Media Create Sales: Week 19, 2017 (May 08 - May 14)

Mory Dunz

Member
Jun 12, 2012
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My arms prediction from early April [revised]

my random numbers would be 300-350k acceptable and 500k+ as really good.
The only metric I see is Nintnedo JPs youtube channel, in which ARMs videos have done decently since reveal.

200k is way too low and a failure for their amount of effort and 1 million is a joke unless something crazy happens.

edit:
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Jul 29, 2010
4,281
95
655
what do you call a long time? Gundam Extreme VS was over 500k and the Full Boost revision around 400k too
Those are fighting games? If we're counting those, the first game released 6 years ago. Full Boost revision released in the beginning of 2014, which is around the range I'm thinking of, but that was on PS3 though...

Anyways, I'm mostly just saying to people to keep their expectations reasonable, but in check.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
sinobi: Switch hard to find since launch, expects the situation to continue and become become worse closer to Splatoon 2 launch.

gamesmaya: Preorders for Splatoon 2 started strong, sees a hidden big game announcement for second half (Splatoon 2 bundle she was expecting happened, maybe sooner than what she thought).
 

Jon Carter

Member
Jul 14, 2015
2,726
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What's up with the bundle actually? The regular models fly off the shelves and people were gonna buy Splatoon 2 with or without a bundle. I don't really see the point of it for Nintendo.
 

Calm Mind

Member
May 16, 2016
4,771
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sinobi: Switch hard to find since launch, expects the situation to continue and become become worse closer to Splatoon 2 launch.

gamesmaya: Preorders for Splatoon 2 started strong, sees a hidden big game announcement for second half (Splatoon 2 bundle she was expecting happened, maybe sooner than what she thought).
I'm expecting the Switch to hover between 30-50k a week until Splatoon 2 and even then I'm not expecting nothing more than 100k at the most for launch week.
 

added_time

Member
May 27, 2010
3,510
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What's up with the bundle actually? The regular models fly off the shelves and people were gonna buy Splatoon 2 with or without a bundle. I don't really see the point of it for Nintendo.
I agree. Makes no sense. I guess they already had it planned for a long time and don't want to back out now. The consoles and game would sell easily without the bundle
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
3,844
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340
Sofia
What's up with the bundle actually? The regular models fly off the shelves and people were gonna buy Splatoon 2 with or without a bundle. I don't really see the point of it for Nintendo.
I mean you barely save anything with the bundle but you get Splatoon colored joycons - it's not like Nintendo is losing anything with bundling it this way. It's just a matter of shipping enough quantities of the Switch for the summer holiday and Splatoon launch.

Splatoon 2 Single Player Trailer:
Nintendo channel - 646K views
Nintendo Japan channel - 620K views

Twintelle has nearly as many views in Japan as the direct... three times as many as Byte and Barq
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
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sinobi: Switch hard to find since launch, expects the situation to continue and become become worse closer to Splatoon 2 launch.

gamesmaya: Preorders for Splatoon 2 started strong, sees a hidden big game announcement for second half (Splatoon 2 bundle she was expecting happened, maybe sooner than what she thought).
Pokemon!
 
Aug 30, 2007
14,209
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My arms prediction from early April [revised]

200k is way too low and a failure for their amount of effort and 1 million is a joke unless something crazy happens.

edit:
What if the game sold like 5 million plus in the west? Whilst I'm sure they would be expecting more than 200K in Japan I think they probably have more expectations WW considering the genre.

What's up with the bundle actually? The regular models fly off the shelves and people were gonna buy Splatoon 2 with or without a bundle. I don't really see the point of it for Nintendo.
They were probably planned a while ago. They aren't losing money on the bundle anyway. Hopefully they have a lot of bundles ready doubt it though.

I'm expecting the Switch to hover between 30-50k a week until Splatoon 2 and even then I'm not expecting nothing more than 100k at the most for launch week.
It's almost impossible to predict without knowing a what's happening with their supply line.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
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Splatoon 2 bundle shows Nintendo is in position to increase supply, not the opposite and either way not many outside Nintendo know production scale 2 months from now.

What looks possible is that Nintendo took some planned shipments from this FY to cover demand for launch month. Same thing happened with Wii U holidays 2015, only back then Nintendo had decided to cease Wii U production and these units were never replenished.
 

Salvadora

Member
Dec 11, 2011
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The limited edition Splatoon 2 bundle with appropriately coloured Joy-Cons builds excitement around the platform even if stock continues to be constrained.

It's momentum building.
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
3,844
1
340
Sofia
Well there was at least an uptick of interest according to Famitsu, last time they did FMW Arms had 148 points.

Famitsu Most Wanted

01. Dragon Quest XI: Sugisarishi Toki o Motomete (3DS) - 1,434
02. Splatoon 2 (Switch) - 774
03. The Alliance Alive (3DS) - 604
04. The Snack World: Trejarers (3DS) - 429
05. Super Mario Odyssey (Switch) - 369
06. ARMS (Switch) - 300
07. Radiant Historia Perfect Chronology (3DS) - 280
08. Hey! Pikmin (3DS) - 277
09. Xenoblade 2 (Switch) - 270
10. Shin Megami Tensei DEEP STRANGE JOURNEY (3DS) - 252
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
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1m for Japan from a new fighting IP would mean a Smash Bros. level entry.

