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[Nekki]

I think, given certain circumstances, it's a bit unfair to compare a system to a previous one (or even comparing with more than one gen prior).

It can be done on a"case-by-case" analysis, depending on certain factors (as an example, think if Wii would've sold on par, or even 40% better than GC). What i'm trying to say, is that it is kind of unfair to compare PS3 (even worldwide) to PS2 total numbers. Relative numbers like X consoles sold can be a bit misleading, since all that the manufacturer wants to do is make a profit.

While PS3 is indeed less than half the numbers sold than PS2, we should look at it purely from a profit-based perspective. Alas, we all know this is even more grim an outcome than just looking at shipped consoles.

While not unrealistic, it is silly to expect, or even demand (i've seen this happen) that a follow-up sell better than previous iterations, when they were insanely popular. Talking about 3DS, WiiU, and well PS3 to an extent.

How good or bad a platform is doing can easily be pointed out without even looking in the past

I hope i made some sense.

 

[Clear]

Kid Icarus...a well-received BIG franchise?

...In what kind of alternative dimension?!?

It was well-received critically and given it was promoted heavily as any of Nintendo's first-party software when 3DS was announced its certainly not a small title for them.

It's revisionist history to paint the PS3 as anything but a monumental business failure.

No its a case of getting past ancient history and sunk costs to evaluate the product as an ongoing business venture. PS3 has under-performed no doubt but to call the platform itself a flop is idiotic because in terms of software/hardware units shifted its ongoing sales are not trivial.

Its like harping on about RROD when talking about 360's performance in 2012, pointless and divisive.

 

[KillerMan91]

Any time you can blow 5 billion dollars for the chance to tread water you gotta go for it!

It's revisionist history to paint the PS3 as anything but a monumental business failure.

I don't think anyone has said that PS3 was succes business wise but to say that Sony should leave gaming industry because of those losses is hyperbole at its best (refering to frankie_baby's comments). PS3 is currently making money and in its way to sell over 80 million consoles. Launch PS4 with competitive price tag without selling it at big loss(like Vita) and they will make money from the start.

 

[frankie_baby]

Because, ideally, Sony would have some value. It's been squandered, but they do have assets and value. I'm not sure, with the way Nintendo has marketed themselves, that they'd ever be taken seriously in the west as a viable iOS competitor. Too much baggage to the name.

Which is not to say Nintendo IPs aren't the most valuable gaming IPs in the world. They are. But I think Sony branded hardware exclusively selling Nintendo software would be a lot more palatable to certain demographics (which happens to be the demographics who buy smart phones).

I suppose Nintendo could do it themselves. But that would require a radical new approach. And I don't think they possess the resources for it. They're too ingrained with certain philosophies. The ideal, and maybe it's a fallacy to believe, but the ideal is that if you merged them, they could merge the things they both did well and rid themselves of their huge collective weak-spots.

The alternative, of course, is they could merge both companies and prioritize all the wrong things. Accenting each others' weaknesses and destroying what was previously a strength of each company.

Over the last decade sony i believe has lost 90% of their market value and still seems to be dropping, the only bits of the company that do seem to have any real success and value is the professional imaging stuff and life insurance but doubt that'd be a good fit with nintendo

 

[test_account]

Oooh sneaky

When i first clicked on it it said "MH4"

Really? I cant remember that, i'm pretty sure i wrote Portable. I wrote Monster Hunter 4 Portable, but maybe the more correct spelling is Monster Hunter Portable 4. Oh well, but i ment Portable regardless

Makes more sense than a port, but still seems more like Sony fan wishful thinking than something that really makes business sense for Capcom.

In business, taking risks is often done. But yeah, i dont really have much to say about this prediction since it is pretty much a wild guess from me.

EDIT: I fixed a typo.

 

[bigtroyjon]

No its a case of getting past ancient history and sunk costs to evaluate the product as an ongoing business venture. PS3 has under-performed no doubt but to call the platform itself a flop is idiotic because in terms of software/hardware units shifted its ongoing sales are not trivial.

