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[Rocksteady33]

Agreed, depending on word of mouth it could easily keep going. Slow and steady is how this game will sell.

Are we estimating what would be a "success" for this? I mean would hitting 500k be considered good or not living up to potential?

For a Wii ___ title it's not living up to potential, but I just feel that Wii Fit is an overall better product and will be more of an attraction to potential buyers this holiday season then compared to a somewhat dumbed down music title. Who knows though? It could very easily show amazing legs like most "blue ocean" type games do.

 

[Laguna]

Dumbed down compared to what?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Wiis userbase in Japan is even more family oriented and fans of more light-hearted games like Mario, Dragon Quest and not so much into games were you have to kill. This is why games with good marketing like Mario Kart, Brawl and Symphonia sold well and other games like One Piece did ok as well this year

This reminds me. Considering the gist of what you say (and it's not something I'd disagree with), I've found it weird that none of the Wii One Piece or Naruto games have neared the success of the biggest GameCube entries. To compare the best-selling thus far:

One Piece
GCN: 252K
Wii: 111K

Naruto
GCN: 405K
Wii: 110K

So why has that not happened for 360? The new 360 bundles represent excellent value for money compared to the existing hardware SKUs.

I thought part of the shortage problem a few months back was due to shifts to new SKUs. There are even newer ones coming soon?

Pretty sure NES still holds that.

Nintendo's official final shipment number for Famicom in Japan is 19.32 million. The only competition DS has is if you count Game Boy and Game Boy Color as a single entity from 1989 through the early 21st century, in which case it is over 30 million.

 

[Rocksteady33]

Dumbed down compared to what?

In the fact that it's incredibly accessible. I'm not trying to spark some sort of Wii Music fued that people seem to get so much out of here, because honestly I haven't looked much into the game. However when you look at successful music games in Japan (like Taiko Drum Master) Wii Music is approaching the genre from a different angle, so it's difficult to see how people will accept it.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I genuinely do not believe that the DSi's music functions will appeal to anyone interested in an iPod.

Where do people get music?
- They download it... in mp3 format.
- They buy it digitally... in either mp3 format from most stores, or protected AAC from Apple.
- They rip it themselves... disproportionately in mp3 format.
- They receive it from others... who get it one of the first three ways.

The DSi cannot play the majority of the world's digital music. It cannot play the majority of the world's purchased digital music. It cannot play digital music from the world's largest digital music store.

The audience that needs or benefits from a new music player is a tiny sliver of technophobic individuals for which this friendly and accessible device could force them to make the leap. I agree that there's an audience. But that audience is also definitionally the least likely audience to have the skills or motivation to bend the peculiarities of Nintendo's whims in terms of supported formats.

The camera functionality I see as working. The software to do stuff with the photos is self-contained in the DS. The quality of the camera is not a major issue; 640x480 is enough to display on the main screens that Nintendo suggests you display the photos on.

... but the music requires outside input and adds a layer of complexity that is neither needed nor desired by consumers.

 

[d+pad]

Yeah I doubt that. I'm doubting its ability to make a million, but I think it will hit 500K fairly easily.

Huh. I have a feeling that its LTD will be over a million and that it might be at or near a million just after the holidays. It's certainly started off slow, but I think this week's numbers (and last week's) suggest it will be a slow burner. Ex: it sold about 50,000 first day and nearly another 50,000 the rest of its first week and all of its second week. If it sells another 50,000-is next week, I think we'll have even better evidence of this.

As to the poster who asked what would make Wii Music a success or failure: For me, personally, I think it needs to break the million mark to not be considered a bomb by many, esp. given the numbers the other Wii-branded games have pulled off.

 

[Laguna]

More accessible = dumbed down? And your comparison with Drum master (like Guitar Hero and Co.) is actually pretty funny because that´s the bottom line of dumbed down music games. Thats just pushing buttons according to sliding icons with no noteworthy effect on music/gameplay besides the score-system.

