Support NeoGAF

[PepsimanVsJoe]

If it was a normal shooter. Factor in the animu girls and I'll say 12-15K.

I'd say otherwise but then I realized that nearly every Cave shooter released these days is a chickfest. Certainly a factor worth considering I'm afraid. =/

 

[Mindlog]

market bandwidth

There are so many questions to be asked.

I'm wondering if(how closely) the dip in hardware leads/lags a protracted dip in software. Obviously some software sells a lot of hardware, but what about other titles :] Can a volume of releases be as 'effective' long term or are the system sellers just that vital.

 

[PantherLotus]

Up however many posts, ^^ PSP IS up for the year so far.

Here's what we know:

YOY Data
Total Hardware YOY YTD: 78.09%
Total Handheld YOY YTD: 75.98%
Total Console YOY YTD: 88.46%

Handheld MS
2007: 67.25%
2008: 64.17%

Consoles:
2007: 32.75%
2008: 35.83%


Proposed formula for projection:

A = Last Year's Total Hardware Sold (for the following week)
B = Total Hardware YOY YTD
C = (Platform) 2008 Market Share
D = (System)'s Past 4 week Market Share Average

X = Projected Data


A*B*C*D=X?

Basically, the value of next week's system in question should be able to be found by taking last year's data for the same week, multiplying by the yearly increase or decrease in total market gain, multiplying by the market share of the platform in question (console or handheld), and then multiplying again by the market share of the specific system in question.

Let me get some data to run this through. I'm ridiculously geeking out right now, and also realize that this is absurd to even try. Let me know if any of you have any ideas.

 

[donny2112]

The DS and PSP are suffering from market saturation (well, the DS certainly is).

No.

The Wii, on the other hand, just hasn't seen the kind of releases that get the public excited.

Wii was also sold out for most of 2007. In fact, anyone who is surprised that overall hardware is down in 2008 vs. 2007 is very forgetful. DS was sold out until Golden Week 2007 and was still consistently > 100K until the August holiday. Wii was sold out until the August holiday. Of course yoy comparisons will be down from that. :/

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

No.

According to Nintendo, the DS has reached market saturation. Hence the DSi.

Was wrong about the PSP though. Didn't actually look at the individual graphs and just assumed it was down YoY. I remembered that it had slowed somewhat and simply joined the dots. Incorrectly, I might add.

Wii was also sold out for most of 2007. In fact, anyone who is surprised that overall hardware is down in 2008 vs. 2007 is very forgetful. DS was sold out until Golden Week 2007 and was still consistently > 100K until the August holiday. Wii was sold out until the August holiday. Of course yoy comparisons will be down from that. :/

You make a good point. It just feels like so long ago, I didn't think it relevant.

 

[HK-47]

According to Nintendo, the DS has reached market saturation. Hence the DSi.

Was wrong about the PSP though. Didn't actually look at the individual graphs and just assumed it was down YoY. I remembered that it had slowed somewhat and simply joined the dots. Incorrectly, I might add.


You make a good point. It just feels like so long ago, I didn't think it relevant.

Whether or not Nintendo thought it was (and I have a feeling DSi was more of a strike at Iphone and PSP than to aid sales) the numbers certainly arent saturation numbers

 

[donny2112]

According to Nintendo, the DS has reached market saturation. Hence the DSi.

No. Nintendo said that they didn't want to wait for slowdown in sales to introduce a new version of the DS. The DSi is meant to continue good sales as opposed to reversing downward trends. They also mentioned the "1 DS per person" thing, but I don't believe they were trying to say the DS's current levels were saturated.

It just feels like so long ago, I didn't think it relevant.

Also, I update this every week, so it reminds me that the shortages were only finished last year for the DS and Wii.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

No. Nintendo said that they didn't want to wait for slowdown in sales to introduce a new version of the DS. The DSi is meant to continue good sales as opposed to reversing downward trends. They also mentioned the "1 DS per person" thing, but I don't believe they were trying to say the DS's current levels were saturated.

It may have been a mistranslation, but I distinctly remember the phrase being bandied about when the DSi was announced. It was something along the lines of "current market is approaching exhaustion; the DSi is here to continue expanding it and reach new customers". Like it or not, this kind of talk points to a perceived/predicted market saturation.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

Here's what we know:

Proposed formula for projection:

A = Last Year's Total Hardware Sold (for the following week)
B = Total Hardware YOY YTD
C = (Platform) 2008 Market Share
D = (System)'s Past 4 week Market Share Average

X = Projected Data


A*B*C*D=X?