Its like harping on about RROD when talking about 360's performance in 2012, pointless and divisive.

Ongoing sales only exist because of all the money they lost up front to get the product going, you can't just discount those losses as if they don't exist when talking about the business failures of the PS3 as a whole

 

[Diablos54]

No its a case of getting past ancient history and sunk costs to evaluate the product as an ongoing business venture. PS3 has under-performed no doubt but to call the platform itself a flop is idiotic because in terms of software/hardware units shifted its ongoing sales are not trivial

It's ongoing sales aren't trivial since it's still selling. But to say it's not been a flop for Sony given the amount of money it's lost is a bit silly IMO.

 

[Dalthien]

Similar things were said about PS3 and PSP as well early on, so i see no reason to rule out the Vita for a 5 year period at this point.

Maybe I missed where it happened, but I've been on these boards since before the PSP launch, and I honestly can't remember a single person ever saying that the PSP wouldn't last 5 years. The PSP was the anointed one coming off the PS2. It was Sony's glorious march to replicating their home console dominance in the handheld sector. In fact, the DS was the system with a number of people suggesting it was only a stopgap solution meant to last a couple years until the GBANext was released.

I'd be interested in how long people think it'll last. 1 year? 2 years?

That's all up to Sony. If we assume sales continue in this bleak netherworld indefinitely, then it just depends how long they want to ride it out. They could keep it going for a good several years (a la Gamecube) if they were too stubborn to admit defeat (Of course, without the 1st-party software sales that Nintendo was at least able to get with the Cube). Or if things keep in the shitter for Sony as a whole, then they could pull the plug at an earlier date and refocus all of their Vita efforts into making sure that they give the PS4 every possible chance to be a massive success. At this point, it's hard to predict what they would do. (And this is all assuming that things don't improve during this next year on the market - if things do turn around, then it's obviously a moot question).

I don't really see how either succeeds long term without the other. And I don't really think either has the luxury of waiting another decade with status quo as the market radically changes. Mario/Mario Kart/Smash Bros may be lucrative, but that dedicated market isn't guaranteed forever.

No, nothing is guaranteed forever. But Nintendo survived the great videogame crash of the 80s, they survived the Virtual Boy, they survived the Gamecube, and even through all of that they are a far stronger company, and in a much, much better position financially, than they ever were during those missteps.

Nintendo is an odd beast. They always operate with one eye very firmly focused on survival - which is rather uncommon in business today.

By the way, I think 3DS/Vita are approaching the numbers in that "Grand Canyon" PS2 slide. Will be interesting to see where they stand when FY results are shown.

Ha ha, well isn't that karma for you.

I think a bigger issue for Vita in the short-term is the manufacturing. With sales being awfully weak around the world, I have to imagine that Sony is starting to build up a hefty surplus of supply, and will have to seriously start ramping down or even temporarily closing Vita plants unless sales start to spike very soon. So they will either take a financial hit by dropping the price to spur demand, or they will take a hit by slowing down production, which will increase costs on each unit.

Not a position they expected to be in so soon after launch.

 

[Culex]

Updating my chart. If Vita follows the exact same path as the 3DS in announcing a price cut, it'll see it in 7 more weeks.

 

[sphinx]

Sony has lost ~5 billion dollars on the PS3. It is the worst financial disaster in gaming history, losing more money for its parent company than either the Dreamcast or original Xbox.

Reading this sentence is actually scary, more so because it's a cold, hard fact and not some random speculation. Math can be cruel sometimes, I guess.

 

[Mpl90]

It was well-received critically and given it was promoted heavily as any of Nintendo's first-party software when 3DS was announced its certainly not a small title for them.

Mmmh, I thought with "well-received BIG franchise", you were talking like if it were an established big brand XD However, it's still a brand new IP for many things, and it's also atypical ( on-rail shooter / action-shooter ). New IPs can also build their name with time, and seeing this and last week drops it seems Uprising is not losing too much momentum after the launch.

