Support NeoGAF

[geordiemp]

Lets face it, even with 2 Ps4, I think that this next gen is just a prettier last gen with better frame rate. COD / BF and AC play the same....

The industry has tried numerous things to get casuals to gain the numbers seen by the wii, in no particular order

1. Motion controls - Wii and Psmove
2. Body controls - Kinect
3. 3D - 3DS and sony first party on Ps3
4. Second screens, pads, smartglass etc

They have come, they have gone. I think the next big thing to get the market excited again will be VR (just my opinion).

Imagine selling the experience of being an astronaut on a jet pack in a game on moon or . mars / whatever - if it works it could be the next big thing.

Needs something, otherwise the casual interest may not come back ?

 

[Kimosabae]

Anecdotally: people don't even talk about consoles anymore - but they still play games (as evidenced by the iOS/Android usage I've seen). I've yet to hold a conversation with anyone about the new consoles nor have I heard anyone speak of them. I never think about them outside reading GAF or checking out the kiosks on the very rare occasion I decide to visit Best Buy. For the most part: these consoles don't even exist to me yet. There just seems to be no hype beyond the demand that already existed for new systems prior to launch.

 

[RoboPlato]

I think there's just too many devices on the market right now. PS3 and 360 still have a lot of games coming out for them and there hasn't been a game shown yet that has the widespread appeal that will cause people to want to upgrade. Hardware sales are overcrowded and development costs are going up because they have to be staffed to make 5 or 6 versions of each game.

 

[kinggroin]

Do you not think that the bolded applies every bit as much to many of what we describe as 'AAA' console games?


Puzzle & Dragons > Your favourite puzzle game.

Seriously though, mobile games are far too diverse to lump into one category. Unless you're talking specifically about the business models of the highest grossing apps, it's no more descriptive that 'PC Games' or 'Indies'.

Unfortunately, the bulk of mobile games that 'they' like to play are a wee bit dodgy to say the least.

No. I think you misunderstood me meng.

Look at mobile games...they aren't just shit throw away titles. There are more than enough quality (and very cheap) offerings that would provide Joe sally gamer as much entertainment as the PS2 or Wii they used to have.

Its the new good enough, in a good way.

 

[NTIETS13A_Superiority]

Hard to say anything about next-gen yet. It is fine as of now. Last-gen needs big price-cuts. Handhelds market just keeps shrinking. One good thing about this gen is that, prices should be way easier to get down. When we close the 200$ price, then we know if casuals care or not. Snoy/MS should sell consoles with minimal margins (as always) to get prices down quick and get console economy boosting to engourage publishers/devs to take risks.

last-gen console prices down. Current gen prices as low as possible alaways and bringing tons of sw.

 

[Toski]

The best thing that could happen to this industry would be for the bubble to burst on all of the bloated, unneeded so-called "huge titles" with mega budgets and multi-year development cycles. We don't want them. They effectively destroy developers and publishers either due to tanking... or if they're successful... forcing them into regurgitating them with recycled assets that stunt creativity. The only studios proven to be capable at developing these juggernauts and not compromising themselves in the process are Naughty Dog and Rockstar North.

Every publisher leaning on this model NEEDS to get wiped out. And if only one platform is successful, so much the better. It means only one platform is getting AAA-exclusives instead of 3 or 4. It means only one platform needs to be optimized for the big third-party AAA titles instead of 3 or 4. And it forces publishers and developers to entertain the idea of smaller titles with quicker development cycles, smaller teams, fresh ideas, abandoning the "everything must be $60 at launch price model" and adopting the approach that indie devs have embraced. Not trying to be the next Call of Duty in a market full of aspiring Call of Duties.

AAA games are mostly garbage and if the industry has to burn down and rebuild itself around delivering content that's not so focused on graphical splendor and Hollywood storytelling, good.

I don't think killing "AAA" games will get you guys what you want. We kicked out the licensed games, shovelware, kids, and now you want to kill AAA. If you want AAA to die, I don't think you can complain about market contraction.

 

[Opiate]

People are reading way to much into just one months sales. At this point, both the ps4 and XBO are significantly outpacing their predecessors, and I think the ps4 is even over the ps2's total sales for this early.

Neither have even launched in all their markets yet, which again skews numbers. They also heavily frontloaded their sales, with massive launches.

Give it a year folks, and then judge those consoles. By then, stock will be stable, worldwide launches finish, and the release calendar less sparse.

The only one we can say for sure is in trouble is nintendo. They have had their year, and still aren't making any traction. Sales continue to fall, despite some major releases. If they can't get major sales after MK8 and smash, they will effectively lose any chance to get their feet, baring some major action or some out of left field hit.

I agree that conclusions are premature, but would add that this month's data isn't the first sign of the changing landscape. In the same way there were signs of a changing landscape before the 3DS/Vita even launched, we could see consolidation and contraction occurring before the PS4/Xbone even launched.

The failure of the Wii U, the slowdown of the PS3/360, the contraction of large publishers like EA, the considerable slowdown of released titles, the closing mid range publishers and even higher range ones like THQ -- this month's data is not the first evidence.

With all that said, again, I agree that we can't reach confident conclusions yet. I'm just pointing out that evidence is more than a month's NPD.

 

[Disaster Nebraska]

The contraction in market is already occurring. I think this will be the first gen in 30 years that is - overall - smaller than the previous gen in terms of total consoles sold. We had a steady march of 20 years where the game market grew, in large part due to macro-economic conditions. New markets were opening up and big money was flowing in: kids with allowances and teens working as grocery clerks became working professionals with a lot more cash to blow. But that has changed. The working professionals are out of work, price of gas is up at the pump, and babby needs a box of diapers and a tin of formula for the week. Looks like such-and-such game will have to wait. And I think this is partly why these few big-names like CoD sell so well. Might as well buy the safe bet if that's all you can afford.

