vicissitudes
Banned
Str0ngStyle said:
Yeahhhh.....there's a reason you're a junior.
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Media Create Sales: Sep 7-13, 2009
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Yeahhhh.....there's a reason you're a junior.
test_account
XP-39C²
Is the Wii concidered as a high price in Japan? In my country, the Wii costs equivalent to about $330 - $400 US dollars (price can variate, sometimes some stores have sales/special offers etc.) and i actually think that this is an ok price 
It is not exactly very cheap, but i dont think that it is very expencive either.
In comparison, the PS3 costs about $475 - $500. The Xbox 360 Elite costs something around $390 if i am not mistaken and the Xbox 360 Arcade costs about $237. The PS2 costs about $136.
New PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii games usually costs like $85 - $100 as well (there are sometimes sales/special offers in some stores, but $85 - $100 is a common price on many games at least).
EDIT: These prices are based on today's currency conversion at www.xe.com by the way
It is not exactly very cheap, but i dont think that it is very expencive either.In comparison, the PS3 costs about $475 - $500. The Xbox 360 Elite costs something around $390 if i am not mistaken and the Xbox 360 Arcade costs about $237. The PS2 costs about $136.
New PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii games usually costs like $85 - $100 as well (there are sometimes sales/special offers in some stores, but $85 - $100 is a common price on many games at least).
EDIT: These prices are based on today's currency conversion at www.xe.com by the way
If you include the hardware sales for the same week when FFXIII gets released, i would guess that the PS3 userbase is somewhere around 3.8 million - 4 million.AdventureRacing said:
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Kotaku incorrectly claims that Tales of Vesperia has the highest first day sales for a Tales game ever.
This claim was vetted by looking at the first day sales of a half-dozen Tales games and deciding that since this one is higher, it must be the highest.
No attempt was made to look up any information for any of the Tales games before the current generation.
This claim was vetted by looking at the first day sales of a half-dozen Tales games and deciding that since this one is higher, it must be the highest.
No attempt was made to look up any information for any of the Tales games before the current generation.
AdventureRacing
Member
test_account said:
If that's the case 2 million certainly isn't a given.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ye, i dont think that 2 million is 100% given i agree, especially not when it comes to the first release, maybe some re-releases can get FFXIII over 2 million? Both FFX and FF12 both sold about 2.3 million copies (not counting "Best" re-releases etc.). If FFXIII sells less than 2 million copies, it means that hundreds of thousands of people didnt buy a new copy of FFXIII compared to how many people who bought a new copy of FFX and FF12 . That sounds like a pretty big drop in the Final Fantasy fanbase (they can buy the game used though), at least in my opinion, but who knows if this big drop will happend?AdventureRacing said:
The PS3 should be at a more affordable price now, so i dont know how much the price is stopping the Final Fantasy fans from buying a PS3 and a new copy of FFXIII. I dont really have any prediction myself on how much i think that FFXIII will sell in Japan, but i think that it shall be interesting to see how much FFXII will sell at least
They obviously do that on purpose because Sinobi (where they got the info) clearly states it's the biggest among Tales games released since 2007.Stumpokapow said:
As for Famitsu's estimates, they started low balling MH3 too and raised it as it got closer to the release. So, all is not lost for FFXIII. There are still two months to raise that estimates. Haha
Less than 1 million first week would be a disaster.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Road said:
*shakes head*
It's bad enough to be using a Google Translation of a source you can't understand to write a story with no actual reliable translation of it, it's worse to boldly state something the source doesn't even say to begin with.
The Wii does have the highest selling software.DR2K said:
This is bs. Why should third party x care more about the sales of third party y than sales of first party? It's not like the Wii installed base is made up of people that only wants Nintendo games, since most of them didn't even own a Nintendo console last gen. Wii has gotten exactly one major third party release with the same franchise strength as the biggest PS3 third party games.DR2K said:
Stumpokapow said:
I don't think it really matters. This is Kotaku we're talking about. It's shocking if it's actually a news site like 1up or whatever, but this is like bitching that The Sun didn't check their sources before running a front page article saying Prince Charles was seen dating a man.
