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[JoshuaJSlone]

Satoru Iwata said they expected the Wii to be a secondary console alongside PS3 and 360. It was never intended to be a market leader console and not designed as such.

That Nintendo's inabliity to capitalise on the Wii's commercial success is not bearing fruit is because it was never intended to be a market leader.

Part of me agrees that this is how things played out. However, another part says that anyone planning to settle for a profitable second/third wouldn't have been pushing for those record launch production numbers.

 

[donny2112]

Yay someone gets it!

It's a question of when Nintendo started screwing up the Wii in Japan. You know it started two years ago. It seems like most people just assume it's a recent thing (e.g. since the PS3 Slim).

 

[timetokill]

They expected it would be a secondary console for the core gamer set, of course. It is the only group that really values graphics over everything else.

But they also expected that the Wii would be the ONLY console for the vast majority of the blue ocean they were targeting. Because to those groups, the 360/PS3 are completely irrelevant.

It isn't at all accurate to say Nintendo didn't expect market success. Sure, they might not have expected it to the degree in which they got it... but I think their main problem was actually in maintaining the expanded market as opposed to capturing the core one. Nintendo has never captured the core one, and their mission this generation was to make it irrelevant for them to personally do it.

For them to rely on getting the core customers en masse is not part of their success strategy.

 

[grandjedi6]

:lol @ people trying to argue that the Wii's performance somehow isn't Nintendo's cause.

 

[schuelma]

:lol @ people trying to argue that the Wii's performance somehow isn't Nintendo's cause.

I think 3rd parties share in the blame, but yeah at the end of the day Nintendo held all the cards in 2007 and the software lineup has by and large not improved.

 

[Hero of Legend]

You're all forgetting something, Nintendo's done quite a bit with 3rd Parties.

Are you all forgetting:

Span Smasher = Artoon
Zangeki = Sandlot
Line Attack Heroes = Grezzo
Cosmic Walker = Gaia

Nintendo's been rounding up and publishing (and even organized them in the first place?) quite a few 3rd Party games, as they did with Endless Ocean by Arika beforehand.

So it's not like they're doing nothing, but I agree they need to do something more, but the above's a good start.

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

I think 3rd parties share in the blame, but yeah at the end of the day Nintendo held all the cards in 2007 and the software lineup has by and large not improved.

I don't know, I tend to think that ultimately the state of a platform rests on the platform holder. I don't see how third parties can share the 'blame' when they don't have any obligation or responsibility towards it. They are the only ones with a clear vested interest in their platform suceeding.

Saying that, it's only really now that it's affecting Nintendo's bottom line that I would say that there is anything to be blamed in the first place. The whole thing with third parties seems to revolve around a lack of core games, but why should there be core games in the first place? If Nintendo were making money hand over fist by targetting the more casual gamer, why is that considered wrong, other than in the light of the core Wii owners sense of entitlement?

 

[Regulus Tera]

You're all forgettting something, Nintendo's done quite a bit with 3rd Parties.

Are you all forgetting:

Span Smasher = Artoon
Zangeki = Sandlot
Line Attack Heroes = Grezzo
Cosmic Walker = Gaia

Nintendo's been rounding up and publishing (and even organized them in the first place?) quite a few 3rd Party games, as they did with Endless Ocean by Arika beforehand.

So it's not like they're doing nothing, but I agree they need to do something more, but the above's a good start.

As Sin and Punishment: Successor to the Sky proved, teaming with a third party means shit if you don't actually promote their games.

 

[wrowa]

As Sin and Punishment: Successor to the Sky proved, teaming with a third party means shit if you don't actually promote their games.

That was already proven by Takt of Magic and Another Code R.

 

[Hero of Legend]

That was already proven by Takt of Magic and Another Code R.

Forgot about that one.

 

[Regulus Tera]

That was already proven by Takt of Magic and Another Code R.

Hush, I'm angsting here.

 

[schuelma]

I don't know, I tend to think that ultimately the state of a platform rests on the platform holder. I don't see how third parties can share the 'blame' when they don't have any obligation or responsibility towards it. They are the only ones with a clear vested interest in their platform suceeding.

I understand that point of view, but I think that if third parties had devoted resources towards the Wii from the very beginning they could have better established a healthy ecosystem for 3rd party games not requiring HD budgets.