 

[frankie_baby]

I don't think anyone has said that PS3 was succes business wise but to say that Sony should leave gaming industry because of those losses is hyperbole at its best (refering to frankie_baby's comments). PS3 is currently making money and in its way to sell over 80 million consoles. Launch PS4 with competitive price tag without selling it at big loss(like Vita) and they will make money from the start.

I'm not saying the ps3 losses alone will see them exiting the market, simply that another failure with the ps4 will mean they have to

Oh and to say the ps3 is currently making money is a bit of a stretch, its simply paying back a fraction of what it ran up to start with

 

[ShironRedshift]

Updating my chart. If Vita follows the exact same path as the 3DS in announcing a price cut, it'll see it in 7 more weeks.

7 weeks... that would almost line up perfectly with E3. Purely coincidental, but still very interesting...

 

[iidesuyo]

Ouch, ouch, ouch. I don't think Vita will recover, it's the wrong system at the wrong time, maybe a huge price cut could do wonders...

 

[frankie_baby]

7 weeks... that would almost line up perfectly with E3. Purely coincidental, but still very interesting...

By which time it would've been on the market for less than 4 months in the west, has any system ever had a price cut so soon?

 

[frankie_baby]

Ouch, ouch, ouch. I don't think Vita will recover, it's the wrong system at the wrong time, maybe a huge price cut could do wonders...

How about a free vita with every 3ds purchace

 

[Clear]

It's ongoing sales aren't trivial since it's still selling. But to say it's not been a flop for Sony given the amount of money it's lost is a bit silly IMO.

"Monumental failure" connotes to me, an outcome that couldn't be worse. All I'm trying to say is that all things considered the sales of PS3 could've been A LOT worse than they are.

Particularly had MS not screwed themselves over with the 360's reliability issues in its early years.

I'm italicizing that because, although its true, its a cheap-shot which doesn't progress the debate.

Anyone who knows anything about business knows that turnover is the all important thing in terms of a company's overall health and standing in the market. Sunk costs can be amortized long-term by ongoing income, and if you've got income its easier to attract further investment with which to improve your profitability than if you simply have a stockpile of under-utilized assets.

 

[frankie_baby]

"Monumental failure" connotes to me, an outcome that couldn't be worse. All I'm trying to say is that all things considered the sales of PS3 could've been A LOT worse than they are.

Particularly had MS not screwed themselves over with the 360's reliability issues in its early years.

I'm italicizing that because, although its true, its a cheap-shot which doesn't progress the debate.

Anyone who knows anything about business knows that turnover is the all important thing in terms of a company's overall health and standing in the market. Sunk costs can be amortized long-term by ongoing income, and if you've got income its easier to attract further investment with which to improve your profitability than if you simply have a stockpile of under-utilized assets.

Sunk costs however should at least be covered by long term profits, that'll never happen though

 

[OldJadedGamer]

It's ongoing sales aren't trivial since it's still selling. But to say it's not been a flop for Sony given the amount of money it's lost is a bit silly IMO.

Not just money... but market share.

PS3 is doing good world wide though?

PS3 was outsold by the 360 worldwide last year even though the 360 is completely dead in Japan.

 

[test_account]

Maybe I missed where it happened, but I've been on these boards since before the PSP launch, and I honestly can't remember a single person ever saying that the PSP wouldn't last 5 years. The PSP was the anointed one coming off the PS2. It was Sony's glorious march to replicating their home console dominance in the handheld sector. In fact, the DS was the system with a number of people suggesting it was only a stopgap solution meant to last a couple years until the GBANext was released.

Yeah, i dont think i saw anyone who said that the PSP wouldnt last 5 years, and i cant recall anyone saying that about the PS3 either. But with "similar things", i ment predictions about how a system would preform I remember predictions about that the PS3 would end up around what the Gamecube sold. And with PSP, i'm fairly sure that i saw some predictions about a LTD of around 7-8 million units (this was made before Moster Hunter become so popular).