And while the easy answer is to simply snark with "I for one welcome our new smartphone overlords", the reality is that bubble will burst, too. Everyone talks about profitability, but dig into the numbers and you see that an incredibly narrow percentage of smartphone games turn that kind of high profit. The smartphone market is already super-saturated with clones and low-quality products. This can't last forever.

Profit will be the name of the game this gen. How much profit does each console sale earn? Sure, such-and-such game sold 10 million, but was it profitable (an honest question, with ever-inflating dev costs)? I think whatever company embraces indies the most is going to benefit the most. Everyone wants the next Minecraft hit and you can nab 45 indie games for the price of one GTA5 .

People mock - for example - the Vita as an indie machine but that's how that platform is going to survive. This may sound insane, but a platform like Vita is actually going to "win" compared to a platform like Wii-U (sold at a loss, months between game releases) or the Xbox One (limited worldwide appeal; billions of dollars sunk into it) simply because Vita is holding its own head above water, despite its incredibly low sales.

 

[njean777]

The contraction in market is already occurring. I think this will be the first gen in 30 years that is - overall - smaller than the previous gen in terms of total consoles sold.

And while the easy answer is to simply snark with "I for one welcome our new smartphone overlords", the reality is that bubble will burst, too. Everyone talks about profitability, but dig into the numbers and you see that an incredibly narrow percentage of smartphone games turn that kind of high profit.

Profit will be the name of the game this gen. How much profit does each console sale earn? Sure, such-and-such game sold 10 million, but was it profitable (an honest question, with ever-inflating dev costs)? I think whatever company embraces indies the most is going to benefit the most. Everyone wants the next Minecraft hit and you can nab 45 indie games for the price of one GTA5 . People mock - for example - the Vita as an indie machine but that's how that platform is going to survive.

Yep people saying mobile is the future need to really learn that mobile does not give huge profits except to the very lucky few.

 

[Draft]

I don't think killing "AAA" games will get you guys what you want. We kicked out the licensed games, shovelware, kids, and now you want to kill AAA. If you want AAA to die, I don't think you can complain about market contraction.

I'm not bothered by market contraction, as the expansion of the market has largely been through content of little personal interest.

I also feel like licensed games, shovelware, and games focused on children are immensely successful, especially on consoles. Isn't Skylanders one of Activision's billion dollar franchises? And isn't a Lego game in the January top 10?

 

[dragonfart28]

From the perspective of sustainability, I think we should be fine.

The real story is that the expansion of this industry is not happening quickly enough.

Videogames will be maintaining their stigma as a niche market for a certain type of individual. That is because there really is no truly significant change in the way they are experienced.

Wii was a good attempt to buck the trend, but it wasn't supported well enough and most gamers are a traditional lot that preferred a more conventional approach to change.

I don't think software is going to cut it this generation.

There needs to be a radically different hardware platform to truly excite a new audience to this industry and allow it to expand.

 

[Fine Ham Abounds]

The real danger to the industry isn't the fact that they are making casual popcorn spectacle games, it's that the budgets on those titles require 4 million sales at $60 a pop +$40 in DLC to break even. Trouble is, the actual casual demographic has been trending towards lower priced games for years, and in the same time frame a great many hardcore enthusiasts have decided these games aren't worth more than $20 to them either. How long these publishers think they can continue to build games around Metacritic values instead of customer trends is anyone's guess.

I do feel though that many on both sides are getting tired of the consumer milking environment that's emerged on phones and consoles, and there's a middle ground forming where money saving enthusiasts and casuals becoming enthusiasts are embracing mid-priced digital titles. I see the industry thriving in the future with quality, single-A games priced under $30.

It may be the portion of the market that will be hit the least when the AAA+DLC and mobile milking market bubbles burst. And they will, eventually.

 

[Gannd]

Yep people saying mobile is the future need to really learn that mobile does not give huge profits except to the very lucky few.

Neither does the console business.

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

I've had a worrying suspicion that this generation for NA/WE developers and pubs will look eerily like Japan's last gen; ie, fewer but bigger pubs that can even attempt big tent pole AAA titles with huge cashflow problems everywhere and another venue with different goals emerging to snipe cash and limelight away. We'll see.

we are going to be stuck with iphone/android games.

Candy Crush rakes in $650,000 a day
flappy bird makes $50K a day

Japan mobile market is bigger than US:
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303330204579250090182968948

We are left with 4-5 publishers. Almost all of them are in weak shape with just one big hit a year. Sooner or latter they will go towards smaller budget, less risky route. Console sales are mostly determined on the launch day sales, if it fails then there is no way recover. On mobile games they can go back fix it, continue to support and stay alive.

This is key; hopefully for game design if it does get big, that we'll see real beachheads of full games transfer over.

If not...

Steam is more popular than it's ever been. That's where the hardcore gamers are going.

...well, I hope PC gets those immigrants.

 

[Toski]

I'm not bothered by market contraction, as the expansion of the market has largely been through content of little personal interest.

I also feel like licensed games, shovelware, and games focused on children are immensely successful, especially on consoles. Isn't Skylanders one of Activision's billion dollar franchises? And isn't a Lego game in the January top 10?

The PS2 era had a lot more kids games as much of it was licensed. With the collapse of THQ and other publishers, and EA cutting down on licensed output, it seems kids games are more consolidated like everything else.

 

[Nafai1123]

It's way too early in this generation to jump to any conclusions about the health of the market. We haven't hit the watershed moment that displays what's truly possible with the new hardware, either from a software or hardware perspective.

