Support NeoGAF

[Maintenance]

So much for the gaf analysts saying the game should be delayed/canceled/removed from Steam/PC market.

 

[Steel]

I have never paid $40 for a digital game, so it's not priced correctly for me.
I don't care if a game is indie, made on a shoestring budget or cost $100 million to develop. For $40 I want a physical release that comes with actual property rights.

(NB, I have no problem spending much more on a physical release if a game is good.
I recently spent more than $150 on a physical, limited edition copy of DARIUSBURST for PS Vita.)

Good for you. I mean, wanting indie developers to get 1/2 the cut of the cash they get for digital releases on Physical plus the added cost of used game sales is just great.

Personally I would have bought it full price had I not had a few other games I'm in the middle of playing through at the moment. I mean, it'd be awkward for me to buy The Witness when I'm playing through The Talos Principle right now.

So much for the gaf analysts saying the game should be delayed/canceled/removed from Steam/PC market.

The amount of confirmation bias in that thread was amazing.

 

[eot]

Not to defend but there have been studies showing that 1 download = 1 lost sale is a logical fallacy. Usually the actual percentage is in the 10-20% range for lost sales. Many other industries had admitted to grossly overstating the impact of piracy and have commissioned and then rejected studies that disprove the 1=1 destination. I can't find that article on Arstechnica (render reading it around 2005), but here is another article about a study performed by the Institute for Policy Innovation.

Note I'm not condoning piracy. I am just pointing out that research has found that not every illegal download represents a lost sale.

If it were a logical fallacy they wouldn't need to do studies to reach that conclusion.

 

[Jedi2016]

Yeah, the price was right. I'm not even that far along (keep getting stuck, and then later unstuck), and I think I've already gotten $40 worth of enjoyment out of it.

 

[Joejoe123]

You're analyzing in the wrong direction. Start with the quantity of pirated downloads, some average cost number, and apply your 10%. Would be incredibly difficult to analyze because buying habits are so complex, especially in the PC space.

According to many developers their games are pirated many times over the number they sell, so if more software is being pirated than purchased it's easy enough to just look at the total current revenue of the industry as a baseline.

Seriously though, it's silly to talk about lost sales when what matters is lost revenue. Software companies know their products are being pirated upwards of 90% of the time in many foreign markets where people simply can't afford a legitimate version, but they can't lower the price enough in those markets to capture those lost sales without sacrificing revenue in more affluent markets where consumers would import/download the cheaper foreign version.

So the question is, how much revenue is lost due to piracy? Is the industry going to gain billions of dollars of new revenue if piracy ends?

 

[Percy]

But but I thought this was a flop because overpriced or whatever the fuck.

Good for Blow on making good on the game though.

 

[DavidDesu]

I'm enjoying it immensely. Total change of pace. Sat staring at my tv for 15 minutes last night trying to figure something out. Also graphically to me this is "AAA" quality. Very clean, solid framerate, great art and design, bold and colourful and unique. What's not to like? The bounce lighting is incredible, looks photo-real at times, like the part with

Spoiler

the puzzles requiring catching the glint of the sun off the panels, there's a hole down into a chamber

, the lighting is so subtle and believable, LOVE IT.

REALLY want to be able to experience this world with PSVR and hope they try to make it happen.

 

[MadmanUK]

Wasn't it bootyblasted?

Ask Kanye

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

Launch week revenue>first year revenue a foregone conclusion? Not really.

Never said anything about launch week>>launch year.

Just from the ofset it was going to be a bigger launch in terms of revenue. It would of been a disaster if it wasnt, especially as the PS4 userbase alone is around the same size as the 360 userbase at the time if not more, with alot more active digital buyers.

 

[igordennis]

So the question is, how much revenue is lost due to piracy? Is the industry going to gain billions of dollars of new revenue if piracy ends?

These questions are the definition of useless. We won't ever know the answer

 

[eshwaaz]

Great news. Hope it's a huge success for Blow and his team. Fantastic game. I enjoy action games as much as anyone, but it's so refreshing to play something focused entirely on exploration, puzzle solving and environment. I just love it.

 

[JaseC]

Do we know the budget for the game? Was that ever released?

Blow mentioned $8m during the pre-release stream, IIRC.

