Media Create Sales: 09/22 - 09/28

Apr 17, 2005
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Liabe Brave said:
To me, this just seems to follow from the logic of the situation. Medium-sized game releases during the next month could throw this off. Maybe Kurosaki Ichigo could post the upcoming 360 schedule?
Sure, 5-week-ahead full lineup, medium-sized, at least, releases bolded:
10/09 Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock
10/16 FaceBreaker
10/16 Guitar Hero: Aerosmith on Tour
10/16 Guitar Hero: Aerosmith on Tour (w/Guitar)
10/23 Gundam Musou International (Platinum Collection)
10/23 NBA Live 09
10/30 Brothers In Arms Hell's Highway
10/30 Fracture
10/30 Grand Theft Auto IV
11/06 Ace Combat 6: Kaihou e no Senka (Platinum Collection)
11/06 Assassin's Creed (Platinum Collection)
11/06 Beautiful Katamari Damacy (Platinum Collection)
11/06 Lost Odyssey (Platinum Collection)
11/06 Project Gotham Racing 4 (Platinum Collection)

Other than the two bolded, which btw BiA is 1-month-exclusive, there's just a lot of budget re-releases. Christmas-Year End combo is looking far better:

11/13 is empty, 11/20 being The Last Remnant week with its bundle, 11/27 with WE2009, 12/04 with Gundam Musou 2, Fallout 3 and Saints Row 2, 12/11 with Banjo, Lego Indy and Mirrors Edge, 12/18 with Fable, Lego Batman, NFS, Prince of Persia and 12/25 with DoDonPachi and Alone in the Dark.
 

Jtyettis

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Jan 18, 2007
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Liabe Brave said:
I think you may need to tighten up your grammar, logic, or both.
:lol

Right, I think not. Logic nor grammar has nothing to do with correcting one of the worst performing stocks I have listed. Save Google and Apple there is no other that comes even close.
 

jimbo

Banned
Jan 9, 2005
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donny2112 said:
I don't mind jumping in. I think that once the shortage issue is cleared up, it'll drop back to pre-Vesperia numbers (i.e. ~5K per week) until TLR. From there it might eventually drop back below 10K for a few weeks before the New Year's buying season starts. Post-New Year will be the real test for 360, though. FFXIII demo with Advent Children in March potentially could severely undercut any remaining 360 momentum, but it'll still be interesting to watch, either way. :)

That will not affect 360's momentum just like the 360 is not affecting the PS3's. That will only affect the PS3's momentum. The 360 will continue to sell at that time based on its own merits and so will the PS3.

I also don't see the 360 going back to pre-ToV numbers because it's had a price drop. It was doing 5k back then at the old price. It will do more at a lower price.
 

jimbo

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Jan 9, 2005
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Kurosaki Ichigo said:
11/13 is empty, 11/20 being The Last Remnant week with its bundle, 11/27 with WE2009, 12/04 with Gundam Musou 2, Fallout 3 and Saints Row 2, 12/11 with Banjo, Lego Indy and Mirrors Edge, 12/18 with Fable, Lego Batman, NFS, Prince of Persia and 12/25 with DoDonPachi and Alone in the Dark.
Are those official dates for Fable and Banjo? And does anyone know if the original Fable got released for the Xbox in Japan?
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
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JoshuaJSlone said:
At first this one confused me, because I was sure I'd already seen sales data for it. However, some checking around indicates that they released the guitar bundle for the game in late July, but for some reason the standalone only now.
Did they only sell the Guitar Hero 3 bundle with the guitar in Japan, or was Guitar Hero 2 released there as well? I cant find GH2 on Amazon.co.jp though (i know it is an older game, so it might have been removed though). If they didnt release Guitar Hero 2 in Japan and only the GH3 guitar bundle, wouldnt that mean that basicly everyone that owns a GH3 guitar will also own GH3 (the game)?

I guess they release a standalone version of Guitar Hero 3 since the upcomming release of Guitar Hero Aerosmith (i assume that this will be released as a bundle with a guitar?), but if that is the reason, then i dont understand why they release the standalone version of GH3 1 week before the GH Aerosmith release. I guess that you can use the Xbox 360 controller to play Guitar Hero 3, but still, i dont think too many people want to do that, but who knows :)

EDIT: Or maybe you can buy a standalone GH3 guitar now, or that some 3. party guitar(s) excist?


jimbo said:
Are those official dates for Fable and Banjo? And does anyone know if the original Fable got released for the Xbox in Japan?
According to Joshua's website, Fable 1 for Xbox was released at the 17th of March in 2005.

http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php?gameid=2659

:)
 
jimbo said:
I also don't see the 360 going back to pre-ToV numbers because it's had a price drop. It was doing 5k back then at the old price. It will do more at a lower price.
It's not like 5K was a long-proven norm. 5K happened a few times shortly prior to ToV on one of the trackers, but 1-3K is still the most common range for 2008.

test_account said:
Did they only sell the Guitar Hero 3 bundle with the guitar in Japan, or was Guitar Hero 2 released there as well? I cant find GH2 on Amazon.co.jp though (i know it is an older game, so it might have been removed though). If they didnt release Guitar Hero 2 in Japan and only the GH3 guitar bundle, wouldnt that mean that basicly everyone that owns a GH3 guitar will also own GH3 (the game)?
Checking release info at GameFAQs, it does appear GH3 was the first X360 Guitar Hero to release. This makes the months-later release of the standalone game make sense rather than be stranger, though; Guitar Hero Aerosmith will have its own guitar bundle, so it will then be possible to have the guitar without GH3. Well, other than the fact that standalone GH3 seems to be releasing a week before the Aerosmith bundle?
 

