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[Jokeropia]

The comparison is to show that 30 of the best selling games accounting for 1/3 of the sales is not something unusual.

My point is that it's not a very apt comparison since there's a significant difference between "30 of the bestselling games" and "the 30 bestselling games".

 

[Spiegel]

The point of the comparison was to show that if the 30 best selling games on a console with lots of releases (where all kind of games sell well) account for more than half of the total sales, 30 of the best selling games accounting for 1/3 of the total sales on a console with half games released is pretty normal.

 

[Koren]

Though it's more so due to developers being much more experienced now with far better tools as well as the system being pie to develop for.

Not only... There's things hidden behind the basic specs. Drawing sequentially triangles on screen and making a game can be REALLY a different matter.

I'll take a very simple example : N64 use Rambus (like PS2), and a quite early version of it. Of course, it can be pretty quick if you're doing sequencial access (like when you're computing theorical power). BUT, for random access, the latency is huge. REALLY huge. Suppose that you require a data at a random access. Due to the latency, you can wait 60 processor cycles between the moment you ask the data and the moment you get it. 59 cycles doing nothing but waiting in the worse case, for a single access. Yes, there's solutions to avoid those problems, such as small area of cache, but it's too small to solve everything.

N64 has not a chance to get close to its theoritical power in game conditions. DS can get far closer to its advertised specs. So I'm not even sure that you can really say that N64 is more powerful (although it can do things that DS cannot, such as texture filtering, which can or can not be a big issue on a small screen).

 

[Jokeropia]

I just think "30 of the bestselling games" is such a loose term that it's hard to make any solid statements about it. (Unless you defined beforehand what makes a game qualify as "one of the best selling".)

Regardless though, I don't really have any issues with the point you were trying to make.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Random bit of context. I'm frequently talking about Kirby Super Star Ultra as the most successful of the modern Kirby games, since older sales data is hard to come by. I decided to finally look for how high some of the old games went, using YSO's million seller list as the source.

GB Kirby's Dream Land: 1.72 million
GB Kirby's Dream Land 2: 1.51 million
GB Kirby's Pinball Land: 1.12 million
SNES Kirby Super Star: 1.10 million
N64 Kirby 64: 1.07 million

I think these must be shipment figures. Going by Japan-GameCharts, the last known Famitsu figure for Kirby 64 was 882K.

 

[donny2112]

SNES Kirby Super Star: 1.10 million

I think we have the Famitsu sales for that game, too, and it was well under 1 million, as well.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I think we have the Famitsu sales for that game, too, and it was well under 1 million, as well.

Going by yso themselves but in their 'by publisher' listings its just at 563,806. Must be missing something here...

 

[cvxfreak]

*checks PS2 August 2008 TOP 10*

9. Biohazard 4 (PlayStation 2 The Best) - 11,302 / 12,620 (July 2008 re-release version)

Biohazard 4 (PS2) - 454,979
Biohazard 4 (GC) - 220,799
Biohazard 4 PlayStation 2 The Best (2006) - 148,868
Biohazard 4 Wii Edition - 136,344
Biohazard 4 PlayStation 2 The Best (2008) - 12,620

TOTAL: 973,610

Almost at 1 Million! We don't even have complete numbers for the 2008 version of the PS2 Best Edition, nor do we have numbers for the Best Price Wii Edition yet. Pretty confident that after the 2008 TOP 500 comes out, we'll have Biohazard 4 above one million collectively.

 

[Link]

Wow, RE4 GC did a lot worse than I remember.

 

[cvxfreak]

Wow, RE4 GC did a lot worse than I remember.

Worst selling original Biohazard on a Nintendo platform.

It probably would have outsold Zero (400K) if they didn't announce the PS2 version early. But, gotta hand it to the PS2 to get the game closer to the sales it deserves.

 

[donny2112]

But, gotta hand it to the PS2 to get the game closer to the sales it deserves.

Which would've included any RE fans planning to pick it up for GC before it was announced for PS2 that decided to wait. From your statement that it could've outsold RE0 if it wasn't for the PS2 announcement, that would be a very significant number.

 

[Liabe Brave]

I just think "30 of the bestselling games" is such a loose term that it's hard to make any solid statements about it. (Unless you defined beforehand what makes a game qualify as "one of the best selling".)