 

[Sulik2]

One console dominating is actually better for the publishers. You can have a big enough install base that niche games will still sell well and you don't have to waste time and resources porting to other consoles. Everything sold great on PS2 cause so many people had them.

 

[GillianSeed79]

This is a gordian knot combined with an impossible to satisfy, petulant audience.

What happens if a big AAA game doesn't have AAA production values? It gets shit on. Can you sell it at a reduced price? No, because then people think there's something wrong with it. So it price collapses in two days. So now everyone is waiting for a price collapse on everything.

Can everyone reduce the budgets of every game they make simultaneously? Well, good luck negotiating that one.

Here's what I DO see: fewer and fewer releases being centered around absouberMEGA releases with absolutely insane budgets.

That's how I see at least the start of this gen shaking out. One only has to look at the release calendar post PS4 and Xbox One's launch. Granted, there this is always a post-launch drought, but it seems more pronounced this go around and I can I think of only a handful or so of super-mega-hyped-AAA games coming out this year.

That being said, I think, as far as pricing and budgets go, if there is a significant contraction, I think it will hasten platform holders efforts to move to the games as a service model and cloud/stream gaming. It's probably no coincidence that MS and Sony are investing heavily in these types of services.

I think the way you get out of the pitfall of the $60 AAA game or bust console marketplace is if we see these companies really embrace digital storefronts where the small indie game, $20 mid-tier/indie game and the $60 AAA tent pole game with an insane budget can all co-exist in the same marketplace. I just don't think that will ever be a reality with retail, but it could work if the future is digital only. The pitfall with that, though, is quality control.

 

[Kintaro]

Well, I'll speak from a gamer and semi-retailer perspective here.

It's slow. It's really slow right now. Both of the new consoles have nothing that is catching the eyes of my customers right now until inFamous and Titanfall. Even then? The interest is pretty low. I look at the games announced that are coming soon and its not even half a page for either PS4 or XB1. After march, there is nothing until September. It's a hard sell. Those who are picking up PS4s and XB1s seem to be doing so on the basis of the hopes of future titles. I've had customers who bought at launch and come in now disappointed that nothing is coming out.

On the last gen side of things, if you take a look at the games coming out, things are pretty good. Especially on the PS3 side. However, there is hardly any interest. People joke if South Park is actually coming out this time. Dark Souls II gets some attention. However the preorder numbers in my area are very low. Console sales even lower. Both machines are simply too high. Both should be $149 w/ HDDs now. On top of that, it seems interest has dropped like a rock. Want to know what sells the most in my store? Used copies of Call of Dutys (usually Black Ops II).

From my gamer standpoint, last gen consoles and handhelds is delivering in spades with a ton of hardcore titles aimed at my heart. So many RPGs on PS3 coming, great stuff on Vita (and the new Vita) and 3DS. As much as I can praise Earth Defense Force to my customers, they aren't buying. =P Me? I'm going broke!

Overall, it feels like there is a malaise right now. This transition may be pretty rough. Whether we are in for some rough times or not, I don't know. However, it is deniable that there is NOTHING coming out on these new consoles that is driving any real interest/hard numbers yet. Maybe when Destiny hits or maybe after E3. I dunno. E3 better bring it and bring it hard though.

Want to know how you can tell things are slow? When GameStop starts getting real desperate. Layaways on XB1s, continues to hold Ps4s for online bundles to move stock on games and accessories, price slashes on last gen preowned consoles and games, printing up all new marketing sections for $9.99 used games in bright ass, ugly colors. They are scrambling.

 

[famousmortimer]

Looking at numbers from prior generations compared to this is not all that encouraging. But every gen shakes out differently.


I could just as easily say that Gta v had the biggest opening of any game ever a few months ago and then the ps4 had the best system launch in history so right now things seem super awesome.


The truth, of course, is somewhere in the middle and it's impossible to know where. When good games come out people buy them. Publishers aren't as impoverished as they would like us to believe. Ubisoft sold 10 million copies of ac4 coming off the absolute shitshow that was ac3. Cod is getting smaller but at a fairly glacial pace and still will sell a ton.


I think the more interesting question is whether the wii u and xbox one are selling like shit because the market is contracting or are they selling like shit because of bad choices when designing the hardware? Because the ps4 is generally thought of as a well built and decently priced machine and it's selling just fine.

 

[rdrr gnr]

AAA is a cancer that keeps killing smaller studios and great ideas.

I think there is just a disingenuous disconnect between one's concern for the viability of the games industry and one's own alleged preferences. The parallel that has already been drawn in this thread is somewhat valid: AAA games are like giant Hollywood blockbusters (which have their own critics). Yet no really questions the artistic or creative merit of these things without cherry picking evidence. Yes, there are plenty of derivative AAA titles, but the same can be said of indies. But time after time this forum, which in part does represent a selection of the most critical and passionate gamers out there, votes titles like these [1,2,3] the best of the year. And I don't think it's because people are uncritical or don't know any better, I think it's because AAA gaming represents a totally valid and enjoyable (and, I think, essential) part of the interactive experience spectrum. Wishing the death of AAA won't usher in a golden age, it'll just mean a unique type of experience has simply been denied to you.

 

[system11]

I'd love to see game visuals dialled back a bit in some amount of software. What's wrong with spending 10% of the budget on a less lavish game which is still fun? Example from last gen - Hyperdimension Neptunia Mk2, there's no way that cost as much as Tomb Raider to develop. I enjoyed it at least as much, for a longer amount of time.