Basically, the value of next week's system in question should be able to be found by taking last year's data for the same week, multiplying by the yearly increase or decrease in total market gain, multiplying by the market share of the platform in question (console or handheld), and then multiplying again by the market share of the specific system in question.

Let me get some data to run this through. I'm ridiculously geeking out right now, and also realize that this is absurd to even try. Let me know if any of you have any ideas.

Well that seems straightforward. The question that remains is whether or not it would be worth while to use the last few weeks of data to try and get a better fit instead of just an average.

That might work better at capturing the falloff from a spike. Of course nothing will let you predict the spikes themselves.

Or if you could then you should be making a fortune on Wallstreet or something instead of fucking around in sales threads.

 

[PantherLotus]

Well that seems straightforward. The question that remains is whether or not it would be worth while to use the last few weeks of data to try and get a better fit instead of just an average.

That might work better at capturing the falloff from a spike. Of course nothing will let you predict the spikes themselves.

Or if you could then you should be making a fortune on Wallstreet or something instead of fucking around in sales threads.

1. Clearly the "last 4 weeks" is meant to capture momentum, and has always been the Y value that I'm not sure how to figure.

2. This method would never be able to predict spikes, only general trends. But that's always been the caveat; only shipment numbers would ever help with that.

3. Eating dinner then I'll report some initial results.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

1. Clearly the "last 4 weeks" is meant to capture momentum, and has always been the Y value that I'm not sure how to figure.

2. This method would never be able to predict spikes, only general trends. But that's always been the caveat; only shipment numbers would ever help with that.

3. Eating dinner then I'll report some initial results.

Just to be concrete:

If a console hits a spike and sells 50k, 30k, 20k, 15k in consecutive weeks. All things being equal averaging would predict 28.5k for the next week.

Messing around in Open Office seems to show that an exponential fit would yield about 10k as a prediction of about 10k.

If I had to hazard a guess as to the best way to fit would be something like go back up to 4 weeks of data as long as that data is monotonic then fit those 2 to 4 points with an exponential regression.

 

[PantherLotus]

First couple tests:

A = Last Year's Total Hardware Sold (for the following week)
B = Total Hardware YOY YTD
C = (Platform) 2008 Market Share
D = (System)'s Past 4 week Market Share Average

X = Projected Data

                A      B      C      D      X    ACTUAL
Wii 10/06/08 177,431 75.18% 36.99% 60.00% 29,603 26,024
Wii 10/13/08 174,350 76.50% 36.51% 62.42% 30,398 24,292
Wii 10/20/08 186,070 76.22% 36.37% 64.92% 33,488 23,123
Wii 10/27/08 211,035 77.80% 36.05% 57.81% 34,219 24,726
Wii 11/03/08 234,135 78.09% 35.83% 53.16% 34,826

Hmm. Not that good, except for 10/06/08. One thing I'd like to add in but I'm not sure how would be "last week's data." That would certainly help the obvious problem of being off by the same amount each week. Perhaps "% of last week's data compared to the previous year's last week's data" instead of the "past 4 week MS avg?"

If I can get to 85% accuracy I'll be extremely pleased, because I can establish +/- error and be done with it.

 

[PantherLotus]

More on that later. For now, projections while they still count as projections.

Last Week's Results:

[B][U]SYSTEM PROJECTED  ACTUAL[/U][/B]
DS      120,000  113,278
PSP      42,000   43,726
WII      28,000   24,726
360       7,000   12,759
PS3      25,000   18,354
TOTAL   222,000  212,843

Equation 1's Projections for next week:
DS: 56,990
PSP: 60,333
Wii: 34,826
360: 12,093
PS3: 18,592

Now you can see why it might be important to include some form of last week's data as a precedent.

Equation 2's Projections for next week:
DS: 81,839
PSP: 44,739
Wii: 24,926
360: 26,525
PS3: 6,102

Weird. The second one includes a "last week's data over last year's data" modifier. Not quite ready to use this as a primary guide, yet. Still:

NEXT WEEK
DS: 105,000
PSP: 45,000
Wii: 28,000
360: 15,000
PS3: 16,000
TOTAL: 209,000

Full breakdown and charts for every result @ Chart Get!

