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[marc^o^]

I think that fits quite nicely with my 20-30 million (before Q4). And a good part of the those are iPod shuffles, which are quite a lot cheaper than a PSP.

Sure Apple and some other are now big in the "walkman" business, but PSP does not try to be the new walkman.

I'm not even sure the shuffle accounts for 10% of the Ipod sales. But whatever. PSP was trying to be a new all in one walkman, that's not something to be argued. The thing is it failed to compete with the Ipod as a walkman player.

When next gen console are released next year, casual gamers will predictably stop buying the PSP and pick up a PS3/Rev/x360 instead. When this happens, who will still buy the PSP? Usual walkman consumers? No chance, these will buy an Ipod. GBA owners? These are more likely to get the cheap GBA compatible DS.

Sony will need to put its biggest marketing efforts in the PS3 promotion. PS3 will have to fight against 2nd gen x360 games, HD dvd players and even Revolution. PSP will be shadowed by the PS3 in 2006, it won't have the big marketing exposure it would need to overcome its lack of self selling beam.

There are reasons to be cautious about PSP sales previsions in 2006.

 

[quetz67]

I'm not even sure the shuffle accounts for 10% of the Ipod sales. But whatever. PSP was trying to be a new all in one walkman, that's not something to be argued. The thing is it failed to compete with the Ipod as a walkman player.

They used the brand name because they had it and I am sure they were aware that a pretty heavy $249 device you cant jog with will not compete with an iPod shuffle or mini/nano. And yes I think the shuffle accounts for more than 10% of iPod sales, because before mid 2004 without mini/shuffle available ipod sales were good but way below 5 million a year.

2006 might be hard year for PSP, but I bet a very successful if they get the games going. And I am pretty sure the PSP will compete quite well with the iPod video, which it comes close to competing with. But sure the ipod mini/shuffle/nano sales will destroy those of Sony's MP3 players they are competing with.

Enough for this argument, we can talk again in a year.