Media Create Sales: Week 22, 2017 (May 29 - Jun 04)

ggx2ac

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The thing is, both the price cut and the trinity happened in the same quarter. Note that an announcement can already increase sales. There is really no way to tell which was more important, they both happened at the same time.
Let me make this clear to you so you understand.

Here's the graph again:

You know where the peak of sales would be without the 3DS price cut?

FY3/2013, the third bar from the left.

There is no way FY3/2012 would be the peak without a price cut. There is a reason that happened, I even showed you shipment data where they only shipped 700k 3DS units after launch.

If software was the only reason sales increased, then the Wii U wouldn't have been DEAD. It also got the big Nintendo first party titles but that didn't do shit to save it.

For 3DS, the price cut was very significant. Nintendo took the losses because they were trying to save it since it's their more important hardware at making revenue with smaller budget games compared to the Wii U.
 

Chris1964

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This week's thread gives me flashbacks for many important arguments I had last years.
 

L~A

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EBA may have been DS only but Rythm Tengolu had Wii and WiiU versions (and that was a handheld franchise)
Small correction, there never was a Rhythm Tengoku game on Wii U (unless you count the Wii Download version of the Wii game...).

In my country, there were widespread reports just before the 3DS launched that the 3D technology in the system would hurt the eyes of small children. The system NEVER recovered from that.
I hope you're not from the UK, and that you're not referring to that one lone article from the Sun or whatever other garbage trash tabloid, because that was just them tring to stir sh*t up and run on the controversies (which is the only thing they know). That never amounted to anything, at all.

kuroneko0509 said:
Nintendo themselves are somewhat moving away from 3d with its 2ds & also upcoming new 2ds ll. if they still care about 3d, the upcoming model can just be for example ultra 3ds ll instead of new 2ds ll
They're not moving away from anything... well, they are, but the 2DS / New 2DS XL are not proof of that (Switch is).

2DS is a super cheap entry level model for kids... the very users Nintendo advise against using 3D for.
New 2DS XL is, well, the New equivalent of the 2DS, for players who want something that doesn't exist yet: a relatively cheap but powerful 3DS model with big screens. Wouldn't make sense to have an Ultra 3DS now. And adding 3D to the 2DS XL would just make it a New 3DS XL with a fancy design (and 2D screens are much cheaper anyway).

Honestly not sure I understand the whole debate about 3D and 3DS sales. 3D never really had any sort of impact on 3DS sales. Positively or negatively. Vast majority of users were pretty apathetic about it, and very few bought a 3DS just for the 3D or didn't buy it because of the 3D (I guess you could argue some people didn't like the compromises required for 3D, but the thing is, people chose to buy/not buy the 3DS based on the games on offer and/or price). That's why you haven't seen any real outrage or even debate about the lack of 3D with the Switch, even from 3D enthusiasts (like me).

That's pretty much the thing about 3D and the 3DS: originally designed as its major feature, 3D remained nothing but a nice extra/baggage (depending on your point of view).
 

extralite

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You know where the peak of sales would be without the 3DS price cut?

FY3/2013, the third bar from the left.
I was one of the people saying they need to price drop (before it happened). Capcom probably insisted also, fearing MH might tank otherwise.

But would the price cut alone have lifted FY3/2012 above FY3/2013? I mean, they are very close. Even without the price cut, 3DS would have sold much better than before. It did suffice to make it the best quarter but not by much. Some considerable increase should have happened without it, and Nintendo would have made more money from hardware.

But I concede, it did play an important role. It doesn't at all show that stereo 3D was more detrimental than helpful, which was what we originally discussed.

That's pretty much the thing about 3D and the 3DS: originally designed as its major feature, 3D remained nothing but a nice extra/baggage (depending on your point of view).
Fair enough. My point is, Nintendo are stubborn and like to turn things around and make failures into successes. Examples that come to mind are: Virtual Boy -> 3DS, Wii U -> Splatoon/Mario Maker, early 3D Mario sandbox style -> Mario Odyssey.
 

ggx2ac

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I was one of the people saying they need to price drop (before it happened). Capcom probably insisted also, fearing MH might tank otherwise.

