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Jason Schreier's five big predictions for 2024

Fake

Member
But Digital vs Physical proves both can co-exist. Neither isn't going anywhere.

My problem is not the prove. We have an enormous amount of proves for Physical and Singleplayer games to remain alive, besides people telling otherwise. The problem is people trying to avoid those facts.

GaaS are not here to stay. They can live, but far away from singleplayer companies at possible.
 
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HeisenbergFX4

Gold Member
Jimbo would run things into the ground when Playstation is crushing the competition and almost beat PS4 sales (same timewindow) despite a pandemic and shortages?
I don't care about console sales, I care about big boy AAA single player games Sony are known for and as of late and the very immediate future those are bleak and likely because of the turn towards GAAS

So yeah
 

Godot25

Banned
Jimbo would run things into the ground when Playstation is crushing the competition and almost beat PS4 sales (same timewindow) despite a pandemic and shortages?
I credit initial PS5 success to the strong foundation by Tretton/Layden and not thanks to Ryan. Basically all projects that have released from first party up until Spiderman 2 were greenlit by "old guard"

Ryan basically just hadn't do anything stupid (which he didn't do) and PS5 would sell as good as PS4 based on brand regonition alone.

Ryan's initiatives are stuff like PS Plus revamp, PC expansion and live service push. Jury is still out on this stuff.
 
These are the biggest no brainer predictions ever. They are also quite vague. Pretty easy for him to go 5/5 here. I think the only one that is decently specific is the Saudi Arabia one, but I'm pretty sure that was who was looking to inject money into Embracaer before that deal fell apart, so this may be based on some hearsay involved with that. The union one is interesting, as I could see it happening more in the US, but I also expect more contraction and layoffs this year, so those two are sort of at odds with one another. Unions have their biggest chances when the industry is roaring hot.
 

AlphaDump

Gold Member
Games as a service will face a reckoning
Sony’s PlayStation, which inexplicably said in 2022 that it planned to release ten live-service games in the next few years, will be the biggest victim of this collapse. It has already canceled several of its service games, and it’s reasonable to expect that more will follow.

I get we all want it to, but is there any indication of a decline in GAAS? GAAS is a broad term and i think isnt going anywhere. The real reckoning is on single player games hence the consolidation talking point... which has already been going on for a few years now.
 
I used to think that, until those games start to harm single player companies.

Is like Digital vs Physical. Some folks trick you into this 'they can live together', but some companies tried so hard to destroy physical in favor of DRM/Always Online digital media.
My problem is not the prove. We have an enormous amount of proves for Physical games to remain alive, besides people telling otherwise. The problem is people trying to avoid those facts.
Regarding physical media, I feel like there's a lot of information that we don't have as consumers that makes it easy for us to sling mud to the other side and make claims.

We don't know the full reason why stores like Best Buy, Walmart, and Target are slowly shrinking their blu-ray sections. I'm sure one way of thinking could lead towards a 'media push' of some kind, but I feel like people aren't considering a bunch of factors here, one example being a very large one: The data of generations post-millenial. These outlets would need to release their statistics of how many customers are legitimately buying physical media from their stores, and what their age range happens to be.

Is it simply the case of more people ordering from online sellers such as Amazon? Is it because Nintendo is the main reason for that high percentage in physical sales? Why has Gamestop been hovering above a grave since pre-pandemic? Will GameFly still exist in 10 years(They already had one buyout to save them)?

I guess it's hard for me to think that this is all a big push and squeeze from large companies when it feels more like people from those big companies trying to take initiative to get ahead of a future trend so that they aren't left behind and ending up like Blockbuster because some Gaffers want them to stick to a status quo.

At least with GAAS, we have both positive and negative proof of GAAS killing studios and bleeding money, and also it doing the opposite. We can kind of make out the ratio of successes to failures at this point and that means so can the suits. Sony's plan to spend a truckload of money on almost 10 of them would have been unreasonable if they all flopped.
 

Baki

Member
Unionized games development just means Korea, China, Japan, and Eastern Europe will continue to make games that massively outshine the narrative-laden slop pushed by AAA devs.
Unionization will mean jobs that should be outsourced (QA) will be kept in house and lower productivity, which will balloon budgets and lead to more studio closures.