@JoshuaJSlone
Especially Naruto isn´t as popular as it was years ago, that the gameplay has been nearly the same after 4 GCN games doesn´t generate new interest either. I would call it series fatigue anime and game wise. It´s performance is comparable with Tekken which went from very good sales on PSX, to good sales with Tag Tornament to decent sales with T4, T5.

 

[MassiveAttack]

The series hasn't exactly been on the rise since Tenchu 3, but the Wii clearly doesn't have the Tenchu fanbase from the PS2 regardless.

http://garaph.info/softwaregroup.php?grid=133

Tenchu 4 will fit nicely in between the PSP and 360 games on this graph.

The series has cratered ever since Activision sold the IP to From.

 

[markatisu]

In the fact that it's incredibly accessible. I'm not trying to spark some sort of Wii Music fued that people seem to get so much out of here, because honestly I haven't looked much into the game.

You obviously have never played Wii Music, its not accessible as you may think. In comparison to Wii Sports and Wii fit its a lot "harder" to get into the game without experience and trial and error.

However when you look at successful music games in Japan (like Taiko Drum Master) Wii Music is approaching the genre from a different angle, so it's difficult to see how people will accept it.

I agree with that, I think word of mouth will do more for this game then an advertisement would, its one of those games that will live and breath on how well people recommend it to others.

This reminds me. Considering the gist of what you say (and it's not something I'd disagree with), I've found it weird that none of the Wii One Piece or Naruto games have neared the success of the biggest GameCube entries. To compare the best-selling thus far:

Also keep in mind that One Piece has been out for quite some time and Naruto is starting to become saturated (its on the PS3 and 360 now as well). I agree with what Laguna said as a way of explaining the lower sales.

I am actually surprised that latest One Piece sold as well as it did

 

[Rocksteady33]

More accessible = dumbed down? And your comparison with Drum master (like Guitar Hero and Co.) is actually pretty funny because that´s the bottom line of dumbed down music games. Thats just pushing buttons according to sliding icons with no noteworthy effect on music/gameplay besides the score-system.

Ugh, why do people jump at everyone's throats the moment anyone even remotely criticizes this game. I'm not getting into this, I said I had never played the game, and aside from a few commercials, pre-school demo and the E3 conference that goes as far as my knowledge of the game. Would I call Wii Sports a dumbed down game? Sure. I think if a pre-schooler can get a lot out of a music game (something they likely couldn't do in a game like Guitar Hero or Drum Master) then yes, I'm going to categorize it as dumbed down. Excuse my vocabulary but that's my terminology and it isn't meant to be positive or negative, so don't get your panties in a bunch.

Word of mouth sells almost any Wii title, and considering the time of year it's not surprising to see Wii Music on the lower end of the Wii brand launch numbers. I say after four weeks we can make judgements, but even now it's still too early.

 

[Aadil]

What Sony need to do is attempt a "three pillar" stratergy similar to that of Nintendos, PS3 and PSP being targeted at the hardcore and the PS2 rebranded as into a waggle box, Sony can get ~ 5 years out of the PS2 that way.

 

[gkryhewy]

What Sony need to do is attempt a "three pillar" stratergy similar to that of Nintendos, PS3 and PSP being targeted at the hardcore and the PS2 rebranded as into a waggle box, Sony can get ~ 5 years out of the PS2 that way.

I think that ship has sailed for this console cycle. If they were going to do that, they missed their chance.

 

[Laguna]

What an attidute... I just pointed out my opinion. games like Drum Master, Guitar Hero aren´t exactly games that I would call complex by any means. They actually are pretty simplistic, even Tetris is more complex. That´s actually the reason why I asked you what music games you were comparing WiiMusic to call it a dumbed-down music game. To me games like Drum Master already are at the bottom line, so it´s rather difficult to be even more simplistic.

 

[Stumpokapow]

What Sony need to do is attempt a "three pillar" stratergy similar to that of Nintendos, PS3 and PSP being targeted at the hardcore and the PS2 rebranded as into a waggle box, Sony can get ~ 5 years out of the PS2 that way.

They should launch 4 new consoles;

PS2 Waggle--5 more years of PS2
PS3 (already launched)
PS4 -- $1000, totally next gen

PSP (already launched)
PSP2--$350, next gen handheld
PSDL--PlayStation Downloader; hybrid phone/portable gaming device well all games sold through Playstation Store.