 

[[Nintex]]

Forgot about that one.

Just like Nintendo

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

I understand that point of view, but I think that if third parties had devoted resources towards the Wii from the very beginning they could have better established a healthy ecosystem for 3rd party games not requiring HD budgets.

See, I still question why they should have put more into creating a healthy ecosystem on the Wii versus sticking to the DS, or developing the healthy ecosystem on the PSP, or even sticking with the PS2 and maintaining the ecosystem there, if it was HD budgets they wanted to avoid?

 

[schuelma]

See, I still question why they should have put more into creating a healthy ecosystem on the Wii versus sticking to the DS, or developing the healthy ecosystem on the PSP, or even sticking with the PS2 and maintaining the ecosystem there, if it was HD budgets they wanted to avoid?

Oh I agree with you that right now for a primarily Japanese game portables are usually the way to go. But for whatever reason there are plenty of publishers and developers making those games for consoles and I think that the Wii could have been a good alternative if supported right at the start, when its only rival was the DS.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

:lol @ people trying to argue that the Wii's performance somehow isn't Nintendo's cause.

Well, I suppose 8 million isn't bad for one software publisher to take primary credit/blame for in three years.

 

[Somnid]

To be fair in some crazy alternate reality with PS2 competing at the same time it's be fucked as well. I think DS just killed consoles in general. Hell you can charge full next-gen price on a DS game and use only a fraction of the development budget and it'll sell better.

Nintendo certainly slid a bit trying to find new footing to push Wii in the last year or so. They were probably expecting 3rd parties to fill in those gaps once it hit critical mass (afterall 3rd parties sold PS2, not necessarily Sony themselves). I'd agree with Schuelma, part of it is that while Nintendo is incredibly strong, they can't keep making hit after hit in short periods of time by themselves, nobody can. 3rd parties probably didn't want to to dump all that money they invested in HD consoles so they continue to snub Wii while their HD games under-perform.

 

[Sage00]

To be fair in some crazy alternate reality with PS2 competing at the same time it's be fucked as well. I think DS just killed consoles in general. Hell you can charge full next-gen price on a DS game and use only a fraction of the development budget and it'll sell better.

This argument has been used a few times and just doesn't hold up. Look at the games from third parties PS3/360 have, despite being many times more expensive to develop for than Wii never mind DS. If Wii had the other consoles' support, which it -should- since it's both cheaper to develop for and has higher potential sales, it wouldn't be in the position it's in. That's Nintendo's fault for not courting third parties properly.

 

[schuelma]

On another note, man December is going to be fun. I'm getting more and more bullish on NSMB Wii at least as a software seller. Will also be interesting to see just how high PS3 gets for FF13. Over 150K? Over 200K?

 

[Spiegel]

On another note, man December is going to be fun. I'm getting more and more bullish on NSMB Wii at least as a software seller. Will also be interesting to see just how high PS3 gets for FF13. Over 150K? Over 200K?

With FFX, PS2 did 156,471 in July.
Now if we add the FF effect + December, PS3 should do over 200k

 

[schuelma]

With FFX, PS2 did 156,471 in July.
Now if we add the FF effect + December, PS3 should do over 200k

Thanks..didn't know it got that high for FFX. Will be interesting.

 

[schuelma]

Oh Spiegel- do you have the data for what PS2 was doing in the weeks before FFX came out?

 

[Saint Gregory]

This argument has been used a few times and just doesn't hold up. Look at the games from third parties PS3/360 have, despite being many times more expensive to develop for than Wii never mind DS. If Wii had the other consoles' support, which it -should- since it's both cheaper to develop for and has higher potential sales, it wouldn't be in the position it's in. That's Nintendo's fault for not courting third parties properly.

I think the real problem is that Nintendo always has been a software developer first and a hardware manufactuer second. As long as that's the case they will never have the same relationship with 3rd parties that MS and Sony do. MS and Sony see 3rd parties as parnters while Nintendo sees them as competition at best and adversaries at worst.

Even still I'm not sure if things are nearly as bad as these recent MC threads make it sound. Wasn't there a time when the DS seemed to be in decline and the PSP was on fire week after week? The PSP did make an amazing comeback but it hardly changed much. At most it made things more difficult for the Wii.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Oh Spiegel- do you have the data for what PS2 was doing in the weeks before FFX came out?

