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[Opiate]

The development should go down from last gen though.

No, it probably won't. There are always increases in efficiency, and these increases are in efficiency never seem to compensate for the increases in complexity. Maybe this time will be different, but people always hope it will be different, and so far it never is.

 

[snarge]

I don't see consoles going anywhere. Those sales look decent enough for sustainability. It might not be PS2 / NDS numbers for a while, but the PS3 last gen taught us that each gen is a marathon, not a sprint. Things are just getting started.

If you're looking elsewhere, like not-console places I guess you'd call them, the industry as a whole is kind of booming. Mobile is till going strong, though most people around here don't like it...the rest of the world is buying in relentlessly. Still though, getting away from the casual crowd of smartphones, games like DayZ and Rust are selling gangbusters during their alpha. That's right: hardcore, unapproachable games with bugs and unrefined gameplay are breaking the million sales mark before they launch. Not with a $0.99 pricetag either.

I think the industry is taking a hit in the "BBB" market for consoles, but that's really been going on for at least half a console generation, and no one honestly seems to miss them.

 

[Graphics Horse]

The development should go down from last gen though.

Modern games spend a lot more time and money on making art than they do on low level code. Might take a bit less time to get your first game running but it doesn't mean much beyond that.

 

[Final Boss]

Harsh reality, console gaming can't sustain having two competing consoles (ps4/Xbone)


It's not good for consumers, publishers and the industry at this point

 

[Neuromancer]

I still don't understand the doom and gloom. The last console cycle was extremely successful for all three major systems, so anyone who really wanted a Wii, an Xbox 360 or a PS3 most likely has one by now. We're in a post holiday season so no more gifts, there have been no price drops on the older systems and the new systems are competing with the old ones.

The PS4 is doing great considering it launched 3 months ago and is still hard to find, here in the US. The WiiU and the Xbox One, less so, but both of those have extraordinary marketing challenges (to put it nicely) due to price, consumer confusion/indifference and in the case of the Xbox One some awful PR for the last year or so. I would not be unhappy with a PS2-style domination again, I think it worked out well for us gamers.

And in a worse case scenario, if AAA games drop off, I'm ok with Indies and mid-budget downloadable games like Far Cry 3: Blood Dragon and Call of Juarez: Gunslinger picking up the slack.

 

[Buddha Beam]

You touched on it in the OP but I really think VR will shake up the industry. It may take a few years though.

VR won't shake up the industry at all, IMO. All the things that have shaken up the industry have more or less been social in nature in one way or another - be it local multiplayer, social networking features, etc. VR is the antithesis of social.
It'll possibly hit big with the hardcore crowd, but it'll likely languish in obscurity much in the way PC gaming did/continues to do.

I also have to wonder what VR gaming is going to do for development costs. Right now people seem to mainly be porting their first person games, but a few years down the road people are doing to start figuring out all the cool things you can really do with VR, I have to imagine that the cost of development is doing to further go up... thereby adding more to the problems outlined in this thread.

 

[Finalizer]

In regards to the collapse of previous-gen consoles, it's pretty alarming, but at the same time, not terribly surprising when you consider the pent-up demand for next-gen hardware combined with the ridiculous price points given their current age. I mentioned this in the other thread, but it's worth repeating - within the first year of the 360's life, you could get a PS2 for $130, and that had been out for less time compared to the PS360 of today. Plenty of factors working against them, but even so, it's admittedly totally surprising how they've just totally fallen off a cliff at this point.

As for the current-gen, it's hard to say what the situation will ultimately be, but naturally, unless a rabbit gets pulled out of one of the manufacturers' asses (or a new console maker enters the fray to fantastic effect - looking at the rumors of Amazon's console here), the next gen is obviously never going to amount to PS3+360+Wii, especially with how Nintendo have plainly bungled the Wii's successor and MS has left a lot to be desired. Really, I feel like it's more of an issue with two out of three of the hardware guys dropping the ball than anything representing an actual market crash. In that regard, I'd wait to see how the PS4 fares throughout the coming months before jumping to any conclusions, and to see if MS possibly gets their act together and starts to reverse the Xbone's prospects.

Finally, peering at the AAA publisher market: I'm not sure why folks look at the collapse of that segment as signaling the death of gaming or what-have-you. Between indies, kickstarters, F2P, whatever, there's so many alternative solutions to that old model nowadays that it just seems... Almost quaint, to insist that they're somehow the sole deciders of the health and direction of the industry. Ultimately, if that segment somehow implodes in on itself due to astronomical budgets or whatever, I'd be much more inclined to call it a transformation than a death, and one I'm frankly not opposed to. That said, I don't see the big boys just up and dying like that - I think the previous gen served as the wake up call to the difficulties of AAA development on HD systems, so the ones that survived that maul will be better prepared to weather whatever comes ahead in their own ways.

