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[theusedversion]

So despite this article being 3 years old, it somehow found its way into my Google News app. Or more likely I somehow linked to it from a different story. Regardless, there are several current events that one could relate to this. I follow the news concerning China and the region almost daily and have so for the past 5 or so years when I moved to Southeast Asia. I feel like things are definitely escalating recently and I have no idea where it's heading. China is definitely flexing their muscles. But I can't say that any of this leads to war. I have no idea. But the UN ruling that is expected any day and will likely rule against China which will certainly escalate tensions. Anyways, there are a lot of smart people on GAF and I'm curious to read your thoughts on the matter. Not trying to fear-monger on here.

Originally, I believe, this article appeared in a pro-government newspaper in China. I know sometimes the government over there will float ideas out through thoughtpieces in the news without actually saying anything directly. That doesn't mean that this is what happened this time but its good to keep in mind. I will quote the text on the first two wars and you can read about the rest at the link. I don't buy into the Taiwan part. I think they will just try to integrate themselves closer to Taiwan and develop close ties until the two are practically inseparable from one another. They will take the slow and steady route, in my opinion. But I also don't really hold enough knowledge of what's going to really form a decent opinion.

The 1st War: Unification of Taiwan (Year 2020 to 2025)
The 2nd War: “Reconquest” of Spratly Islands (Year 2025 to 2030)
The 3rd War: “Reconquest” of Southern Tibet (Year 2035 to 2040)
The 4th War: “Reconquest” of Diaoyu Island [Senkaku] and Ryukyu Islands (Year 2040 to 2045)
The 5th War: Unification of Outer Mongolia (Year 2045 to 2050)
The 6th War: Taking back of lands lost to Russia (Year 2055 to 2060)

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/six-wars-china-is-sure-to-fight-in-the-next-50-years/

China is not yet a unified great power. This is a humiliation to the Chinese people, a shame to the children of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of national unification and dignity, China has to fight six wars in the coming fifty years. Some are regional wars; the others may be total wars. No matter what is the nature, each one of them is inevitable for Chinese unification.

The 1st War: Unification of Taiwan (Year 2020 to 2025)

Though we are enjoying peace on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we should not daydream a resolution of peaceful unification from Taiwan administration (no matter it is Chinese Nationalist Party or Democratic Progressive Party). Peaceful unification does not fit their interests while running for elections. Their stance is therefore to keep to status quo (which is favourable to the both parties, each of them can get more bargaining chips) For Taiwan, “independence” is just a mouth talk than a formal declaration, while “unification” is just an issue for negotiation than for real action. The current situation of Taiwan is the source of anxiety to China, since everyone can take the chance to bargain more from China.

China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020. By then, China will have to send an ultimatum to Taiwan, demanding the Taiwanese to choose the resolution of peaceful unification (the most preferred epilogue for the Chinese) or war (an option forced to be so) by 2025. For the purpose of unification, China has to make preparation three to five years earlier. So when the time comes, the Chinese government must act on either option, to give a final answer to the problem.

From the analysis of the current situation, Taiwan is expected to be defiant towards unification, so military action will be the only solution. This war of unification will be the first war under the sense of modern warfare since the establishment of the “New China”. This war will be a test to the development of the People’s Liberation Army in modern warfare. China may win this war easily, or it may turn out to be a difficult one. All depend on the level of intervention of the U.S. and Japan. If the U.S. and Japan play active roles in aiding Taiwan, or even make offensives into Chinese mainland, the war must become a difficult and prolonged total war. On the other hand, if the U.S. and Japan just watch and see, the Chinese army can easily defeat the Taiwanese. In this case, Taiwan can be under control within three months. Even if the U.S. and Japan step in in this stage, the war can be finished within six months.

The 2nd War: “Reconquest” of Spratly Islands (Year 2025 to 2030)

After unification of Taiwan, China will take a rest for two years. During the period of recovery, China will send the ultimatum to countries surrounding the Islands with the deadline of 2028. The countries having disputes on the sovereignty of Islands can negotiate with China on preserving their shares of investments in these Islands by giving up their territorial claims. If not, once China declares war on them, their investments and economic benefits will be taken over by China.