Anything over 500k for Arms should be considered a success for Nintendo.
For me, 500k should be bare minimum. If gundam versus can hit that number, a game with this buge push by Nintendo should also be able to hit that number.
 

Calm Mind

Member
May 16, 2016
4,771
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Well there was at least an uptick of interest according to Famitsu, last time they did FMW Arms had 148 points.

Famitsu Most Wanted

01. Dragon Quest XI: Sugisarishi Toki o Motomete (3DS) - 1,434
02. Splatoon 2 (Switch) - 774
03. The Alliance Alive (3DS) - 604
04. The Snack World: Trejarers (3DS) - 429
05. Super Mario Odyssey (Switch) - 369
06. ARMS (Switch) - 300
07. Radiant Historia Perfect Chronology (3DS) - 280
08. Hey! Pikmin (3DS) - 277
09. Xenoblade 2 (Switch) - 270
10. Shin Megami Tensei DEEP STRANGE JOURNEY (3DS) - 252
This bodes very well for ARMS.
 

Vinnk

Member
Mar 10, 2006
3,203
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Japan
www.famicomdojo.tv
For me, 500k should be bare minimum. If gundam versus can hit that number, a game with this buge push by Nintendo should also be able to hit that number.
I suppose, but Gundam is a massive franchise. Even mediocre Gundam games sell pretty well.

500k is huge for a brand new IP. Very few new IPs can reach it.

That said, I am very bullish on ARMS.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
0
570
For me, 500k should be bare minimum. If gundam versus can hit that number, a game with this buge push by Nintendo should also be able to hit that number.
Big pushes don't guarantee success of that level from new IP's. They have and will continue to be a substantial risks
And I'm sure Nintendo knows this which is why they''ve been reluctant to do it with their core teams or covered those attempts with another popular IP.

If this is the plan going forward I'm sure if Nintendo is reasonable they won't always expect a splatoon or something close enough too but at least something that passes a reasonable threshold. The main advantage of a new up is it's capability of a new ip is to bring in new consumers that may not have otherwise been interested. Especially with MK8D's sales they didn't actually need a MK9 or one anytime soon
 

Vinnk

Member
Mar 10, 2006
3,203
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Japan
www.famicomdojo.tv
Well there was at least an uptick of interest according to Famitsu, last time they did FMW Arms had 148 points.

Famitsu Most Wanted

01. Dragon Quest XI: Sugisarishi Toki o Motomete (3DS) - 1,434
02. Splatoon 2 (Switch) - 774
03. The Alliance Alive (3DS) - 604
04. The Snack World: Trejarers (3DS) - 429
05. Super Mario Odyssey (Switch) - 369
06. ARMS (Switch) - 300
07. Radiant Historia Perfect Chronology (3DS) - 280
08. Hey! Pikmin (3DS) - 277
09. Xenoblade 2 (Switch) - 270
10. Shin Megami Tensei DEEP STRANGE JOURNEY (3DS) - 252
This list is only Nintendo platforms right? The all platform list would look different.
 

tolkir

Member
Jun 25, 2011
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For me, 500k should be bare minimum. If gundam versus can hit that number, a game with this buge push by Nintendo should also be able to hit that number.
Gundam is one of the biggest franchise in Japan. It needs more than marketing to beat Gundam.

In the end, it's going to be about ARMS's legs. If the multiplayer is addictive for kids, challeging for teens/adults and the updates are attractive, that is the biggest push the game can have.
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
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I suppose, but Gundam is a massive franchise. Even mediocre Gundam games sell pretty well.

500k is huge for a brand new IP. Very few new IPs can reach it.

That said, I am very bullish on ARMS.
Ohh. I know for sure gundam versus is a huge Ip with tons of fans. I am just seeing from the other perspective where ARMS is new IP which seems to had some pull on casual market with motion control. It also had that Nintendo brand which always seems to resonate with more mass market consumers. That is the reasom i feel 500k is Nintendo target at least for Japan.

Big pushes don't guarantee success of that level from new IP's. They have and will continue to be a substantial risks
And I'm sure Nintendo knows this which is why they''ve been reluctant to do it with their core teams or covered those attempts with another popular IP.

If this is the plan going forward I'm sure if Nintendo is reasonable they won't always expect a splatoon or something close enough too but at least something that passes a reasonable threshold. The main advantage of a new up is it's capability of a new ip is to bring in new consumers that may not have otherwise been interested. Especially with MK8D's sales they didn't actually need a MK9 or one anytime soon
Like what you said, i am just viewing through opportunity cost view there. Nintendo know these team capabilities. If they found ARMS is just going to do 200k in Japan, i believe they would rather make them do other game or genre which would be able to do bigger number.
 

CANLI

Member
Dec 4, 2006
538
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0
Brussels
I see a 500k to 600k LTD for Arms (only Japan)
LTD of Splatoon 2 will depend at how much the game is good and has improved from the wii U version.