I see the debate continued a long after I logged out. Dalthien has pretty much covered me but Ill expand a little bit.
First of all where did I say I give credit to the Wii third party sales? I posted a more detailed comparison between Wii and PS3 to show that the statement PS3>>Wii is wrong, since the previous posted numbers were lacking and misleading.
Now about the big lies of this generation:
1. Nintendo is very strong at their systems, so every other publisher must turn their sources to other consoles.
Ive said it many times but it seems some people just dont want to understand it. Everyone competes with everyone and each generations leader always has the lions share of software sales. The previous two generations Nintendo wasnt the major player of the market. N64, GC and GBA sold well but definitely had a big drop in sales comparing to NES, SNES and GB. Third parties could turn to the market leaders (PS1 and PS2) and wouldnt have to compete directly with Nintendo, since the huge userbase these systems had was enough to equal the lack of Japans first publisher from them.
This generation things have changed. Nintendo has the clear winner (DS) and a follower-up (Wii), which certainly isnt as distant as N64 or GC but more close to GBA. Nintendo has the lion share of software sales. The idea that the games for PS3, 360 or even PSP stay out of the competition with Nintendo simply doesnt exist. If you want to ignore 1st party sales when referring to DS or Wii do it, but Japanese consumers definitely dont.
2. The attach ratio of Wii for third parties comparing to PS3.
Who cares? Definitely not the publishers. Thats one of the stupidest things Ive heard. With this logic if 1 mil sales for FF XIII is as success for PS3, the same game would have to sell 2,4 mil on Wii to be considered a success or even better 7,9 mil on DS, because their userbases are many times bigger. Amazing logic. Lancestern has left his stigma in these threads.
3. Direct comparison of third party sales between different systems.
How can we compare third party sales between Wii and PS3 and come to conclusions for each platforms health only from the total software sold, is beyond my understatement. Where comes the quantity, quality and the budget in the equation? Wii had its first big title in Japan almost 2,5 years after its launch when there have been numerous for PS3. 1 mil sales of a high-budget game gives bigger profit for the publisher on PS3, Wii or DS?
Of course the myth continues for some, but remains a myth.
Famitsu estimates for September should be renamed to bomb estimates.
First of all where did I say I give credit to the Wii third party sales? I posted a more detailed comparison between Wii and PS3 to show that the statement PS3>>Wii is wrong, since the previous posted numbers were lacking and misleading.
Now about the big lies of this generation:
1. Nintendo is very strong at their systems, so every other publisher must turn their sources to other consoles.
Ive said it many times but it seems some people just dont want to understand it. Everyone competes with everyone and each generations leader always has the lions share of software sales. The previous two generations Nintendo wasnt the major player of the market. N64, GC and GBA sold well but definitely had a big drop in sales comparing to NES, SNES and GB. Third parties could turn to the market leaders (PS1 and PS2) and wouldnt have to compete directly with Nintendo, since the huge userbase these systems had was enough to equal the lack of Japans first publisher from them.
This generation things have changed. Nintendo has the clear winner (DS) and a follower-up (Wii), which certainly isnt as distant as N64 or GC but more close to GBA. Nintendo has the lion share of software sales. The idea that the games for PS3, 360 or even PSP stay out of the competition with Nintendo simply doesnt exist. If you want to ignore 1st party sales when referring to DS or Wii do it, but Japanese consumers definitely dont.
2. The attach ratio of Wii for third parties comparing to PS3.
Who cares? Definitely not the publishers. Thats one of the stupidest things Ive heard. With this logic if 1 mil sales for FF XIII is as success for PS3, the same game would have to sell 2,4 mil on Wii to be considered a success or even better 7,9 mil on DS, because their userbases are many times bigger. Amazing logic. Lancestern has left his stigma in these threads.
3. Direct comparison of third party sales between different systems.
How can we compare third party sales between Wii and PS3 and come to conclusions for each platforms health only from the total software sold, is beyond my understatement. Where comes the quantity, quality and the budget in the equation? Wii had its first big title in Japan almost 2,5 years after its launch when there have been numerous for PS3. 1 mil sales of a high-budget game gives bigger profit for the publisher on PS3, Wii or DS?