jimbo

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Jan 9, 2005
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JoshuaJSlone said:
It's not like 5K was a long-proven norm. 5K happened a few times shortly prior to ToV on one of the trackers, but 1-3K is still the most common range for 2008.
No, but it showed a consistent increase since the first drop after the release of Gundam leading up to that 5k week. Some credit those sales to the impending release of ToV but they could have also simply just been a steady overall increase. In which case what happened in early 2008 doesn't matter anyway. And it certainly won't matter post-price drop.
 

test_account

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Mar 22, 2007
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JoshuaJSlone said:
Checking release info at GameFAQs, it does appear GH3 was the first X360 Guitar Hero to release. This makes the months-later release of the standalone game make sense rather than be stranger, though; Guitar Hero Aerosmith will have its own guitar bundle, so it will then be possible to have the guitar without GH3. Well, other than the fact that standalone GH3 seems to be releasing a week before the Aerosmith bundle?
Ok, thanks for the info! :) Ye, that is what i think is wierd as well, why release the standalone GH3 game 1 week before the Aerosmith bundle if there arent any standalone Guitar Hero guitars to be bought at this moment?
 

donny2112

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Apr 18, 2005
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jimbo said:
That will not affect 360's momentum just like the 360 is not affecting the PS3's.
I have a suspicion that the majority of current 360 buyers already have a PS3. They might've bought it for RPGs that they are now realizing are on 360 instead. As such, when the FFXIII demo comes, they won't need to buy a 360 at that time, so I do think it has a strong potential to plummet the 360 (from whatever it is selling normally at the time) for at least a few weeks.

jimbo said:
I also don't see the 360 going back to pre-ToV numbers because it's had a price drop. It was doing 5k back then at the old price. It will do more at a lower price.
Price drops for losing systems cause temporary bumps, and then they go back to their previous levels. We've seen this before in previous generations. Only games can cause a sustaining increase, and RPGs are notoriously short-legged.

test_account said:
According to Joshua's website, Fable 1 for Xbox was released at the 17th of March in 2005.

http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php?gameid=2659

:)
It eventually got to ~14K.
 

PantherLotus

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Jul 4, 2006
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Scotch said:
Panther, please don't take this the wrong way cause I appreciate the effort you put into this each week, but why do your thumbnails link to your website and not the pictures themselves? Kinda annoying this way.
Thanks for the feedback.

The intention is absolutely not to drive traffic (although I acknowledge that is a result), but to create an ease of use for the reader. To combat the irritation of having to click on each thumb to see the bigger version, each thumb links to a single post over at LC. Each chart under the appropriate heading (software/hardware/consoles/handhelds) is completely visible and legible within that single post. If further clarity is needed, each of those links to an even bigger version. You'll notice on the line graphs, I put the last week's data in big, bold, and black letters so further clicking isn't needed.

The result is 3-4 links rather than 20-25, which is much easier for everyone. It allows me to put all related charts into a single post over at LC without spamming the thread.

Full disclosure: Yes, I would like to leverage the idea someday into something that could sustain itself or even potentially make "beer money" someday. The truth is that Google is telling me I've made $3.79 in 3 months (that's about 4 cents per hour of work). Right now, it's a hobby with potential. At least that's what I tell my wife, who wants to know why I spend 4 hours each on Wednesdays and Thursdays looking at videogame sales in Japan. ;)

If anybody else would like to comment on this post, the format of the OP, or my charts, please PM me or email me at LC, rather than spamming this thread.
 

jimbo

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Jan 9, 2005
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donny2112 said:
I have a suspicion that the majority of current 360 buyers already have a PS3. They might've bought it for RPGs that they are now realizing are on 360 instead. As such, when the FFXIII demo comes, they won't need to buy a 360 at that time, so I do think it has a strong potential to plummet the 360 (from whatever it is selling normally at the time) for at least a few weeks.



Price drops for losing systems cause temporary bumps, and then they go back to their previous levels. We've seen this before in previous generations. Only games can cause a sustaining increase, and RPGs are notoriously short-legged.



It eventually got to ~14K.
Whatever it is they are finding appealing and buy worthy on the 360 right now will not dissappear just because a demo of FFXIII comes out for the PS3. They are buying it because it has the games they want to play and believe it's worth the money. Unless the PS3 gets to the same price point and has the SAME games, that won't change. A 2 hour demo of one game, even if it is FFXIII is not an alternative to all of the current 360 selling points.

FFXIII demo will help the PS3, no doubt, but people will still want to play what the 360 has to offer and the PS3 will probably still be more expensive at that time. Once again, it will be good for the PS3, and its sales will skyrocket but it shouldn't affect the 360.


I agree with you but this is obviously a combination of price drops AND games on a console that was GAINING momentum while its competitors were losing(completely different scenario from what you are talking about). Which is why it will be sustainable. The 360 will continue to provide the games, at regular intervals which will continue to drive momentum. The Last Remnant is next, followed by SO4(probably within 6 months of each other). That's a bigger gap than you would ideally want but let's not forget it also has December in between which is always a big month for sales, and it does have Fable, Banjo, and Fallout too. One of those may just stick in Japan. We don't know. Plus Winning Eleven, Rockband/Guitar Hero, GTA4, Gundam Musou 2 which while multiplatform titles, they will be available on the much cheaper 360. We are only considering JRPG's because that's the only thing thats worked for the 360 in Japan so far. But it doesn't mean some other game can't also end up a system pusher.