 

[Ivan Amiibo]

Do we know the budget for the game? Was that ever released?

all we know is basically all of j.blow's money

edit: wow, the piracy comments were so blown out of proportion. why so defensive

 

[chaislip3]

Congrats to Blow and the rest of that team. I haven't played it yet, but Braid was great.

 

[TheSeks]

Braids price < Witness price in the same year, though.

So obviously revenue is gonna be slightly higher from a $40 purchase (minus Steam/PSN's cut) over Braid's... $20(?) $15(?) profit.

 

[Rising_Hei]

Not a good comparision since the indie / digital market was barebones when Braid released

 

[Joejoe123]

These questions are the definition of useless. We won't ever know the answer

Then we should fight against piracy and companies should spend millions implementing anti-piracy measures which in many cases harm their paying customers just because? If we can't quantify a problem even exists how can we fix it?

 

[Cipherr]

Congrats to Blow and the rest of that team. I haven't played it yet, but Braid was great.

Indeed, glad to see him finding success. Talented.

Why is this one any different from any other game?

You misunderstood. Game pirates can go f themselves; no matter the game. And reminding them of that standing offer won't ever get old.

 

[hydruxo]

Really glad to hear it's selling well. It's an absolute joy of a game, even when I'm cursing Blow out while trying to solve a puzzle for 30 min haha.

 

[The Technomancer]

Do we know the budget for the game? Was that ever released?

In the neighborhood of $5.5 million I believe. Maybe 6?

 

[xrnzaaas]

I have to say I'm surprised how well the game is doing considering it's a new IP and not something like Portal 3. The PS4 version was already rated by >1000 people and usually only a small number of gamers take their time to do that. I also saw The Witness being played by a lot of the people from my friends list, even the ones that don't play on PS4 too often. I'll wait a few months myself.. not because of the price, but more because of my increasing backlog.

 

[GhaleonEB]

So we are going to ignore that the Witness launched on 2 platforms over Braids 1?

Not to mention the market for indies have changed significantly, for better and worse.

Im sure Blow is happy, which is the main thing but this whole "the price was right >>> look at these sales" looks incredibly reductive.

That said, ive noticed that becoming a trend in any thread regarding this game...

If the game were priced in such a way that the market would not bear it, then it would not sell well regardless of what platforms it was on.

Could have sworn people said he priced himself out of the market. /smug

What NDA though? Isn't this self published?

I'm courious about this myself. I'm guessing Sony doesn't want him saying "we sold X copies on PSN", but I don't see how that would stop him from saying "we sold X copies total, across Steam, Humble and PSN". But maybe it does?

These questions are the definition of useless. We won't ever know the answer

This is true. On this entire topic, I think folks are ignoring how awful seeing The Witness be pirated so much must have felt for Blow. He poured seven years of his life and all of his Braid fortune into it, and in days it's sitting atop the charts of people stealing it. That's gotta feel pretty frustrating, regardless of how it's actually selling.

 

[The Real Abed]

My thoughts exactly. We could definitely use more original games and less shooters.

.

 

[Saucycarpdog]

The Witness should have been delayed on PC, the evidence is overwhelming!

 

[Already Torn]

Think of how much more it would be selling if it weren't for the millions of theiving pirates.

 

[Instro]

Looks like for many Indies releasing at higher prices is working out well.

 

[chubigans]

Looks like for many Indies releasing at higher prices is working out well.

I *definitely* wouldn't go that far. It's still hard to break that $15 ceiling for a lot of devs.

 

[reKon]

As long as the game is good and lengthy, there's no reason to be bitching about the if any indie game.

 

[PFD]

That's a relief. The game deserves to do well

 

[prudislav]

Think of how much more it would be selling if it weren't for the millions of theiving pirates.

What matters ia the revenue not number od sales ,

+- the same (some papers suggests +10%), most of pirates are kids or from 3rd world countries anyway

 

[Zornack]

I'm glad it's doing well, it's a fantastic game.

 

[Diprosalic]

if you like him or not but we need more people like him in this industry. very happy, well done.

 

[Movalpolos]

Just a testament to the strength of the game.
Selling so well even on a platform where piracy is rampant. Well deserved.

 

[Concept17]

This game seems to be having great word of mouth, which I think is really helping.

 

[traveler]

Deserves it all.