I think the problem is twofold - consumers who can't enjoy games for gameplay and NEED cinematic visual experiences, and publishers who don't want to make and sell smaller scope games.

 

[njean777]

Neither does the console business.

Far less people make it on huge on mobile, name me 5 games on mobile that make nearly as much as say GTA, COD, Elder Scrolls, BF, Dota, LOL, Madden, NBA 2K, Final Fantasy, Mario and all the iterations (cart, sports, etc). I can think of four Angry Birds, COC, and Candy Crush, dragons game from japan (do not know the name). Now can people make it on mobile and not become huge? Sure they can, but the same can be said about consoles/pc. With self publishing on the consoles now just about anybody can develop for them, same with the PC.

Well, I'll speak from a gamer and semi-retailer perspective here.

It's slow. It's really slow right now. Both of the new consoles have nothing that is catching the eyes of my customers right now until inFamous and Titanfall. Even then? The interest is pretty low. I look at the games announced that are coming soon and its not even half a page for either PS4 or XB1. After march, there is nothing until September. It's a hard sell. Those who are picking up PS4s and XB1s seem to be doing so on the basis of the hopes of future titles. I've had customers who bought at launch and come in now disappointed that nothing is coming out.

On the last gen side of things, if you take a look at the games coming out, things are pretty good. Especially on the PS3 side. However, there is hardly any interest. People joke if South Park is actually coming out this time. Dark Souls II gets some attention. However the preorder numbers in my area are very low. Console sales even lower. Both machines are simply too high. Both should be $149 w/ HDDs now. On top of that, it seems interest has dropped like a rock. Want to know what sells the most in my store? Used copies of Call of Dutys (usually Black Ops II).

From my gamer standpoint, last gen consoles and handhelds is delivering in spades with a ton of hardcore titles aimed at my heart. So many RPGs on PS3 coming, great stuff on Vita (and the new Vita) and 3DS. As much as I can praise Earth Defense Force to my customers, they aren't buying. =P Me? I'm going broke!

Overall, it feels like there is a malaise right now. This transition may be pretty rough. Whether we are in for some rough times or not, I don't know. However, it is deniable that there is NOTHING coming out on these new consoles that is driving any real interest/hard numbers yet. Maybe when Destiny hits or maybe after E3. I dunno. E3 better bring it and bring it hard though.

Want to know how you can tell things are slow? When GameStop starts getting real desperate. Layaways on XB1s, continues to hold Ps4s for online bundles to move stock on games and accessories, price slashes on last gen preowned consoles and games, printing up all new marketing sections for $9.99 used games in bright ass, ugly colors. They are scrambling.

This always happens, the first year for new consoles is always a ghost town. 360/ps3 were no exception. I remember not playing any next gen games until Gears launched and that was about a year after the 360 was available. This is nothing new, it takes about a year for new games to come out. We have evolve and Destiny coming along with Infamous and Titanfall. two of those games have last gen counter parts still (titan fall and Destiny). After this first year is when you will see more and more only ps4/one/pc games.

 

[Buddha Beam]

I don't see anything that says VR users can't connect over the internet. The Oculus guys say that it's especially interesting to see other players in a VR space.

You're on the wrong side of history on this one. VR is going to be big.

"Languish in obscurity" is a good one, BTW.

Nah. I'm correct. You have two things going against VR.

1) It's not conducive to social, local multiplayer. For obvious reasons. I'll wager it isn't going to be a fun time for the majority of people in a room playing a VR game when they're all wearing headsets and can't actually see each other. That's supposing you can get the kind of casual players who make the gaming industry grow in the first place to even give VR a try.
It's fine and dandy that you can see other players in a game with a VR headset on, but that isn't ever going to be the same as sitting on a couch playing Mario Kart or Street Fighter or Wii Sports with your friends and family.

2) It's not conducive to bite-size pick up and play gaming. For equally obvious reasons.
Both of those types of gaming experiences are what has largely driven the gaming industry's expansion for roughly the last decade, starting with the DS.

Find a way to do it without requiring people to wear a headpiece and I'll change my tune, though. But we'll have holodecks before the masses happily take to VR.

I'm not saying it'll be dead in a year or two. But it'll be a hardcore gamer thing mostly. I guarantee it.

 

[quest]

Looking at numbers from prior generations compared to this is not all that encouraging. But every gen shakes out differently.


I could just as easily say that Gta v had the biggest opening of any game ever a few months ago and then the ps4 had the best system launch in history so right now things seem super awesome.


The truth, of course, is somewhere in the middle and it's impossible to know where. When good games come out people buy them. Publishers aren't as impoverished as they would like us to believe. Ubisoft sold 10 million copies of ac4 coming off the absolute shitshow that was ac3. Cod is getting smaller but at a fairly glacial pace and still will sell a ton.


I think the more interesting question is whether the wii u and xbox one are selling like shit because the market is contracting or are they selling like shit because of bad choices when designing the hardware? Because the ps4 is generally thought of as a well built and decently priced machine and it's selling just fine.

I would say bad choices by MS and Nintendo are killing them right now. But the extra long generation opened the door for other forms of gaming. There has been a slow down for over a year on the console front from generation fatigue. That has lead to bleeding of customers to other forms of gaming. Almost always a new generation starts just after the peak of the previous generation. This time around the new generation started after a sharp decline of the previous generation. I think that has really hurt everyone. These machines should of been out 2 years ago.

 

[Dire]

that's just it, AAA isn't the hardcore games industry. it's this bizarre chimera of lowest common denominator game design built around systems which are still too involved and have too high a barrier to entry for the true mass market.

nowadays, between the app store and early access, everyone has the option to find their own level. beyond the occasional GTA or skyrim, AAA gaming only really appeals to this odd subsection who want a mechanically casual game packaged in a very specific and very expensive way behind a $4-500 hardware paywall.