 

[shykyoichi]

Which one is the top grosser for YTD sales? DS or PSP?

 

[BishopLamont]

Which one is the top grosser for YTD sales? DS or PSP?

PSP has about a 300k lead on the DS, I think.

 

[Rolf NB]

[about DS market saturation]

No.

Using PantherLotus's chart:


That significant drop in DS hardware sales from the prior years, that's saturation (plus a tiny bit of competitive pressure). Barring countermeasures like the DSi, it could only get worse.

 

[HK-47]

Damn it outsold the PS2 yet was selling week to week the same numbers as that machine in a good year. I'm sure companies would love saturation like that

 

[Rolf NB]

Damn it outsold the PS2 yet was selling week to week the same numbers as that machine in a good year. I'm sure companies would love saturation like that

Yes they do. And yet it is still saturation.

People in Japan still play their DSes. Its popularity hasn't waned. They are buying less of them only because most who would already did.
Explain it any other way.

 

[apujanata]

They're both rehashes, but City Folk is the rehash of the more successful game, so I'd guess it has the edge.

I predict that CTDS first week sales is significantly higher than AC first week, in Japan. Reasons :
- AC Wii reviews mentioned that it was mostly a rehashes AC DS, without major enhancement (there are some minor enhancement, but not big enough to make it feel NEW).
- I believe that AC DS # is very big because it is portable. Witness Big Brain Academy Wii sales # compared to Big Brain Academy DS.
- CTDS release on PS (or is it PS2 ?) was a long time ago. It is most certainly way longer than AC DS release.
- There are dedicated fans of SE that will buy this game big time in Japan.

I played AC DS, but I don't have any plan to buy AC Wii. I have plan to buy CT DS.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Leaked Media Create numbers from the site that last week leaked them (and they turned out to be true).

DSi    -     85,327
PSP    -     38,153
Wii    -     26,787
PS3    -     17,448
X360    -     7,983
PS2    -      5,421
DSL    -      3,559

1. NDS Kirby Ultra Super Deluxe             / [B]97,449[/B] /   363,102 69.69%
2. PS3 Way of Samurai 3                     / [B]81,047[/B] /    81,047 82.46%
3. NDS Tongari Boushi no Mahou no 365 Nichi / [B]71,914[/B] /    71,914 54.86%
4. NDS Shiren DS2                           / [B]45,327[/B] /    45,327 44.73%
5. PS3 Resistance 2                         / [B]33,584[/B] /    33,584 59.67%
6. NDS Nishimura Kyotaro Suspense 2         / [B]33,079[/B] /    33,079 38.21%
7. NDS Ryuusei no RockMan 3 Black Ace       / [B]33,067[/B] /    33,067 45.13%
8. NDS Rhythm Tengoku Gold                  / [B]30,434[/B] / 1,159,436 94.65%
9. NDS Wagamama Fashion Girls Mode          / [B]29,870[/B] /   183,431 91.53%
10.NDS Pokemon Platinum                     / [B]26,767 [/B]/ 1,917,117 96.53%

 

[BishopLamont]

Leaked Media Create numbers from the site that last week leaked them (and they turned out to be true).
8.　NDS Rhythm Tengoku Gold / 30,434 / 1,159,436　94.65%
9.　NDS Girls Mode / 29,870 / 183,431　91.53%
10. NDS Pokemon Platinum / 26,767 / 1,917,117　96.53%

These games are selling like crazy.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Leaked Media Create numbers from the site that last week leaked them (and they turned out to be true).

DSi 　　　85,327
PSP　　　38,153
Wii　　　26,787
PS3　　　17,448
X360　　　7,983
PS2　　　5,421
DSL　　　3,559

1.　NDS Kirby / 97,449 / 363,102　69.69%
2.　PS3 Way of Samurai 3 / 81,047 / 81,047 82.46%
3.　NDS Tongari Boushi no Mahou no 365 Nichi / 71,914 / 71,914　54.86%
4.　NDS Shiren DS2 / 45,327 / 45,327 44.73%
5.　PS3 Resistance 2 / 33,584 / 33,584 59.67%
6.　NDS Nishimura Kyotaro Suspense 2 / 33,079 / 33,079　38.21%
7.　NDS Ryuusei no RockMan 3 Black Ace / 33,067 / 33,067　45.13%
8.　NDS Rhythm Tengoku Gold / 30,434 / 1,159,436　94.65%
9.　NDS Girls Mode / 29,870 / 183,431　91.53%
10. NDS Pokemon Platinum / 26,767 / 1,917,117　96.53%

Cool, thx.