 

[FiggyCal]

I'll repost the comment I made in the last NPD thread because it fits more here.

People should not compare these numbers with 2007 for a few reasons...

a) January 2007 consisted in 5 weeks, January 2014 consisted in 4 weeks
b) PS2 was its 7th January in USA, X360 is its 9th January and for Wii and PS3 its 8th
c) 7th gen sales were a lot larger than 6th gen
d) PS4 sold less than Wii in 2007 because it already sold A LOT MORE in November and December, there is just not enough stock to sell in January.
e) Xbox One sold less than X360 in 2006 for the same reason a "d" -- The Xbox One sold more than the original or 360 for the same time period.
f) Xbox 360 and Wii sold better than what Xbox and Gamecube sold at the launch of the next gen.

Spoiler

-- I stole this comment from --colafitte

I think people are way overreacting. Like I said a lot in the last thread-- the console market did not suddenly disappear from the record breaking launch of GTA5 in September to January.

It's also worth noting that Jan 2007 was 360's 3rd year-- so it is unfair to compare it to Xbox One's second. I'm not even saying that Xbox One would look better, but that the comparison might be flawed.

Sales of this gen will no doubt be less than the last, but I blame that more on the success of the Wii than anything else.

 

[orioto]

Did you even read the OP? Last gen vs current gen comparison is there.

Gen over Gen
Console 2014 2007 % Change
360 294
PS2 299
WII 436
PS3 244
TOTAL 563 1,273 -55.77%

I'm sorry i don't really get those numbers.. How is that relevant of anything ? I must be dumb..

 

[outunderthestars]

Look at Tomb Raider. It needed 5 million copies sold to break even ie. cover the costs of developing it. The game was well recieved, it was released on everything not made by Nintendo, and it was still a financial failure. Square Enix are doubling down - hoping a follow up will have better success. But it will cost more to develop for PS4 / one, and they will have a smaller install base when it launches. What makes you think it is still a viable path?

Are we really using Square-Enix as an example of efficient project management?

 

[kurbaan]

Aside from the most hardcore who in the general public still cares about gaming?.

Why would anyone pay $300-500 for this dedicated system when they already have a bunch of things that play Netflix just as good and tablets that play $1 games that already pass the time.

sure there are still the sports and cod crowds but they ain't upgrading until mass price drops and even then they buy at most 2-3 games a year.

some people here believe steam and PC is somehow the future and picking up the slack but I'd say its probably the opposite. The stuff popular on PC is mostly FTP stuff like Dota, LOL. this indie explosion on PC is because those games have no value just like mobile games. They are essentially given away on steam for peanuts otherwise no one would buy them. and none of these games really provide the experience a AAA console game currently gives.

PC cannot support the console games by itself. How much do most multiplat games sell on PC? 90% its a small fraction compared to ps3/360.

I in the next year or two the industry will have to consolidate. I really believe that for playstation and Nintendo to survive they need to merge.

 

[moltonasty]

PS3/360 completely collapsed, both need a price cut asap.

Yes seriously. How the fuck are these consoles still priced at basically $200!? 360 is reaching 9 years old for chrissake. So of course hw sales for these consoles have gone down. ATM there aren't enough compelling current gen games, so most consumers just don't care. Plus mobile gaming is so much bigger than it was at the start of the las gen. Basically, sales will improve, but they will be significantly lower than the las gen. And considering the increased production costs...that's a problem.

 

[njean777]

Are we really using Square-Enix as an example of efficient project management?

It baffles me as well, we have seen this whole gen that they have no clue as to what they are doing. Maybe this gen they can clean it up, but FF13 was a mess, no vs13 ever made it out (I know it is 15 now), took them forever to start KH3 and every other game they released sans a couple of handheld games was either middling or bad. Square is not the company to start saying "look at them the industry is going to crash!"

 

[thefro]

This is what I've been thinking for a while... once Sony & Microsoft run out of early adopters both their machines are going to lag in sales until they get some more original games out. I think they're going to do better than Wii U but people thinking they're going to continue to sell gangbusters are crazy.

There's not a compelling reason for most people to upgrade yet.

 

[Celine]

I also believe that having one large userbase like the PS2 would allow for the return of mid-tier games. Part of the reason the PS2 had such an amazing library (outside of err, New Zealand, apparently) was that there were enough fans of a given genre within the 100m userbase to release titles without too much marketing and without too many extra costs.

The mere size of a install base of a system won't reassure you a game in a niche genre will be a good investment.
If the number of consumers that will buy a game in a niche genre is the same as in the PS2 period but costs to produce and release in the market (against AAA games) is bigger than what used to be in the PS2 era then there is a chance that said game will simply not be greenlit.