It's interesting reading this thread. This more or less completely sums up how I feel as well. It's the reason I probably won't be getting a console for this first time in more than 2 decades. Consoles are really starting to feel like some sort of odd-world where you have to pay $400 to get access to a theater where they show nothing but iterations of Independence Day, Transformers and Comic Book Movie #741 on loop. Oh, and tickets are $60.

I don't understand why the games industry is doing this. At least in Hollywood you still have quite a lot of variety. Inception was the equivalent of a AAA film no doubt, but it was fresh, innovative and a simply great movie. If EA was in the film industry we'd be on Transformers 25 by now. But to keep things fresh, pay $25 on top for a "super ticket" and you get super exclusive access to 20 minutes of content (that was ripped from the originally planned cinematic cut) after the film.

You want us to publish your film?

Does it have ROBOTS? No? Fuck off.
Does it have EXPLOSIONS? No? Fuck off.
Does it have sexy time? No? Fuck off.
With a love plot? No? Fuck off.
Does it have an intricate plot? Yes? Fuck off.
Is it directly derivative of another film that grossed in excess of $1billion? No? Fuck off.

Still here? Great let's talk!

 

[njean777]

I would say bad choices by MS and Nintendo are killing them right now. But the extra long generation opened the door for other forms of gaming. There has been a slow down for over a year on the console front from generation fatigue. That has lead to bleeding of customers to other forms of gaming. Almost always a new generation starts just after the peak of the previous generation. This time around the new generation started after a sharp decline of the previous generation. I think that has really hurt everyone. These machines should of been out 2 years ago.

Agree completely, we should be two years into the ps4 cycle. It will be interesting to see if the long wait truly did hurt them.

 

[RealityPales]

What is with all the gloom and doom? The PS4, as far as first January sales are concerned, stand among the highest - do they not? WiiU is in a slump, sure. As for the Xbox One, TitanFall and a subsequent price-drop announcement at E3 could do the trick.

 

[Boy Wander]

I'd actually say, that if the bottom was to fall out of the AAA market, Nintendo would be in the best position to thrive - if they made some sound business decisions, which they've not been great at right now.

I think the state of the market in general, not just the way their own consoles are selling probably has a lot to do with the fact that they're trying to branch out a little into this quality of life stuff. It might not work but diversification is usually not a bad thing when your primary market is contracting.

 

[FacelessSamurai]

From what I am seeing around me, PC gaming is gaining ground, while consoles are losing users. This is all, of course, from what I am seeing in my area.

From all of my friends/co-workers who all owned a PC + Console last gen (either PS3 or 360 and Wii) I am the only one so far who has bought a Xbox One and I only know one guy who has bought a PS4. Everyone else, and they were all early adopters, have decided to stick to PC gaming for the time being and are more than happy of doing so. Some of them told me they would pick one of the next gen consoles down the road, but don't see a need to do so right now.

I definitely think there is less hype about the new consoles, and the only reason why we are seeing huge sales from the get go is because there were a lot of hardcore gamers who thought last gen lasted too long and couldn't wait for the new one to start. But now that they've all bought their next-gen systems, we are left with casual gamers who might not see a big enough difference with their previous consoles or have switched to PC/Tablet/Phone gaming and it is enough to fill their needs.

So unless numbers stay high in the upcoming months, I think we might have a shrinking user base this gen, unless the big 3 do something about it.

Microsoft needs a price cut / kinect less bundle asap, and I say that being a Xbone owner and loving my kinect, but I understand the fact that a lot of people don't care/don't need one and are pissed at the fact that they have to pay an extra 100$ for something they don't want/need. Also, Microsoft needs better marketing to let people know about all the 180s they have done since E3 as they fucked up big with that. The console offers a great experience, but everything it does, even though it works really well, is available everywhere else now, so the amount of users who need everything on one box and are willing to pay for it, is smaller than they think, and that is currently hurting their bottom line. A more streamlined system for a cheaper price would do wonders for their console sales.

Sony is in a good position with a good price point as well as them pushing a bunch of free to play stuff on their console, which I think is the next big step to take. If you look at PC gaming, most of the big games are f2p, yet they are still making tons of money off of those games. LOL and DOTA2 are prime examples, Blizzard's Hearthstone is huge right now (everyone I know plays that game and are putting money into it) and Blizzard themselves said their next MMO game would have to be free to play and that WOW was the only exception left, and they are right. f2p is the current trend and seeing Sony push for those types of games on their console is huge I think as that's how you'll keep the casuals who like their tablet games on your console. Just get more heavy hitters your way, keep getting indie support, try to offer sales like steam does, and if that doesn't work, then I don't know what will!

Nintendo is in big trouble, and after the next wave of big hitters, if they don't sell more consoles, I think the only thing they will be able to do is try to support their system until the next console cycle and then play at the same level as their competitors spec wise as this is the only way they'll be relevant again. If they can keep what they have (waggle controls, separate screen on the controller) but sell those as optional accessories, I think they would probably get more 3rd party support, get better sales, but then at the same time offer extra stuff that the competitors don't have, or that they don't do as well as Nintendo does I think. If Wii U had the same multiplatform games as the competition, around the same amount of power, and would let me get an optional controller with a screen in it, support my Wii controllers (no need to buy new accessories) as well as free online, I sure as hell would consider it my main console. But right now, I only turn it on to play Nintendo's games.

I can't wait to see how the following months leading to E3 will be, and at that point I really think the whole industry needs to come up with some big changes to stay relevant.