Famitsu says:

21k
24k
33k
43k
75k
77k
79k
88k
156k (Final Fantasy X)
103k
75k
69k
69k
60k
51k
44k
45k (Final Fantasy X out of top 20)

 

[schuelma]

Famitsu says:

21k
24k
33k
43k
75k
77k
79k
88k
156k (Final Fantasy X)
103k
75k
69k
69k
60k
51k
44k
45k (Final Fantasy X out of top 20)

Thanks. I don't think PS3 is going to be starting out as high in the weeks before, but as Spiegel said it will be the holiday season. I think doing about the same as what the PS2 did sounds about right to me.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

At least we've gotten past the point where LoudNinja shows up every week with a drumroll and hard nipples in anticipation of Dragona posting that chart. At least, I think we are.

Get it right, I'm the ambassador and staunch supporter of the Dragona initiative :lol

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

With FFX, PS2 did 156,471 in July.
Now if we add the FF effect + December, PS3 should do over 200k

To make it clearer how big a call this is, 200+K is something PS2 and Wii have done ~5 times each. However, when it did happen it was always that time of year (or launch).

 

[Dragona Akehi]

It's a question of when Nintendo started screwing up the Wii in Japan. You know it started two years ago. It seems like most people just assume it's a recent thing (e.g. since the PS3 Slim).

Oh of course it started over two years ago, but you cannot deny that Sony did manage to get some momentum moving, which may never had happened if Nintendo had remained on the ball and not left a power vacuum, as it were, in the console sphere.

I think 3rd parties share in the blame, but yeah at the end of the day Nintendo held all the cards in 2007 and the software lineup has by and large not improved.

Well, they only share in the blame because they were being fucking fuck-tards from planet fucktonia. However, Nintendo fucked up more in not sending a few money-hats in the larger and medium sized publishers' way. It wasn't unreasonable to think in early-to-mid 2007 that 3rd parties would "get it" and throw support Wii's way, but by the middle of 2007, Nintendo should have taken steps to make sure they did get 3rd parties on the Wii. They didn't, and now we're where we are.

Nintendo done fucked up.

You're all forgetting something, Nintendo's done quite a bit with 3rd Parties.

Are you all forgetting:

Span Smasher = Artoon
Zangeki = Sandlot
Line Attack Heroes = Grezzo
Cosmic Walker = Gaia

Nintendo's been rounding up and publishing (and even organized them in the first place?) quite a few 3rd Party games, as they did with Endless Ocean by Arika beforehand.

So it's not like they're doing nothing, but I agree they need to do something more, but the above's a good start.

 

[Yoboman]

Thanks. I don't think PS3 is going to be starting out as high in the weeks before, but as Spiegel said it will be the holiday season. I think doing about the same as what the PS2 did sounds about right to me.

That's in July though, numbers should be quite a bit higher at their peak

 

[BlazingDarkness]

I noticed there really isn't many notable JRPGs on the Wii, it's seriously slim pickings on that front - and doesn't seem to be picking up much in the future (unlike 2010 for the PS3)

 

[schuelma]

It wasn't unreasonable to think in early-to-mid 2007 that 3rd parties would "get it" and throw support Wii's way, but by the middle of 2007, Nintendo should have taken steps to make sure they did get 3rd parties on the Wii. They didn't, and now we're where we are.

Nintendo done fucked up.

I think there is some evidence that either through Nintendo's efforts or 3rd party common sense there were a few franchises moved- Monster Hunter, Tales, Samurai Warriors. The issue, and this is all speculation, but the issue is that those franchises took so long to come out as to possibly be rendered useless altogether. If those franchises had found a way to come out in 2008 instead of holiday 2009 I think that might have been soon enough to start something. Now maybe its unrealistic to expect such a quick turnaround, but there you go. As it is now, even if those games succeed there won't be any fruit bearing for a while anyways.

 

[Loudninja]

Get it right, I'm the ambassador and staunch supporter of the Dragona initiative :lol

I am still confuse.

 

[schuelma]

That's in July though, numbers should be quite a bit higher at their peak

That's why I mentioned it being the holiday season.

Edit- you mean the numbers for PS3 are going to start rising soon? I agree, but I'm skeptical that they will be up to 80K or so before FF13 releases.