NDS is back again, 8 / 10. xD

 

[farnham]

I predict that CTDS first week sales is significantly higher than AC first week, in Japan. Reasons :
- AC Wii reviews mentioned that it was mostly a rehashes AC DS, without major enhancement (there are some minor enhancement, but not big enough to make it feel NEW).
- I believe that AC DS # is very big because it is portable. Witness Big Brain Academy Wii sales # compared to Big Brain Academy DS.
- CTDS release on PS (or is it PS2 ?) was a long time ago. It is most certainly way longer than AC DS release.
- There are dedicated fans of SE that will buy this game big time in Japan.

I played AC DS, but I don't have any plan to buy AC Wii. I have plan to buy CT DS.

AC WW was nothing more then AC GC ported over to DS

AC GC was nothing more then AC 64 ported over to GC

 

[Psychotext]

PS3 holding up well after the new bundle effects have worn off. I have no idea what that game is (No. 3) but that's good 1st week sales. DS has died... never expected to see that so quickly. 360 should be interesting next week.

 

[Spiegel]

2.　PS3 Way of Samurai 3 / 81,047 / 81,047 82.46%

Tenchu 5,6 wii cancelled

Tenchu PS3 confirmed

PS3　　　17,448

Not so bad

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

New titles shipments bolded (sold, shipped, sell through), MC data:

PS3 Way of Samurai 3                     / 81,047 /  [B]98,286[/B] 82.46%
NDS Tongari Boushi no Mahou no 365 Nichi / 71,914 / [B]131,086[/B] 54.86%
NDS Shiren DS2                           / 45,327 / [B]101,335[/B] 44.73%
PS3 Resistance 2                         / 33,584 /  [B]56,283[/B] 59.67%
NDS Nishimura Kyotaro Suspense 2         / 33,079 /  [B]86,572[/B] 38.21%
NDS Ryuusei no RockMan 3 Black Ace       / 33,067 /  [B]73,271[/B] 45.13%

 

[Captain Smoker]

Hardware Comparison Japan.

Rounded numbers = shipped
Non rounded = Media Create

GB(C)		32.430.000
NDS		24.055.296
PS2		21.495.013
FC		19.350.000
PSX		18.900.000
SFC		17.170.000
GBA		15.348.849
PSP		10.786.746
Wii		6.979.477
SS		5.800.000
N64		5.540.000
FCD		4.440.000
GCN		4.180.061
PCE		3.920.000
MD		3.580.000
WS		3.000.000
BB		2.697.000
PS3		2.420.897
DC		2.250.000
GG		1.780.000
ROM2		1.920.000
NG		1.000.000
360		754.832
3DO		720.000		[incl. other 3DO compatibles: 980.000]
VB		630.000
NGP		500.000
XBX		469.101
LA		420.000
FX		400.000
M-CD		400.000
Pippin Atmark	30.000

I've got the shipped data from 2chan.

 

[Parl]

Is DSi still short stocked?

 

[toypop]

But what's this:
板 = ?
互換機含め = ?
@ = ?

board = wii fit
incl other 3DO compatibles
Pippin atmark (Japanese name)

 

[Captain Smoker]

board = wii fit
incl other 3DO compatibles
Pippin atmark (Japanese name)

Ok, thx. ^^

I've updated it.

 

[Laguna]

Is DSi still short stocked?

weekly shipment is about 100k.

 

[RpgN]

Leaked Media Create numbers from the site that last week leaked them (and they turned out to be true).

DSi    -     85,327
PSP    -     38,153
Wii    -     26,787
PS3    -     17,448
X360    -     7,983
PS2    -      5,421
DSL    -      3,559

2. PS3 Way of Samurai 3                     / [B]81,047[/B] /    81,047 82.46%
[/QUOTE]

Is the DSi replacing the DSL? And the ps3 is doing pretty well, at least compared to the last few horrible weeks (or months?). 

And I really didn't see this coming from Way of Samurai 3. There are better games out there >_<

 

[donny2112]

[about DS market saturation]That significant drop in DS hardware sales from the prior years, that's saturation (plus a tiny bit of competitive pressure).

