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[Bruno MB]

Anything less than 600k life time sales for Luigis Mansion 2 would surprise me.

Nintendo is pushing it hard. It will probably do better than Paper Mario: Sticker Star which just crossed the half a million mark to become the best-selling Paper Mario title (sorry for those who liked the old formula).

The original Luigi's Mansion sold 348.918.

 

[michaelius]

Well there are some possibilities:

- if it's number 1 it sold better than Animal Crossing so >70k
- if it's bigger than Miku then it's either a huge success for SS or huge flop for Miku on PS3.

 

[Mpl90]

Nintendo is pushing it hard. It will probably do better than Paper Mario: Sticker Star which just crossed the half a million mark to become the best-selling Paper Mario title (sorry for those who liked the old formula).

The original Luigi's Mansion sold 348.918.

Let's do it through a Chotto Comgnet Direct: Luigi Special

[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land - 138pt
[3DS] Kid Icarus: Uprising - 54pt
[3DS] Luigi's Mansion 2 - 128pt

Comparison with KI:U because it's a game that is seeing a sequel after lots of time from the first one, like Kid Icarus
Comparison with SM3DLand because...it's dangerously close.

 

[Mr Swine]

Well there are some possibilities:

- if it's number 1 it sold better than Animal Crossing so >70k
- if it's bigger than Miku then it's either a huge success for SS or huge flop for Miku on PS3.

Could easily mean that SS has sold over 200k while Miku is at 180k. Or that SS has sold 150k while Miku 120k, we will know in 2 days though. I think that SS has sold more than 200k

 

[Canis lupus]

No way. Really ? That would be one for the ages.

They've been tracking the 3DS version of Sonic All stars racing transformed since november, it came out last month.

 

[Mpl90]

They've been tracking the 3DS version of Sonic All stars racing transformed since november, it came out last month.

Even better.

 

[Celine]

I like how you all are checking this banned site

There is nothing wrong with checking that site.
It's just not a valid source for reasons I agree.

More than that remember that citing the source of the numbers you are writing about isn't an afterthought.
If someone here won't do that it's because we all assumes it either Media Create or (the superior tracker) Famitsu/Enterbrain and those are easily verifiable by every (sale-age) members.
Yeah, poor Dengeki/Ascii.

Eh, it's like correcting y's.

Or better, that reported Aliens: Colonial Marines sold 13k in its first week on Wii U.

Well, if Layton could!

 

[Celestial]

Could easily mean that SS has sold over 200k while Miku is at 180k. Or that SS has sold 150k while Miku 120k, we will know in 2 days though. I think that SS has sold more than 200k

I think that if Soul Sacrifice debut with 150k or more Sony will go bananas and will announce Soul Sacrifice 2 for this year.

 

[Zenaku]

It may not even mean that. 1st on Tsutaya doesn't mean first on Media Create. I specifically remember Gundam VS coming 1st over Mario Kart 7 on Tsutaya, with Mario Kart selling around 100k more on MC. I know there've been plenty of other instances too, but I can't remember specific names.

 

[Mr Swine]

I think that if Soul Sacrifice debut with 150k or more Sony will go bananas and will announce Soul Sacrifice 2 for this year.

And potentially kill the franchise? I don't think that releasing 2 games so close to each other is good.

 

[Celestial]

And potentially kill the franchise? I don't think that releasing 2 games so close to each other is good.

There isn't such posibility since the game wont debut with such numbers.Let's just wait for 2 more days and we are discussing it then.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Tch. Soul Sacrifice G. Look, even Dragon's Dogma is doing it.

 

[michaelius]

There isn't such posibility since the game wont debut with such numbers.Let's just wait for 2 more days and we are discussing it then.

Meh - but semi baseless speculation is fun

 

[Laguna]

150k isn´t exactly a huge number, especially for a game that has been in the spotlight for more or less a year and no game in sight that tries to steal that spotlight on the same system. So there is no reason to think that it is not achievable. We arent talking about a million-seller or 500k in the first week but about decent 150k.

 

[SgtCobra]

150k isn´t exactly a huge number

Everything for the Vita above 100k is a huge number, especially for a first party game.