You should know well since you have a "JRPG avatar" and that genre was heavily hit by this rule the past generation.

 

[Scum]

There's no question it is consolidating and has consolidated. People keep saying it is too early to tell, but it really isn't. Look at the carnage in the development sphere. Look at the contraction of publishers. Hell, look at a release calendar. This is not an expanding industry.

Except for our friends in the indie sphere. God bless 'em.

.

 

[FiggyCal]

Look at Tomb Raider. It needed 5 million copies sold to break even ie. cover the costs of developing it. The game was well recieved, it was released on everything not made by Nintendo, and it was still a financial failure. Square Enix are doubling down - hoping a follow up will have better success. But it will cost more to develop for PS4 / one, and they will have a smaller install base when it launches. What makes you think it is still a viable path?

Selling 5 million and yet failing to meet a profit is a fault on the part of Square Enix. Not a sign of the industry as a whole. Entire franchises have been built around games that sold much less. Mass Effect 1 for example sold less than 5 mil (according to EA-- MA1 and 2 combined sold 7 million).

 

[Captain Tuttle]

I think it's too early to tell with hardware.

In regards to software, I tend to agree with Kev right now, the industry isn't very healthy (although those GTA V sales were something else). I'm not seeing an implosion though, just a layer of mediocrity from large publishers but there is a market for that kind of thing. As Indie games gain prominence I think that the large publishing houses will want in on the action, creating small teams to make "indie style" games (whatever that means but you know them when you see them).

 

[Alessandro]

I have a lot of faith in kickstarter: If publishers don't want to take risks customers will.

Obsidian is leading the charge and I hope to see more japanese developers jump in the wagon in the future. I firmly believe (and hope) that crowdfunding will change the shape of this industry in better.

 

[The Hermit]

Steam is more popular than it's ever been. That's where the hardcore gamers are going.

I think even Nintendo should go the PC route eventually

 

[fastford58]

There is a huge contraction this month, but the contraction has been happening for quite some time.

Collapse of the games industry as we knew it has been moving at a slow pace up to this point, but with the huge drop off of last gen and the severe contraction of MS' xbox brand market share, it is really picking up pace.

I expect PS4 sales to tank out in the spring time as well. Most studios are not going to be able to survive making 40-60 million dollar games as a focus for the next 5 years. Especially the companies that are only AAA focused.

The mobile, f2p, and indie overlords are coming to pick the bones of the fallen, and from that, a new industry will take shape.

The question is what will the market adopt as the standard format for games? What will we as consumers do?

My money is on f2p and shit tier games like flappy bird. Much like the IT boom of the past, flash in the pan games are going to make a lot of people rich off of ad revenue until that collapses as well.

I'm not even convinced we will see an Xbox ver. 4 at this point. PS4 may sell enough to warrant a PS5, but unless Sony turns themselves around financially, that is a hard one to swallow as well. Nintendo is still too secular to do anything relevant and unless they can make some magic device again, they will continue to have the mediocre sales they have been having snice GC days.

At the end of the day, I think dedicated gaming devices are a thing of the past. People want more functionality...but not the type that X1 offers (MS misreading the consumer base for tech gear as per usual).

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

First of all, as others have said, we need information on digital sales and also on sales (retail+digital) on PC for a complete picture. Are there users moving from PS3/360 to PC/Steam?

How much have Steam sales grown compared to 2007? Have competing services seen some growth?

The general feeling seems to be that any growth on PC hasn't been enough to offset the shrinking console market, but seeing how some devs have been reporting increased income from Steam despite lowering game prices through sales and promotions, that general feeling may not be correct.

Personally I believe the industry is probably shrinking right now, due to macro-economic trends as well as inherent problems with how publishers are doing business. What I don't know is if this is a trend that can be reversed in 1-2 years, 3-5 years or if it will take even longer...

Funnily enough, I think more privatization is needed in order for the industry to stabilize, and that privatisation will enable developers to go back to making A or B games with much smaller budgets and also smaller profits, but with the benefit of being quicker to adapt to the market and better at communicating with the consumer. Along the way, I also hope the industry learns how to better preserve the value of its products over longer periods of time, despite rapid improvements in technology.

Steam is more popular than it's ever been. That's where the hardcore gamers are going.

Killing "B" tier developers or absorbing them and then killing them and making the need for everything to be AAA...The industry did this to itself.

Until we know digital sales it is impossible to know the full picture. There is factual evidence of games releasing and a third of their sales coming from digital sales (Fire Emblem Awakening opened with 63,000 digital sales). The PC market never gets brought up in these sort of discussions yet almost all of its sales come digitally and it is just accepted. It's not unreasonable to think PSN and XBL and eShop are gaining similar traction.