The class is relatively arbitrary, but it wasn't made up by Spiegel or meant to be some formal thing. It was just an offhand comment by JJS, who happened to notice how much was sold by particular PSP franchises. Spiegel just pointed out that any such set of very popular games (which is what JJS was effectively looking at, though he didn't define it that way) would show a similar pattern.

 

[Fafalada]

N64 has not a chance to get close to its theoritical power in game conditions. DS can get far closer to its advertised specs.

While that may be true, on the flipside people are underestimating the complexity of DS architecture. It's an oldschool design that has more in common with Saturn then any other hw.
Especially compared to architectures that were built for easy developer access (like GC or PSP) DS hardware is something of a mess.

 

[Spiegel]

Famitsu Top Ten 02/02 - 02/08

1- PSP Tales of The World: Radiant Mythology 2 (Namco Bandai)
2- PSP PES 2009 (Konami)
3- PS2 PES 2009 (Konami)
4- PS3 Demon's Souls (SCEJ) NEW
5- NDS FFCC: Echoes of Time (Square Enix)
6- NDS Detective Conan & Kindachi (Namco Bandai) NEW
7- PSP Monster Hunter Portable 2G *best* (Capcom)
8- NDS Rythm Tengoku Gold (Nintendo)
9- WII Wii Fit (Nintendo)
10- WII Taiko no Tatsujin (Namco Bandai)

 

[schuelma]

So what are expectations for Tenchu 4 PSP? Higher than the Wii version? Significantly higher?

 

[Kenka]

Famitsu Top Ten 02/02 - 02/08

1- PSP Tales of The World: Radiant Mythology 2 (Namco Bandai)
2- PSP PES 2009 (Konami)
3- PS2 PES 2009 (Konami)
4- PS3 Demon's Souls (SCEJ) NEW
5- NDS FFCC: Echoes of Time (Square Enix)
6- NDS Detective Conan & Kindachi (Namco Bandai) NEW
7- PSP Monster Hunter Portable 2G *best* (Capcom)
8- NDS Rythm Tengoku Gold (Nintendo)
9- WII Wii Fit (Nintendo)
10- WII Taiko no Tatsujin (Namco Bandai)

Very interesting chart. Square really got its ass kicked.

 

[Durante]

1- PSP Tales of The World: Radiant Mythology 2 (Namco Bandai)

Still? Impressive even for what's probably a very slow week.

 

[Jaruru]

Famitsu Top Ten 02/02 - 02/08

1- PSP Tales of The World: Radiant Mythology 2 (Namco Bandai)
2- PSP PES 2009 (Konami)
3- PS2 PES 2009 (Konami)
4- PS3 Demon's Souls (SCEJ) NEW
5- NDS FFCC: Echoes of Time (Square Enix)
6- NDS Detective Conan & Kindachi (Namco Bandai) NEW
7- PSP Monster Hunter Portable 2G *best* (Capcom)
8- NDS Rythm Tengoku Gold (Nintendo)
9- WII Wii Fit (Nintendo)
10- WII Taiko no Tatsujin (Namco Bandai)

only 2 new titles in top 10? wait for the numbers, a slow week?

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Half the top 10 is Sony platforms? When was the last time that happened? Haven't looked at Japanese numbers in a while, PSP software sales seem a lot healthier than normal.

 

[Rolf NB]

only 2 new titles in top 10? wait for the numbers, a slow week?

For reference, day one for Demon's Souls was 23k/80% of shipment IIRC, so depending on second shipment, that place should be somewhere between 25k and 50k.

 

[Spiegel]

Sinobi:

New Releases
PS3 Demon's Souls 37k
NDS Detective Conan & Kindachi 24k
WII Another Code R 10k
PSP Enkaku Sousa 8k

Hardware
DS 51k (40k dsi, 11k dsl)
PSP 36k
Wii 21k
PS3 16k

Top Ten + numbers


1- PSP Tales of The World: Radiant Mythology 2 (Namco Bandai)
2- PSP PES 2009 (Konami)
3- PS2 PES 2009 (Konami)
4- PS3 Demon's Souls (SCEJ) NEW 37k
5- NDS FFCC: Echoes of Time (Square Enix)
6- NDS Detective Conan & Kindachi (Namco Bandai) NEW 24k
7- PSP Monster Hunter Portable 2G *best* (Capcom)
8- NDS Rythm Tengoku Gold (Nintendo)
9- WII Wii Fit (Nintendo)
10- WII Taiko no Tatsujin (Namco Bandai)

Monster Hunter 2G + best = 2.8 million

So what are expectations for Tenchu 4 PSP? Higher than the Wii version? Significantly higher?