Sony should be happy with everything that makes profit :lol

 

[Celestial]

150k isn´t exactly a huge number, especially for a game that has been in the spotlight for more or less a year and no game in sight that tries to steal that spotlight on the same system. So there is no reason to think that it is not achievable. We arent talking about a million-seller or 500k in the first week but about decent 150k.

Soul Sacrifice is a new IP on a system with small userbase so 150k will be very good number.Sony started pushing the game from December and before that we had some trailers,previews and a demo at TGS.There is also God Eater 2 and Toukiden for VITA that will come before Monster Hunter 4 probably May and June respectively.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Ah, goalposts twitching I see.

150k would be amazing for a new IP on a supposedly doomed handheld. The final Layton outing would look upon it glumly despite being on "beast mode" 3DS.

Not comitting to it doing 150k though. Seems a bit too optimistic.

 

[Celestial]

Ah, goalposts twitching I see.

150k would be amazing for a new IP on a supposedly doomed handheld. The final Layton outing would look upon it glumly despite being on "beast mode" 3DS.

Not comitting to it doing 150k though. Seems a bit too optimistic.

Yeah i'll stick with my original prediction for 70k-80k

 

[michaelius]

Anyone have that list of top 10 new IPs from 2012 ?

 

[electroplankton]

150k would be a really good opening, but let's not forget how heavily it has been pushed by Sony: bundles, TV ads, a lot of demo stations, double pack and limited editions, etc. etc.

And it's true that the installed base is small, but it's also true that SS would be one of the few games that one owning the platform should take. Like Blue Dragon was on 360.

 

[Celestial]

Anyone have that list of top 10 new IPs from 2012 ?

Famitsu

2012 Top 10 New IP:

01. [PS3] Dragon's Dogma (Capcom) {2012-05-24} - 468,108
02. [3DS] Bravely Default: Flying Fairy (Square Enix) {2012-10-11} - 274,972
03. [PS3] Tokyo Jungle (SCE) {2012-06-07} - 215,048
04. [WII] Go Vacation (Bandai Namco) {2011-10-20} - 167,902 / 348,704
05. [3DS] Fantasy Life (Level 5) {2012-12-27} - 134,008
06. [PS3] Binary Domain (SEGA) {2012-02-16} - 114,348
07. [3DS] Rhythm Thief & the Emperor's Treasure (SEGA) {2012-01-19} - 81,580
08. [PSV] Gravity Rush (SCE) {2012-02-09} - 80,597
09. [PS3] Lollipop Chainsaw (Kadokawa Games) {2012-06-14} - 75,084
10. [PS3] Asura's Wrath (Capcom) {2012-02-23} - 59,938

 

[electroplankton]

Famitsu

2012 Top 10 New IP:

01. [PS3] Dragon's Dogma (Capcom) {2012-05-24} - 468,108
02. [3DS] Bravely Default: Flying Fairy (Square Enix) {2012-10-11} - 274,972
03. [PS3] Tokyo Jungle (SCE) {2012-06-07} - 215,048
04. [WII] Go Vacation (Bandai Namco) {2011-10-20} - 167,902 / 348,704
05. [3DS] Fantasy Life (Level 5) {2012-12-27} - 134,008
06. [PS3] Binary Domain (SEGA) {2012-02-16} - 114,348
07. [3DS] Rhythm Thief & the Emperor's Treasure (SEGA) {2012-01-19} - 81,580
08. [PSV] Gravity Rush (SCE) {2012-02-09} - 80,597
09. [PS3] Lollipop Chainsaw (Kadokawa Games) {2012-06-14} - 75,084
10. [PS3] Asura's Wrath (Capcom) {2012-02-23} - 59,938

3DS is really showing how healthy environment is, that it can establish new IPs so well. Fantasy Life and Bravely Default are likely to cross the 300k mark (if not already with eShop sales).

 

[gkryhewy]

SS prediction: 99,999

 

[Laguna]

Soul Sacrifice is a new IP on a system with small userbase so 150k will be very good number.Sony started pushing the game from December and before that we had some trailers,previews and a demo at TGS.There is also God Eater 2 and Toukiden for VITA that will come before Monster Hunter 4 probably May and June respectively.