 

[Giant Panda]

Yes seriously. How the fuck are these consoles still priced at basically $200!? 360 is reaching 9 years old for chrissake. So of course hw sales for these consoles have gone down. ATM there aren't enough compelling current gen games, so most consumers just don't care. Plus mobile gaming is so much bigger than it was at the start of the las gen. Basically, sales will improve, but they will be significantly lower than the las gen. And considering the increased production costs...that's a problem.

The Xbox 360 and PS3 are way more complex than previous consoles have been, so it's hard to reduce costs enough below 200. At this point in their life MS and Sony want a good profit on each consoles sold, and then take inflation into account and you get a picture of why these consoles may never get below $200 for the regular versions.

 

[Ecotic]

I blame a large part of the contraction of the dedicated console and handheld market on mismanagement by Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo.

The Wii U has been a total disaster, and 3DS was underpowered and underfeatured. Sony never developed a profitable niche for the Vita, as console-lite on the go just isn't a sell. The Xbox One was underpowered and suffered from a horrible initial introduction, and while it has been salvaged to a great degree it is now showing the (initially hidden) effects of bad decisions.

Only Sony came correctly with the PS4. If all 3 were at the top of their game things would be different.

 

[bishopcruz]

Aye, but as far as I'm aware, the contraction we're looking at is dramatically larger than past gen transitions. Is it due to the fact that we've had a longer cycle than usual in your estimation?

That is part of it yes, the other part is simply the high prices of the HD twins. By 2005 the PS2 was $129, the Xbox was $149 in 2005 as well. That's a lot closer to impulse buy range than the $200+ for a 7-8 year old console. That means there is less of a disparity between last and current gen in price. A PS4 is only $150 more than the most expensive PS3 and $100 more than the most expensive Xbox 360. Not to mention that there have traditionally been huge sales jumps at sub-$150 and $99. The HD twins may never get to $99, but they absolutely need to cut costs. Their prices have been relatively stable for years. It's actually amazing they have done as well as they have at those prices.

I also think that the pricing of the HD twins ended up hurting the Wii U. $349 was too expensive when it launched, but that was only $50 or so above the most expensive of their competitors at the time. The problem is, the market was pretty much saturated at that price, as we are seeing now.

It wasn't a problem for PS1 or PS2 because games didn't cost an arm and a leg to make back then. If everybody was happy with Gamecube graphics right now, we'd be sitting pretty.

While game development costs are expected to increase slightly early in the generation as teams get used to the new hardware. There was a post in the NPD thread that quoted the expectation that within a couple of years, budgets will average about 10 million less than they do this generation (at least I THINK it was mentioned there), going from $25-30 million on average to $15-20 million. Still too high probably, but a fair bit more manageable.

On development budgets, this generation will be better than the previous one. The leading platforms (PC, PS4, Bone) all share the same basic architecture. PC and PS4 architecture is almost identical. It means the development process can be streamlined and one team can create games for all three platforms simultaneously rather than having to double up like early last gen when the PS3 was causing all kinds of headaches. I also believe that having one large userbase like the PS2 would allow for the return of mid-tier games. Part of the reason the PS2 had such an amazing library (outside of err, New Zealand, apparently) was that there were enough fans of a given genre within the 100m userbase to release titles without too much marketing and without too many extra costs. In the 7th gen the PC/360/PS3 architectures were so different that creating a mid-tier game was never viable because targeting the widest number of users meant a simultaneous release on three platforms, but by then the costs were so big that the project wouldn't make any money. With PC/PS4/Bone sharing architectures it does pave the way for mid-level games to make a come back, and for genre diversity to increase again as the cost of targeting the widest userbase is basically the same as making the game, aside from QC on each of the major platforms.

The ease of development should be HUGE for this gen. The PC style architecture should also allow for a lot of smaller developers to work on the platforms, which can only be good. The big question will be whether Japan will bite as traditionally a lot of the bigger 'mid-tier' games ended up coming from that market.

It just seems that everyone expects development costs to increase at the same rate they did last gen, and that has never been in the cards. I do think that the vast majority of the mid tier will end up being download only though.

BTW does anyone know if Sony and MS have the same rpicing controls on software this gen that they had last gen? IIRC, it was damn near impossible to release a retail title below $40 last gen due to the pay that licensing costs were paid out, or am I remembering that incorrectly?

 

[Gannd]

I've been beating this drum for a while and have been laughed at on the forum. The console industry isn't done but it isn't the same anymore. I think that Sony and Microsoft, both, will not release another console. Nintendo will because they're Nintendo. We have a whole generation of kids that are raised on games like LoL, Minecraft and their iPhones. Those kids aren't going to move into a console.