But things can go both ways of course. I dont know if there was much sales age back in the Gamecube days, but if we had the same numbers then as we do now, then we would probably see low predictions for the Gamecube, and that turned out to be true. Same with Xbox 360. So only time will tell with the Vita, who knows.

 

[KillerMan91]

I'm not saying the ps3 losses alone will see them exiting the market, simply that another failure with the ps4 will mean they have to

Oh and to say the ps3 is currently making money is a bit of a stretch, its simply paying back a fraction of what it ran up to start with

Well looking how they designed Vita it's pretty safe to say that PS4 will not be same kind of failure as PS3 money wise at least. It's pretty easy to avoid of selling console with 300 dollar loss per unit ....

 

[Terrell]

Well, so much for that strategy of making something with standard components to recoup losses made on PSP and PS3. ANY hardware losses seem like too big of a gamble now, if the Vita is anything to go by.

Anyone who still thinks Sony will unleash a standardiszed-components loss-leader power behemoth for PS4 around? Cuz if you are, I'd advise against it.

 

[Culex]

7 weeks... that would almost line up perfectly with E3. Purely coincidental, but still very interesting...

I'm betting we'll see an announcement for a price cut in the next 30 days.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Yeah, i dont think i saw anyone who said that the PSP wouldnt last 5 years, and i cant recall anyone saying that about the PS3 either. But with "similar things", i ment predictions about how a system would preform I remember predictions about that the PS3 would end up around what the Gamecube sold.

I'm pretty sure these things were said when the price was high but then Sony started dropping the price. The first PS3 price drop was just 8 months after the system was released.

 

[frankie_baby]

Well looking how they designed Vita it's pretty safe to say that PS4 will not be same kind of failure as PS3 money wise at least. It's pretty easy to avoid of selling console with 300 dollar loss per unit ....

I dont think it'll be a ps3 level failure (in terms of money) sony just doesnt have that.much money to make a system so expensive, but any amount of loss leading on the hardware coupled with anemic sales could easily push them over the edge

 

[Mr Swine]

Sony should have released a handheld that is more powerful than the 3DS, not a generation leap like the Vita. I guess they could have gotten it out before the 3DS and gotten some ports rather what it is now for Vita.

 

[Clear]

Sunk costs however should at least be covered by long term profits, that'll never happen though

True, but where's the real profit centre in this market? Its in software sales, not hardware. And objectively PS3's 60million plus install base should be more than enough to support several high-earning franchises.

Thing is though: Noone seems to have a fucking clue how to realize that potential! The way I see it, that's symptomatic of the single biggest underlying problem with the games market as a whole right now - noone knows how to reinvogorate the core-gamer scene and instead are slavishly chasing the last breakout hit.

 

[Father_Brain]

I'm betting we'll see an announcement for a price cut in the next 30 days.

I bet we won't.

 

[test_account]

I'm pretty sure these things were said when the price was high but then Sony started dropping the price. The first PS3 price drop was just 8 months after the system was released.

Yep, they were mostly said early on, when the PS3 first hit ~10k a week.

 

[frankie_baby]

True, but where's the real profit centre in this market? Its in software sales, not hardware. And objectively PS3's 60million plus install base should be more than enough to support several high-earning franchises.

Thing is though: Noone seems to have a fucking clue how to realize that potential! The way I see it, that's symptomatic of the single biggest underlying problem with the games market as a whole right now - noone knows how to reinvogorate the core-gamer scene and instead are slavishly chasing the last breakout hit.

Successful hits for 3rd parties though arent what sony needs for its bottom line though, sure they'll make 5 bucks or so per copy on royalties but no they need big selling first party titles where they can make 10 times that, but their first party stuff just aint selling like it used to

 

[Dalthien]

Sony should have released a handheld that is more powerful than the 3DS, not a generation leap like the Vita. I guess they could have gotten it out before the 3DS and gotten some ports rather what it is now for Vita.