It´s true that it´s a new IP but it got a lot of previews and an ad campaign worthy of any established IP in Japan and was in the spotlight from Sony, gaming media and gaming-forums and was marketed to the PSV userbase as the substitute and rival of Monster Hunter. For example Fantasy Life is a new IP as well but it wasn´t in the spotlight at all, had far less marketing, a far more competetive environment on the system it was released on and in the end it sold 120k 1st week only because it was way undershipped. 150k first week isn´t at all that unachievable for an supposedly important title. We aren´t talking about some niche game with near to no marketing. 150k would be a decent result, but 150k isn´t exactly that huge of a benchmark, for a software positioned that way and that could benefit from the recent price-drop.

 

[DaBoss]

150k isn´t exactly a huge number, especially for a game that has been in the spotlight for more or less a year and no game in sight that tries to steal that spotlight on the same system. So there is no reason to think that it is not achievable. We arent talking about a million-seller or 500k in the first week but about decent 150k.

Bullshit, 150K would be great for Soul Sacrifice and the Vita.

 

[electroplankton]

It´s true that it´s a new IP but it got a lot of previews and an ad campaign worthy of any established IP in Japan and was in the spotlight from Sony, gaming media and gaming-forums and was marketed to the PSV userbase as the substitute and rival of Monster Hunter. For example Fantasy Life is a new IP as well but it wasn´t in the spotlight at all, had far less marketing, a far more competetive environment on the system it was released on and in the end it sold 120k 1st week only because it was way undershipped. 150k first week isn´t at all that unachievable for an supposedly important title. We aren´t talking about some niche game with near to no marketing. 150k would be a decent result, but 150k isn´t exactly that huge of a benchmark, for a software positioned that way and that could benefit from the recent price-drop.

I do also think that new IP have a particular role in platforms with such a small userbase, because they have the chance to become representative of that very hardware, and they don't have big fish to take the lion's share. It's also true the other way around, so big IPs bring users and hence new IPs have more chances to succeed. But Soul Sacrifice has been heavily advertised and marketed by Sony.

 

[Laguna]

Ah, goalposts twitching I see.

150k would be amazing for a new IP on a supposedly doomed handheld. The final Layton outing would look upon it glumly despite being on "beast mode" 3DS.

Not comitting to it doing 150k though. Seems a bit too optimistic.

To put things in perspective even wonderswan had game that sold more than 350k ltd. These sales for a game that has seen this kind of advertising and market positioning would be amazing only by the metric of a completely failed system and decent to good (depends on positioning, marketing budget) by any remotely successful system.

@DaBoss
lowered expectations and low standards ahoy. For the record I didn´t say 150k first week would be bad at all, I just disagree with painting this benchmark as something spectacularly difficult to achieve for a game positioned and marketed like SS, with no real competition on the same system.

 

[SmokyDave]

Famitsu

2012 Top 10 New IP:

01. [PS3] Dragon's Dogma (Capcom) {2012-05-24} - 468,108
02. [3DS] Bravely Default: Flying Fairy (Square Enix) {2012-10-11} - 274,972
03. [PS3] Tokyo Jungle (SCE) {2012-06-07} - 215,048
04. [WII] Go Vacation (Bandai Namco) {2011-10-20} - 167,902 / 348,704
05. [3DS] Fantasy Life (Level 5) {2012-12-27} - 134,008
06. [PS3] Binary Domain (SEGA) {2012-02-16} - 114,348
07. [3DS] Rhythm Thief & the Emperor's Treasure (SEGA) {2012-01-19} - 81,580
08. [PSV] Gravity Rush (SCE) {2012-02-09} - 80,597
09. [PS3] Lollipop Chainsaw (Kadokawa Games) {2012-06-14} - 75,084
10. [PS3] Asura's Wrath (Capcom) {2012-02-23} - 59,938

Half of 'em on PS3. Impressive.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Another irrelevant chart, this time from Famitsu most wanted:

http://www.magicboxnow.com/1303/game130309c.shtml

 

[electroplankton]

Half of 'em on PS3. Impressive.

Well, based only on JP numbers, Asura's Wrath and Binary Domain didn't perform so well. Both bombed worldwide also. Lollipop Chainsaw sold so and so in Japan but I think it succeeded in the West.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Lightning Returns is surprisingly high...