This will be the biggest holiday for the 360 in Japan it has ever had.
 

jimbo

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Jan 9, 2005
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PantherLotus said:
how big will it be jimbo?
(Oct + Nov+ Dec) Over 200k

Like I said 2 weeks ago, an average of 12k per week is pretty conservative from ToV to end of the year.
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Oct 24, 2007
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So does anyone think that Platinum has a shot at beating FR/LG and Yellow and possibly going the full distance to 10 million WW like those two games?
 

donny2112

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Apr 18, 2005
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PantherLotus said:
The intention is absolutely not to drive traffic (although I acknowledge that is a result), but to create an ease of use for the reader. To combat the irritation of having to click on each thumb to see the bigger version, each thumb links to a single post over at LC. Each chart under the appropriate heading (software/hardware/consoles/handhelds) is completely visible and legible within that single post. If further clarity is needed, each of those links to an even bigger version.
If your intention is "ease of use for the reader," what you explained makes no sense. If someone wants a bigger version of a picture, which 99%+ of the people clicking on the smaller versions do, they now have to click once on the picture they want, re-find the picture they actually want in a blog post, and click on it again. If you want to provide "ease of use for the reader," you should link the full version of the pictures to the smaller versions and have a separate link to your blog post for if people want to read the full writeup.

test_account said:
Why isnt it updated to 14k by the way?
I don't know. What JoshuaJSlone has is the first week total. There was an Xbox specific updated Famitsu list released for the end of 2005, as well.
 

BishopLamont

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Apr 22, 2007
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Clicking on thumbnail > full picture. Linking to the blog makes no sense since we have to find the picture again.
 

jimbo

Banned
Jan 9, 2005
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donny2112 said:
If your intention is "ease of use for the reader," what you explained makes no sense. If someone wants a bigger version of a picture, which 99%+ of the people clicking on the smaller versions do, they now have to click once on the picture they want, re-find the picture they actually want in a blog post, and click on it again. If you want to provide "ease of use for the reader," you should link the full version of the pictures to the smaller versions and have a separate link to your blog post for if people want to read the full writeup.
I agree. It is a pain in the ass to re-search for them.
 

apujanata

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Jun 14, 2004
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donny2112 said:
If your intention is "ease of use for the reader," what you explained makes no sense. If someone wants a bigger version of a picture, which 99%+ of the people clicking on the smaller versions do, they now have to click once on the picture they want, re-find the picture they actually want in a blog post, and click on it again. If you want to provide "ease of use for the reader," you should link the full version of the pictures to the smaller versions and have a separate link to your blog post for if people want to read the full writeup.



I don't know. What JoshuaJSlone has is the first week total. There was an Xbox specific updated Famitsu list released for the end of 2005, as well.
Pantherlotus said:
The result is 3-4 links rather than 20-25, which is much easier for everyone. It allows me to put all related charts into a single post over at LC without spamming the thread.
What if it is ease of use for PL, not ease of use for reader ? Instead of PL spending 20-30 minutes for making 20-25 links (my own estimate), maybe we can give him some leniency and allow him to make of 3-4 links that might take 5 minutes (again, my own estimate).
 

jimbo

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Jan 9, 2005
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apujanata said:
What if it is ease of use for PL, not ease of use for reader ? Instead of PL spending 20-30 minutes for making 20-25 links (my own estimate), maybe we can give him some leniency and allow him to make of 3-4 links that might take 5 minutes (again, my own estimate).
I thought about too. One way to fix it would be to have a separate page that hosts all pictures/charts, in full-size one below/next to the other. Or better yet three pages, hardware console, hardware handhelds, software charts. Only a little more work on his part.(just the initial set-up really)

Then you can just scroll down to the chart(and its likely most people will want to check out more than just one chart anyway). If you keep the same order in the OP, and on that page, every week, it would be an easy way for everyone to get used to it .
 

PantherLotus

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Jul 4, 2006
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I think some of you are being a little assumptive (and rude) with your expectations. I made it clear what I am able to do, and I know the enjoyment that one may gain from my content is greater than the irritation of a single click. If the value isn't there your solution is simple.

Again, please send all comments about my work as it relates to your experience to me personally instead of wasting everybody else's time by spamming this thread on how you think I could contribute more to your enjoyment.
 

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
Jan 11, 2005
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PantherLotus said:
I think some of you are being a little assumptive (and rude) with your expectations. I made it clear what I am able to do, and I know the enjoyment that one may gain from my content is greater than the irritation of a single click. If the value isn't there your solution is simple.

Again, please send all comments about my work as it relates to your experience to me personally instead of wasting everybody else's time by spamming this thread on how you think I could contribute more to your enjoyment.
I think you should come to my house and hand-draw the charts for me.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Jul 4, 2006
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^ :lol :lol

jimbo said:
(Oct + Nov+ Dec) Over 200k

Like I said 2 weeks ago, an average of 12k per week is pretty conservative from ToV to end of the year.

On topic:
jimbo -- I think you're probably off on your prediction by about 50k-100k. I would estimate most generously that the 360 will average 7-9k for the next 12-14 weeks, putting it around 100-125k for OCT/NOV/DEC. I think I mistook what you suggested, but 12k for 12 weeks is only 144k...
 

donny2112

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Apr 18, 2005
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PantherLotus said:
I made it clear what I am able to do,
You said you were doing it to provide "ease of use for the reader," but what you're doing is not providing "ease of use for the reader." If you really meant "ease of use" for yourself, just say that. To claim that doing the charts' links that way is to make it easier for the reader is completely misleading.

PantherLotus said:
If the value isn't there your solution is simple.
The first graph I was really interested in was the Fire Emblem one back in August, so you can imagine my surprise when I clicked on it expecting a larger picture only to be funneled to your site instead. I think I might've clicked on your graphs a few times since then with equal bewilderment, so, yeah, my solution has been to just not click on your graphs.

