China is the key player in such a move, and the people in china have got shit to say against it. The party rules supreme, and a show of force would be enough to secure the islands. Not a shooting war, and certainly not a cease in trading. But that doesn't mean that china is willing to go a bit further than anyone else since it's leadership is absconded in it's tower of power with no real connection to the people as far as accountability goes.
A tell tale sign of an escalation is the surrounding environment: Vietnam is getting more frictional with China, and Australia has quietly increased it's military for the past few years since their military analysts point strongly towards Chinese power projection over the region.
Of course, none of us can do shit about it. A start, though, would be not to pretend that a conflict will never happen.