 

[Celestial]

Half of 'em on PS3. Impressive.

Yeah PS3 software is kicking in Japan.6 of these titles will get sequels or new editions soon.Dragons Dogma has potential of becoming big in Japan.

Capcom seems will push Deep Down as it's big next-gen title for PS4 and 720.I would call it Dragons Dogma 2 but Ono said it is a new IP soooo....i am a little confused at this point.

 

[DaBoss]

@DaBoss
lowered expectations and low standards ahoy. For the record I didn´t say 150k first week would be bad at all, I just disagree with painting this benchmark as something spectacularly difficult to achieve for a game positioned and marketed like SS, with no real competition on the same system.

If it sells well then the marketing push worked.

Another irrelevant chart, this time from Famitsu most wanted:

http://www.magicboxnow.com/1303/game130309c.shtml

Feels good that Ace Attorney 5 is up there.

 

[LayLa]

Famitsu

2012 Top 10 New IP:

01. [PS3] Dragon's Dogma (Capcom) {2012-05-24} - 468,108
02. [3DS] Bravely Default: Flying Fairy (Square Enix) {2012-10-11} - 274,972
03. [PS3] Tokyo Jungle (SCE) {2012-06-07} - 215,048
04. [WII] Go Vacation (Bandai Namco) {2011-10-20} - 167,902 / 348,704
05. [3DS] Fantasy Life (Level 5) {2012-12-27} - 134,008
06. [PS3] Binary Domain (SEGA) {2012-02-16} - 114,348
07. [3DS] Rhythm Thief & the Emperor's Treasure (SEGA) {2012-01-19} - 81,580
08. [PSV] Gravity Rush (SCE) {2012-02-09} - 80,597
09. [PS3] Lollipop Chainsaw (Kadokawa Games) {2012-06-14} - 75,084
10. [PS3] Asura's Wrath (Capcom) {2012-02-23} - 59,938

shouldn't Tousouchuu: Shijou Saikyou no Hunter-Tachi Kara Nigekire! aka Run For Money be counted as a new IP?
had sold 381,420 by end of year according to Garaph.

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

I wonder if SMT IV will outsell persona 4 golden.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I wonder if SMT IV will outsell persona 4 golden.

Unlikely.

And Persona only sold that much because it was paired with all kinds of media and merchan. I mean, even that fighting game sold extremely well, lol.

 

[Laguna]

Another irrelevant chart, this time from Famitsu most wanted:

http://www.magicboxnow.com/1303/game130309c.shtml

The most surprising about this chart is Luigi´s Mansion 2 placed third imo.

 

[Oersted]

Famitsu

2012 Top 10 New IP:

01. [PS3] Dragon's Dogma (Capcom) {2012-05-24} - 468,108
02. [3DS] Bravely Default: Flying Fairy (Square Enix) {2012-10-11} - 274,972
03. [PS3] Tokyo Jungle (SCE) {2012-06-07} - 215,048
04. [WII] Go Vacation (Bandai Namco) {2011-10-20} - 167,902 / 348,704
05. [3DS] Fantasy Life (Level 5) {2012-12-27} - 134,008
06. [PS3] Binary Domain (SEGA) {2012-02-16} - 114,348
07. [3DS] Rhythm Thief & the Emperor's Treasure (SEGA) {2012-01-19} - 81,580
08. [PSV] Gravity Rush (SCE) {2012-02-09} - 80,597
09. [PS3] Lollipop Chainsaw (Kadokawa Games) {2012-06-14} - 75,084
10. [PS3] Asura's Wrath (Capcom) {2012-02-23} - 59,938

Lists like these are always way too misleading. Comparing a game from 2012-02-23 to 2012-10-11 to define a Top 10 is a little odd.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Unlikely.

And Persona only sold that much because it was paired with all kinds of media and merchan. I mean, even that fighting game sold extremely well, lol.

I say likely due to a new entry on a much healthier platform. How have previous SMT games done?

 

[Bruno MB]

I can't see The Last Remnant in that most wanted list.

 

[SmokyDave]

The most surprising about this chart is Luigi´s Mansion 2 placed third imo.