 

[Owzers]

How expensive were ps2 and xbox when the new systems came out? PS3 is $249 with Last of us and a 250GB HD or 199 with ...12GB HD. They need to get console prices down after 7 years to sell to a broader amount of people.

 

[Starchasing]

I in the next year or two the industry will have to consolidate. I really believe that for playstation and Nintendo to survive they need to merge.

It looks like Nintendo doesnt care much anymore for their 3ds and Wiiu. They seem to be putting their minimum effort to not piss fans and dedicating their time and money to their qol platform.

Thats why i think there will be 2 Nintendos in the future, sharing resources, architectures and knowledge. One will release a handheld and a console that cater the hardcore fans (with prices adapted to this new market)

And the other will be chasing the non-gamers with their QOL platform

 

[Ishan]

269 for a ps3? vs 400 for a ps4?

Pent up demand given the long console generation
Still overpriced previous gen hardware
Super powered launches will lead to obvious next gen declines

is the industry doomed. Nope. Dev costs are going up = will lead to streamlining and more outsourcing. Indie's are doing well. I'm not too worried. And at the end of the day there is still demand for AAA games so they will come. Is there the possibility of some of this super powered budget super expectations bubble bursting yup. doesnt mean the industry is finished.

My exroommate took his ps3 when he left. I want to buy a ps4 but can't afford it right now plus am not super pushed into it due to lack of new games. (Think driveclub/the order will push me over). I would def have picked up a ps3 or xbox360 for cheap in the meantime if they actually were at a price for 8 year old hardware (150 instead of 250).

Plus I think one thing people do really underestimate with the proliferation of mobile is their payment plans. Yeah it costs 800 overall but I can get it for a 100 and pay it off over time. Large chunk payments are a deterrent. Earlier that was the norm, now with payment plans for mobiles and super cheap games the decline is to be expected.

The industry will adapt. (Payment plans, digital only games etc etc)

 

[Petrae]

Aside from the most hardcore who in the general public still cares about gaming?.

Why would anyone pay $300-500 for this dedicated system when they already have a bunch of things that play Netflix just as good and tablets that play $1 games that already pass the time.

sure there are still the sports and cod crowds but they ain't upgrading until mass price drops and even then they buy at most 2-3 games a year.

some people here believe steam and PC is somehow the future and picking up the slack but I'd say its probably the opposite. The stuff popular on PC is mostly FTP stuff like Dota, LOL. this indie explosion on PC is because those games have no value just like mobile games. They are essentially given away on steam for peanuts otherwise no one would buy them. and none of these games really provide the experience a AAA console game currently gives.

PC cannot support the console games by itself. How much do most multiplat games sell on PC? 90% its a small fraction compared to ps3/360.

I in the next year or two the industry will have to consolidate. I really believe that for playstation and Nintendo to survive they need to merge.

I think there is still at least some interest outside of the core sector. We're still waiting for more prominent and system-selling software to arrive for both PS4 and XBO, and I think that happens gradually over the course of the year. Titanfall might be a catalyst for XBO (though that half a grand price tag is tough to overcome), while PS4 has inFamous and other games coming. It's just too soon to say whether consumers will come back.

That said, some may choose to take their money elsewhere. Mobile/tablet gaming is acceptable for some people. Others may choose to stick with what they have (at least for the time being). Still others may migrate to PC and leave consoles behind. Heck, I'm skipping a console generation for the first time in my 42 years... and I'm guessing that there are a few others (though not a ton) who may have decided to do the same.

I said this before I left sales analysis behind last year, but I'll say it again here: My best guess is that Gen8 will see some contraction overall, but it won't be enough to cause any kind of collapse. Last gen was the bubble-- it's only natural to see some deflation afterwards.

 

[Qiot]

Are there any figures at all with regards to digital sales? Without those and no figures at all for PC gaming it is hard to get a clear picture of the overall market.

Looking at what we do know in regards to publishers and game budgets, I'd say "AAA" development can't continue as it is now (aside from a handful of exceptions like CoD, GTA and Ass. Creed).

Budgets are going up and up and up and a single game failure now usually means the closure of a studio. Tomb Raider needing 5M just to break even is insane and it was made by a solid developer that has been in the industry for decades. How will they survive when the next game targetting X1/PS4 machines costs even more to make?

I wonder if any of the large western publishers will blink first and start trying non-mobile small budget games for home consoles, or will it be a case of indies rising from the bottom to tackle slightly bigger projects.

 

[Gannd]

I wouldn't worry.

The PS4 at the very least will do just fine. And one console dominating wasn't a problem for the PS1 or PS2.

Last gen consoles declining fast is a given and probably a good thing? The new consoles are off to an explosive start so its a good thing that people are aiming for next gen faster, no? There's also the fact that the last gen consoles are still quite pricey and haven't had a price drop in a while.