80k sales for Blaster Master is OK for a mediocre game.
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
Jun 25, 2006
7,122
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Gonna say 200k - 300k final LTD for ARMs.

There's little to suggest otherwise.

I'm predicting a high 100k debut and it dropping off of the charts after.

Keep in mind I've only been wrong twice; with the Wii and the Wii U.
 
Aug 30, 2007
14,209
0
0
ARMS certainly has a wide variation of expectations. Anywhere from a w101 level bomb to 1 million+ plus sales, that's a pretty massive range lol.

Also Nirolak whilst it's hard to respond to such a large amount of numbers it's much appreciated. The mobile market is always interesting. The growth in the Chinese market is staggering.
 

casiopao

Member
Jan 27, 2013
7,639
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0
Fire Emblem Heroes is rising in chart huh. Ninty is slowly but surely wanting that mobile pie huh.

Gonna say 200k - 300k final LTD for ARMs.

There's little to suggest otherwise.

I'm predicting a high 100k debut and it dropping off of the charts after.

Keep in mind I've only been wrong twice; with the Wii and the Wii U.
Well, if thats the number i would feel it is extremely disappointing especially if the FW week is only 100k after such huge push.
 

D_prOdigy

Member
Nov 10, 2011
5,482
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0
Of course Nintendo will have high expectations for ARMS. But I just don't see it bucking genre trends in Japan.

I can see about 120k first week tops. Peter out completely by about 300-350k. Would love to be proven wrong
 

sphinx

the piano man
Nov 21, 2006
15,739
0
1,350
Germany
I can see about 120k first week tops. Peter out completely by about 300-350k. Would love to be proven wrong
my veredict would be

(Disclaimer: all LTDS and in the context of a 1st party game by nintendo on a successful console, made by the MK8 team and with substantial marketing push):

0k~300k = Failure

300k~500k = ok, nice try but meh, very lukewarm reception

500k~700k = very good, no way this can be considered a failure, but also not the next big thing/system seller

700k~1 million = Absolutely amazing, nintendo would be wise to prepare a sequel with huge budgets thrown into it.

above 1 million = the next Brain Training - > Monster Hunter, -> Yokai Watch - > Splatoon, Riots in the streets, long lines for the sequel, countrywide tournaments with ridiculous participation rate, attach rate of nearly 1:1 for switch.
 

goldage

Banned
Apr 12, 2017
154
0
0
i dont think applying the fighting genre to arms makes much sense, platformers and racing games dont sell heaps but nintendo ones do, it all depends on whether the game is good or not

considering the lack of nintendo games so far, arms is in a good position to sell well over time since it will get continued updates and interest seems decent

probably 200k fw
 

Alrus

Member
Apr 4, 2010
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Belgium
I think some of you have insane expectations for Arms. It's a new IP, doing 300-500k in Japan would be great. Anything over that would be fantastic.
 

ggx2ac

Member
Apr 5, 2016
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I think some of you have insane expectations for Arms. It's a new IP, doing 300-500k in Japan would be great. Anything over that would be fantastic.
This, it's a new IP launching in June on a system that's only been out for 3 months.

It's more important to see the longevity than to decide it's live or die on its first week.

It's following the same model as Splatoon with free dlc updates rather than paid like Mario Kart 8 so it's expected to have a community to build up just like Splatoon and even have esports events to run even though it won't be at EVO this year.
 

Mr. Pointy

Member
Mar 12, 2006
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ARMS' first week will probably be 100k-ish. If it catches on, it'll chug along at 10-20k a week for the next 12-18 months until it finishes around 700k to 1.2m.

I still think it's got a fairly good chance of hitting the bigger total.
 

ggx2ac

Member
Apr 5, 2016
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ARMS' first week will probably be 100k-ish. If it catches on, it'll chug along at 10-20k a week for the next 12-18 months until it finishes around 700k to 1.2m.
Right now, I'd say 120k. If it has good reception from the testpunch, at least 180k.
 

Mr. Pointy

Member
Mar 12, 2006
12,141
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WIU Splatoon 156.610 1.632.495 Nintendo 5/28/2015

I think the first decent bar for ARMs to clear is Pokken Tournament: WIU Pokken Tournament 72.502 173.494 Pokémon Co. 3/18/2016
ARMS' first week will probably fall in between the two.

Seriously though, if Pokken Tournament Switch is a thing - it could easily sell double the Wii U amount.
 

Zedark

Member
Feb 22, 2016
5,220
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290
Little Mons†er;237475347 said:
What was Splatoons opening?
Code:
01./00. [WIU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.05.28} (¥6.156) - 144.818 / NEW <97,33%> [Units Shipped => 148.791]
 

ggx2ac

Member
Apr 5, 2016
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Keep mind that the Wii u had sold over 2 million during that point in time.
But it was also a console that people didn't really buy games for unless it had the word Mario in it.

I remember how badly Wind Waker, Pikmin 3 and The Wonderful 101 did on first week in Japan.