 

[evilromero]

I'm honestly ready for something to really shake gaming up. I've grown pretty tired of games over the past few years. Sure, stuff like GTAV is brilliant but I'd invite something truly different in terms of hardware and input if it means a more immersive experience.

 

[afternoon delight]

After reading yesterday's numbers and the ensuing discussions it seems to me that the value proposition just isn't there if you're not an enthusiast.

It's slow. It's really slow right now. Both of the new consoles have nothing that is catching the eyes of my customers right now until inFamous and Titanfall. Even then? The interest is pretty low. I look at the games announced that are coming soon and its not even half a page for either PS4 or XB1. After march, there is nothing until September. It's a hard sell. Those who are picking up PS4s and XB1s seem to be doing so on the basis of the hopes of future titles. I've had customers who bought at launch and come in now disappointed that nothing is coming out.

And this is why I believe the console market will trend really low until a year or so down the line.

As a PC player, I'm happy I won't have to upgrade for so much longer as it seems the hype for advancement in the basic requirements of games was stroooong leading up to launch. And maybe, just maybe, we'll see better quality ports releasing same date with console brethren to bolster sales and development.

Spoiler

Not gonna happen, it would be too much like right.

On the downside for Dennis's, I believe most companies will stagnate on the graphics end for glorious "parity" for what, another five years? When one of these just released next gen's can't even reach 1080? Jesus christ.

 

[BigDug13]

STEAM is becoming more and more popular. Digital game sales are becoming more and more popular. Neither is reflected on NPD charts, right?

Until NPD starts tracking digital sales, YOY game sales will continue to reflect lower and lower numbers every year.

 

[Magnus]

Isn't the XBO still at least selling well enough to consider it a "secondary successful console"?

 

[Phades]

I've seen it posited, and it's certainly plausible, that that's actually what the big publishers like EA and Activision want - i.e. to squeeze out mid-tier so they're the only game, both figuratively and literally, in town...That seems a pretty impossibly high standard...

From my point of view, that is the game that they have been playing all along in order to try and create their own parrallel to the automotive industry, where only a couple of real players exist with niche offerings from outside foriegn producers that they can just drown out with marketing over time. They are nearing their endgame most likely and we might even see it during this console generation.

 

[Zok310]

Casuals blow the industry into an uncontrollable growth.

Now the casuals are migrating to mobile things should start to revert back to normal levels PS1 and PS2 generation comes to mind.

What ever dev/pubs that was heavily invested in casuals on consoles and have no plans to fully migrate to mobile are screwed.
Any dev/pubs that was just focused on hardcore should be fine. What's really happening, in my opinion, is the casual bubble on consoles have popped.

PC survived off the hardcore for the past few gens. Seems like Sony and Steam got it figured out, they most likley saw that bubble popping and never invested too much into it.

Nintendo and Microsoft on the other hand have a massive uphill battle, their console are heavy on the casual side.

I could be totally wrong, just consider this an opinion from a total stranger on GAF.

 

[InPlosion]

Whatever happens, PC will weather the storm(if indeed there's one) and survive, like always.
There's nothing to fear, expecially now, that's stronger than it has ever been.

I'm not scared, I'm happy.

 

[quest]

Isn't the XBO still at least selling well enough to consider it a "secondary successful console"?

It had nice front loaded sales but well has fallen off big time. It would not shock me to see a several sub 100k months between now and September. Now we know why gamestop is going to do a layway program for the Xbone. That should say it all if gamestop is having to resort to that to get sales up.

 

[Kimawolf]

Far less people make it on huge on mobile, name me 5 games on mobile that make nearly as much as say GTA, COD, Elder Scrolls, BF, Dota, LOL, Madden, NBA 2K, Final Fantasy, Mario and all the iterations (cart, sports, etc). I can think of four Angry Birds, COC, and Candy Crush, dragons game from japan (do not know the name). Now can people make it on mobile and not become huge? Sure they can, but the same can be said about consoles/pc. With self publishing on the consoles now just about anybody can develop for them, same with the PC.



This always happens, the first year for new consoles is always a ghost town. 360/ps3 were no exception. I remember not playing any next gen games until Gears launched and that was about a year after the 360 was available. This is nothing new, it takes about a year for new games to come out. We have evolve and Destiny coming along with Infamous and Titanfall. two of those games have last gen counter parts still (titan fall and Destiny). After this first year is when you will see more and more only ps4/one/pc games.

This is some crazy myth. It doesn't always happen. Everyone wanted a PS2. It was the talk of the news, talk of gamers, hot holiday toy/gift. People didn't think the PS1 was good enough. Everyone wanted a DS, it was the talk of news outlets like freaking E and CNN , people were going crazy for it and all the NEW interesting games coming out. To many it was the pinnacle of gaming. Everyone talked about the Wii, everyone wanted a Wii. The wii was supply constrained for years, people were paying ridiculous prices for it on ebay on a regular. It was a phenomenon the likes of which was only seen two other times in the industry, during the PS2 and DS eras.

You know what people don't want or talk about? The Wii U, the 3DS, the Vita, the 360, the PS3, the XB1 and PS4. You don't see constant news stories, MAINSTREAM news stories about any of these systems unless it's about how horrible the Wii U is doing or Vita is doing, or how mobiles will replace them all.