The explosive start is due to the 8 year long generation. There was a lot of pent of demand for new systems. The PS4, in my belief, will be selling Xbox One numbers by summer.

 

[EventHorizon]

VR won't shake up the industry at all, IMO. All the things that have shaken up the industry have more or less been social in nature in one way or another - be it local multiplayer, social networking features, etc. VR is the antithesis of social.
It'll possibly hit big with the hardcore crowd, but it'll likely languish in obscurity much in the way PC gaming did/continues to do.

I also have to wonder what VR gaming is going to do for development costs. Right now people seem to mainly be porting their first person games, but a few years down the road people are doing to start figuring out all the cool things you can really do with VR, I have to imagine that the cost of development is doing to further go up... thereby adding more to the problems outlined in this thread.

VR will open up new types of gaming. I predict it that it will slowly ramp up to the original Wii levels of hype. The main thing slowing it down is that it requires pricey tech to do right. Once a non vomit inducing form of VR can be had on the cheap, it is going to explode. When you can get this type of reaction from grandma, then you have a pretty good hint that the tech won't be contained to the hardcore audience.

Grandma with Oculus Rift

 

[Opiate]

I want to point out that standout, exceptional sales of specific, individual titles may actually be a bad sign.

That may sound absurd, but it depends on the context. In a consolidating market, the market consolidates around a few, specific winners. That's what the word means. As a contrasting example, the FPS market in the earlier parts of last generation would qualify as a non-consolidating market; yes, Call of Duty sold gangbusters, but lots of other FPSes did well, too. If the biggest winner wins big but everyone else can win too, that's a healthy, growing market. However, if the biggest winner wins big at the expense of everyone else, that's typically a sign of a consolidating market.

Again, that's literally the nature of consolidation -- the market consolidates around a few, lucky winners, while everything else withers. Deciding what the sales of GTAV represent is therefore actually a difficult question. We'd need to look at the market broadly to see whether its sales are a sign of a healthy, growing industry with lots of success stories, or a consolidating industry that is contracting around the big winners. I think Y2Kev is right and to my eye the console industry resembles the latter more than the former.

 

[Ishan]

I think there is still at least some interest outside of the core sector. We're still waiting for more prominent and system-selling software to arrive for both PS4 and XBO, and I think that happens gradually over the course of the year. Titanfall might be a catalyst for XBO (though that half a grand price tag is tough to overcome), while PS4 has inFamous and other games coming. It's just too soon to say whether consumers will come back.

That said, some may choose to take their money elsewhere. Mobile/tablet gaming is acceptable for some people. Others may choose to stick with what they have (at least for the time being). Still others may migrate to PC and leave consoles behind. Heck, I'm skipping a console generation for the first time in my 42 years... and I'm guessing that there are a few others (though not a ton) who may have decided to do the same.

I said this before I left sales analysis behind last year, but I'll say it again here: My best guess is that Gen8 will see some contraction overall, but it won't be enough to cause any kind of collapse. Last gen was the bubble-- it's only natural to see some deflation afterwards.

I highly doubt infamous will push units. Its more a game for ppl who already got the system. Titanfall would have if it was xbox1 only now its hard to predict. The consoles need their killer apps which havent arrived. (I'm looking toward order for the ps4 as the gears of this gen. Xbox has titanfall but beyond that dunno maybe quantum break ... i doubt sunset overdrive or the new forza will push units. also given the upcoming halo is not a new game but an update/remake im not sure how much that will push units.)

 

[Giant Panda]

I've been beating this drum for a while and have been laughed at on the forum. The console industry isn't done but it isn't the same anymore. I think that Sony and Microsoft, both, will not release another console. Nintendo will because they're Nintendo. We have a whole generation of kids that are raised on games like LoL, Minecraft and their iPhones. Those kids aren't going to move into a console.

That's some large jumping to conclusions there. You're crazy if you think you can state at this point that Sony won't make another console. You have zero evidence to support such a silly conclusion.

 

[Gannd]

How expensive were ps2 and xbox when the new systems came out? PS3 is $249 with Last of us and a 250GB HD or 199 with ...12GB HD. They need to get console prices down after 7 years to sell to a broader amount of people.

The PS2 was $149 and the Xbox was killed by the time the Xbox 360 came out. The PS3 also launched when the PS2 was 6 years old. The PS4 launched with the PS3 being 8 years old. There isn't going to be a long tail like the PS2 had. One reason the PS2 had such a long tail was that the PS3 was so fucking expensive. The PS3 isn't.

 

[Taurus]

The explosive start is due to the 8 year long generation. There was a lot of pent of demand for new systems. The PS4, in my belief, will be selling Xbox One numbers by summer.

Agreed. Also the release list for X1/PS4/WiiU looks terrible for the first half of the year, so no big software releases to drive sales.