But would the price cut alone have lifted FY3/2012 above FY3/2013? I mean, they are very close. Even without the price cut, 3DS would have sold much better than before. It did suffice to make it the best quarter but not by much. Some considerable increase should have happened without it, and Nintendo would have made more money from hardware.

But I concede, it did play an important role. It doesn't at all show that stereo 3D was more detrimental than helpful, which was what we originally discussed.
Holy fuck.

Talk about missing the whole point and trying to get the last laugh.
 

extralite

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Yeah well, the price cut happened before the strongest quarter. Its effect should still be felt in the following and holiday quarters can't be beat. Edit: And the price cut and trinity announcements were in the same quarter, so my post isn't wrong.

Holy fuck.

Talk about missing the whole point and trying to get the last laugh.
Wasn't the whole point that 3D was supposedly bad for the system? That's why you argued the importance of the price cut, didn't you?
 

ggx2ac

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Wasn't the whole point that 3D was supposedly bad for the system? That's why you argued the importance of the price cut, didn't you?
I'm done arguing. You said you conceded, so I'm not going to bother wasting my time any further.
 

extralite

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I'm done arguing. You said you conceded, so I'm not going to bother wasting my time any further.
The thing is, I previously was in favor of the price cut (so it was easy to concede on something I myself would have argued previously). But the performance of the Switch we're seeing now shows that maybe it wasn't necessary.
 

Skittzo0413

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The thing is, I previously was in favor of the price cut (so it was easy to concede on something I myself would have argued previously). But the performance of the Switch we're seeing now shows that maybe it wasn't necessary.
If I remember correctly Nintendo lost a lot of money due to the price cut and Iwata even had to slash his salary in half. That's not the type of thing they would do if they didn't believe it was absolutely necessary.
 

extralite

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If I remember correctly Nintendo lost a lot of money due to the price cut and Iwata even had to slash his salary in half. That's not the type of thing they would do if they didn't believe it was absolutely necessary.
I also believed it was absolutely necessary. Still could have been wrong though.
 
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If by "revive" you mean port the mobile games they're making to the platform, sure.

If by "revive" you mean "roll out a $10-$20+ million budget new Mana title", it sold 30,000 copies, not 300,000 copies.
Game budgets are fascinating to me. Something I have an interest in but have never been able to get a lot of info on is Nintendo's software budgets. Do you know anything about this subject?

If the average Western AAA game costs $40 million and over (not counting marketing) do you think bigger budget Nintendo games like Mario Kart 8 and Splatoon 2 would have budgets closer to $20 million or even less?

I know BotW needed to sell 2 million copies to break even according to Miyamoto but surely that is an anomaly for Nintendo considering it was in full development for over three years.

I personally think that one of the main reasons Nintendo went with a hybrid was so that they could do another modest spec leap because creating a console on par with even Xbox One spec wise would increase their development budgets considerably.
 

BriBri

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www.japanesenintendo.com
Apologies if it's been posted earlier but I'm not prepared to burn my eyes with the words Monster, Hunter and Five again. Anyways, today is the first Thursday Nintendo were unable to provide any Switch consoles on their My Nintendo Store. Not a news story as of yet, as they could be available again tomorrow (it says 'as soon as possible') but worth keeping an eye on.
 
Jun 18, 2015
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Asked this in the other thread but will ask again but what games for Switch this year will hit 100k+ first week?
Pokken?
Mario for sure
Monster Hunter XX
Fire Emblem Warriors?
Xenoblade Chronicles 2?
Skyrim?
 