It should sell like the previous Tenchu on psp at least (28k/30k first week) but seeing that the game is at nº 58 in the amazon.jp top 100 (yeah I know amazon is not a good indicator) it wouldn't surprise me if the game bombs as bad as the Wii version

 

[RpgN]

Sinobi:

New Releases
PS3 Demon's Souls 37k

A second shipment arrived already? Didn't the first day had like 23k, 80% of the first shipment?

 

[Stumpokapow]

Sinobi:

New Releases
WII Another Code R 10k

bombaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

5- NDS FFCC: Echoes of Time (Square Enix)

SE bomb of the generation continues.

Demon's Souls is pretty good. Very good considering profile/shipment, actually. I just think Sony should have banked more heavily on it. More marketing, bigger shipment, higher profile.

 

[wrowa]

Sinobi:
WII Another Code R 10k

Wii 21k

How low will the numbers go? Any bets?

 

[schuelma]

Wo low will the numbers go? Any bets?

Who knows? I would think they would steady at 15K or so, but if it keeps dropping then I don't know.

The thing is everything is just so down compared to last year. Heck PSP is way down.


Edit- numbers for last years 2/4-2/10:

WII - 81,737
PSP - 75,912
NDS - 60,464
PS3 - 23,985
PS2 - 11,038
360 - 3,615 |

 

[Link]

Wo low will the numbers go? Any bets?

Pretty low, considering nothing of note is coming out until at least April.

I know I've been the resident doombringer recently, but I'm genuinely worried here. Yeah, there are a few big games coming down the pipe, but there's no kind of consistent support. If things don't pick up soon, the Wii is going to end up like the PS3/GC, with crap sales as the norm, a sales spike with each big release, then back to crap.

 

[schuelma]

Yeah, there are a few big games coming down the pipe, but there's no kind of consistent support. If things don't pick up soon, the Wii is going to end up like the PS3/GC, with crap sales as the norm, a sales spike with each big release, then back to crap.

If Nintendo is telling the truth about its 2009 releases, there should be enough consistency. If Wii Sports Resort doesn't spur interest then I will share your doomsaying, but I maintain that it is far too early, especially when other consoles are dipping as well.

 

[AnimeTheme]

If Nintendo is telling the truth about its 2009 releases, there should be enough consistency. If Wii Sports Resort doesn't spur interest then I will share your doomsaying, but I maintain that it is far too early, especially when other consoles are dipping as well.

Comparatively speaking, PS3 does better than others. The gap between Wii and PS3 has been closing after the holidays.

I wonder if streams will cross again. I can't remember any significant release for Wii in the near future, but for PS3, we have SF4, RGG3, RE5, and then FF7AC complete.

 

[Moor-Angol]

If Nintendo is telling the truth about its 2009 releases, there should be enough consistency. If Wii Sports Resort doesn't spur interest then I will share your doomsaying, but I maintain that it is far too early, especially when other consoles are dipping as well.

the problem is Wii line-up for this spring is quitely crap, no games from Nintendo announced... where is Sin & Punishment 2 ? They just sell Gamecube remakes... it's normal people don't buy a Wii if Nintendo is offering a game from 8 years ago (Pikmin) and one from 5 years ago (Mario Tennis).
The last game released from EAD is Animal Crossing, mid november, 3 months ago...

 

[schuelma]

I wonder if streams will cross again. I can't remember any significant release for Wii in the near future, but for PS3, we have SF4, RGG3, RE5, and then FF7AC complete.

I fully expect streams to cross when RGG3 and RE5 release. The long term issue I see is that aside from the Final Fantasy stuff, after RE5 there is literally nothing announced for PS3 of note. I'm sure more stuff is coming, but as of now the potential 2009 releases after March is FF13 and that's it.

 

[schuelma]

the problem is Wii line-up for this spring is quitely crap, no games from Nintendo announced... where is Sin & Punishment 2 ? They just sell Gamecube remakes... it's normal people don't buy a Wii if Nintendo is offering a game from 8 years ago (Pikmin) and one from 5 years ago (Mario Tennis).
The last game released from EAD is Animal Crossing, mid november, 3 months ago...