At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with Chinese military unification of Taiwan. On one hand, they will be sitting by the negotiation table, yet they are reluctant to give up their interests in the Islands. Therefore, they will be taking the wait-and-see attitude and keep delaying to make final decision. They will not decide whether to make peace or go into war until China takes any firm actions. The map below shows the situation of territorial claims over the Spratly Islands. (Map omitted)

Besides, the U.S. will not just sit and watch China “reconquesting” the Islands. In the 1stwar mentioned above, the U.S. may be too late to join the war, or simply unable to stop China from reunifying Taiwan. This should be enough to teach the U.S. a lesson not to confront too openly with China. Still, the U.S. will aid those South East Asian countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, under the table. Among the countries surrounding the South China Sea, only Vietnam and the Philippines dare to challenge China’s domination. Still, they will think twice before going into war with China, unless they fail on the negotiation table, and are sure they can gain military support from the U.S.

The best option for China is to attack Vietnam, since Vietnam is the most powerful country in the region. Beating Vietnam can intimidate the rest. While the war with Vietnam goes on, other countries will not move. If Vietnam loses, others will hand their islands back to China. If the opposite, they will declare war on China.

Of course, China will beat Vietnam and take over all the islands. When Vietnam loses the war and its islands, others countries, intimidated by Chinese military power, yet still with greediness to keep their interests, will negotiate with China, returning the islands and declaring allegiance to China. So China can build the ports and place troops on these islands, extending its influence into the Pacific Ocean.

Up till now, China has made a thorough breakthrough of the First Island Chain and infiltrated the Second one, Chinese aircraft carrier can have free access into the Pacific Ocean, safeguarding its own interests.

Now for some current events that are relevant to this in case you aren't keeping up.

Storm clouds gather over South China Sea ahead of key UN ruling
Like ‘coiling a spring’: Chinese diplomat warns countries against pressuring Beijing over South China Sea
U.S. sails warship near Chinese-claimed reef in South China Sea
Chinese General Visits Disputed Spratly Islands in South China Sea
South China Sea Tit-for-Tat? China Refuses US Aircraft Carrier Port Call
South China Sea Controversy: US Fires Missiles During War Games With Philippines
China Test Fires Nuclear-Capable Missile into the South China Sea
Japan's East China Sea Military Buildup Continues
China to Take Scarborough Shoal Next?
How China Upstaged U.S. With a ‘Great Wall of Sand’
Japan fighter jet ‘scrambles’ double in response to China
Japan may deploy troops, missiles near disputed islands
Taiwanese Official: China Sending Menacing Message to New Government
China steps up pressure on Taiwan ahead of president's inauguration
Beijing and Taiwan’s New President

 

[Proelite]

ZZZZZZZZ

Wake me up when the nukes start flying. Otherwise these are all WW3 wank.

 

[WaterAstro]

Wow, I glanced through the post, but it's like a giant fanfic...

 

[theusedversion]

ZZZZZZZZ

Wake me up when the nukes start flying. Otherwise these are all WW3 wank.

Great reply. Thanks bro.

 

[Funky Papa]

That is some seriosuly Tom Clancy's Collective trite.

Great reply. Thanks bro.

We generally frown upon shitty responses, but that article deserves nothing else. Not only completely disregards the economic impact of something like a reunification war, but it even lays a detailed timeframe for everything, FFS. It is pure militaristic wankery.

 

[Branduil]

Terrible strategy, the middle of Asia is one of the hardest places to hold in every game. They should take Australia first and build out from there if they want to win.

 

[theusedversion]

That is some seriosuly Tom Clancy's Collective trite.



We generally frown upon shitty responses, but your article deserves nothing else. Not only completely disregards the economic impact of something like a reunification war, but it even lays a detailed timeframe for everything, FFS. It is pure militaristic wankery.

Lock it up then.

 

[pa22word]

Even if the U.S. and Japan step in in this stage, the war can be finished within six months.

 

[enanogrande]

Terrible strategy, the middle of Asia is one of the hardest places to hold in every game. They should take Australia first and build out from there if they want to win.

This man's a military genius. Great Risk assessment.

 

[MGrant]

Yeah, as someone sitting here in Taiwan right now, I don't think the author understands the dynamic here at all.

 

[SolidusDave]

The 1st War: Unification of Taiwan (Year 2020 to 2025)
WWIII (Year 2020)
No more wars (Year 2021)


On the one hand I don't see any motivation to seriously attempt those unifications with military wars. Due to the economic consequences and the possibility of superpowers actually fighting each other.
On the other hand, I guess there's the same lack of motivation to really stick your neck out for any of these regions. Thus when countries like Russia actually conquer their neighbors, nothing really happens. So maybe China might try, too.

 

[Dennis]

Soon I shall reveal my plans for the Greater Danish Empire.

First we take Sweden. That is all I will tell you now.