Of course the myth continues for some, but remains a myth.
Famitsu estimates for September should be renamed to bomb estimates.
Dragona Akehi
Retired
apujanata said:
First day. Depending on Vesperia PS3's second and third weeks I can imagine that eventually Graces would beat Vesperia PS3 LTD.
First week. I think that's reasonablepseudocaesar said:
EDIT: BTW 2 Millions in the first week would mean a 50%+ attach rate for FFXIII. Is that realistically possible?
I know it's maybe difficult to know, but which ones are the games with the higher attach rate in the first week? (Obviously excluding the first weeks in the life of a console, when attachment rate for games is a lot higher when they gets released)
test_account
XP-39C²
I think that 1million - 1.5 million are Famitsu's LTD predictions for FFXIII. Their first shipment (first week?) predictions are 800K-960K.Grampasso said:
A 50%+ attach rate for FFXIII (or any game for that matter) sounds pretty high indeed, i agree. But to take one example regarding the main Metal Gear Solid games. Here are how much they sold in the first week and how big the console install base was at the time when the games got released (FW = first week software sales) :Grampasso said:
- Metal Gear Solid 2: 456,747 FW / 5,588,723 PS2 Installbase
- Metal Gear Solid 3: 487,156 FW / 15,678,355 PS2 Installbase
- Metal Gear Solid 4: 476,334 FW / 2,177,825 PS3 Installbase
EDIT: These numbers are Famitsu numbers taken from garaph.info, thanks to garaph.info!
The first week software sales are pretty similar eventhough that the MGS2 and MGS3 had a much bigger installbase. MGS2 and MGS3 has a bigger LTD compared to MGS4 though, but the first week sales are rather similar at least. Unfortunately i dont know where to find numbers for MGS1 and how big the Playstation 1 userbase was when MGS1 was released.
There was not a 50%+ attach rate senario with MGS4 and with the PS3 though, so it might be a quite different senario when we talk about a 50%+ attach rate senario, but i just wanted to mention that the installbase might not always matter that much in some cases, at least in my opinion. So who knows how much FFXIII will end up selling even if the PS3 installbase isnt exactly that high, i think it shall be interesting to see how much FFXIII sells at least
test_account said:I think that 1million - 1.5 million are Famitsu's LTD predictions for FFXIII. Their first shipment (first week?) predictions are 800K-960K.
A 50%+ attach rate for FFXIII (or any game for that matter) sounds pretty high indeed, i agree. But to take one example regarding the main Metal Gear Solid games. Here are how much they sold in the first week and how big the console install base was at the time when the games got released (FW = first week software sales) :
- Metal Gear Solid 2: 456,747 FW / 5,588,723 PS2 Installbase
- Metal Gear Solid 3: 487,156 FW / 15,678,355 PS2 Installbase
- Metal Gear Solid 4: 476,334 FW / 2,177,825 PS3 Installbase
The first week software sales are pretty similar eventhough that the MGS2 and MGS3 had a much bigger installbase. MGS2 and MGS3 has a bigger LTD compared to MGS4 though, but the first week sales are rather similar at least. Unfortunately i dont know where to find numbers for MGS1 and how big the Playstation 1 userbase was when MGS1 was released.
