ! Let the champagne flow

high school musical was some (i believe) made for TV/video disney movie thing that is HUGE with kids these days. this is a game based on it. we get people regularly asking about games based on the films (they made a sequel i think) at the EB i work part time at.

had no idea it was popular in Europe too, and as much as Boogie was lacklustre, it is very depressing to see it being outsold by this.

just checked wiki, and yep. i wasn't mistaken.

the soundtrack cd was the best selling album of last year.

 

[Kenka]

only one first party game in the top 5 software. interesting.

+ : 11 games out of the eighteen listed in the top 25 are third-parties titles. That's some mind-expanding stuff

 

[golem]

I've been in TTWO for a while . . . and yeah, I got really slammed by the GTA delay . . . Pachter even sent me a PM to rub salt in that wound. :lol

:lol

 

[Amused_To_Death]

Wii releases in September:
- MySims
- Pool Party
- DDR: Hottest Party
- Hot Wheels: Beat That!
- Balls of Fury
- Dragon Blade: Wrath of Fire
- Dewy's Adventure
- Puzzle Quest
- Cosmic Family
- Ninjabread Man
- Fishing Master
- Pimp My Ride

Which do you see as being a better top-seller than Carnival Games? MySims will do well long-term as I'm sure will DDR.

Obviously it sucks that Wii games, like 360 games, are demonstrating relatively short legs... but Carnival Games is pretty much the biggest September period release other than MySims.

Looking at that list makes me want to vomit...What are devs/pubs thinking when the Wii is selling like hotcakes and this is what they offer?

 

[SaggyMonkey]

I'm also invested in TTWO, so you stick it to Pachter. It hasn't been doing too bad lately, but i'm hanging in for the new GTA date which will probably make it happy again.

 

[JDSN]

I've been in TTWO for a while . . . and yeah, I got really slammed by the GTA delay . . . Pachter even sent me a PM to rub salt in that wound.

Screen cap, please. :lol

 

[drohne]

events may have proven him wrong about boogie, but his reasoning was sound -- 'it's on wii and it's total fucking garbage; it's bound to sell'

and isn't sound reasoning what we really want from analysts

 

[botticus]

and isn't sound reasoning what we really want from forum posters

And still we wait.

 

[Ranger X]

- MySims
- Dewy's Adventure
- Puzzle Quest



Those should have sold SO MORE than Carnival Games. What a sad world.

 

[speculawyer]

How's APF working out for you guys?

Compared to Madden? Awful
Compared to most games that get released? Pretty good.

If they add features and get better reviews, it could do better next year (assuming they release it). But it is clear that football gamers pretty much demand an NFL or NCAA license.

But IMHO, the game needs to exist to keep their football game code fresh for when the NFL and/or NCAA license comes up for renewal. If 2K Sports does a good job talking to the NFL, they should be able to convince the NFL that it is in their interest to have a nonexclusive license. They way to do this is to offer a fixed royalty amount per game sold for a certain amount of time . . . i.e. maybe $N per copy no matter what the retail price of the game is. That way, the $19.99 problem that probably annoyed the NFL would be gone.

If there are two licensed NFL games available then more overall NFL games will be sold than if there is only one NFL game available.

 

[polyh3dron]

Pachter should participate in the SW predications so we can see where a professional does on the table.

Patcher would never stoop so low.

Spoiler

It would show that many at GAF would be better suited for his job then he is, and then before you know it, Wedbush Morgan GAF Job Fair CONFIRMED.

 

[platypotamus]

As is well known, I have shares in TTWO and Pachter has been very negative on TTWO. And based on the recent TTWO results, I want to do a little friendly "I told you so!"

speculawyer
clairvoyancy is no excuse for trollin'



(someone had to do it)

 

[polyh3dron]

speculawyer
clairvoyancy is no excuse for trollin'



(someone had to do it)

Looking at that post linked in his tag it did not really seem like trolling (as I define it at least).