KillerMan91

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14./20. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2015.12.10} (¥8.400) - 3.187 / 200.144 (+28%)

Game launched with under 30k first week. Great legs for PS title. Still full priced too. Wonder what the final LTD will be and will Ubi launch budget edition in future.
 

hiska-kun

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I'm interested in New 2DS XL sales because I want to see if replaces or not New 3DS XL. If it does, then we can say few people care about 3D. If the N3DS XL keeps being the best selling model, it means people want 3D.
 

random25

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Asked this in the other thread but will ask again but what games for Switch this year will hit 100k+ first week?
Pokken?
Mario for sure
Monster Hunter XX
Fire Emblem Warriors?
Xenoblade Chronicles 2?
Skyrim?
Mario and Monster Hunter for sure. Fire Emblem Warriors I can see it as a very big possibility. Xenoblade 2 can, or could just be very close. Dunno how popular Skyrim is still. Pokken, I kinda doubt it.
 

Alrus

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Asked this in the other thread but will ask again but what games for Switch this year will hit 100k+ first week?
Pokken?
Mario for sure
Monster Hunter XX
Fire Emblem Warriors?
Xenoblade Chronicles 2?
Skyrim?
Pokken will not open with 100k no.
FE Warrior isn't guaranteed because the Musou genre has declined and isn't usually strong on Nintendo systems, but FE is a strong brand so who knows.
Skyrim I don't see it.

Mario and MH are guaranteed, Xenoblade 2 should do it too unless it looks absolutely terrible.
 

extralite

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I'm interested in New 2DS XL sales because I want to see if replaces or not New 3DS XL. If it does, then we can say few people care about 3D. If the N3DS XL keeps being the best selling model, it means people want 3D.
I'd say if the 3DS completely collapses that might mean people don't want stereo 3D. Although the market might just be close to saturation. Even if the New 2DS will outsell it*, if it does keep selling respectably (for this point in its life), we can interpret that as some people willing to play 5000 yen extra for stereo 3D. (*I expect it will, also because it will have some modest new system hype, and is just cheaper.)
 
Game budgets are fascinating to me. Something I have an interest in but have never been able to get a lot of info on is Nintendo's software budgets. Do you know anything about this subject?

If the average Western AAA game costs $40 million and over (not counting marketing) do you think bigger budget Nintendo games like Mario Kart 8 and Splatoon 2 would have budgets closer to $20 million or even less?

I know BotW needed to sell 2 million copies to break even according to Miyamoto but surely that is an anomaly for Nintendo considering it was in full development for over three years.

I personally think that one of the main reasons Nintendo went with a hybrid was so that they could do another modest spec leap because creating a console on par with even Xbox One spec wise would increase their development budgets considerably.
The average Western AAA budget these days is actually more like $80-$100+ million.

For Nintendo, it varies wildly based on what they're making. That "Zelda needs to sell 2 million copies." thing was actually before the year long (ultimately more than a year) delay IIRC, and when they thought they would max out at 200 staff (instead of the 300 they actually maxed out at), so I would suspect that was probably around a $40-$50+ million game.

But yes, I would model their regular Wii U games (removing things like Smash and Zelda) as mid-tier Japanese budgets, so more in the $12-$25 million just doing staff counts, years of development time, a general lack of heavily animated cutscenes/major set pieces, and adjusting a bit for Japanese salaries.
 

L~A

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14./20. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2015.12.10} (¥8.400) - 3.187 / 200.144 (+28%)

Game launched with under 30k first week. Great legs for PS title. Still full priced too. Wonder what the final LTD will be and will Ubi launch budget edition in future.
What's interesting is that it only charted 4 weeks this year. That's quite the steady sales for that one.

I'm interested in New 2DS XL sales because I want to see if replaces or not New 3DS XL. If it does, then we can say few people care about 3D. If the N3DS XL keeps being the best selling model, it means people want 3D.
Considering there's a 4k yen price difference between the two, I'm not sure that'd be fair comparison. Then again, I'm also curious about how the N2DSXL (and the 2DS itself) is going to sell.

And when Nintendo is finally going to discontinue that damn OG model, ha ha.
 

Chris1964

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2DS LL will extend 3DS life but the system is so late in it life that I wouldn't expect much. Its launch and DQXI a few weeks later is when it will hit its stride. Unless Switch takes the air from everything in holidays that is when it will see again respectable numbers.
 