Just to be clear, I'm fine with continuing to not click on your graphs. My issue was you saying that linking to your site through your graphs was somehow for the "ease of use for the reader." :lol
 

jimbo

Banned
Jan 9, 2005
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PantherLotus said:
^ :lol :lol




On topic:
jimbo -- I think you're probably off on your prediction by about 50k-100k. I would estimate most generously that the 360 will average 7-9k for the next 12-14 weeks, putting it around 100-125k for OCT/NOV/DEC. I think I mistook what you suggested, but 12k for 12 weeks is only 144k...
Yes it is. Like I have said a thousand times before my predictions for the 360 have always been extremely conservative in Japan for the long term. In other words when I make them, I always take the WORST possible scenario with the expectation that the 360 WILL beat my predictions. And the 360 has always beat my personal predictions. That's why I think it will do over 200k. But I will STAND by 12k per week average from ToV.

What I am guessing is. 6-11k for October. 10-15k for Nov(TLR spike included). And 20k-30k for Dec. The break down is this

Oct 5 weeks
Nov 4 weeks
Dec 4 weeks(or 5 if you go until Jan 4th and count that week towards 08).

If you do the math it comes to 150k to 235k begining now.

I just said over 200k to keep things simple. And part of it reaching that 200k+ relies heavily on at least ONE big spike due to a game release before the end of the year. TLR has that potential. If the game sucks or is unpopular, it will put a damper on its momentum unless some other game between now and the end of the year steps up. So TLR will have a huge impact on which end of the spectrum it will fall under. I just believe there has to be at least ONE freaking popular game between now and the 360 before the end of the year. It would be a major failure on MS's part if that doesn't happen. They WILL have SOMETHING to market though.

If you take into consideration that last December 08/January 09 week it will make the numbers that much more reachable.

I think 7-9k per week is underestimating it because it's on schedule to do that in October(unless you still believe it will go down to 3k numbers at some point in Oct), and sales WILL be higher in Nov and December. Always have been always will be.

Last week's drop was from 28k to 14k or 50%. This week's drop was from 14k to 12k or 16%. Next week's drop should be about the same or lower.


Note:
This is not taking into consideration shortages.
 

BishopLamont

Banned
Apr 22, 2007
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cvxfreak said:
Geez, no amount of arguing in the world can change the numbers that will eventually hit. Why not just wait and see how things go?
Jimbo's been waiting like forever for this. It's his time to shine, let him have his 5 minutes of fame.
 

jimbo

Banned
Jan 9, 2005
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cvxfreak said:
Geez, no amount of arguing in the world can change the numbers that will eventually hit. Why not just wait and see how things go?
:lol Good one.

Wait.....you are being serious? What fun would that be?

BishopLamont said:
Jimbo's been waiting like forever for this. It's his time to shine, let him have his 5 minutes of fame.
2 months and counting now...it will only be fun until everyone comes around. Then I'll have to find something else to argue about.

We'll find something though, I am sure.
 

PantherLotus

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Jul 4, 2006
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Quality analysis, jimbo. I think you're wrong, but I think you're going about it the right way at least. Here goes:

Here's what I have for # of weeks:
(each is the first day of the MC week)

09/29/08
10/06/08
10/13/08
10/20/08
10/27/08
11/03/08
11/10/08
11/17/08
11/24/08
12/01/08
12/08/08
12/15/08
12/22/08
12/29/08

That's 14 weeks with a couple days on each end thrown in for completeness. So in this discussion that's what I'll be working with.

Yes it is. Like I have said a thousand times before my predictions for the 360 have always been extremely conservative in Japan for the long term. In other words when I make them, I always take the WORST possible scenario with the expectation that the 360 WILL beat my predictions. And the 360 has always beat my personal predictions. That's why I think it will do over 200k. But I will STAND by 12k per week average from ToV.

What I am guessing is. 6-11k for October. 10-15k for Nov(TLR spike included). And 20k-30k for Dec. (snip)

If you do the math it comes to 150k to 235k beginning now.


I just said over 200k to keep things simple. And part of it reaching that 200k+ relies heavily on at least ONE big spike due to a game release before the end of the year. TLR has that potential. If the game sucks or is unpopular, it will put a damper on its momentum unless some other game between now and the end of the year steps up. So TLR will have a huge impact on which end of the spectrum it will fall under. I just believe there has to be at least ONE freaking popular game between now and the 360 before the end of the year. It would be a major failure on MS's part if that doesn't happen. They WILL have SOMETHING to market though.
For accuracy purposes:
Oct (6k-11k) x 5 weeks = 30k-55k
Nov (10k-15k) x 4 weeks = 40k-60k
Dec (20k-30k) x 5 weeks = 100k-150k
=========================
(12.14k - 18.9k) x 14 weeks = 170k - 265k

Not the 150k - 235k that you suggested in the next sentence. Depending on what you meant:

265k/14 weeks = 18.9k / week.
235k/14 weeks = 14.68k / week.
170k/14 weeks = 12.14k / week.
150k/14 weeks = 10.7k / week.

Which one did you mean? That's a pretty healthy range to shoot at man! :) Here's what your max prediction for this year looks like against last:



You see why that's ridiculous, right?

If you take into consideration that last December 08/January 09 week it will make the numbers that much more reachable.

I think 7-9k per week is underestimating it because it's on schedule to do that in October(unless you still believe it will go down to 3k numbers at some point in Oct), and sales WILL be higher in Nov and December. Always have been always will be.
I think there's probably our point of contention. Here are the numbers from last year for the 360 (also viewable as the dark green line in the above graph):

10/01/07 1,547
10/08/07 6,161
10/15/07 3,011
10/22/07 3,718
10/29/07 17,673
11/05/07 5,817
11/12/07 6,525
11/19/07 7,117
11/26/07 6,632
12/03/07 8,876
12/10/07 8,561
12/17/07 7,908
12/24/07 8,304
=============
92k / 14 weeks = 6.57k / week. -- With one major spike and a 2x-3x the summer average for this time period.