Tbh, alarm bells should already be ringing when games like SM2, which had many assets and design systems already created, ended up costing 3x more to develop than the original. Something deeply wrong with the management of that project.
 
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Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
Tbh, alarm bells should already be ringing when games like SM2, which had many assets and design systems already created, ended up costing 3x more to develop than the original. Something deeply wrong with the management of that project.

Are we even sure that's true or are those numbers debated?

Edit: A quick Google search says Horizon Zero Dawn cost 50 million and Horizon Forbidden West cost 200 million. That's 4x the budget with largely the same assets.
 
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Edmund

Member
No idea honestly I just always reference the drink Ybarra and Spencer shared when they heard Jimbo took over PS saying he would run it into the ground

Seems Jimmie jumping out when he knew all these projects were getting cancelled that he pushed for

Just personal musings

It's really ironic how Ybarra and Spencer clinked glasses and celebrating in advance thinking that Jim Ryan will run PlayStation into the ground, yet they are the ones running the Xbox brand into the ground.

As always. The arrogance of the heads at Microsoft never fail to disgust me. It's even worse that Phil always tries to come across as a nice guy.
 
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ProtoByte

Member
I see Schreier has caught the optimism flu on the market as it pertains to interest rates. The way these analyst clowns keep trying wish interest rate cuts into reality indicates that the coming contract renewals across all the different parts of the economy has them shifting bricks.

Similarly for unions: I thought that shit was unrealistic before the Insomniac leak. Now? Even by Schreier's own words, that ain't gonna work on a large scale. Why do these devs even want unions? It's not like they aren't getting paid enough. It's not they're crunching like they used to. Are they really that desperate for identity as to larp as Marx's proletariat?
 

Cyberpunkd

Member
Many Western employees have strong feelings about Saudi Arabia’s human rights record.
What is this nu-speak? Here, let me rewrite that in normal English:

“Many people that grew up in a democracy and were taught respect for their fellow citizens regardless of their religion, sex or sexual orientation are not happy to potentially work in a company owned by a theocratic, barbaric regime pushing their offshot of Islam and treating half of their population as second-class citizens”
 

ByWatterson

Member
Sarcastic Bill Burr GIF by Desus & Mero
 

Killjoy-NL

Member
I don't care about console sales, I care about big boy AAA single player games Sony are known for and as of late and the very immediate future those are bleak and likely because of the turn towards GAAS

So yeah
Can be, but without those sales there isn't an installbase to generate enough revenue to even make the games you want.

And those big boy AAA sp games are few in between because of development time and cost. But you know that. Just like you know that Sony needs more revenue.
 
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Schreier also maintained that the Final Fantasy Tactics remaster/remake is coming.

Dude is less reliable than 4chan. He can eat shit.

Leaks as a concept aren't reliable, and the source of the leak only seen as 'reliable' when someone is proven right, but people have to remember it for them to be looked at as 'reliable'. It's why the smarter leakers will wait for the right time to reveal certain info so that they can be championed for it. Otherwise, people forget.

For example, 4chan was recently right about the giant Sega leak from over a year ago. JSR, 2 Sonic games, a new Yakuza, Shinobi, Crazy Taxi, etc. were all revealed and/or released recently, yet 4chan is constantly still seen as less reliable of a source. Why?

1) Because there's simply too much anonymity and too many cases of fake leaks due to that anonymity. However, when they get a leak right, it's usually something huge.
2) Because people simply forget. So many here already forgot that 4chan leaked the Sega info.

Jason Schreier could easily be proven right in 3-5 years, but will anyone here honestly remember it was him bringing up a FF Tactics rumor 3-5 years ago? 🤷‍♂️
 

Hudo

Member
Leaks as a concept aren't reliable, and the source of the leak only seen as 'reliable' when someone is proven right, but people have to remember it for them to be looked at as 'reliable'. It's why the smarter leakers will wait for the right time to reveal certain info so that they can be championed for it. Otherwise, people forget.