Also each should come in a minimum of four colours, preferable with multiple SKUs with different storage configurations. I don't see why game consoles aren't like cars--each manufacturer should have dozens of models!

 

[Aadil]

I think that ship has sailed for this console cycle. If they were going to do that, they missed their chance.

I don't think it's still too late, Sony can make it as a REAL viable option for the consumer especially when this area of gaming is growing rapidly even through these tough times.

 

[Rocksteady33]

What Sony need to do is attempt a "three pillar" stratergy similar to that of Nintendos, PS3 and PSP being targeted at the hardcore and the PS2 rebranded as into a waggle box, Sony can get ~ 5 years out of the PS2 that way.

If anything Nintendo showed that a three pillar strategy doesn't work... the moment the DS got popular they dumped the GBA. If the PS2 Waggle were to fly off shelves, Sony would likely abandon one of their products as well. Why support a sinking ship?

 

[Aadil]

If anything Nintendo showed that a three pillar strategy doesn't work... the moment the DS got popular they dumped the GBA. If the PS2 Waggle were to fly off shelves, Sony would likely abandon one of their products as well. Why support a sinking ship?

Becasue Nintendo are continuing with this approach... DSi? I doubt Nintendo want to gimp the DSlites sales and abandon it anytime soon.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I don't see why game consoles aren't like cars--each manufacturer should have dozens of models!

They are getting there with yearly revisions, extra features, different models/SKUs for the same product...:lol

 

[PantherLotus]

Becasue Nintendo are continuing with this approach... DSi? I doubt Nintendo want to gimp the DSlites sales and abandon it anytime soon.

It's the DSL-color.

 

[Stumpokapow]

They are getting there with yearly revisions, extra features, different models/SKUs for the same product...:lol

hahaha

it's always the worst when you write a joke post and it ends up being true

Becasue Nintendo are continuing with this approach... DSi? I doubt Nintendo want to gimp the DSlites sales and abandon it anytime soon.

"Love is like oxygen... you get too much, you get too high... not enough and you're going to die. Love gets you high."--so, no, I don't think the DSLite will be around much longer after the DSi launch.

 

[jesusraz]

hahaha. it's always the worst when you write a joke post and it ends up being true

I did wonder how many may have thought your post was serious, hehe!

 

[-Kh-]

DS is low because DS has got to the saturation point in Japan. It's been like this even before the DSi announcement.

DSi, with its music playback and camera functionalities, is targeting to people who are not interested in any kind of gaming.

Although I agree that the DS seemed to have reached its limits, for the past 10 straight weeks (before the last one, 3000 release), the DS took back the leading postion over the PSP, doign as high as 78k and as low as 51k, the week of the Nintendo conference, it went down to 42k.

The dip on the PSP numbers was indeed reaction to the Leipzig announcement of the 3000 model, however it was in no matter related to help the DS on sales or anything like that.

This just shows how some software can still push the DS further, and while the DSi is indeed needed to keep the hardware supremacy in the Nintendo court, it is not really to push the DS because it was a dying console, with more new software, and the DS could have kept its legs for a while longer on its own. And we will probably see it on the charts for a while longer before it stops selling maybe the same way as with GBA/SP transition.

I agree as well that the DSi main target are not those already with a DS specifically, but those that have a PSP or iPhone, or any other similar model of mobile phone, targeted more towards a multimedia system.

 

[HK-47]

Although I agree that the DS seemed to have reached its limits, for the past 10 straight weeks (before the last one, 3000 release), the DS took back the leading postion over the PSP, doign as high as 78k and as low as 51k, the week of the Nintendo conference, it went down to 42k.

The dip on the PSP numbers was indeed reaction to the Leipzig announcement of the 3000 model, however it was in no matter related to help the DS on sales or anything like that.

This just shows how some software can still push the DS further, and while the DSi is indeed needed to keep the hardware supremacy in the Nintendo court, it is not really to push the DS because it was a dying console, with more new software, and the DS could have kept its legs for a while longer on its own. And we will probably see it on the charts for a while longer before it stops selling maybe the same way as with GBA/SP transition.