I called it a good 6-12 months before the 3DS came out. If Vita had any chance at all vs. the 3DS, it had to release alongside the 3DS. Giving the 3DS a year head-start was platform suicide, similar to MS and Nintendo giving the PS2 a head-start. If their plan was to launch late, then I felt that they just shouldn't even bother launching at all.

 

[jman2050]

Successful hits for 3rd parties though arent what sony needs for its bottom line though, sure they'll make 5 bucks or so per copy on royalties but no they need big selling first party titles where they can make 10 times that, but their first party stuff just aint selling like it used to

If we're talking about Japan, then their first party stuff isn't selling at all.

They're subsisting on hardware margins and third-party royalties. That is not a working business model for this industry.

 

[frankie_baby]

Sony should have released a handheld that is more powerful than the 3DS, not a generation leap like the Vita. I guess they could have gotten it out before the 3DS and gotten some ports rather what it is now for Vita.

They should if they'd had any sense have beaten the 3ds to market, the psp was dead in most of the world butb stupidly they thought they could ride the japanese psp gravy train as long as they could and its left them where they are now

 

[frankie_baby]

If we're talking about Japan, then their first party stuff isn't selling at all.

They're subsisting on hardware margins and third-party royalties. That is not a working business model for this industry.

True

 

[jman2050]

They should if they'd had any sense have beaten the 3ds to market, the psp was dead in most of the world butb stupidly they thought they could ride the japanese psp gravy train as long as they could and its left them where they are now

Honestly, merely retaining Monster Hunter might have changed everything. That more than any other factor was the killing blow. Just imagine those 1.4 million copies selling Vitas instead of 3DSes.

 

[timetokill]

Shame to see KH3D doing so poorly. I wonder how many people are simply burned out on so many KH spinoffs on so many different platforms. How much would the game have sold if it was simply called "Kingdom Hearts 3"?


Vita finally breaks the barrier. I've said it before and I'll say it again: I see little reason for Sony to stay in the handheld market, and Vita is doing nothing to convince me otherwise.

 

[KillerMan91]

I dont think it'll be a ps3 level failure (in terms of money) sony just doesnt have that.much money to make a system so expensive, but any amount of loss leading on the hardware coupled with anemic sales could easily push them over the edge

Well of course anything could happen but if they launch resonably priced console I just don't see PS4 having anemic sales. At least not to the degree that would force them to leave industry. PS3 has had strong third party support and don't see why that would change and even though people like to downplay sales of their first party titles they still have strong selling ip's (God of War, Uncharted, Gran Turismo etc) and a lot of talent.

 

[frankie_baby]

Honestly, merely retaining Monster Hunter might have changed everything. That more than any other factor was the killing blow. Just imagine those 1.4 million copies selling Vitas instead of 3DSes.

Sony must surely have thought it was psp selling monster hunter not monster hunter selling psp

 

[axisofweevils]

Even I can't believe how well the 3DS is doing in Japan.

If you add up this week's sales of all the other consoles...
The 3DS still sold more.

That's amazing.

 

[frankie_baby]

Well of course anything could happen but if they launch resonably priced console I just don't see PS4 having anemic sales. At least not to the degree that would force them to leave industry. PS3 has had strong third party support and don't see why that would change and even though people like to downplay sales of their first party titles they still have strong selling ip's (God of War, Uncharted, Gran Turismo etc) and a lot of talent.

The question will be how close wiiu and ps4 are in power, if they're closr enough that wiiu gets all the big 3rd party games then the late launch could kill sony

 

[muu]

They should if they'd had any sense have beaten the 3ds to market, the psp was dead in most of the world butb stupidly they thought they could ride the japanese psp gravy train as long as they could and its left them where they are now

They would have had a hell of a time differentiating from the PSP though. It's the same issue the 360/PS3 are facing now: their previous leap was so significant that they're struggling to create a system that doesn't lose them much money and still looks _significantly_ better to most people with one look.

 

[test_account]

If we're talking about Japan, then their first party stuff isn't selling at all.