Even the PS4 with it's large sales has not caught on the main stream media's attention yet. I'm not making it up lol it's a fact, you don't hear about it hardly at all, on anything but dedicated gaming sites. Why? because the general public simply doesn't care. There is nothing compelling about any of the hardware out to really capture people's imaginations to make them talk about it. Again, PS4 and Xb1 are selling on the backs of the hardcore who've been salivating at the chomps for something new. to everyone else it's simply another videogame system that doesn't seem all that more advanced than what they have

 

[J-Rzez]

It's too early to tell what the health of the gaming industry, first off. Secondly, we need to see how sales run WW, and not just try to extrapolate from NPD. The only thing we can say now is that ninty and MS fucked up, as Sony is doing fine. It's not the consumer's fault that those two screwed up and made hardware they weren't interested in as much as Sony, but we will suffer a little in the form of the culling of some more developers this gen, starting with the weaker devs who put out lower quality games, and while it's a shame, it's not a loss. And once again, it's not the consumer's fault, it's the devs fault this time for releasing sub-par games.

Now, MS is worried by now about getting overran by Sony, but Xbox will survive based on that it can accept the ports that the PS4/PC will enjoy. Sony and MS were incredibly smart in this regard going with a friendly architecture. The maker that will however suffer is ninty. But they chased that casual dream once again that was luck of the straw last gen and are paying for it. They can survive, be it going 3rd party, or being absorbed into a successful platform exclusively, and to be honest, that's the best thing that could happen. They don't have to worry about hardware anymore, and can just focus on what they do best, make games.

If we lose some devs that can't cut it, can't make a game that people want, oh well. That's life, that's business, and their own fault, not the market, theirs.

All in all, we probably have one more gen of hardware to go for consoles after this one because online infrastructure won't be up to snuff for pure streaming for years as long as the people in Government let these ISPs run wild, reaming the consumer for the paltry bandwidth they supply in the first place.

It's too early to say gaming is in trouble because of like I said how devs have the PC/PS4/XB1 platform to go on. Ninty on the other hand, the writing is on the wall. Sure, Xbox maybe in trouble too via investors, but if Xbox were to go (or ninty), someone else would probably step in knowing they have their shot now. Releasing a direct 4th competitor is suicide, and upon exit of one, someone will jump in.

 

[twinturbo2]

Dev costs rising and dev time being longer is a huge problem. You can't compare 2001 to 2014.

Single succesful console can't keep the industry afloat.

Well, that, and competition is good. If we only had one automaker to buy cars from, or one cellphone to buy, where would the incentive be to innovate?

 

[quest]

It's too early to tell what the health of the gaming industry, first off. Secondly, we need to see how sales run WW, and not just try to extrapolate from NPD. The only thing we can say now is that ninty and MS fucked up, as Sony is doing fine. It's not the consumer's fault that those two screwed up and made hardware they weren't interested in as much as Sony, but we will suffer a little in the form of the culling of some more developers this gen, starting with the weaker devs who put out lower quality games, and while it's a shame, it's not a loss. And once again, it's not the consumer's fault, it's the devs fault this time for releasing sub-par games.

Now, MS is worried by now about getting overran by Sony, but Xbox will survive based on that it can accept the ports that the PS4/PC will enjoy. Sony and MS were incredibly smart in this regard going with a friendly architecture. The maker that will however suffer is ninty. But they chased that casual dream once again that was luck of the straw last gen and are paying for it. They can survive, be it going 3rd party, or being absorbed into a successful platform exclusively, and to be honest, that's the best thing that could happen. They don't have to worry about hardware anymore, and can just focus on what they do best, make games.

If we lose some devs that can't cut it, can't make a game that people want, oh well. That's life, that's business, and their own fault, not the market, theirs.

All in all, we probably have one more gen of hardware to go for consoles after this one because online infrastructure won't be up to snuff for pure streaming for years as long as the people in Government let these ISPs run wild, reaming the consumer for the paltry bandwidth they supply in the first place.

It's too early to say gaming is in trouble because of like I said how devs have the PC/PS4/XB1 platform to go on. Ninty on the other hand, the writing is on the wall. Sure, Xbox maybe in trouble too via investors, but if Xbox were to go (or ninty), someone else would probably step in knowing they have their shot now. Releasing a direct 4th competitor is suicide, and upon exit of one, someone will jump in.

No one will step in if MS and or Nintendo fall by the way side. Companies are not going to jump into a shrinking market that will cost a couple billion to jump into. Add to that the console model does not fly with stock holders these days and god like margins on phones and other devices. Unless you are talking under powered android type of consoles to play mobile games on the TV. Or steam box which will be a niche market by its self.

 

[demosthenes]

STEAM is becoming more and more popular. Digital game sales are becoming more and more popular. Neither is reflected on NPD charts, right?

Until NPD starts tracking digital sales, YOY game sales will continue to reflect lower and lower numbers every year.

I believe NPD will be less and less reliable for these reasons.

 

[Kintaro]

Whatever happens, PC will weather the storm(if indeed there's one) and survive, like always.
There's nothing to fear, expecially now, that's stronger than it has ever been.

I'm not scared, I'm happy.

In my heart of hearts, I'm right here with you.

 

[ban25]

Can an industry sustain huge titles if only one platform is even remotely successful? Hell, throw PC into that and say PS4+PC, for example. Or it could be XBO+PC, whatever your imagination leads you. Would that be enough to support the spiraling budgets? One of the reasons PC+360+PS3 was so attractive against a Wii was because they had three viable systems to port to all which would return decent sales. And even in that environment, we had an unprecedented amount of studio closures.

What would happen in an industry where we don't even have a secondary successful console and the first and only console that is successful barely hits 90 million by the end of its run?

I'd say this is a flawed assumption. Going into the previous generation, you literally had a worst case scenario of a three-way split with very different architectures across the three platforms -- even worse, the dominant platform (Wii) couldn't support ports of HD games. The previous generations effectively had a monopoly going all the way back to the NES, with SNES/Genesis being a two-way split (in a time when you could make a game for $100k and port it in a few weeks). The PS2 era was a good time because the platform was so dominant, it made things easy -- you only had to build for PS2 to hit a market of 100M+.