There was not a 50%+ attach rate senario with MGS4 and with the PS3 though, so it might be a quite different senario when we talk about a 50%+ attach rate senario, but i just wanted to mention that the installbase might not always matter that much in some cases, at least in my opinion. So who knows how much FFXIII will end up selling even if the PS3 installbase isnt exactly that high, i think it shall be interesting to see how much FFXIII sells at least
I expect about 1.5M within the span of 3 months. LTD probably won't be much different.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
These are simple results from the Garaph game search, so things like BEST versions aren't added in, butfreddy said:
PS3 Top 20
Wii Top 20
Not first day sales, but for comparison here are the early sales of the PS2 Tales games:Dragona Akehi said:
It was definitely around well before this gen. The genesis of my "average ownership time" thing came while arguing about how GCN's attach rate lowered after it had massive hardware sales November 2003.onipex said:
No, and it does. In a combined Wii/PS3 Japanese software list, the top PS3 game comes in at #11. But start categorizing things and it's not going to win every subset.DR2K said:
test_account
XP-39C²
1.5M in 3 months for FFXIII would be quite a drop from FFX and FFXII though, something around 700k-800k in difference. I would be surprised if that many people have lost their interest in a main Final Fantasy game in a ca. 3.5 year time period (it is ca. 3.5 years since Final Fantasy XII was released), but who knowsshinshero said:
manueldelalas
Time Traveler
Yes, and PS3 in it's first year cost twice as much as the Wii, wo the real install base of the PS3 is 7 million; with the double attach rate of third parties; o yeah, we add all that and PS3 sell like 8 times as much software as the Wii (going by your logic).shinshero said:
Thx for the clarification and for the example brought.test_account said:I think that 1million - 1.5 million are Famitsu's LTD predictions for FFXIII. Their first shipment (first week?) predictions are 800K-960K.
A 50%+ attach rate for FFXIII (or any game for that matter) sounds pretty high indeed, i agree. But to take one example regarding the main Metal Gear Solid games. Here are how much they sold in the first week and how big the console install base was at the time when the games got released (FW = first week software sales) :
- Metal Gear Solid 2: 456,747 FW / 5,588,723 PS2 Installbase
- Metal Gear Solid 3: 487,156 FW / 15,678,355 PS2 Installbase
- Metal Gear Solid 4: 476,334 FW / 2,177,825 PS3 Installbase
The first week software sales are pretty similar eventhough that the MGS2 and MGS3 had a much bigger installbase. MGS2 and MGS3 has a bigger LTD compared to MGS4 though, but the first week sales are rather similar at least. Unfortunately i dont know where to find numbers for MGS1 and how big the Playstation 1 userbase was when MGS1 was released.
There was not a 50%+ attach rate senario with MGS4 and with the PS3 though, so it might be a quite different senario when we talk about a 50%+ attach rate senario, but i just wanted to mention that the installbase might not always matter that much in some cases, at least in my opinion. So who knows how much FFXIII will end up selling even if the PS3 installbase isnt exactly that high, i think it shall be interesting to see how much FFXIII sells at least
Indeed it will be interesting seeing how FFXIII will behave, though I think it can be a bit different when we're talking about multi million selling franchises (like FF) compared to a less popular (although healthy and solid) franchise like MGS.
We also know that there are some games that no matter the platform will sell at least a minimum because the fanbase is so attached to the franchise that they'd sell their mothers to play the next sequel. One of these franchises is DQ, and I bet whatever I have DQIX will end up being the best selling DQ (at least until the next one), also because the DS installed base in Japan is so huge.
So in the end, IF DQIX benefits from DS installed base, shouldn't (or "couldn't" may be more appropriate) PS3 low installed base hurt FFXIII sales? I'm saying that because I think multimillion franchises may suffer a lot more from a low installed fanbase compared to a franchise like MGS.
EDIT:
Ehi, don't steal my pointsshinshero said:
test_account said:1.5M in 3 months for FFXIII would be quite a drop from FFX and FFXII though, something around 700k-800k in difference. I would be surprised if that many people have lost their interest in a main Final Fantasy game in a ca. 3.5 year time period (it is ca. 3.5 years since Final Fantasy XII was released), but who knows
Thats true, but any higher would require close to 50%+ attach ratio. I guess when its all said and done 1.8M (Without re-release) is realistic LTD for FF XIII.
We have to remember, there is a recession going on. Are people willing to plonk down 29000 yen in addition to game price for ONE game?
pseudocaesar
Member
shinshero said:
You know the answer to that question is yes, as we have seen thousands of people buying it at higher prices for less popular titles.
Grampasso said:
I completely didn't understand that they were talking about First week sales only, for some reason I thought they were talking about LTD.