 

[speculawyer]

Screen cap, please. :lol

And he is right, I have been a bit unfair at times and have apologized. TTWO sure blind-sided me with the GTA 4 delay. Here are areas were I'll admit I've been wrong . . . I expected better of APF 2K8, I also thought Bioshock would have better legs in the September numbers, etc. I do think TTWO has done a lot better than he gives them credit for.

 

[kathode]

I bought into TTWO on the GTA4 delay drop, and have been loving it ever since. Go Carnival Games!

 

[speculawyer]

Looking at that post linked in his tag it did not really seem like trolling (as I define it at least).

I tend to argue a lot of stuff from a biz perspective and it often comes off fanboy trolling. But I think I've been proven right twice now in my argument against BC . . . Sony first dropped the EE to go to software BC and now Sony has completely dropped BC. BC is a neat feature for consumers, but it can be a difficult and expensive issue for console makers.

 

[Souldriver]

I'll make a thread to congratulate you, Speculawyer

 

[dionysus]

I am also an investor in TTWO. I bought when they were in the midst of all the stock options backdating scandal and were being threatened with delisting. Then, in the smartest move I have made in a while, I bought even more stock the week the GTAIV delay happened. Its turned out pretty nicely so far.

Edit. Do I get a cookie? I'll make a thread.

 

[speculawyer]

Looking at that list makes me want to vomit...What are devs/pubs thinking when the Wii is selling like hotcakes and this is what they offer?

With the success of Carnival games, expect the flood of casual shovelware to continue. As a gamer, I can't say I'm into that stuff . . . but as an investor . . . well, if it sells . . .

 

[Innotech]

Am I the only one who bought Dewey?
I cry for the little guy.

 

[DrLazy]

I guess I'm one of the few that likes carnival games. I don't own it, but my friend's girlfriend loves it. Its really a kids game.

I sometimes feel like it is hard for kids games to get good reviews.

 

[kenta]

For all the crap Pachter gets, he comes across as a real class act. I mean that, I really respect the guy

 

[Kenka]

As a gamer, I can't say I'm into that stuff . . . but as an investor . . . well, if it sells . . .

Come on speculawyer, you're giving schizophrenia a chance. Realize it ?

 

[dionysus]

Question: Do video game analysts receive debug units and preview builds like journalists?

Heck, do they even play games?

 

[Barbacoatl]

Specu, what is that 'TaqueriaAntojitos' PDF? I'm curious.

Glad to see Carnival games doing well, it's a fun family game; crying about its sales is like weeping for Ratatouille's success.

 

[Gigglepoo]

Question: Do video game analysts receive debug units and preview builds like journalists?

Heck, do they even play games?

Why would they have to play games?

 

[GhaleonEB]

And he is right, I have been a bit unfair at times and have apologized. TTWO sure blind-sided me with the GTA 4 delay. Here are areas were I'll admit I've been wrong . . . I expected better of APF 2K8, I also thought Bioshock would have better legs in the September numbers, etc. I do think TTWO has done a lot better than he gives them credit for.

PMs should stay PMs, kind of weird to post it like that. It's a strange little rivalry you've got going here, but it's fun to follow.

 

[devilscallmedad]

I guess I'm one of the few that likes carnival games. I don't own it, but my friend's girlfriend loves it. Its really a kids game.

I sometimes feel like it is hard for kids games to get good reviews.

 

[ComputerNerd]

I guess I'm one of the few that likes carnival games. I don't own it, but my friend's girlfriend loves it. Its really a kids game.

I sometimes feel like it is hard for kids games to get good reviews.

 

[Haunted]

For all the crap Pachter gets, he comes across as a real class act. I mean that, I really respect the guy

That's what I've been saying! But everyone's just laughed at me.

 

[speculawyer]

Specu, what is that 'TaqueriaAntojitos' PDF? I'm curious.

Today's lunch . . . sorry . . . I should have added a window with 'TrannySurprise'.