 

[schuelma]

I noticed there really isn't many notable JRPGs on the Wii, it's seriously slim pickings on that front - and doesn't seem to be picking up much in the future (unlike 2010 for the PS3)

Yeah, that's the big absence I see. By far the weakest JRPG lineup of any system. It took 3 years to get an honest to goodness relatively high profile traditional RPG

 

[donny2112]

Question for bttb or anyone else who picked up the most recent Famitsu:

Is Love Plus listed in the Top 30 for the week of Nov 2-8? Is it listed at 4,798 / 156,565?

It's not on the online page, but that's an updated LTD from GDM. A few weeks ago, the online listing got something wrong that GDM got right, so I'm wondering if it happened again. Thanks!

 

[Kandinsky]

I am still confuse.

Do the PS3 forums still exist?

 

[Dragona Akehi]

I think there is some evidence that either through Nintendo's efforts or 3rd party common sense there were a few franchises moved- Monster Hunter, Tales, Samurai Warriors. The issue, and this is all speculation, but the issue is that those franchises took so long to come out as to possibly be rendered useless altogether. If those franchises had found a way to come out in 2008 instead of holiday 2009 I think that might have been soon enough to start something. Now maybe its unrealistic to expect such a quick turnaround, but there you go. As it is now, even if those games succeed there won't be any fruit bearing for a while anyways.

Yes, but mid-2007 was already too late, as far as Nintendo internally should have been concerned. By April 2007 Nintendo should have started to properly coax out announcements.

However they didn't, and they also pursued their idiotic "don't tell anyone shit till two months before release" crap on top of it.

 

[schuelma]

Yes, but mid-2007 was already too late, as far as Nintendo internally should have been concerned. By April 2007 Nintendo should have started to properly coax out announcements.

However they didn't, and they also pursued their idiotic "don't tell anyone shit till two months before release" crap on top of it.

Agreed on all fronts.

Nintendo's stealth release policy for all but the biggest games just makes zero sense to me.

 

[Yoboman]

That's why I mentioned it being the holiday season.

Edit- you mean the numbers for PS3 are going to start rising soon? I agree, but I'm skeptical that they will be up to 80K or so before FF13 releases.

They'll rise a bit, I agree the leading weeks might not be as higher but I think the week FFXIII comes out will peak higher than the week FFX came out

 

[Yoboman]

Nintendo's the only company that still releases shipment numbers divided by region. Just looking at the sales LTD, it's just under half of what PS1 was at by this point.

I can imagine PS3 graphing in a similar way at the end. With probably a lower LTD in the end

 

[Stumpokapow]

I don't think it makes sense to argue that Nintendo's record of publishing titles developed by third parties has anything to do with Nintendo's record of actually dealing with third parties.

When someone says Microsoft is good with third parties, they're not talking about Ninja Blade or Kingdom Under Fire.

 

[Hero of Legend]

I don't think it makes sense to argue that Nintendo's record of publishing titles developed by third parties has anything to do with Nintendo's record of actually dealing with third parties.

When someone says Microsoft is good with third parties, they're not talking about Ninja Blade or Kingdom Under Fire.

You have a point there.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

You have a point there.

But the question is, will you learn from it?

 

[vicissitudes]

Yes, but mid-2007 was already too late, as far as Nintendo internally should have been concerned. By April 2007 Nintendo should have started to properly coax out announcements.

However they didn't, and they also pursued their idiotic "don't tell anyone shit till two months before release" crap on top of it.

Let's not forget that the Wii was supply constrained in most of the world until well into 2008. Everyone thought it was going to be a fad, even Nintendo, who refused to ramp up production until mid-2008. Back in 2007, no one knew if the Wii would keep up its insane sales or fizzle out, so Nintendo understandably tried to just ride the wave instead of aggressively courting 3rd parties.

 

[donny2112]

Back in 2007, no one knew if the Wii would keep up its insane sales or fizzle out, so Nintendo understandably tried to just ride the wave instead of aggressively courting 3rd parties.

We knew that Wii was fizzling out in Japan by Fall 2007. Nintendo still hasn't taken pretty much any Japan-specific actions to correct that. U.S., it's doing fine to still selling gangbusters. It seems like it's still doing okay in Europe, though reduced from last year. Japan is the glaring issue (and has been for a couple of years now), though, and the one Nintendo hasn't done nearly enough to address.