 

[Gannd]

That's some large jumping to conclusions there. You're crazy if you think you can state at this point that Sony won't make another console. You have zero evidence to support such a silly conclusion.

If the market contracts the way I think it will and we have Sony saying that mobile is their future, they are done with consoles. They will put their resources behind Playstation Now and their mobile devices. Sony will still make games but they'll be consumed through Playstation Now and not a Playstation 5. Sony cannot afford to continue to pump good money after bad into a new console when the market is going to be much smaller. The growth is all in mobile and games as a service. Not in consoles. The console industry isn't going to die but it isn't going to be what most of you grew up with. It's over.

 

[ghst]

some people here believe steam and PC is somehow the future and picking up the slack but I'd say its probably the opposite. The stuff popular on PC is mostly FTP stuff like Dota, LOL. this indie explosion on PC is because those games have no value just like mobile games. They are essentially given away on steam for peanuts otherwise no one would buy them. and none of these games really provide the experience a AAA console game currently gives.

the two highest fliers sales on steam for the past three months are £20 indie games with no set structure or narrative and are still in alpha. i can't imagine how terrifying this must be to traditional publishers.

the console model is a stadium rock band. sure, they can still sell out arenas full of people who never let go of their poodle haircuts, but nobody is looking to them for new ideas.

i mean, let's take a look at what people are actually playing on steam, the gateway to the only traditional (if you can even call it that) gaming platform to be showing significant growth:

1: dota 2 - F2P PC only.
2: CS: GO - paid PC centric.. barely supported on console.
3: TF2 - F2P PC only. barely supported paid release on console,
4: rust - paid PC only alpha access.
5: football manager 2014 - paid PC & mobile.
6: civ V - paid PC only.
7: counter-strike - paid PC only.
8: skyrim - paid multiplat*.
9: day Z - paid PC only alpha access. supposedly coming to PS4 upon full release.
10: CS:S - paid PC only.
11: Garry's Mod - paid PC dickaround simulator.
12: loadout - F2P PC only.
13: warframe - F2P multiplat.
14: L4D2 - paid multiplat*.
15: borderlands 2 - paid multiplat*.
16: total war: rome 2 - paid PC only.
17: starbound - paid PC only alpha access.
18: terraria - paid multiplat*.
19: football manager - paid PC & mobile.
20: CoD: black ops II - paid multiplat*.

*not available for next gen consoles

bear in mind that this doesn't include the likes of league of legends and numerous other PC centric/only behemoths which choose to use their own clients, and you have a far more democratic, scattershot and idiosyncratic market to target than the traditional AAA console publisher ever envisioned in their worst nightmares.

 

[Abounder]

Industry is in a strange place. On the one hand we still have studios struggling, and on the other hand there are record breakers like GTA, Star Citizen (donations), Minecraft, PS4, etc. And what's even stranger is that we are having new players enter the living room in Amazon and STEAM.

Anyway I think the future for gaming is in its affordability. I just don't think we can expect to grow the console market that needs $400+ boxes.


Affordable virtual reality needs to become a pop culture phenomena

 

[Gannd]

I want to point out that standout, exceptional sales of specific, individual titles may actually be a bad sign.

That may sound absurd, but it depends on the context. In a consolidating market, the market consolidates around a few, specific winners. That's what the word means. As a contrasting example, the FPS market in the earlier parts of last generation would qualify as a non-consolidating market; yes, Call of Duty sold gangbusters, but lots of other FPSes did well, too. If the biggest winner wins big but everyone else can win too, that's a healthy, growing market. However, if the biggest winner wins big at the expense of everyone else, that's typically a sign of a consolidating market.

Again, that's literally the nature of consolidation -- the market consolidates around a few, lucky winners, while everything else withers. Deciding what the sales of GTAV represent is therefore actually a difficult question. We'd need to look at the market broadly to see whether its sales are a sign of a healthy, growing industry with lots of success stories, or a consolidating industry that is contracting around the big winners. I think Y2Kev is right and to my eye the console industry resembles the latter more than the former.

I agree with you. I think the new console market is going to be centred around young men and a few hit AAA titles and indy games that release on a lot of platforms. The console business doesn't look healthy. I also think we'll see companies continue the console trend of either hitting it big or going tits up. If we look at where the publishers are putting their resources its not in the console space.

I think the Steam Machine could end up being the most successful console if Valve can work out away to get the library from the PC to the SteamOS.

 

[outunderthestars]

Industry is in a strange place. On the one hand we still have studios struggling, and on the other hand there are record breakers like GTA, Star Citizen (donations), Minecraft, PS4, etc. And what's even stranger is that we are having new players enter the living room in Amazon and STEAM.

