Naaaah, i have same prediction for west and japan.
The series is in decline and i don't see Final Fantasy XV sell much more than 5 million worlwide.
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Media Create Sales: Week 9, 2016 (Feb 29 - Mar 06)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Naaaah, i have same prediction for west and japan.
The series is in decline and i don't see Final Fantasy XV sell much more than 5 million worlwide.
I have about the same expectations in the west and in Japan. The series went too long without a main game, even longer without a good game, and the series just isn't "the venerable rpg" anymore.
manipulate
Member
Hard to imagine Persona 5 selling more than MGSV. MGSV was what, 500k total?
FFXV.. who knows lmao. I guess we'll find how how much cachet the FF brand still has in Japan. But I'd expect at least double Persona 5 sales.
FFXV.. who knows lmao. I guess we'll find how how much cachet the FF brand still has in Japan. But I'd expect at least double Persona 5 sales.
DarkLordMalik
Member
It will easily sell/ship 5 million worldwide. But the rest depends on how well it is received and WOM.
Well, Final Fantasy XIII has sold 6.8 million worlwide. I think 5 million more or less is a fair estimate for Final Fantasy XV.
I think Vena already said what i think, and i also fell like the hype is not as big as for Final Fantasy XIII.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Lol, what?
The hype has to start when marketing kicks off and it hasn't even kicked off yet
You remind me of the people who were saying The Division was DOA because of how there was no hype surrounding it and as we slowly grew closer to its launch, the hype started to build up and now it is the biggest new IP launch ahead of Destiny.
Just wait and see for the new uncovered FFXV event that will kickstart the marketing and the hype will slowly build leading into the game's launch.
A lot of people here are underestimating the appeal and brand of FF. Despite the bad WOM of FFXIII and the crap launch of XIV, the subsequent games have done well enough. ARR was a huge success for SE and that was despite its disaster launch. FFX|X-2 HD are one of the more successful remasters from SE. There is zero reason to assume that FFXV will suddenly become the lowest selling game in the series unless it has a terrible WOM/Reception.
Crap. you win this round.
Guess we will see, but at least so far i think will do less than Final Fantasy XIII...
What you predict?
There was a new mainline entry in 2013, which was received well critically and sold 5 million copies to date.
Seriously people underestimate the FF brand.If a relaunch of a failed MMO with the mainline number could sell 5 million units then FFXV will definitely surpas it.
DarkLordMalik
Member
For what? Worldwide? I easily expect it to surpass 5 million sold/shipped. Honestly it wouldn't be hard.
As for the peak of sales? Hard to say. The best selling FF worldwide is FFVII and that took years to reach the current 11 million LTD. It is also a cult classic among fans.
Because an offline offshoot of a singleplayer game usually does much worse than its singleplayer original. The fact thag FFXIV got so many sales speaks to the strength of the brand and its quality (and dismisses the arguments that FF has no selling power or that the franchise is damanged because the last entry was of poor quality).
KillerMan91
Member
I think it's pretty much given that we will see another price drop this fall for PS4 (from 35k to 30k yen). Nevertheless VR will be pretty expensive at least at first that is true.
Eolz
Member
So are you implying FFXV could go up to 11M sales WW?
I don't know, I see FFXIV as a good MMO, not as a good FF. The brand power helped mainly way before ARR/2.0.
Can't really call FF VII a cult classic. It's too mainstream for that.
DarkLordMalik
Member
I am telling the peak of the series is around 11 million and that too was a cult classic and one-of-a-kind deal that I doubt will happen again.
I am not expecting Witcher 3 level of crazy sales either (10+ million) but that counted PC too. I was just clarifying the people who think FFXV will have a trouble clearing 5 million, since it won't have any issue doing it IMO.
So what is the peak of sales after 5 million? Like I said, even I have no prediction for it but I do expect it to sell more than 1.5 million in Japan alone.
Wrong choice of word, sorry. I meant it was the most popular FF and yeh, mainstream and all.
I think it'll barely do one million in its first release.
Edge_Maverick
Member
Unless it's a really badly received game (which would kill its potential legs), I also believe FFXV should have no problem selling 5 million copies worldwide. Even then, I don't think SE would be too happy with those numbers.