Grampasso said:
During GC era, SSBM first week sales is 357,101 (Famitsu, taken from JapanGameChart). BEFORE release of the game (21/11/2001), GC H/W is only 299,411 (Famitsu, taken from Yousouoh). During SSBM (which are called SSB DX in Japan), GC H/W increase from 19,019 to 129,377, and drop again to 44,482 the week AFTER SSBM release.
If you calculate 357,101 vs 428,788 (299,141 BEFORE SSBM + 129,377 in the week of SSBM), it gives you 83% tie ratio. It means 8 out of 10 GC gamer have that game, in the launch week.
I believe it is safe to assume that NO other S/W will ever reach SSBM's tie ratio. Whether FF13 will reach 50% or not, the possibilities is 55% (no) : 45% (yes), IMO.
FFX Tie Ratio :
First week # : 1.749.737
PS2 H/W BEFORE release (19/07/2001) : 5,257,480 (estimated, since there was no data between July 19 and Oct 21, 2001).
Tie Ratio : 33% (remember, this is estimated #, not actual # like SSBM's)
Time and again people have pointed out FFX as evidence for why FFXIII can do 2 million despite PS3 total hardware.
44% of the PS3 user base, assuming it is 4 million by FFXIII's 5th week, would be around 1.76 million. However, if one can pull an attach rate of 44%, the other can easily pull 50% or a little more.
PS3 will "only" hinder FFXIII's ability to outperform the previous two games (X and XII).
Code:
Week FFX PS2 AR
1 1750 4575 38,25%
2 1983 4678 42,40%
3 2069 4753 43,53%
4 2116 4822 43,88%
5 2154 4891 [b]44,03%[/b]
6 2179 4951 44,00%
7 2195 5003 43,89%
8 2206 5048 43,71%44% of the PS3 user base, assuming it is 4 million by FFXIII's 5th week, would be around 1.76 million. However, if one can pull an attach rate of 44%, the other can easily pull 50% or a little more.
PS3 will "only" hinder FFXIII's ability to outperform the previous two games (X and XII).
test_account
XP-39C²
No problemGrampasso said:
Ye, that is true, it might be a quite different senario between a franchice like FF and MGS, because FF is more popular franchice compared to MGS as you. It is not sure that the Metal Gear Solid example that i mention earlier would be something similar when it comes to Final Fantasy. But we will know for sure when FFXIII gets released this DecemberGrampasso said:
Ye, i also think that since the DS installbase is so big, this might result in more sold copies of DQIX indeed as you say, i agree. I mean, DQXI would most likely had sold great anyway indeed as you say, but having the game for a big installbase like the DS has is probably not something that exactly will hurt the salesGrampasso said:
Sure, there is definitly possible that the PS3 installbase might affect the sale of FFXIII, so that less copies of FFXIII are sold compared to if the PS3 installbase was bigger. But exactly how much the low PS3 installbase will affect the FFXIII sales might be hard to know. Could it be like 100k-200k or more like 500k-700k or something? Luckily we only have to wait a few months more (and luckily not a few years) before we know how much FFXIII will sell when the game gets released =)Grampasso said:
Ye, a 50%+ attach ratio sounds almost too high indeed, i agree, but i dont know if the drop will be as much as like 700k-800k comparing the LTD of FFXII and FFXIII. It could happend though, but then i will be a bit surprised at leastshinshero said:
A 1.8M LTD for FFXIII sounds pretty realistic i think.I think so, but i have no idea how many that are willing to do it though. I guess that they can always sell the console and the game after they get tired of it. And maybe FFXIII is the the game that makes several of people to buy a PS3, and then they keep the console for a long time and contunie to buy games for it, so it is not sure that all buys the consoles just to play FFXIII only, if you know what i mean?shinshero said:
I also think that it should be interesting to know how many excisting PS3 owners that plans on bying FFXIII.
test_account
XP-39C²
I think that the 1.00M-1.50M actually was for the LTD. At least that is the Total Forcast number that Famitsu mentioned. I assume that Total Forcast is how much the game will sell in total when it is all said and done at least (or in other words, how big the game's LTD will be)? Famitsu wrote 800K-960K for the First Shipment, which i assume is basicly the same as the first week sales (unless there is a 2nd shipment that comes within the first week of sales)? But please correct me if i am wrongpseudocaesar said:
This is what Famitsu wrote at least:bttb said:
Road said:
Where did you get your data from ?