 

[siddx]

When I was living in Vietnam last year I also kept a close eye on articles about China's behavior in the region and some of it was definitely troubling. The animosity between China and pretty much every other nation near it seems to constantly create tensions big and small. The non stop building of islands in territories other nations claim as their own was especially troubling. Animosity towards Chinese from people in SE Asia is pretty deep rooted and profound.

Now I'm in the middle east and I watch Saudi and Iran closely. Saudi's inevitable economic implosion should worry people far more than it currently does. It has the potential to completely devastate the entire region and have long and far reaching consequences.


edit: The article's silly fan fiction storytelling can and should be ignored for a larger discussion about the hostility between China and it's neighbors and potential conflicts in the future. But I suppose that would require people to pass up the opportunity to sling shit and be snippy.

 

[Cappa]

Lock it up then.

Lol should be deleted... Doesn't even make for a good movie. Those are all ridiculously out there

 

[Parham]

Why would they go after Taiwan before the Spratly Islands? That doesn't really make sense to me, among other things.

 

[Funky Papa]

Lock it up then.

Don't back seat mod a mod.

 

[Thorgal]

"never start a land war in Asia!

 

[Aquavelvaman]

No Thor 2 option?

 

[Polk]

Soon I shall reveal my plans for the Greater Danish Empire.

First we take Sweden. That is all I will tell you now.

Joke is on you.

 

[CoolOff]

Soon I shall reveal my plans for the Greater Danish Empire.

First we take Sweden. That is all I will tell you now.

You can have Skåne without a fight.

 

[Veelk]

What the hell just happened in this thread? I'm so confused

Also, I will not vote in the poll until we have a Thor 2 option.

 

[peaceiscloser]

This article is something else.

3rd War suggests China will successfully attempt to destabilize India's government just... Because?

6th War straight up advocates all-out nuclear war with Russia. But China will win, because they are invincible.

In the meantime in all these 60 years, the US will just not care about anything and get super weak.

 

[zer0das]

I don't know why anyone would want to conquer Mongolia. Trying to take land from Russia would probably be suicidal. It would also almost certainly politically isolate China, even if Russia continues on Putin's path. Of course, they'd also start isolating themselves politically once they started reconquering all those islands.

Honestly, these read like Europa Universalis 4 missions that the AI takes and then immediately collapses upon trying to fulfill the mission. I suppose there would be a moderate prestige increase for taking back the islands, but good lord the potential negatives are massive.

 

[Walshicus]

Hmm, I can definitely see taking the Amur region as being an objective for China. That said, can't really see how they'd do it.

 

[Exterminieren]

A thread backfire so bad that the OP got banned within a page. What a time.

 

[BocoDragon]

Putting dates on it and assuming it'd be direct military annexation is obviously fan fic.

But the traditional mindset of China would mean that many there assume these territories are inevitably going to rejoin the middle kingdom. They have the mindset that every territory that was once a part of China rightfully belongs to China. If you take the classical Chinese view of time as cyclical, that means it's only a matter of time before China is restored to its greatest peak....

So that they will wage these wars is questionable, and it just might be the case that a modern economic power would never dare. But that certain people within China would absolutely want to and assume that those territories are coming home some day is assured.

 

[clay_ghost]

Why would USA not do much in all the scenarios?

 

[G-Fex]

Get me Jack Ryan!

 

[TheSeks]

Get me Jack Ryan!

Get me Jack Ryan's computer nerd!

(Netforce is the only right answer)

 

[Vagabundo]

Ouch.

On topic, China is a big worry. With all the shit they are pulling in the South China Seas at the moment. I think its 50/50 for me if they will push for a military solution to Taiwan at some point. I think things might just hobble along for another 50 years and maybe become moot with democratic reforms in China.

 

[El Topo]

.

The whole article is just fanfiction weird. When was the last time the US finished a war in six months? Even brief military operations last at least that long.

 

[Erevador]

This is as good a place as any to say Alec Baldwin was by far the best Jack Ryan on film. Love Harrison, but he was wrong for the part. Don't get me started on Affleck and Pine.

 

[cameron]

lol, I adore title changes.

 

[JaseC]

Don't back seat mod a mod.

I think the intent of the post was not to issue a command but rather admit that a mistake was made and that he's okay with the thread being locked. People quite often reply with "Lock it up" or a variation thereof when they're informed that they've posted a dupe thread, for instance.

 

[G-Fex]

why are TC novels named after animals?

 

[Imperfected]

What is even the point of conquering a densely-populated, mostly urban region?