Agree completely. I imagine they somewhat expected AC/Wii Music to continue holiday momentum, but in hindsight that was a huge mistake.

 

[Spiegel]

Psp is way down this year because last year it was doing absurdly high numbers without having games released.

Hardware and software are selling fine this year. Of course the hardware could be doing better and that's why there are bundles and new colors announced at the end of February and March.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Psp is way down this year because last year it was doing absurdly high numbers without having games released.

This year is doing fine in hardware and software.

So is the DS doing well or poorly right now? I would read it as doing poorly. I'd read the PSP as doing poorly. I'd read EVERYTHING as doing poorly right now. (Hardware-wise)

 

[wrowa]

If Nintendo is telling the truth about its 2009 releases, there should be enough consistency. If Wii Sports Resort doesn't spur interest then I will share your doomsaying, but I maintain that it is far too early, especially when other consoles are dipping as well.

I'm skeptical about that. Is Wii MotionPlus enough to regain the interest in Wii? I assume, the Wii Sports crowd already owns a Wii, that's why it's hard for me to see a huge bumb because of Wii Sports Resort.

 

[schuelma]

Psp is way down this year because last year it was doing absurdly high numbers without having games released.
.

Ok. Should I say Wii is doing fine because Wii Fit and Smash Brothers weren't just released? It is what it is. Wii is selling horribly, PSP is selling better but still not that good. And I'd add that PSP doesn't have Monster Hunter coming up this year to maintain momentum.

 

[Spiegel]

So is the DS doing well or poorly right now? I would read it as doing poorly. I'd read the PSP as doing poorly. I'd read EVERYTHING as doing poorly right now.

I also think the ds is doing fine (better than the psp).

Selling 35-45k consoles in a normal week is doing fine For me

Ok. Should I say Wii is doing fine because Wii Fit and Smash Brothers weren't just released? It is what it is. Wii is selling horribly, PSP is selling better but still not that good. And I'd add that PSP doesn't have Monster Hunter coming up this year to maintain momentum.

No, Wii would be doing fine if it was selling in the 30k range and not in the low 20k's.

Psp doesn't have MH This year but it has a constant stream of games and colors to maintain the sales.

 

[schuelma]

I'm skeptical about that. Is Wii MotionPlus enough to regain the interest in Wii? I assume, the Wii Sports crowd already owns a Wii, that's why it's hard for me to see a huge bumb because of Wii Sports Resort.

It might not be a sure thing, but its a sequel to the #1 selling console game this gen and has a new addition that could potentially spur more interest amongst the crowd that went crazy for Wii Fit.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I also think the ds is doing fine (better than the psp).

Selling 35-45k consoles in a normal week is doing fine For me

Oh, okay.

I wasn't trying to trick you or anything, just trying to get an approximation for how you were using the term. I tend to look at hardware sales through a post-DS lens where 40k a week is a bad thing for the DS.

To me, "good" would be 50-70k for either handheld. I'd maybe cut the PSP a little bit of a break in that 50k would definitely be good with the PSP, I might go either way on that being good for the DS.

 

[schuelma]

To me, "good" would be 50-70k for either handheld. I'd maybe cut the PSP a little bit of a break in that 50k would definitely be good with the PSP, I might go either way on that being good for the DS.

Let me clarify a bit on my end- if I thought PSP was going to be doing 35K a week the whole year I would agree that's solid. But this early it seems likely that numbers will continue to go down.

 

[Jokeropia]

The class is relatively arbitrary, but it wasn't made up by Spiegel or meant to be some formal thing. It was just an offhand comment by JJS, who happened to notice how much was sold by particular PSP franchises. Spiegel just pointed out that any such set of very popular games (which is what JJS was effectively looking at, though he didn't define it that way) would show a similar pattern.

Not that this discussion matters, but by stating that it is effectively what JJS was looking at, you've just replaced "30 of the best selling games" with the equally loose term "set of very popular games".

 

[schuelma]

No, Wii would be doing fine if it was selling in the 30k range and not in the low 20k's.
.