It wasn't *just* HD that killed so many studios last generation. The need to port across two platforms added cost early on and squeezed margins, while the inability to target the Wii audience with the same product (if at all) effectively constrained the market. Needless to say, If your business was making razor-thin margin movie tie-ins to sell to kids (THQ), then it was a bad time for you.

The PS4 doesn't need to match the PS2 in sales for this to be a very successful and profitable generation for publishers. The two platforms share their heritage with PC architecture, which makes it much easier to target PS4/XB1/PC with each title. Sony's development tools are actually decent this time around! For the first time ever in a console, we have enough memory!

Finally, Nintendo's return to type with the Wii U means they aren't going to take a bite out of the addressable market this time around, which will help with E/T-rated titles and fuel the console player base for another generation.

 

[EnVy_CaLiBeR]

Ugh. This stuff is depressing to think about. Of course the fall of consoles won't happen over night and it's too early to predict how everything will shake out, but it truly does feel like the end is near for consoles especially with all of these devices doing everything they can on top of gaming. Once controller support becomes the norm, it will be hard not to see how consoles won't die.

 

[njean777]

This is some crazy myth. It doesn't always happen. Everyone wanted a PS2. It was the talk of the news, talk of gamers, hot holiday toy/gift. People didn't think the PS1 was good enough. Everyone wanted a DS, it was the talk of news outlets like freaking E and CNN , people were going crazy for it and all the NEW interesting games coming out. To many it was the pinnacle of gaming. Everyone talked about the Wii, everyone wanted a Wii. The wii was supply constrained for years, people were paying ridiculous prices for it on ebay on a regular. It was a phenomenon the likes of which was only seen two other times in the industry, during the PS2 and DS eras.

You know what people don't want or talk about? The Wii U, the 3DS, the Vita, the 360, the PS3, the XB1 and PS4. You don't see constant news stories, MAINSTREAM news stories about any of these systems unless it's about how horrible the Wii U is doing or Vita is doing, or how mobiles will replace them all.

Even the PS4 with it's large sales has not caught on the main stream media's attention yet. I'm not making it up lol it's a fact, you don't hear about it hardly at all, on anything but dedicated gaming sites. Why? because the general public simply doesn't care. There is nothing compelling about any of the hardware out to really capture people's imaginations to make them talk about it. Again, PS4 and Xb1 are selling on the backs of the hardcore who've been salivating at the chomps for something new. to everyone else it's simply another videogame system that doesn't seem all that more advanced than what they have

The games drive sales, the first year of all the consoles does not have a major amount of games. How you are trying to argue this is weird. The ps4 wether you like it or not is still supply constrained. When I walk into gamestops and people are turned away asking for ps4's and then I am told by the people there and at Wally World that they cannot stock them because they are just not showing up then something is up. Also we both know the major media is not as important as it was even 5 years ago. Most news theses days is passed through social media. Not a great example to point to cnn or other major media as a sign of bad things to come.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

I agree that conclusions are premature, but would add that this month's data isn't the first sign of the changing landscape. In the same way there were signs of a changing landscape before the 3DS/Vita even launched, we could see consolidation and contraction occurring before the PS4/Xbone even launched.

The failure of the Wii U, the slowdown of the PS3/360, the contraction of large publishers like EA, the considerable slowdown of released titles, the closing mid range publishers and even higher range ones like THQ -- this month's data is not the first evidence.

With all that said, again, I agree that we can't reach confident conclusions yet. I'm just pointing out that evidence is more than a month's NPD.

Handhelds are a wholly separate issue, with their own circumstances. Mobile is an easy, and identifiable rival. Consoles are much different in circumstances, given that no streaming or tablet device can fully replicate them.

As for contraction? What contraction? Two of them are off to record sales, and the other two are near what, eight years old and at the end of their generation. Nintendo's failures are nintendos fault, not an industry trend. Again, see record sales for the new guys for only being three months in.

Publisher closures are due to their own faults, not the industry. THQ made bad business decisions and paid for them, same as a thousand other companies before them.

For the game release calendar being a bit sparse? Again, generational shift, we see this every time. Takes time for devs to get their new the in place, and the games out. In the mean time, we get smaller games from publishers, indies, etc.

 

[Dire]

STEAM is becoming more and more popular. Digital game sales are becoming more and more popular. Neither is reflected on NPD charts, right?

Until NPD starts tracking digital sales, YOY game sales will continue to reflect lower and lower numbers every year.

I think on here there's a sort of implicit connotation of industry meaning primarily consoles and mainstream titles. I think it goes without saying that the indie market and Steam are at their best of all time. Googling for exact Steam numbers actually revealed some pretty unexpected information. It really does seem like console gamers may, arguably must, be moving over to Steam:

October 30, 2013 - 65million active Steam accounts (source)
January 15, 2014 - 75million active Steam accounts (source)

And for musings:

May 2007 - 13million total Steam accounts (source)

I knew Steam was doing well, but there's well and there's whatever that is.

 

[Alej]

All of this makes me very happy.
PS4 with 90% indies, 10% big core exclusives will be the only winner and we will be back to a more solid and dynamic market (with variety, and less pricey games) like it was a little more than a decade ago.

We should all look at the Vita right now. It was doomed one year ago (and continue to be caput in terms of sales right now) but the line up and variety of games (indies ftw) is really stellar.

No DLC, no overly pricey games, variety... We all want to put an end to that AAA market as consumers. We will gain the most out of this.