The best case scenario is that they contribute meaningfully to your economy through labor, and it's pretty much a given that their productivity is going to be crushed under the weight of an occupation, even before you start talking about the actual cost of military invasion and the likely resulting trade breakdowns and sanctions.

Like, resource wars I can sort of get (even if they never seem to work out), but "Let's just go conquer a city" really is bizarre, last-century thinking.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Hmm, I can definitely see taking the Amur region as being an objective for China. That said, can't really see how they'd do it.

Why? What's up there? I honestly don't know. But looking at a map, I think Russia would not let Vladivostock go without going all-out. Doesn't seem like a smart move.

 

[Cappa]

I think the intent of the post was not to issue a command but rather admit that a mistake was made and that he's okay with the thread being locked. People quite often reply with "Lock it up" or a variation thereof when they're informed that they've posted a dupe thread, for instance.

Lol really how did you come to that conclusion ? Definitely Sounded more like he was upset that no one took his thread seriously.

 

[TheWraith]

I don't buy into the Taiwan part. I think they will just try to integrate themselves closer to Taiwan and develop close ties until the two are practically inseparable from one another. They will take the slow and steady route, in my opinion.

Well the opposite of that is happening, as Taiwan is very wary as they look onto what Beijing is doing with Hong Kong at the moment. The fact that Taiwanese have just voted overhelmingly for a government that doesn't believe in trade deals with China shows what kind of course they will take in the coming years.

 

[Bubba_Sparks]

I think there was a Rand report recently outlining the various difficulties over time the US would have intervining against China. One of its core assumptions would be that even in the mid 2020's the US would still be able to shut down most Chinese air bases, though it would be much more difficult than it is today. China would drastically have to increase it's strategic lift capabilities in order to invade Taiwan. Doing so today would be basically impossible if the US intervined.

 

[JaseC]

Lol really how did you come to that conclusion ? Definitely Sounded more like he was upset that no one took his thread seriously.

Well, sure, I didn't say he wasn't miffed. But considering the phrase he chose is one that people use rather regularly, I think he would have been more blunt if the intended interpretation was "Well, do your damn job, then."

 

[WaterAstro]

Does China even have modern tech? The last time I heard of any news, they had some copycat F-16 to show, and those planes are old as fuck.

China doesn't know how to invent anything, and US military surely isn't going to share military secrets.

 

[shintoki]

No Thor 2 option?

I demand this option!

 

[Nivash]

So let me get this straight: the plan, according to the article, is near-perpetual war involving all of the world's greater and superpowers - with nukes in play - for 40 straight years. No setbacks, no downsides, just glorious conquest.

Looks fantastic. I approve of this plan.

Soon I shall reveal my plans for the Greater Danish Empire.

First we take Sweden. That is all I will tell you now.

Horrible idea. I disapprove of this plan. Don't make us turn you into a radioactive wasteland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlTukY9fV9Y

 

[Funky Papa]

Does China even have modern tech? The last time I heard of any news, they had some copycat F-16 to show, and those planes are old as fuck.

China doesn't know how to invent anything, and US military surely isn't going to share military secrets.

Per wikipedia:

For the past 10 to 20 years, the PLA has acquired some advanced weapons systems from Russia, including Sovremenny class destroyers, Sukhoi Su-27 and Sukhoi Su-30 aircraft, and Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines. It has also completed several new destroyers and frigates including 2 AAW Type 052C class guided missile destroyers. In addition, the PLAAF has designed its very own Chengdu J-10 fighter aircraft. The PLA launched the new Jin class nuclear submarines on 3 December 2004 capable of launching nuclear warheads that could strike targets across the Pacific Ocean.

In 2015, the PLA formed new units including the PLA Army’s leading organ, the PLA Rocket Force and the PLA Strategic Support Force.[10]

China is also pushing for advanced indigenous systems such as "carrier killer" cruise missiles as part of its modernisation programme. While still ways from being a high tech army (yet), they very far from South Sudan.

 

[GoutPatrol]

Yeah, as someone sitting here in Taiwan right now, I don't think the author understands the dynamic here at all.

Yeah. Everyone I know hates the shit outta China. They never want to see unification.

 

[Atraveller]

Yeah. Everyone I know hates the shit outta China. They never want to see unification.

Except for some rich few who might or might have multiple nationalities, that and KMT.

 

[Jackpot]

Does China even have modern tech? The last time I heard of any news, they had some copycat F-16 to show, and those planes are old as fuck.

China doesn't know how to invent anything, and US military surely isn't going to share military secrets.

Yes. Your news is rather outdated. Their mil-industry infrastructure is actually quite robust. And why share what they've already obtained through cyberattacks?