I contend that this year will be nearly identical to that of last, with perhaps a 15-22k unit gain at most. I expect the 360 to drop 5k-8k over the next 6/7 weeks until TLR releases, and for that week to be around 18k and for the year to finish out around 10k. Here's the weekly outlook for clarity:

09/29/08 7,000
10/06/08 6,000
10/13/08 5,000
10/20/08 5,000
10/27/08 6,000
11/03/08 7,000
11/10/08 7,000
11/17/08 18,000 <<---TLR launches 11/20/08
11/24/08 10,000
12/01/08 10,000
12/08/08 10,000
12/15/08 10,000
12/22/08 10,000
12/29/08 10,000
==============
14 Weeks / 121,000

I would give a +/- 10k error and say somewhere between 110-130k is a completely appropriate estimation.

What you're suggesting ("above 200k" over the next 14 weeks) is nearly a 200% increase in YOY values for the same exact time period. I know you stand by your prediction, but I'd like you to review the numbers both in your post and in this one before you commit to that again. It's a pretty bold statement, I'll give you that much.

Last week's drop was from 28k to 14k or 50%. This week's drop was from 14k to 12k or 16%. Next week's drop should be about the same or lower.

Note:
This is not taking into consideration shortages.
My projection allows for shortages and you can't use that as an excuse for making wildly inaccurate projections. I think you're vastly overestimating the importance of TLR (and its impact). I think you are shockingly wrong about December (20k-30k per week?!). I think you're not looking at least year's results for comparison, and I think that you're calculating returns to the mean incorrectly. And I think you should make another prediction based in reality.
 

jimbo

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Jan 9, 2005
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On The Last Remnant's potential of being a "big" selling title.

First:I know Amazon.jp is not an indicator of how big a game will be and how it is viewed by some of you in here.

But I do believe it is an indicator of whether or not a game will have an above average first week sales. In other words it can predict spikes. I have tracked it on two different occasions, ES and Ace Combat 6, and games that have maintained a top 25 status for more than 2 months prior to their release, have had "big" first week numbers and inscread hardware sales by a noticeable amount. In contrast, complete bombs like Viva Pinata only managed top 25 status the week prior to and leading up to its release.

Having said that, The Last Remnant has been on there at or above #15 consistently for about 2 months now and it won't come out until the end of Nov. It's doing better than Ace Combat 6(which was on there longer than ES) as far as time length and position.

Fallout 3 is also there and has been for a couple of weeks and we are more than 2 months away. Fable 2 as well, although I don't know if this is the first week Amazon.jp has had it for pre-order. First weeks do not count, as some games tend to pop up when they are first available but shortly fall off and don't come back until release week.

Note: "Big", of course, means "big for the 360."

Edit: Also for the PS3, White Knight Story is in the top 10 and won't come out until 12/25. And GTA4 has been on there for a few weeks now for both consoles(not consistently though in the top 25), with the PS3 version usually placing 10-15 spots higher.
 

jimbo

Banned
Jan 9, 2005
2,864
0
0
PantherLotus said:
For accuracy purposes:
Oct (6k-11k) x 5 weeks = 30k-55k
Nov (10k-15k) x 4 weeks = 40k-60k
Dec (20k-30k) x 5 weeks = 100k-150k
=========================
(12.14k - 18.9k) x 14 weeks = 170k - 265k

Not the 150k - 235k that you suggested in the next sentence. Depending on what you meant
My accuracy was just fine. I wasn't including the week that begins on 12/29, because it will run into 2009. I stated that too. Slow down.

I would give a +/- 10k error and say somewhere between 110-130k is a completely appropriate estimation.

What you're suggesting ("above 200k" over the next 14 weeks) is nearly a 200% increase in YOY values for the same exact time period. I know you stand by your prediction, but I'd like you to review the numbers both in your post and in this one before you commit to that again. It's a pretty bold statement, I'll give you that much.

Ok , I will and you will be wrong once again.

First I want to clarify and re-iterate what I will stand by: 12k per week from and including ToV week to the end of the year. Stand as in I will put money on it.

My projection allows for shortages and you can't use that as an excuse for making wildly inaccurate projections. I think you're vastly overestimating the importance of TLR (and its impact). I think you are shockingly wrong about December (20k-30k per week?!). I think you're not looking at least year's results for comparison, and I think that you're calculating returns to the mean incorrectly. And I think you should make another prediction based in reality.

I am not using shortages as an excuse for this prediction, that's for weekly sales, as in next week, or the week after or however long it takes for them to end. Now I will have some fun with you. And I will say this again, the difference between you and I is you rely TOO much on historical data. A lot of it is worthless when it comes to predicting spikes, shifts in momentum, price drops, and basically the entire 360 situation that's currently taking place in Japan. You have to take into consideration what is CURRENTLY happening in THE MARKET, and where they are going.

But I will point this out to you: In December of 2006 the 360 sold 90,700 for the month(matched up to NPD). Forget 07. I believe December 08 will be bigger than December 06.

Edit: Another thing I noticed when looking at your numbers. You are predicting TLR, a JRPG by Square to only sell 18k units, only 1k more than Ace Combat 6 at a $100 cheaper price. May want to look into that week a little harder as well.

And this:
11/03/08 7,000
11/10/08 7,000
11/17/08 18,000 <<---TLR launches 11/20/08
11/24/08 10,000
12/01/08 10,000
12/08/08 10,000
12/15/08 10,000
12/22/08 10,000
12/29/08 10,000
Oh and also your numbers for November average out to be 10,500 per week. And December 10k, a DECREASE in sales from November to December.

