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[Ar¢tos]

I'm of the belief that there's no use in ever prolonging the inevitable, especially if doing so results in benefits for an entity that is seeking to cause you harm. Why allow Microsoft to have their cake and eat it too?

So if I'm Jim Ryan I'd just select the nuclear option, no fucking call of duty deal and no more COD on Playstation for future entries. Remove any sense of unpredictability from the equation, see what you're really working with and go from there into the future on your own terms.

With the current market share split and knowing that the budget of COD games already in production is accounting for a multiplatform release, blocking the release of the next COD on ps5 (or whichever COD releases after the current marketing deal ends) would be extremely damaging to the franchise and make MS lose some serious money (assuming the deal goes through).
As a revenge it would be effective, but it would also do big damages to Playstation finances.

 

[Kilau]

 

[xHunter]

 

[Topher]

Time to update the thread title again?

 

[Bernardougf]

I'm of the belief that there's no use in ever prolonging the inevitable, especially if doing so results in benefits for an entity that is seeking to cause you harm. Why allow Microsoft to have their cake and eat it too?

So if I'm Jim Ryan I'd just select the nuclear option, no fucking call of duty deal and no more COD on Playstation for future entries. Remove any sense of unpredictability from the equation, see what you're really working with and go from there into the future on your own terms.

I agree, better to cut losses now and prepare for the future .. you dont want to be dependent on MS goodwill .. let them play their game and sony should play theirs

 

[Jigsaah]

Even though the FTC situation is being reported as finished by many

As a 4D chess thought experiment, imagine if Biden appointed Corely actually is helping the FTC in this case. She puts on a good show, rushes the case at Microsoft's behest giving her an out by saying the order may contain errors in finding for Microsoft on the first attempt.

If the decision has major errors, like it does, it opens the door to an appeal, which you would expect to be found in the FTC's favour, and because the clock is ticking so fast, the 3rd leg, and final appeal to the supreme court is way off in the distance killing the deal.
Just flipping around the order of decisions would finish with the deal being cleared by the July deadline, whereas the result of an appeal win in favour of the FTC kills the deal. Which I think is an interest thought scenario.

Um, what?

I mean I'm imagining...but everything is so psychedelic as I envision this fantasy world with you.

Let's try spelling out these major errors. Not that I disagree, I'm just pointing out that you haven't specified what they are so I really don't have much to respond, or, imagine about in this...thought experiment.

Khan has bigger things to worry about. She goes before congress tomorrow. Where is the time for her to appeal this properly? Also the Judge literally has language in her conclusions that would combat an appeal if one were even filed.

I mean, dream big bro. But I don't think it happens like this.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

Oh wow. So this thing is actually still in early stages? So much for that CNBC report then.

 

[Bernardougf]

Time to update the thread title again?

Man .. this shit aint going nowhere.. fucking hell..

 

[adamsapple]

Time to update the thread title again?

Nah, they just said may require, we don't know if its going to happen yet. If/when they announce the re-probe.

 

[Sanepar]

I'm of the belief that there's no use in ever prolonging the inevitable, especially if doing so results in benefits for an entity that is seeking to cause you harm. Why allow Microsoft to have their cake and eat it too?

So if I'm Jim Ryan I'd just select the nuclear option, no fucking call of duty deal and no more COD on Playstation for future entries. Remove any sense of unpredictability from the equation, see what you're really working with and go from there into the future on your own terms.

I don't think this will work. Next move will be ea. There is any chance without fifa and cod?

They can pull off minecraft too when they have enough users.

Sony is fucked even if they try to buy something relevant square, capcom, from, cdpr they can be countered with ea and it is over.

On console game business everything orbit around cod, fifa, gta, minecraft and fortnite. The rest is just a plus.

 

[Fabieter]

Nah.... what's more ridiculous is not reading what I actually said. First off, I did not mention that as the ONLY reason. Please re-read. Second, using Bungie in your example makes no sense seeing as MS never said that they are not divulging next gen info to a competitor. That was Sony who said that.