For example, 4chan was recently right about the giant Sega leak from over a year ago. JSR, 2 Sonic games, a new Yakuza, Shinobi, Crazy Taxi, etc. were all revealed and/or released recently, yet 4chan is constantly still seen as less reliable of a source. Why?

1) Because there's simply too much anonymity and too many cases of fake leaks due to that anonymity. However, when they get a leak right, it's usually something huge.
2) Because people simply forget. So many here already forgot that 4chan leaked the Sega info.

Jason Schreier could easily be proven right in 3-5 years, but will anyone here honestly remember it was him bringing up a FF Tactics rumor 3-5 years ago? 🤷‍♂️
Schreier got also extremly salty about him not "leading" the whole Blizzard sexual misconduct story. Someone else made it a story and Schreier acted like a 5 year old whose ice cream got stolen. Yet, he never fails to gaslight people into thinking that he "cares" about the people working in the industry.

Dude can eat shit. And he was also wrong on multiple occasions, not only right. So yeah, he's not the most reliable and certainly not the most trustworthy, since his agenda is himself.

Also: The Tactics rumor that he confirmed was from January/Feburary 2023.
 
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I’m just saying…

Schreier got also extremly salty about him not "leading" the whole Blizzard sexual misconduct story. Someone else made it a story and Schreier acted like a 5 year old whose ice cream got stolen. Yet, he never fails to gaslight people into thinking that he "cares" about the people working in the industry.
This is a valid criticism to have of the guy…
And he was also wrong on multiple occasions, not only right. So yeah, he's not the most reliable and certainly not the most trustworthy, since his agenda is himself.

Also: The Tactics rumor that he confirmed was from January/Feburary 2023.
…And this not so much. There are no leakers active today with a 100% perfect leak ratio, let alone a ratio above 60% IMO. There’s no reason for me to expect Schreier to have a better leaking average than the other guys, so there’s no reason for me to find him more or less trustworthy than the rest of them. He’s just another small time leaker who’s actual bread and butter content lie within digging up worker and employment issues.

That rumor could have easily come from a disgruntled SE America office employee who heard someone mention something at lunch once 🤷‍♂️
 

kyussman

Member
Please let them go down the Union route......then just like the movies they can get pissy,strike......and half of them will loose their jobs,lol.
 

Hudo

Member
I’m just saying…


This is a valid criticism to have of the guy…

…And this not so much. There are no leakers active today with a 100% perfect leak ratio, let alone a ratio above 60% IMO. There’s no reason for me to expect Schreier to have a better leaking average than the other guys, so there’s no reason for me to find him more or less trustworthy than the rest of them. He’s just another small time leaker who’s actual bread and butter content lie within digging up worker and employment issues.

That rumor could have easily come from a disgruntled SE America office employee who heard someone mention something at lunch once 🤷‍♂️
Fair. I still take some random on 4chan over Schreier, who has an agenda and is not even shy about it.

I never once questioned that leakers are never 100% correct, which is why I never believe any "insider". Especially if they are on Twitter, since then you can be sure that they're almost always doing the "leaking" to promote themselves. Like NateTheHate et al.
 

Felessan

Member
Western GaaS might have a setback, together with unionization and diversity policies it will give a hard blow to gamedev.
Asia - zero chances. GaaS will continue to expand and encroach literally everything there.
 

Zones

Member
Games as a service will face a reckoning
Sony’s PlayStation, which inexplicably said in 2022 that it planned to release ten live-service games in the next few years, will be the biggest victim of this collapse. It has already canceled several of its service games, and it’s reasonable to expect that more will follow.
This is Jason right after witnessing Helldivers 2’s numbers…

old-man-drinking-milk-i53wofr6bkemu21b.gif
 

ShaiKhulud1989

Gold Member
Sony’s PlayStation, which inexplicably said in 2022 that it planned to release ten live-service games in the next few years, will be the biggest victim of this collapse. It has already canceled several of its service games, and it’s reasonable to expect that more will follow.
So shrewd, Jason. Especially in context of Helldivers 2 release.

Anyway, it reads like pure horoscope. Especially when he ignores the green elephant in the room.
 
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