No, it's not. It's going from complete and utter sell out to only selling better than the PS2 in its prime. Do I need to get out the chart comparing PS2 to DS and proclaiming the PS2 to have been at saturation levels its entire life, again?

Yes they do. And yet it is still saturation.

No, it wasn't.

Explain it any other way.

Normality. The DS was only selling above typical levels for the top system in Japan from last generation.

Sheesh. I thought we squashed these ridiculous concepts of the DS being "saturated" many months ago.

 

[Rolf NB]

No, it's not. It's going from complete and utter sell out to only selling better than the PS2 in its prime. Do I need to get out the chart comparing PS2 to DS and proclaiming the PS2 to have been at saturation levels its entire life, again? Charts aren't very useful without context.

Won't support your position, so don't. A machine selling at unprecedented levels will only exhaust the applicable audience earlier, which is the exact opposite of what you're hoping to prove with it.
As a tangent, it's safe to assume that the DS has a bigger potential market than the PS2, due to being a handheld and thus more of a personal possession that isn't shared between people as much.

No, it wasn't.



Normality. The DS was only selling above typical levels for the top system in Japan from last generation.

Yes, thank you, I can see that too. It's no explanation at all why the sales have slowed down to less than half of last year's rate. What caused the change? Why have DS's sales become twice as normal as in 2006 and 2007?

Sheesh. I thought we squashed these ridiculous concepts of the DS being "saurated" many months ago.

Do you remember any solid arguments that could perform such squashing?

 

[donny2112]

Do you remember any solid arguments that could perform such squashing?

Yeah. The one you're dismissing. Historical precedence cannot be so easily tossed aside. The DS was selling way above the norm. It was not setting a new norm.

Let's consider what would've happened for the overall market if the DS really was saturated.

1) The PSP doesn't sell primarily for store-bought software, so it couldn't have been considered the top-selling video game system in Japan.
2) The next higher up system was the DS, and it was "saturated."
3) If the top-selling video game system is saturated and the other video game systems aren't picking up the slack, that means the entire market is saturated.

Therefore, the conclusion flows toward the idea that the entire store-bought video game market has been saturated since the DS came down to reality last August. Hmmm.

The fallacy is in believing that the exception was actually a new norm.

Edit:
Here's the graph that you incorrectly dismiss, for reference.

Starting from May in each year, going for 25 weeks. PS2 in 2003/2004/2005/2006 vs. DSL in 2008. Only PS2 in 2003 has any significant period above DSL. The fall at the end for DSL precisely matches the announcement of the DSi.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

- CTDS release on PS (or is it PS2 ?) was a long time ago. It is most certainly way longer than AC DS release.
- There are dedicated fans of SE that will buy this game big time in Japan.

I played AC DS, but I don't have any plan to buy AC Wii. I have plan to buy CT DS.

Most of this goes for Final Fantasy IV, V, and VI as well, but they didn't put out huge numbers. Thought CT has an advantage in that the DS's successor hasn't been out for a few years, unlike the FF Advance ports.

Starting from May in each year, going for 25 weeks. PS2 in 2003/2004/2005/2006 vs. DSL in 2008. Only PS2 in 2003 has any significant period above DSL. The fall at the end for DSL precisely matches the announcement of the DSi.

I was curious what that PS2 bump to 75K was. I can't tell in particular what it is, and the even stranger thing is that Famitsu and Media Create numbers look to be drastically different for that week. 52K vs 76K. That's a crazy enough difference I wonder if the game of telephone that ended up with the numbers in the database ended up with an error for that week.

 

[Rolf NB]

Yeah. The ones you're dismissing. You are wrong to dismiss them. Historical precedence cannot be so easily tossed aside, especially when it's because someone becomes fascinated with a quick and easy and wrong explanation for the DS no longer selling outrageously above all past systems and being completely sold out for over a year.

What I'm tossing aside is you trying to prove to me that the DS is really, really successful. I know that it is and we don't have to spend time on that. Saying it is close enough to saturation to visibly slow down does not mean "Nintendo DS bad bad fail", it just means that 24 million units might be coming close to what the Japanese market can absorb. "Close" meaning "close enough to cause the slowdown we have observed", mind you, and that may mean it could still go on to 30 million, 35 million, who knows, maybe even 40, but at a significantly slowed pace.