I wouldnt say at all, since there are several of first party games that did respectable numbers. Gran Turismo 5 sold about 600k. Hot Shots Golf 4 is over 400k. White Knight Chronicles 1+2 is close to 600k combined. Uncharted 2+3 is about 260k combined. All thee Patapon games did 100k+ each. Demon's Souls did 160k+.

Some games like GT5 and HSG4 isnt as big as the previous games in the series used to be, but they still sold a good amount of copies.

 

[Dragon]

PS3 was outsold by the 360 worldwide last year even though the 360 is completely dead in Japan.

360 barely sold more than the PS3 worldwide last year even though it destroyed it in the United States; your statement doesn't disprove anything about the statement you quoted.

 

[Cookie18]

Updating my chart. If Vita follows the exact same path as the 3DS in announcing a price cut, it'll see it in 7 more weeks.

I think this is the most logical prediction put forward yet. Sony has to cut the price of the Vita if it is to sell well. I can't see them dropping Vita support for a few years regardless because that would hurt the Playstation brand as a whole. However if they want to see success with the Vita I would hope they cut the price prior to Christmas 2012.

 

[jman2050]

I wouldnt say at all, since there are several of first party games that did respectable numbers. Gran Turismo 5 sold about 600k. Hot Shots Golf 4 is over 400k. White Knight Chronicles 1+2 is close to 600k combined. Uncharted 2+3 is about 260k combined. All thee Patapon games did 100k+ each. Demon's Souls did 160k+.

Some games like GT5 and HSG4 isnt as big as the previous games in the series used to be, but they still sold a good amount of copies.

I'm talking more in recent times.

One of the interesting peculiarities of the past few years in Japan is that the PS3's software environment has improved and yet Sony hasn't reaped the benefits of this improvement at all.

 

[donny2112]

I wouldnt say at all, since there are several of first party games that did respectable numbers. Gran Turismo 5 sold about 600k. Hot Shots Golf 4 is over 400k. White Knight Chronicles 1+2 is close to 600k combined. Uncharted 2+3 is about 260k combined. All thee Patapon games did 100k+ each. Demon's Souls did 160k+.

All of those numbers combined sold less than Wii Party. Wii Party

 

[KillerMan91]

360 barely sold more than the PS3 worldwide last year even though it destroyed it in the United States; your statement doesn't disprove anything about the statement you quoted.

Not to mention that from coming shipment reports we will probably see that MS seriously stuffed the channels during holiday period just to be able to declare that they beat PS3 for the year.

 

[frankie_baby]

Not to mention that from coming shipment reports we will probably see that MS seriously stuffed the channels during holiday period just to be able to declare that they beat PS3 for the year.

Channel stuffing is better than what sony used to declare as "production shipments"

 

[Spiegel]

I'm talking more in recent times.

One of the interesting peculiarities of the past few years in Japan is that the PS3's software environment has improved and yet Sony hasn't reaped the benefits of this improvement at all.

Yep, that's Sony for you.

Publishers of all sizes found success on psp yet Sony couldn't take advantage of the huge userbase or create new IPs

 

[test_account]

I'm talking more in recent times.

One of the interesting peculiarities of the past few years in Japan is that the PS3's software environment has improved and yet Sony hasn't reaped the benefits of this improvement at all.

Well, you do have Uncharted 3 and Uncharted: Golden Abyss as recent ones, those did fairly good. Gravity Daze is at 100k+, which isnt too shabby for a new IP and being on the Vita.

Not that this means too much, but funnily enough the 3 best selling Vita games so far are actually first party games

Yep, there havnt been too much first party stuff for the PS3 coming from Japan, that is true. I'm not sure why Sony doesnt make more effort into this in Japan, or maybe they simply just want to focus the resources more on western developers instead.

All of those numbers combined sold less than Wii Party. Wii Party

But they sold more than Kiki Trick! Seriously though, i think that this speaks more about how succesful Wii Party was rather than the other way around.