Going off of monthly numbers(matched up to NPD)
Nov 06 21,500
Dec 06 91,700
421% Iincrease

Nov 07 26,100
Dec 07 43,400
65%Increase

How the hell are you coming up with a DECREASE from Nov to December? Has that EVER happened anywhere for any console? I am going to ask you the same question you asked me. You sure you want to stand by your numbers?

Think about it.....
 
test_account said:
Ok :) Why isnt it updated to 14k by the way?
donny2112 said:
I don't know. What JoshuaJSlone has is the first week total. There was an Xbox specific updated Famitsu list released for the end of 2005, as well.
That's probably it; it wasn't enough to make the overall top 500, and an Xbox-specific list is one of many things that evidently fell through the cracks without being noticed.
 

Hunahan

Banned
Sep 22, 2006
2,429
0
0
imo, TGS is going to be an enormous indication of whether we can expect continued 360 performance, due to the realities of current performance spikes being highly explainable and directly correlated around a very specific type of game.

In other words - it's not so much that they have found, repurposed, or discovered what the majority of the Japanese audience is currently looking for, it's more that they have properly targeted an underserved niche. Their ability to continue serving that niche will dictate success.

If Microsoft can show that they are going to have a post-SO4 lineup that caters to the same crowd who are currently being attracted to the 360, then they should see a stabilizing effect at higher sales levels, and a continued growth pattern specifically in RPG-gamer marketshare.

If they don't have any indications of continued, and specifically targeted, Japanese library enhancement, they will probably see peaks and valleys around the next two RPG releases before losing steam unceremoniously.

The fact that Microsoft is headed into Tokyo dragging Bungie studios in tow does not give me tremendous faith that they actually have a Japan-friendly announcement schedule currently in line, but I guess you never know.

We'll see in a week.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Jul 4, 2006
32,311
0
1,210
jimbo:

1. Presentation: Please stop with the RANDOM capitalization, out of place boldings, and silly underlinings to add emphasis. It makes both you and your argument appear weaker (and easier to not take seriously).

2. # of weeks: I apologize for mistaking your number of weeks to be 14 instead of 13. That would indeed make your prediction 140k-235k (even though you said 150k-235k). I will rework my previous argument to account for this:

235k/13 weeks = 18.07k / week.
150k/13 weeks = 11.53k / week.

The chart above is still relevant so I will include it again:



3. The Chart of Non-Reality: The above chart shows the max of what you suggest, with OCT averaging 11k, NOV averaging 15k, and 30k averages for DEC. Does this look like reality to you? Not including the first 6 weeks on sale, do you know how many times the 360 has gone above 10k weekly sales? That would be exactly 4 times my friend, 3 of which have been the last 3 weeks. To date, the 360 has never hit 30k past its launch period and you're seriously suggesting that it will average 30k for the month of December? How does that makes sense?

4. Averages? Why are you insisting on this shot-in-the-dark "12k per week" thing? Where does that number come from? How did you arrive at that number? Why do you think that is the number that 360 will average for the next 13 weeks? Why are we trying to average out something that changes dynamically in much shorter intervals? How can you stand by such a statement?

5. Our Differences in Analysis: If you expect shortages, account for them. If you don't, don't. If you're not sure but want to leave leeway just in case, try coming up with a better method of prediction. What you call momentum, I call hope. What you call price drops and spikes, I call attempts at sustaining a 6% foothold in the marketplace. What you call historical data, I call boundaries on reality and a realistic base of expectations.

6. Dec 06 vs Dec 08: Did you just suggest that this year will be bigger than the 360 launch? Really? You said that you believe '08 will be bigger than '06. Why? Because of momentum? jRPGs? Price Drops?

7. The Last Remnant: I assume you meant that I'm suggesting that it will only move 18k 360 hardware units, and not sell 18k software copies? Probably. I looked again, and you may be right. It will probably debut around 80k-100k software units sold and may push the hardware as high as 30k. I would point to IU as a precedent, though, and you might notice how sales fell through the floor after one week (typical for a jRPG). I think this is important because you're using TLR to predict a massive upswing in average sales per week, when it should only have a one or two-week effect. Considering all of this may have me push my prediction up around 5k (125k +/- 10k), but in no way would that justify a 200k prediction.

8. NOV vs. DEC: Did you really just compare November 2006 to December 2006 and say "421% increase!?" Not only was that the launch period for the 360 (so those weeks are always an anomaly -- check any console history to confirm), but it was only on sale for one week in November. Hardly the most honest of comparisons you've thrown out there so far.

Why are you looking at Nov vs. Dec. % increases anyway? Is this a good predictor of console sales? That might actually be a compelling argument...if you had any data to back it up other than one year of 360 sales that went up from 6k in November 2007 to 8k in December.

9. Conclusions: I think what you're trying to do is assume that TLR will magically sell more 360 hardware units than any other piece of software it has already received (so you think it will sell more than 28k units), and then you're taking the average of that month with the TLR-bump in it and increasing it by 45% to determine what December should look like? Do I have that right? Can you look at that and not tell why that's a flawed method? How are you factoring "momentum?" How are you factoring in price drops?

10. I appreciate that you're conversing in a civil tone and I will continue to do so as well. I want you to know that I am wrong all the time and have no problem being wrong, but when I'm wrong its because I had a flawed method, not because I was shooting in the dark with hope and magic expectations. If you're right, I want you to be right because you have a solid method and not for other, sillier reasons. And I definitely don't want you to be wrong and potentially embarrassed because you overlooked a few simple things.

Just please knock off the random caps, bolds, and underlines. Thanks d00d.
 