Let's say the DS was saturated. Let's consider what that means the the Japanese market.

1) The PSP doesn't sell primarily for UMD software, so it couldn't have been considered the top-selling video game system in Japan.
2) The next higher up system was the DS, and it was saturated.
3) If the top-selling video game system is saturated and the other video game systems aren't picking up the slack, that means the entire market is saturated.

That doesn't make a lick of sense. There's no rule that forces consumers to buy other systems just because they already own a DS. They are just as likely to use their entertainment money to buy more software for the machine(s) they already own. Even if there were a force that would drive consumers to adopt a competing system, why would it correlate with market saturation? An individual either owns or does not own a DS, maybe early, maybe late, maybe happy, maybe not so much, but either way, they won't ask themselves "Do enough other people own a DS that I need to buy a PSP now?". That just doesn't compute.

Therefore, you're essentially saying that the entire store-bought video game market has been saturated since the DS came down to reality last August. Hmmm.

Your fallacy is in believing that the exception was actually the norm.

Quotes or it didn't happen. And no Stumpokapowian subtext idiocy please.

 

[donny2112]

Quotes or it didn't happen. And no Stumpokapowian subtext idiocy please.

You are claiming that the DS is down from what it should be (i.e. saturation) by using the completely sold out levels as the basis for what it should be. That is incorrect.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Quotes or it didn't happen. And no Stumpokapowian subtext idiocy please.

love you too whoever you are

 

[Rolf NB]

You are claiming that the DS is down from what it should be (i.e. saturation) by using the completely sold out levels as the basis for what it should be. That is incorrect.

I don't like the "should". I'd prefer to say it is below what it could sell when falsely assuming an infinite market.

I don't know what that's supposed to tell me though. I don't believe in demand being driven by perceived scarcity, not to those extents (+100~150%), and not for such a long period of time (2 years). If I have to decide whether it sold out because it sold twice as well or if it sold twice as well because it sold out, I'll definitely pick the former. Thus "completely sold out levels" doesn't mean anything other than "very high sales", an angle we've already treaded I believe.
So what's your opinion on why sales became more than twice as normal in 2008 as they were in 2007?

 

[donny2112]

So what's your opinion on why sales became more than twice as normal in 2008 as they were in 2007?

DS was sold out until Golden Week 2007 and was still consistently > 100K until the August holiday. Wii was sold out until the August holiday. Of course yoy comparisons will be down from that.

.

 

[charlequin]

Saying it is close enough to saturation to visibly slow down does not mean "Nintendo DS bad bad fail", it just means that 24 million units might be coming close to what the Japanese market can absorb.

What donny is trying to explain to you is that weekly sales have a direct relation to remaining unmet demand, not a relative one based on what percentage they make up of historical sales.

Generally speaking, outside of unusual spikes (like hardware launches), people don't sate their demand for a hardware system all at once; they decide to get one, and then go buy it at some point within the next 0-6 months, which averages out to all those nice even weekly sales we see. (By far the most reasonable explanation for the 100k+ weeks of DS sales are that a spike of unexpected demand drove many people to try to buy them more quickly than normal, and the sales finally sank down to a more consistent rate when that gigantic spike had finally depleted itself.)

Without external influence, those sales tend to taper off at a pretty consistent rate -- if we look at the PS2, for example, it tended to taper off at around 10k a year from 2005 onwards.

So take the DS. Even if it's at a weekly average of, say, 60k right now, and it starts going into decline almost immediately on 01/01/2009, it's still going to sell something like twelve million more units before it goes kaput, and that's assuming such a decline that we have no specific evidence for. In other words, at this moment, there are probably five times as many as yet untapped DS buyers as there are total buyers to date of the Playstation 3, and twelve times as many untapped DS buyers as there will ever be buyers of the Xbox 360.

Can you see why all of this means that "saturation" is a silly thing to call the status of the DS in Japan?

Quotes or it didn't happen. And no Stumpokapowian subtext idiocy please.

lolz

 

[charlequin]

So what's your opinion on why sales became more than twice as normal in 2008 as they were in 2007?

Look at it this way. As I said above, on a given week, some reasonably predictable portion of the outstanding demand "comes due" as people decide to pick this particular week to buy; when there are no incentives (sales, new colors) or disincentives (new model coming soon) this tends to produce a very even distribution overall of weekly sales, largely shaped by overall retail trends.