I just disagree that things are static. If Wii did 30K this week I would still think Wii hardware sales are disappointing, since going off of last year sales continue to decrease in the months ahead. It's still on a downward trend.

I think PSP sales so far are healthier than Wii, but I still believe its kind of worrysome compared to last year.

 

[swerve]

I wonder if Nintendo will reconsider soon its 'no information on forthcoming titles' policy.

Whilst I understand the advantages of such a strategy, I don't think they forecasted the side-effect of leaving the platform without a clear purpose when the *currently available* games aren't selling like hot-cakes.

Their 'play it close to the chest' plan only works when hardware sales don't need a lift from the promise of something new.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Going by hardware numbers, it must be the special olympics year. Good news? I'd say Team ICO is due for a game then!

 

[Spiegel]

I just disagree that things are static. If Wii did 30K this week I would still think Wii hardware sales are disappointing, since going off of last year sales continue to decrease in the months ahead. It's still on a downward trend.

I think PSP sales so far are healthier than Wii, but I still believe its kind of worrysome compared to last year.

Yeah, I agree with you but I think the difference is that the psp has games (Idolmaster, Dynasty Warriors: Multi Raid, Gundam: Bonds of War,...) and new colors (red, blue, green, yellow) to maintain the sales in the mid-30k at least in February/March.

But I'm "worried" too (not really worried about this) and that's why I said some weeks ago that the psp needs Monster Hunter/Gran Turismo/Big games this year.

Oh, okay.

I wasn't trying to trick you or anything, just trying to get an approximation for how you were using the term. I tend to look at hardware sales through a post-DS lens where 40k a week is a bad thing for the DS.

To me, "good" would be 50-70k for either handheld. I'd maybe cut the PSP a little bit of a break in that 50k would definitely be good with the PSP, I might go either way on that being good for the DS.

Yeah, you are right.

Psp and ds should also be doing better than this after the new redesigns.

 

[Kingsora]

Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep is coming this year for PSP and will probably be quite big ^^

 

[Regulus Tera]

Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep is coming this year for PSP and will probably be quite big ^^

I thought we only had a release date for Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 Days.

 

[Gaborn]

Honestly, I don't see the problem for Nintendo. Yes the Wii's sales are lower than you would hope, but it's still comfortably beating the PS3, it's closest console competitor week by week and overall. Added to that continuing strength in the US and from what little we know of Europe and I don't think Nintendo is losing too much sleep over a slump in Japan. Nintendo shouldn't really start to worry unless either Europe or the US also starts seeing a sharp decline in demand. I mean, you can pick an arbitrary number in Japan and say the Wii should be above that line... but if it's not, so what? If the PS3 were doing fantastically above expectations it'd be one thing but people are worried because it's not gaining ground as MUCH as it was week to week last year?

 

[botticus]

Honestly, I don't see the problem for Nintendo. Yes the Wii's sales are lower than you would hope, but it's still comfortably beating the PS3, it's closest console competitor week by week and overall.

I tend to think a 5k weekly advantage is as insignificant as the 360 sales. It's not as if the Wii is doomed, but doing slightly better than a console that is derided as following the GameCube is not what NCL would like, I'm sure.

 

[Jaruru]

the problem is Wii line-up for this spring is quitely crap, no games from Nintendo announced... where is Sin & Punishment 2 ? They just sell Gamecube remakes... it's normal people don't buy a Wii if Nintendo is offering a game from 8 years ago (Pikmin) and one from 5 years ago (Mario Tennis).
The last game released from EAD is Animal Crossing, mid november, 3 months ago...

Nintendo, what is holding you back??? I truly believe they have enough budget to dev whatever gamesss they want to. but no big title release for 3+ months is letting us down. :s

 

[Gaborn]

I tend to think a 5k weekly advantage is as insignificant as the 360 sales. It's not as if the Wii is doomed, but doing slightly better than a console that is derided as following the GameCube is not what NCL would like, I'm sure.

Eh, that's true, I just think Nintendo has a more global picture. They're doing "ok" in Japan compared to the competition, could be better but is it worth diverting the resources to Japan in terms of advertising, more japan-centric games, new colors or a price drop, or should they dismiss this as a small slump in an otherwise burgeoning market for them and continue to ship every spare unit they have to the US and Europe? Because I think in that sense this downturn is a good thing for them - it allows them to devote their full attention to their two strongest regions currently.