Jun 7, 2007
5,707
4
945
Next week releases:


10/06 - 10/12/2008

PS2:
10/06 Kidou Senshi Gundam 00: Gundam Meisters

10/09 Daito Giken Koushiki Pachi-Slot Simulator: 24 - Twenty-Four
10/09 Ever17: The Out of Infinity (Renai Game Selection)
10/09 Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock
10/09 Guitar Hero: Aerosmith on Tour
10/09 Guitar Hero: Aerosmith on Tour (w/Guitar)
10/09 Infinity Plus
10/09 Kamiyo Gakuen Makorouku Kurunugia
10/09 Memories Off Duet: 1st and 2nd Stories (Renai Game Selection)
10/09 Memories Off Sorekara (Renai Game Selection)
10/09 Never7: The End of Infinity (Renai Game Selection)
10/09 Omoide ni Kawaru-Kimi: Memories Off (Renai Game Selection)
10/09 Remember 11: The Age of Infinity (Renai Game Selection)
10/09 Star Wars: The Force Unleashed
10/09 Will O' Wisp: Easter no Kiseki
10/09 Will O' Wisp: Easter no Kiseki (Twin Pack)


NDS:
10/09 Kawaii Koinu DS 2
10/09 Nihongo de Asobo DS
10/09 Snoopy DS: Snoopy to Nakama Tachi ni Ai ni Ikou!
10/09 Star Wars: The Force Unleashed
10/09 Tetsudou Kentei DS
10/09 Tetsudou Musume DS: Terminal Memory
10/09 Tetsudou Musume DS: Terminal Memory (Limited Edition)


Wii:
10/09 Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock
10/09 Guitar Hero: Aerosmith on Tour
10/09 Star Wars: The Force Unleashed


PSP:
10/09 Macross Ace Frontier
10/09 Mahjong Haoh Portable: Jansou Battle (Mycom Best)
10/09 Umewaza Ykari no Yasashi Igo


PS3:
10/09 Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock
10/09 Guitar Hero: Aerosmith on Tour
10/09 Guitar Hero: Aerosmith on Tour (w/Guitar)


X360:
10/09 Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock
 

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
Aug 30, 2005
22,609
0
0
31
Toronto, ON
Looks like another weak week, the mecha games will come out on top but nothing else is guaranteed to make the top 10.

Edit: Isn't Gundam 00 for the week after though (10/16)?
 

jimbo

Banned
Jan 9, 2005
2,864
0
0
PantherLotus said:
jimbo:


3. The Chart of Non-Reality: The above chart shows the max of what you suggest, with OCT averaging 11k, NOV averaging 15k, and 30k averages for DEC. Does this look like reality to you? Not including the first 6 weeks on sale, do you know how many times the 360 has gone above 10k weekly sales? That would be exactly 4 times my friend, 3 of which have been the last 3 weeks. To date, the 360 has never hit 30k past its launch period and you're seriously suggesting that it will average 30k for the month of December? How does that makes sense?
Wrong. It did Blue Dragon week.

December 4 - 10, 2006
X360 - 35,343

And no, I am seriously suggesting it can do between 20k and 30k average. You are only concentrating on my max number for December and ignoring the min. It doesn't have to average 30k per week in December to get to that over 200k. It can be closer to the lower end of my December prediction as long as it's on the higher end of my October and November prediction. And it can still get there.

4. Averages? Why are you insisting on this shot-in-the-dark "12k per week" thing? Where does that number come from? How did you arrive at that number? Why do you think that is the number that 360 will average for the next 13 weeks? Why are we trying to average out something that changes dynamically in much shorter intervals? How can you stand by such a statement?
I explained how I came up with it 2 weeks ago. You paid no attention to it. I won't go through it again. It's still there if you want to go searching for it.

5. Our Differences in Analysis: If you expect shortages, account for them. If you don't, don't. If you're not sure but want to leave leeway just in case, try coming up with a better method of prediction. What you call momentum, I call hope. What you call price drops and spikes, I call attempts at sustaining a 6% foothold in the marketplace. What you call historical data, I call boundaries on reality and a realistic base of expectations.
I am accounting for shortages in my long-term predictions. You can't in next week's prediction. It's impossible.

6. Dec 06 vs Dec 08: Did you just suggest that this year will be bigger than the 360 launch? Really? You said that you believe '08 will be bigger than '06. Why? Because of momentum? jRPGs? Price Drops?
The 360 launched in 2005, not 2006. December 06 beat December 05(launch period).
Dec 05 70,600
Dec 06 90,700

It beat it because of ONE game, Blue Dragon. Yes I think that all of those is the reason why it will beat, not only launch, but 06 holiday period. All of these factors combined > Blue Dragon.

BTW, here's an interesting REAL launch comparison....

(week 4 of the 360's launch is a spike caused by DOA4)

8. NOV vs. DEC: Did you really just compare November 2006 to December 2006 and say "421% increase!?" Not only was that the launch period for the 360 (so those weeks are always an anomaly -- check any console history to confirm), but it was only on sale for one week in November. Hardly the most honest of comparisons you've thrown out there so far.
What? The 360 launched in 2005.

Why are you looking at Nov vs. Dec. % increases anyway? Is this a good predictor of console sales? That might actually be a compelling argument...if you had any data to back it up other than one year of 360 sales that went up from 6k in November 2007 to 8k in December.
Why? Because your prediction makes 0 sense. There always has been an increase in sales from NOV to DEC, pretty much for any console anywhere in the world. It will happen again this year. It will happen to the 360. Your prediction doesn't account for that fact. And that's 2 years, that that has happened. Again, the 360 launched in 2005.