My own data (taken from japan game charts and yousouoh) indicate only 33% tie ratio, not 44% tie ratio :
The big difference is on PS2 H/W LTD at FFX launch. Yours is 4.891 Million, while mine is 5.25 Million. Do you have weekly breakdown of PS2 H/W # for 2001, Famitsu ? I would love to add my Famitsu H/W database, which lack complete 2001 data.
pseudocaesar
Member
test_account said:I think that the 1.00M-1.50M actually was for the LTD. At least that is the Total Forcast number that Famitsu mentioned. I assume that Total Forcast is how much the game will sell in total when it is all said and done at least (or in other words, how big the game's LTD will be)? Famitsu wrote 800K-960K for the First Shipment, which i assume is basicly the same as the first week sales (unless there is a 2nd shipment that comes within the first week of sales)? But please correct me if i am wrong
Yeh see thats how I read it too, I guess they actually are talking LTD. They arent realllly expecting it to sell that low LTD are they?
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Those are the correct Famitsu totals from their weekly values, but I'm pretty sure they lowballed PS2 early on. I don't remember if I saw any real evidence for it beyond the early shipment data being so much higher and that PS2s were in short supply that first year so they shouldn't have been very overshipped.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ye, i understood Total Forcast to be the same as LTD at least. I agree that their predictions for FFXIII's seems quite low indeed. But they have a rather wide range though, from 1 million to 1.5 million, but even this seems a bit low to me, especially the 1 million. 1.5 million is a bit more realistic though i think.pseudocaesar said:
But i think that Road made a good point earlier in this thread. He said:
So maybe Famitsu will change their FFXIII predictions some time before FFXIII gets released, who knowsRoad said:
Speaking about Famitsu changing their predictions, did they recently change their Wii Fit Plus prediction by the way? I see that they now have it at 1.8M+, didnt they have it at 1.5M or something earlier? Or maybe i am mixing their predictions up with another game than Wii Fit Plus?
Mr.NiceGuy
Member
Question, was there a PS2 sales bump when FFX was released ?
test_account
XP-39C²
Yep, at least when it comes to the PS2 hardware. I dont know how the PS2 software software in general were affected when FFX was released, does anyone knows? But the PS2 sold 156,471 consoles when FFX was released at least. The week before FFX was released the PS2 sold 88,286 consoles. That is a hardware sales bump on 68,185 consolesMr.NiceGuy said:
These numbers are based on Famitsu numbers.EDIT: I added some text.
pseudocaesar said:
Yeah. But how many? 100K maybe, 200, maybe even 300K unlikely but possible but 500K + is highly unlikely. They might want it, but one title cannot warrant a purchase of entire game system. If the PS3 had a plethora of JRPG's, then I would say it is possible. But unfortunately it doesn't.
Then again, GT5 is rumoured to be hitting this year.
Blackbird|
Banned
Shiggy said:
And the n-space project
tehbear said:It's a win win situation, if you are right u get a tag, if you are wrong nothing happens. Why don't we ALL participate in this bet
The more the merrier.
I am putting my money on botticus. Sure win betshinshero said:
Road
Junior Member
Why are Road still Junior Member ? He have 200+ posts, and registered more than 1.5 years ago.
tehbear said:It's a win win situation, if you are right u get a tag, if you are wrong nothing happens. Why don't we ALL participate in this bet
Can Sales-age oppose, deadliest of foes?
Dragona
DRAGONA
Dragona
DRAGONA
GAF will risk it all, to end the evil call of Dragona!
DRAGONA
Dragona
DRAGONA
They never give up. They never say die. Walking tall with tag-bets high... they sound the battle cry! GO GRACES!
It seems one sided. Unless Dragona is just that confident.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
shinshero said:
Something something you can't drink if there's no water something.