 

[93xfan]

Like Blow's? That guy seems really upset about the piracy despite this.

Yeah. People stole from him and his company. Movie directors and other artists get angry about this sort of thing as well.

 

[Mindlog]

My thoughts exactly. We could definitely use more original games and less shooters.

And I like shooters!
The game was totally worth it, but when a puzzle makes me laugh I feel like a game has earned its pay and is punching way above its weight class.

 

[Spring-Loaded]

.

so good


Seems like people's perceptions of game worth are starting to broaden.

 

[Dragon Puncher]

I wasn't a big fan of Braid and The Witness doesn't look like it's for me, but I really respect Jonathan Blow for the insane amount of work, thought and effort he puts into his games. Good on him, it seems like it deserves every sale.

 

[Mechanized]

Not for me it isn't.

 

[Wowfunhappy]

You can't really tell how many of those would have been sales one way or the other.

Perhaps, but to quote Blow himself: at the piracy rates The Witness is currently seeing, if even 10% of pirates could be converted to customers, the game's revenue would double.

 

[Night Angel]

You can't really tell how many of those would have been sales one way or the other.

But if the answer isn't 0, it's still a problem.

I don't understand how people can mock JB for being upset that people are stealing something he worked so hard on. Piracy isn't a victimless crime, regardless of whether any individual person planned to purchase the item or not.

 

[BarringGaffner]

does selling faster than Braid make it a success? Braid didn't have to make $8 million to break even.

I really hope this game does more than break even.

 

[Tagyhag]

Think of how much more it would be selling if it weren't for the millions of theiving pirates.

It'd probably be the best selling game of all time.

GAF amrchair analysts don't have to eat crow confirmed!

 

[Durante]

I wasn't a big fan of Braid and The Witness doesn't look like it's for me, but I really respect Jonathan Blow for the insane amount of work, thought and effort he puts into his games. Good on him, it seems like it deserves every sale.

IMHO, The WItness is a much more interesting game than Braid. I'll see about the whole "message" and artsyness of it when I complete it, but when you completely ignore that it's still a masterful puzzle game.

Perhaps, but to quote Blow himself: at the piracy rates The Witness is currently seeing, if even 10% of pirates could be converted to customers, the game's revenue would double.

The thing is, that wouldn't happen. None of the Denuvo-protected piracy-proof games so far had any appreciable uptick in sales compared to franchise history or expectations. Sure, it could just be a coincidence that all of these were worse in some way that made up for that huge surge of would-be pirates buying them in droves, but that idea seems somewhat hard for me to take seriously.

 

[MartyStu]

I wonder how often this happens. Like genuinely curious

Younger me used to pirate quite a bit.

I denounce and reject the sort of thinking that allowed me to do that in my younger years though.

As an adult, I frequently buy those same games.

Just a testament to the strength of the game.
Selling so well even on a platform where piracy is rampant. Well deserved.

Especially since steam, good PC games pretty much always sell well.

 

[Wowfunhappy]

The thing is, that wouldn't happen. None of the Denuvo-protected piracy-proof games so far had any appreciable uptick in sales compared to franchise history or expectations. Sure, it could just be a coincidence that all of these were worse in some way that made up for that huge surge of would-be pirates buying them in droves, but that idea seems somewhat hard for me to take seriously.

I'd argue that we don't have very accurate sales figures.

I think it's pretty safe to say that Denuvo doesn't increase sales by 30%. If it did, we would know. But if it even increases sales by 10%, that could still equal millions of dollars in revenue for a AAA game.

It admittedly matters less for indie games, though.

 

[Gaz_RB]

didnt he just say piracy was ruining his sales

I think Jon Blow isn't a very confident person. He strikes me as someone who can be very negative about his future.

.

What a great response, haha.

 

[backbreaker65]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=193704974&postcount=2065

This reminds me of a fashion designer, whose name escapes me at the moment. When the FBI was saying because of knock offs, the fashion industry is losing tons of money. Well that fashion designer told the FBI cut the shit, simply because the people buying knock offs can't afford the real item so there is no money loss, so your number is meaningless. The FBI had no reply.

 

[El_Cinefilo]

Glad it's doing well, price is higher than I'm willing to pay for it at the moment. People need to realise that value is subjective based on a whole load of things.