9. Conclusions: I think what you're trying to do is assume that TLR will magically sell more 360 hardware units than any other piece of software it has already received (so you think it will sell more than 28k units), and then you're taking the average of that month with the TLR-bump in it and increasing it by 45% to determine what December should look like? Do I have that right? Can you look at that and not tell why that's a flawed method? How are you factoring "momentum?" How are you factoring in price drops?
How did you come up with this from what I said? Nowhere in my prediction did I even say TLR will sell more than 35k worth of hardware(biggest bump, BD 06). I said it will average between 10-15k per week in November. It could be 8, 8, 22, 13(12.75 average per week). Or 9, 7, 20, 11(11.75 per week). They all work. Funny how that 12k just seems to hang around, huh ;) And yes my over 200k+ is based on one more HUGE spike from A game from now until the end of the year. Doesn't have to be TLR, but it just looks like it could be. It could also be 2 games causing 2 smaller spikes. Either way it needs some sort of software driven hardware spike between now and the end of the year. The probability of that happening is, IMO, very good. And btw I actually expect its biggest week from now until end of the year to be in December, not the week of TLR.

10. I appreciate that you're conversing in a civil tone and I will continue to do so as well. I want you to know that I am wrong all the time and have no problem being wrong, but when I'm wrong its because I had a flawed method, not because I was shooting in the dark with hope and magic expectations. If you're right, I want you to be right because you have a solid method and not for other, sillier reasons. And I definitely don't want you to be wrong and potentially embarrassed because you overlooked a few simple things.

Just please knock off the random caps, bolds, and underlines. Thanks d00d.
My method is solid. There is no magic about it. There is no shooting in the dark. It's based on past numbers, just like yours(well actually yours seem to be off by about a year). Plus small adjustments for what's currently happening in the market.

Your whole method, once again, is so stuck on what it has done and what it has done in the past. What's been happening for the past 2 months has not been done in the past. What's about to happen over the next couple of months has not been done in the past. You are using its highest previous numbers as your upmost barrier and that's where you are messing up. That's not a barrier of any sort. They are just numbers it has done in the past. Numbers that can, and will be easily beat. The whole idea is that the 360 is going to do in Japan what it hasn't done before.

Edit: The rest of your points I mostly agree with. I use bold letters and underlines because it seems you never take the time to read everything I type. I try to make sure at least a few of my most important points get to your eyes, like the 360 launched in 2005. And you should also get your numbers and data straight before we continue this. I think you have made that 06 launch mistake before. Check your data.

PS:
THE 360 LAUNCHED IN 2005!!!.:D
 
Nov 17, 2006
24,417
0
0
39
Koga, Ibaraki, Japan
C.T. said:
Two Guitar Heroes on the same day? Isn't this kind of a bad decision
GH3's been out for months, this is just the stand-alone release of GH3. It hadn't been released yet since GH: Aerosmith is only the 2nd GH to be released in Japan, and therefore the first opportunity for JP gamers to have a guitar and not have GH3.
 

jimbo

Banned
Jan 9, 2005
2,864
0
0
Hunahan said:
imo, TGS is going to be an enormous indication of whether we can expect continued 360 performance, due to the realities of current performance spikes being highly explainable and directly correlated around a very specific type of game.

In other words - it's not so much that they have found, repurposed, or discovered what the majority of the Japanese audience is currently looking for, it's more that they have properly targeted an underserved niche. Their ability to continue serving that niche will dictate success.

If Microsoft can show that they are going to have a post-SO4 lineup that caters to the same crowd who are currently being attracted to the 360, then they should see a stabilizing effect at higher sales levels, and a continued growth pattern specifically in RPG-gamer marketshare.

If they don't have any indications of continued, and specifically targeted, Japanese library enhancement, they will probably see peaks and valleys around the next two RPG releases before losing steam unceremoniously.

The fact that Microsoft is headed into Tokyo dragging Bungie studios in tow does not give me tremendous faith that they actually have a Japan-friendly announcement schedule currently in line, but I guess you never know.

We'll see in a week.
I agree with everything you just said. I wouldn't read too much into them bringing Bungie, though. MS has Mistwalker and they have been VERY quiet in general about future games. Keep in mind they already revealed Ninja Blade prior to TGS. And that looks freaking great. I'm sure they have something better than that to show, or they would have saved that to unveil. I expect some exciting announcements from them, especially with the report awhile back of them holding a keynote speach. But you are right, if they don't it could kill their momentum past SO4. They have to continue showing support for the long haul and honestly, I believe they will. Especially now, after the past 2 months.
 

freddy

Banned
Jun 7, 2007
8,296
0
0
Recently we've seen a lot of new announcements from Nintendo and Sony is rumoured to have 11(?)unannounced first party titles in the works for TGS. Is whatever Microsoft has in store enough to grab more mindshare?

It seems more and more like they will have to outdo themselves just to keep up with what the others have to offer. Enticing the customer with a solid library is one way to increase market share but if your competitors also have a growing library then much of what you do is nullified.

If they don't show a lot at TGS I fear they may fall behind rather than vie for second spot.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,613
2
1,000
donny2112 said:
I don't know. What JoshuaJSlone has is the first week total. There was an Xbox specific updated Famitsu list released for the end of 2005, as well.
JoshuaJSlone said:
That's probably it; it wasn't enough to make the overall top 500, and an Xbox-specific list is one of many things that evidently fell through the cracks without being noticed.
Ok, it is no problem for me :) I did belive you, donny2112, when you said that Fable 1 for Xbox 1 sold 14k in Japan, i just asked since i was wondering if there was any special reason for why it wasnt updated. Thanks for the answers to the both of you! :)
 

C.T.

Member
Apr 2, 2007
1,398
0
0
Germany
www.gamers-spirit.de
Segata Sanshiro said:
GH3's been out for months, this is just the stand-alone release of GH3. It hadn't been released yet since GH: Aerosmith is only the 2nd GH to be released in Japan, and therefore the first opportunity for JP gamers to have a guitar and not have GH3.
Thx, remember now. Didin't it do 10 xxx?