And this time Square most likely will launch a PC version much earlier when compared to XIII, so if the game gets good word of mouth, that will certainly help (assuming it's a good port btw).
And this time Square most likely will launch a PC version much earlier when compared to XIII, so if the game gets good word of mouth, that will certainly help (assuming it's a good port btw).
I think 1.2 million or so is realistic. Those would still be super high numbers for a new console game in Japan these days.
I had about 1.05-1.10 in my mind for some reason.
1.2 would be great for a console game and I think people are generally excited for a single player FF game again.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Depends. Since I was not talking about 1.5 million retail sales. I think it is possible with 1.2 million at retail + digital + re-releases/discounts for a 1.5 million LTD.
If I recall, my expectations were for a difficult battle to be much more than 1m, so somewhere between 1-1.5m at best but definitely erring on the lower end so 1-1.2m, all sales accounted for, in Japan.
I don't see it doing >>5m WW LTD.
I mean, that's my point, lol, and that price drop is sort of tangential as it is too small to really affect the PSVR offer price point.
I don't see it doing >>5m WW LTD.
I mean, that's my point, lol, and that price drop is sort of tangential as it is too small to really affect the PSVR offer price point.
Rakuten Weekly Comment
- PlayStation 4 is (again) the best selling console of the week. All models are popular and sold by various retailers. PlayStation Vita and Nintendo 3DS along the lines of the previous week. Wii U is not present, only the retailer "Premium Select" put the console on chart at 43,000yen. Something that shows how "wanted" is the console.
- The Division, the best selling game of the week, and the Special Edition of Twilight Princess sold quite well. The PS4 version of Gundam Breaker showed better legs than the PSVita version.
- The most pre-ordered game is Yo-Kai Romance of the Three Kingdom, again Edion and Joshin were the key retailers. Dark Souls, Ace Attorney and Dragon Quest Monsters charted in high positions as well.
- Momotaro Dentetsu 2010 still selling as previous weeks. Rakuten Books confirmed new stock for March 20th. Call of Duty was the surprise of the chart.
http://ranking.rakuten.co.jp/weekly/101205/
- PlayStation 4 is (again) the best selling console of the week. All models are popular and sold by various retailers. PlayStation Vita and Nintendo 3DS along the lines of the previous week. Wii U is not present, only the retailer "Premium Select" put the console on chart at 43,000yen. Something that shows how "wanted" is the console.
- The Division, the best selling game of the week, and the Special Edition of Twilight Princess sold quite well. The PS4 version of Gundam Breaker showed better legs than the PSVita version.
- The most pre-ordered game is Yo-Kai Romance of the Three Kingdom, again Edion and Joshin were the key retailers. Dark Souls, Ace Attorney and Dragon Quest Monsters charted in high positions as well.
- Momotaro Dentetsu 2010 still selling as previous weeks. Rakuten Books confirmed new stock for March 20th. Call of Duty was the surprise of the chart.
http://ranking.rakuten.co.jp/weekly/101205/
Pennywise83
Banned
Can someone remind me why Momotaro Dentetsu became popular again? Because some sort of Tv show?
AcademicSaucer
Member
Which are the last million sellers in japan on home consoles ?
after Splatoon Im drawing a blank.
after Splatoon Im drawing a blank.
Mario Kart 8.
I guess those are Twilight Princess sales. Those are anime figurines, and the Special Edition with the amiibo should have sold quite well. If we add the underlined prices, we have 43.727 something a little bit better than expected sales.
Maybe I'm wrong, though. There's nothing more I could guess from those hints.
Maybe I'm wrong, though. There's nothing more I could guess from those hints.
Splatoon
Mario Kart 8
NSMB U
That's about it for console million sellers this generation. If we want to be really generous we can count GTA5, which managed a million when we add PS3, PS4, and the budget re-releases on PS3.
Last generation in comparison, there were 14 Wii games which sold over a million, and FFXIII on PS3. FFXIII outsold all the million sellers on WiiU this generation. The top selling Wii game - NSMB Wii, outsold all the million sellers on WiiU this generation combined. Lol.