Passose

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2DS LL will extend 3DS life but the system is so late in it life that I wouldn't expect much. Its launch and DQXI a few weeks later is when it will hit its stride. Unless Switch takes the air from everything in holidays that is when it will see again respectable numbers.
Do you think Pokemon ultras will help it?
 

Chris1964

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Of course it will but unless there is a LE bundle it will be small bump comparing to DQ.
 

Skullwaker

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Xenoblade X opened with about 86k on the Wii U right? I would be surprised if Xenoblade 2 didn't debut around 100k with how much better the Switch is doing (and how much better of a system it is for JRPGs).
 

vareon

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Not anywhere
SINoALICE, despite the giant server implosions, if having a pretty good start:
Yoko Taro's brand name is probably the strongest at this point, and people just had to know what this game is. Hopefully server issues are resolved soon.
and global release pls
 

Man God

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The average Western AAA budget these days is actually more like $80-$100+ million.

For Nintendo, it varies wildly based on what they're making. That "Zelda needs to sell 2 million copies." thing was actually before the year long (ultimately more than a year) delay IIRC, and when they thought they would max out at 200 staff (instead of the 300 they actually maxed out at), so I would suspect that was probably around a $40-$50+ million game.

But yes, I would model their regular Wii U games (removing things like Smash and Zelda) as mid-tier Japanese budgets, so more in the $12-$25 million just doing staff counts, years of development time, a general lack of heavily animated cutscenes/major set pieces, and adjusting a bit for Japanese salaries.
It's also looking more and more like Nintendo can just throw together a port team on the cheap and reuse almost all of its Wii U output to fill gaps in the next few years. I think everything besides Nintendoland and Starfox Zero would be easy to convert and everything else besides W101 would make a decent return.

They likely turned BOTW from a loss on a dead platform into a big windfall just by investing another year and some more money into it and could turn around and do similar things to the other dozen or so successful but not mega hit games they made on the Wii U. They just need to find the right teams to take them on, reliable external partners.

It's like what they did with Yoshi's Wooly World/Hyrule Warriors/Mario Maker, only this time on a more powerful platform that also happens to be portable. I see good things coming from places like Tantalus if this keeps up.
 

Shizuka

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Xenoblade X opened with about 86k on the Wii U right? I would be surprised if Xenoblade 2 didn't debut around 100k with how much better the Switch is doing (and how much better of a system it is for JRPGs).
What's the highest-selling Switch JRPG? 30k?
 

Psycho_Mantis

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14./20. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2015.12.10} (¥8.400) - 3.187 / 200.144 (+28%)

Game launched with under 30k first week. Great legs for PS title. Still full priced too. Wonder what the final LTD will be and will Ubi launch budget edition in future.
COD BO3 - 393k
BF1 - 337k
R6 - 272k
SW BF - 223k

R6 was a hit out of nowhere. It may even surpass BF1.
 
Yoko Taro's brand name is probably the strongest at this point, and people just had to know what this game is. Hopefully server issues are resolved soon.
and global release pls
Well, there's a major censorship controversy where they covered up all the womens' breasts, so you may interpret that in terms of a Western release as you like.

That's just for iOS right? I don't see FE heroes on that list
It's the daily chart, and Fire Emblem is not currently mid-event, but yes.
 

Xbro

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Xenoblade X is another exception.

I can't remember what TMS sold LT, but SDC will surely outsell it (which is kinda sad).
Well the argument is that Xenoblade 2 would sell better than Xenoblade X because of the environment being more RPG friendly no?
 

Skullwaker

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Well the argument is that Xenoblade 2 would sell better than Xenoblade X because of the environment being more RPG friendly no?
Oh, right. I thought you meant in general.

In that case, yeah. Other than DQX I can't think of another JRPG that sold more than 30k on the Wii U prior to Xenoblade X.
 

Sangetsu-II

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I'm interested in New 2DS XL sales because I want to see if replaces or not New 3DS XL. If it does, then we can say few people care about 3D. If the N3DS XL keeps being the best selling model, it means people want 3D.
Hey hiska-kun, you still doing the PS3 VS PS4 road to 5 million?