I'm surprised there are 10 handheld and 10 console games on there. I'm also surprised that the handheld split is 60/40 rather than 90/10.

Surprising.

 

[Cha]

Another irrelevant chart, this time from Famitsu most wanted:

http://www.magicboxnow.com/1303/game130309c.shtml

Pleasantly surprising to see that the only title I'm paying attention to this week (Soul Sacrifice) is in the top 10 most wanted
Guess we're just gonna have to wait and see if this desirability is reflected in the sales. Gonna guess about 105,487

 

[electroplankton]

Famitsu Most Wanted doesn't give any indication about how those titles will actually sell.

 

[Laguna]

I'm surprised there are 10 handheld and 10 console games on there. I'm also surprised that the handheld split is 60/40 rather than 90/10.

Surprising.

What handheld split are you talking about? Sony/Nintendo? No that isn´t surprising considering you need to combine PSP and PSV first and that it´s a Famitsu readers most wanted chart. The positioning is actually a bit more interesting.

It´s far more interesting that three of the four PSV games are ports and that two out of these four PSV games have been released last week. Which means only two can still chart next week.

 

[Fabrik]

SS prediction: 99,999

Mine: 66,666

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I say likely due to a new entry on a much healthier platform. How have previous SMT games done?

All Megaten that sold over 200k since the 32bit gen on:

[PS1] Persona (391,566)
[SAT] Devil Summoner [355,656]
[PS2] Persona 4 (294,214)
[PS1] Persona 2: Innocent Sin (274,804)
[GBC] Devil Children: Black Book / Red Book (261,185)
[SAT] Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (258,679)
[PS2] Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (245,520)
[PSV] Persona 4 Golden (233,523)
[PS2] Persona 3 (210,319)
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (208,877)
[PS1] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment (200,103)


I think SMT4 will just barely pass 200k.

 

[Maedhros]

I'll mantain my prediction for SS: 120~150k.

SMT IV: 180~210k

 

[Hero of Legend]

All Megaten that sold over 200k since the 32bit gen on:

[PS1] Persona (391,566)
[SAT] Devil Summoner [355,656]
[PS2] Persona 4 (294,214)
[PS1] Persona 2: Innocent Sin (274,804)
[GBC] Devil Children: Black Book / Red Book (261,185)
[SAT] Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (258,679)
[PS2] Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (245,520)
[PSV] Persona 4 Golden (233,523)
[PS2] Persona 3 (210,319)
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (208,877)
[PS1] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment (200,103)


I think SMT4 will just barely pass 200k.

I can see that it could just hover above 200k, but lifetime (of course being legs dependent), I'm a bit more confident.

I don't know why (maybe for the reasons I said? XD), I can see it closer to 300k, but I'm no expert.

 

[SmokyDave]

What handheld split are you talking about? Sony/Nintendo? No that isn´t surprising considering you need to combine PSP and PSV first and that it´s a Famitsu readers most wanted chart. The positioning is actually a bit more interesting.

It´s far more interesting that three of the four PSV games are ports and that two out of these four PSV games have been released last week. Which means only two can still chart next week.

I'd totally overlooked the PSP, so it's 11 handheld and 9 console which isn't as cool as an even split.

As for the split, I'd thought of the 10 most wanted handheld games, 6 were 3DS and 4 were Vita (because I overlooked PSP). Given the disparity in install bases and release schedules, I'm amazed the Vita can hang with the 3DS in the desirability stakes. Yet, it apparently can.

Of course, these are just 'most wanted' charts, so there's no real significance to any of this.

 

[Magicpaint]

I'd totally overlooked the PSP, so it's 11 handheld and 9 console which isn't as cool as an even split.

As for the split, I'd thought of the 10 most wanted handheld games, 6 were 3DS and 4 were Vita (because I overlooked PSP). Given the disparity in install bases and release schedules, I'm amazed the Vita can hang with the 3DS in the desirability stakes. Yet, it apparently can.

Of course, these are just 'most wanted' charts, so there's no real significance to any of this.

Yeah, these charts represent a niche - what games the hardcore famitsu readers anticipate. SMTIV's position alone should tell you that it means nothing in terms of sales or mainstream appeal. GC games also made the list back when the PS2 was dominating