 

[Yoboman]

We knew that Wii was fizzling out in Japan by Fall 2007. Nintendo still hasn't taken pretty much any Japan-specific actions to correct that. U.S., it's doing fine to still selling gangbusters. It seems like it's still doing okay in Europe, though reduced from last year. Japan is the glaring issue (and has been for a couple of years now), though, and the one Nintendo hasn't done nearly enough to address.

Japan always seems to lead the way in these market trends. I can see America and Europe falling the same way but they are still easily at a repairable point, and I think Nintendo might get there in time if they get their act together and will see consistent returns

 

[Grampa Simpson]

We knew that Wii was fizzling out in Japan by Fall 2007. Nintendo still hasn't taken pretty much any Japan-specific actions to correct that. U.S., it's doing fine to still selling gangbusters. It seems like it's still doing okay in Europe, though reduced from last year. Japan is the glaring issue (and has been for a couple of years now), though, and the one Nintendo hasn't done nearly enough to address.

MHTri and DQX. Both huge Japan-specific actions. Not enough? Probably. But to say they did nothing would be incorrect.

 

[Road]

Question for bttb or anyone else who picked up the most recent Famitsu:

Is Love Plus listed in the Top 30 for the week of Nov 2-8? Is it listed at 4,798 / 156,565?

It's not on the online page, but that's an updated LTD from GDM. A few weeks ago, the online listing got something wrong that GDM got right, so I'm wondering if it happened again. Thanks!

Doesn't exactly answer the question, but, as further evidence, Geimin also has the update for Love Plus on their 2009 ranking (before).

And you may noticed they don't have MKWii LTD updated to the last one that appeared online (2,355,816).

Considering 4,798 is more than 4,359 (duh), it would make sense if Love Plus was in the Top 30 and pushed MKWii out of it. In any case, you're better off waiting for someone that has the magazine. Hehe

 

[vicissitudes]

We knew that Wii was fizzling out in Japan by Fall 2007. Nintendo still hasn't taken pretty much any Japan-specific actions to correct that. U.S., it's doing fine to still selling gangbusters. It seems like it's still doing okay in Europe, though reduced from last year. Japan is the glaring issue (and has been for a couple of years now), though, and the one Nintendo hasn't done nearly enough to address.

Let me break this down more. I think it could be attributed to several reasons:

1. Nintendo didn't expect the Wii to be the market leader this gen. Even in 2007 they didn't know if it would keep selling or start to settle down into 2nd place. Since Nintendo didn't think the Wii would keep selling that well anyway, might as well not try and do what they always do best: rely on 1st party games.

2. Up until this year, the Wii was crushing the competition in Japan anyway, so there was no urgency to address sales. Look at the sales last year up to this point (posted 2 pages back): Wii was selling almost as much as the DS for most of 2008 in Japan.

3. There were shortages WW in 2007 and part of 2008, so they were busy addressing supply issues rather than try to create more demand. If the Wii sells less in Japan, that just means more shipments for US/EU.

Something else to consider: even if the Wii never recovers in Japan, so what? It would take a miracle for the PS3 to catch up LTD anyway, and it's not like it could lose more 3rd party support than it has now anyway. Japan HW sales are still minute compared to US and Europe, where the Wii is still selling great. Sure, Nintendo would like to sell more Wii's in Japan, but is it such a big issue? Would it really be worth all the trouble of getting all the 3rd parties on board?

Japan always seems to lead the way in these market trends. I can see America and Europe falling the same way but they are still easily at a repairable point, and I think Nintendo might get there in time if they get their act together and will see consistent returns

Not necessarily. PSP was beating the DS for most of 2008 in Japan, but we all know how much that affected the handheld war. I can easily see something similar happening to PS3 vs. Wii, where they stay somewhat close in Japan but Wii destroys PS3 worldwide.

 

[schuelma]

We knew that Wii was fizzling out in Japan by Fall 2007. .

I think that is overstating things a bit. It had a bad 2 months or so when demand was met, but starting with Wii Fit it had a massive holiday and sold 40K plus for most of 2008. I mean, short term, from Nov, 2007 through April 2008 Nintendo released Galaxy, WiiFit, Smash Bros, and Mario Kart in Japan. Don't know how much more they could have done for that period.