Anyway I think the future for gaming is in its affordability. I just don't think we can expect to grow the console market that needs $400+ boxes.


Affordable virtual reality needs to become a pop culture phenomena

Console prices will come down, just like they have every generation. The PS3 had a dismal launch, but ended up OK.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

The development should go down from last gen though.

This argument is fairly easy to disprove. Looking at any other industry in the history of the world, I don't think we've ever seen one that has been able to sustain (over generations) growth at rates that allow complexity to jump ten fold every ten years or so. Not only are there physical limits restricting such growth, the pool of workers simply doesn't grow fast enough to keep up!

Even the best tools can't offset an exponential growth in complexity enough to slow it down (ie. decrease the value of the exponent) for very long periods of time. The only way such changes occur is when paradigms shift, and completely new approaches are applied. But history teaches us such changes are impossible to predict ahead of time, and even estimating their frequency is not necessarily a problem that can be solved..

 

[Giant Panda]

If the market contracts the way I think it will and we have Sony saying that mobile is their future, they are done with consoles. They will put their resources behind Playstation Now and their mobile devices. Sony will still make games but they'll be consumed through Playstation Now and not a Playstation 5. Sony cannot afford to continue to pump good money after bad into a new console when the market is going to be much smaller. The growth is all in mobile and games as a service. Not in consoles. The console industry isn't going to die but it isn't going to be what most of you grew up with. It's over.

So you're thinking is all based on false information and jumping to conclusions. PlayStation Now hasn't started yet, so thinking you'll know how well that will do doesn't make any sense, and Sony never said that their gaming future was in mobile. Also the PS4 is making them money so have no idea why you call it putting good money after bad.

 

[Alessandro]

I think Y2Kev is right and to my eye the console industry resembles the latter more than the former.

I'm no expert but aren't drought pretty much a common thing in everything human related?

At school they taught me that after a peak comes a slope and after the slope comes a peak. If I remember correctly they're called malthusian cycles.

Something like this:

 

[Hari Seldon]

This argument is fairly easy to disprove. Looking at any other industry in the history of the world, I don't think we've ever seen one that has been able to sustain (over generations) growth at rates that allow complexity to jump ten fold every ten years or so. Not only are there physical limits restricting such growth, the pool of workers simply doesn't grow fast enough to keep up!

Even the best tools can't offset an exponential growth in complexity enough to slow it down (ie. decrease the value of the exponent) for very long periods of time. The only way such changes occur is when paradigms shift, and completely new approaches are applied. But history teaches us such changes are impossible to predict ahead of time, and even estimating their frequency is not necessarily a problem that can be solved..

I don't understand the rising costs of development at all. It seems contradictory. You now have many teams of 1-5 people pumping out games that you didn't have back in the PS2 days. Games seem to be easier to make than ever because of the tools. Why has this not translated to AAA studios?

 

[Garcia]

some people here believe steam and PC is somehow the future and picking up the slack but I'd say its probably the opposite. The stuff popular on PC is mostly FTP stuff like Dota, LOL. this indie explosion on PC is because those games have no value just like mobile games. They are essentially given away on steam for peanuts otherwise no one would buy them. and none of these games really provide the experience a AAA console game currently gives.

It is quite unfortunate for you to think that way. That mindset will permanently leave you out of some of the most rewarding and surprising gems out there. A game doesn't need to be AAA in order to deliver a fulfilling and engaging experience to the player and this is precisely why the indie scene is so necessary for the industry.

AAA is a cancer that keeps killing smaller studios and great ideas.

 

[FiggyCal]

I agree with you. I think the new console market is going to be centred around young men and a few hit AAA titles and indy games that release on a lot of platforms. The console business doesn't look healthy. I also think we'll see companies continue the console trend of either hitting it big or going tits up. If we look at where the publishers are putting their resources its not in the console space.

I think the Steam Machine could end up being the most successful console if Valve can work out away to get the library from the PC to the SteamOS.

@bold I don't understand the point you're trying to make. And I especially don't see why you think Steambox will be the most successful if its core audience is already on PC and most of the gaming audience has no idea what it is.

 

[Gannd]

So you're thinking is all based on false information and jumping to conclusions. PlayStation Now hasn't started yet, so thinking you'll know how well that will do doesn't make any sense, and Sony never said that their gaming future was in mobile. Also the PS4 is making them money so have no idea why you call it putting good money after bad.

The PS4 isn't making money. Their game divisions success was due to the PS3. Sony has said their future as a COMPANY is in mobile and services. Playstation Now can be device agnostic. It's games as a service.

It's fine you're not bearish. The console industry isn't healthy. The PS4 will see the decline as well. It will sell the best of the three but it won't hit PS3 levels. Sony needs to find growth and the console industry isn't growing.