When the DS' disruptive software suite (Brain Training, etc.) hit, it produced a spike of new, unprecedented demand: there were probably something like 8 million people who decided all of a sudden that they needed a DS and needed it right away -- and this is in addition to an uptick in demand from the regular crowd of people who only want a DS at "some point" in the next 0-60 weeks.

So all of a sudden, instead of a weekly demand of 50k people drawing down a potential supply of like 70k, there's a constantly refreshed weekly demand of 100k people and a pent-up demand of 8 million people who all want to have the system the instant that it hits the shelves, all drawing down that same 70k weekly supply.

As long as the weekly production is lower than the new weekly demand, that pent-up demand just gets bigger. Even once the production outstrips it, it's still like paying off a loan -- covering the interest (new weekly demand) plus paying off a portion of the principal (pent-up demand) each week. As long as this is happening, it's basically impossible to figure out the actual weekly demand from sales numbers because whatever extra production you throw out there is just getting snapped up by irritated people who really wanted a DS six months or a year ago but will take it now, thank you very much.

In reality, we saw the DS remain in a constant state of sellout for about two years, and at the end of that time its sales decreased because the pent-up demand was met -- now what we were finally seeing for the first time was the actual weekly demand for the system, which it turns out was a ways above the PS2 on average but way below what it had actually been selling weekly.

It's possible that the rate at which the DS is selling now is measurably and distinctly lower than its height and continuing to fall, but even so, the amount of future demand still unmet suggested by its current sales figures is still going to make up something like 30% of its end-of-lifetime sales-to-date.

 

[KajunW]

Let me get some data to run this through. I'm ridiculously geeking out right now, and also realize that this is absurd to even try. Let me know if any of you have any ideas.

With so many data points you should seriously consider forecasting with time series analysis.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Just to defend bcn-ron - he isn't saying that DS's sales aren't high, because they are. You'd have to be stupid to think otherwise.

He's saying that sales have slowed down to levels where Nintendo can actually see the ceiling - something their current business model may not account for or deem undesirable (they want sustained sales rather than the traditional product life cycle). When Iwata was talking about a DS for every person, he meant it. Just because the ceiling is really high doesn't mean their ambition cannot be higher.

In its current form, sales of the DS are slowing down to reveal the size of the total market. However large this may be, the ceiling is looking to be lower than the total current population of Japan. From a strategic viewpoint, that's a bad thing, because that's a missed opportunity for growth.

Remember, market saturation is an ongoing process - you never actually reach it and it starts when sales have hit their peak. From Nintendo's point of view, sales of the DS Lite have reached maturity and are going into decline. Nintendo want to pre-empt that decline; hence the DSi.

 

[Kagari]

Is the DSi replacing the DSL? And the ps3 is doing pretty well, at least compared to the last few horrible weeks (or months?).

And I really didn't see this coming from Way of Samurai 3. There are better games out there >_<

The PS2 ones did decently.

 

[charlequin]

He's saying that sales have slowed down to levels where Nintendo can actually see the ceiling

Yes, and I'm saying that's a conclusion based on unreasonable suppositions. I don't think there's good reason to believe that the DS platform truly has reached a point at which sales are inevitably sliding down (especially with the DSi, but even without it) and as a result I don't think suggesting that the system is "saturated" is accurate in any way. At best, I think you can say that the fad/blue-ocean "bounce" is entirely worn off and the DS is back to selling in correlation to recent and upcoming releases like any other system.

 

[justchris]

What I'm tossing aside is you trying to prove to me that the DS is really, really successful. I know that it is and we don't have to spend time on that. Saying it is close enough to saturation to visibly slow down does not mean "Nintendo DS bad bad fail", it just means that 24 million units might be coming close to what the Japanese market can absorb. "Close" meaning "close enough to cause the slowdown we have observed", mind you, and that may mean it could still go on to 30 million, 35 million, who knows, maybe even 40, but at a significantly slowed pace.

Wait, can you provide a dictionary definition of the word saturation that supports your claim that a console going from 24 million sold to 40 million sold, ie nearly doubling it's install base, was at saturation having only reached 60% of it's potential sales?

 

[shykyoichi]

When Iwata was talking about a DS for every person, he meant it.

I don't think he meant that literally. Even with the DS' installed base and market share, it still doesn't have the 100% "household presence". I think nothing has even reached that high even other media like TV and radio.