I agree as well that the DSi main target are not those already with a DS specifically, but those that have a PSP or iPhone, or any other similar model of mobile phone, targeted more towards a multimedia system.

The only reason I dont get the DSi is cause those other media devices are utterly superior in ever aspect save games, and anyone who cares about that already has one or a PSP. Its feature set is nowhere near the PSP or the Iphone/Touch

 

[-Kh-]

The only reason I dont get the DSi is cause those other media devices are utterly superior in ever aspect save games, and anyone who cares about that already has one or a PSP. Its feature set is nowhere near the PSP or the Iphone/Touch

I will get one only if there are any good games that make use of the special features of the DSi. Although the bigger screen is tempting, it really isn't that big. I wouldn't pay more than £90-100 for one either.

 

[donny2112]

Final Fantasy XII: Revenant Wings (Ultimate Hits) 970

If find it very fitting that FFXII:RW's original release heralded the conclusion of over a year's worth of shortages for the DS, and the Ultimate Hits version releases the week before the DSi comes out.

 

[Jokeropia]

Just checked; you're right. It still was getting beat consistently by the PSP almost every week, so I wonder if that had to do with something.

Wrong again. PSP's weekly advantage over the DS decreased steadily after each of it's boosts and DS was back to beating PSP consistently well before the PSP 3000 was announced.

Edit: What -Kh- said.

 

[justchris]

Ugh, why do people jump at everyone's throats the moment anyone even remotely criticizes this game. I'm not getting into this, I said I had never played the game, and aside from a few commercials, pre-school demo and the E3 conference that goes as far as my knowledge of the game. Would I call Wii Sports a dumbed down game? Sure. I think if a pre-schooler can get a lot out of a music game (something they likely couldn't do in a game like Guitar Hero or Drum Master) then yes, I'm going to categorize it as dumbed down. Excuse my vocabulary but that's my terminology and it isn't meant to be positive or negative, so don't get your panties in a bunch.

I don't know, two of the biggest Guitar Hero fans I know are preschoolers. And there are several youtube videos that would seem to indicate otherwise.

 

[Karma]

Wow, I didn't expect PSP to see such a big drop, and PS3 almost 4k?!?

360 dropped a bit less than I thought it would.
Tenchu MEGA BOMBA!


Those poor 720 people. :lol

I wonder how many of them bought it just to see how bad it is.

Isn`t that an increase? Wasn`t it 6,000 last week?

 

[Yes Boss!]

Becasue Nintendo are continuing with this approach... DSi? I doubt Nintendo want to gimp the DSlites sales and abandon it anytime soon.

DSi is not a third pillar. It is the new version of the DSlite.

 

[jj984jj]

Isn`t that an increase? Wasn`t it 6,000 last week?

Oh yeah, I was thinking of the MC numbers. I wonder if it'll increase on MC too this week?

 

[Minsc]

First 5 Weeks, Wii-series:

Wii Sports: (launched with system, 11/27/06)
176,880
75,575
62,119
142,157
96,483

Wii Play (launched with system, 11/27/06)
171,888
68,053
55,080
126,161
82,003

Wii Fit (launched on one-year anniversary, 11/26/07)
254,009
153,219
119,841
210,406
80,691

Wii Music (launched 10/13/08--a month early?)
92,000
38,000
n/a
n/a
n/a

Stolen from last week and updated

To be fair, looking at it as %s, it appears Wii Music is more or less on par with a few of the others.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Stolen from last week and updated

To be fair, looking at it as %s, it appears Wii Music is more or less on par with a few of the others.

It's hard to look at there as being a norm, though. Wii Sports and Wii Play being launch games, the effect of them selling to such a large percentage of hardware owners, and hardware being in much shorter supply on week two than week one, makes such things more an effect of early hardware availability.

 

[shykyoichi]

Wii Music (launched 10/13/08--a month early?)
92,000
38,000

It seems that Japan is not picking up Wii Music.