Mario Kart 8
NSMB U
That's about it for console million sellers this generation. If we want to be really generous we can count GTA5, which managed a million when we add PS3, PS4, and the budget re-releases on PS3.
Last generation in comparison, there were 14 Wii games which sold over a million, and FFXIII on PS3. FFXIII outsold all the million sellers on WiiU this generation. The top selling Wii game - NSMB Wii, outsold all the million sellers on WiiU this generation combined. Lol.
If these are Zelda sales, I think they are pretty decent for a remaster.
manipulate
Member
This is pretty confronting
GhostTrick
Banned
Lol, what?
The hype has to start when marketing kicks off and it hasn't even kicked off yet
You remind me of the people who were saying The Division was DOA because of how there was no hype surrounding it and as we slowly grew closer to its launch, the hype started to build up and now it is the biggest new IP launch ahead of Destiny.
Just wait and see for the new uncovered FFXV event that will kickstart the marketing and the hype will slowly build leading into the game's launch.
A lot of people here are underestimating the appeal and brand of FF. Despite the bad WOM of FFXIII and the crap launch of XIV, the subsequent games have done well enough. ARR was a huge success for SE and that was despite its disaster launch. FFX|X-2 HD are one of the more successful remasters from SE. There is zero reason to assume that FFXV will suddenly become the lowest selling game in the series unless it has a terrible WOM/Reception.
Let's be honest: FFXIII trilogy left a stain on the FF brand. I'm hyped for FFXV, but there's still some doubts around the game. It's promising but it's not the kind of hype you'd blindly get on the sole name of the game. People aren't underestimating the appeal and brand of FF, because the brand has been damaged to a certain extent.
Pennywise83
Banned
To be fair, FFXV is the right occasion for SQEX to show it can have a big AAA game coming from the domestic development team which can sell extremely well in Western markets. FFXIII sold almost 7m units on consoles, there's no way FFXV will stop at 5m - and it shouldn't given how expensive the project looks like (and how much marketing SQEX is putting behind).
Wii Fit and Wii Party as well. If you count handheld platforms, also Brain Age, Tomodachi Collection, Nintendogs, Professor Layton. Inazuma Eleven from the second entry, and Love&Berry which was existing in the arcade space.
Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Play, Wii Party. If you're not counting just consoles and want to look at the DS as well, we have Brain Training, Tomodachi Collection, NIntendogs, Layton.
Pennywise83
Banned
Is this relevant to sales discussion? Just askin'.
Curious to see early sales impressions for the game, which is launching in a few hours in Japan.
Curious to see early sales impressions for the game, which is launching in a few hours in Japan.
Kresnik258
Member
What's all the pink stuff on the verge to the side supposed to be?
test_account
XP-39C²
Looks like some sort crystals to me.
To be honest if people have to read 2 pages of you failing to see difference in tone and age demigraphic between two simple images, they can also read a post with screenshots from an upcoming game.
If FFXV manages only 1,2m LTD in Japan that's a disappointing number and a big decline from the already declining XIII.
Pennywise83
Banned
That would be a huge decline - the biggest decline ever entry-over-entry for the franchise (-40%).
Discussions about the target demo of a game based on promotional materials are quite related to sales. For example, if we agree on a game targeted towards children released on a platform that notably lack the audience, we can make safer predictions on sales potential; someone also mentioned that Bandai Namco wanted to chase the MC audience (since apparently MC attracted a younger audience than the typical one PSV got over time), but this is suspicious as MC became a sales phenomenon only last year on PSV, while Next Order was supposedly already under development. Of course, a company can reposition the marketing towards a specific userbase - this is absolutely normal. As another informed user said, though, Next Order has been marketed heavily towards fans of the original Digimon World (a different segment of the adult fanbase). I hope this made clear to you why I feel a discussion about the target demo is more apt to a sales thread than posting random screenshots of a game.
Finally, regarding the discussion of some pages ago, I wasn't failing in anything. I didn't write the two "simple images" were the same - I just wrote that they didn't look such that one was targeting 15+ yo people and the other 7-14 yo people (i.e., writing that the difference in age demo wasn't much stark). I hope this helps in clarifying my point.
Most definitely Zelda (and seems I'm not the only one who's convinced of that).