It makes sense to not provide console specs super early to the competition.

I would eat a hat if ms would doing that.

There was no reason previously but they have to if they want optimized bungie and mlb games.

 

[GHG]

Sure it would, which is why I don't think it's gonna happen. Microsoft could really do without further harm to their reputation. It also doesn't make financial sense. They also testified in court that they would keep releasing on Playstation. Under Oath. If Sony decides not to give Microsoft devkits so they can make COD for Playstation, that's a choice Sony has to make. It's a difficult one, sure, but ultimately if they choose not to, then they are essentially manifesting their own lack of COD. That's not Microsoft whipping it away in that case.

I had said in an earlier post that if Bobby had the same deal for Sony as it did for Microsoft (to which some people have claimed here) then a 70/30 split moving forward for COD would actually be a 10% increase in revenue split for Sony. Microsoft had to pay 80/20. That would fund more AAA games and Jim Ryan is on record saying he's not worried about it.

Sorry to be blunt, but Microsoft don't give a fuck about their "reputation". They never have and never will, that's how they've become the juggernaut they are today. On the finance side of things, it would represent a blip on their balance sheet and it even then it would only be a short term sacrifice.

They said to EU regulators that they didn't have incentive (financial and reputational) to make Zenimax's games exclusive to their platforms (Xbox and windows PC) but they didn't bat an eye in doing so. Here we are yet again and people are falling for exactly the same tricks.

 

[Bernardougf]

I don't think this will work. Next move will be ea. There is any chance without fifa and cod?

They can pull off minecraft too when they have enough users.

Sony is fucked even if they try to buy something relevant square, capcom, from, cdpr they can be countered with ea and it is over.

On console game business everything orbit around cod, fifa, gta, minecraft and fortnite. The rest is just a plus.

FIFA is euroland ... cant see Europe favoring xbox even for fifa ... cant see EA taking this risk either... COD is different you cam bet on the american market for exclusivity.. FIFA ? not fucking way

 

[Topher]

 

[Jigsaah]

Was there anything more about the supposed "small divestiture"? A new investigation would take what, another month, meaning there would need to be an extension as part of a new deal.

Since it's being worked on directly with the CMA, I think this just delays the deal being final rather than being any kind of real roadblock.

But I dunno shit so....I'll just get back on my crack pipe over here...

 

[GHG]

On console game business everything orbit around cod, fifa, gta, minecraft and fortnite. The rest is just a plus.

Respectfully disagree, especially considering what Nintendo are doing.

Their current business model is heavily reliant on those titles but it doesn't have to be that way in order for them to survive and be successful.

 

[zapper]

the news about the cma doesn't change a thing, it will be their way of saving face imo. they will allow the merger and then another investigation will start which will end in nothing like the ftc complaint

 

[Astray]

I don't think so, I think the current situation is to hit the July 18th date going by this article which seems to report just the facts without a narrative of where we are at with the CMA and merger

Competition watchdog to reopen talks with Microsoft on Activision merger

The decision comes after Microsoft agrees to halt legal appeal against the original ruling and restructure the deal

www.computing.co.uk

On one hand, it's clear that there will be greater "cooperation" happening between MS and the CMA, that much is almost assured now. And a fresh probe won't be so fresh given that the majority of discovery has been found already (which is what took the majority of time last go-round).

This imo is just the two parties making whatever settlement go through as procedurally correct as possible. But that might take time so I think a month's extension or so might happen if MS needs it.

I'm confused. I thought the CMA already approved this.

Not yet, the two parties are essentially putting the CAT appeal on hold and seeking a settlement, it's entirely possible they don't reach one (but very very low possibility imo).

This has always been, and still remains the biggest question for me. And nothing that they've done since they've started to acquire studios/publishers has done anything to change my opinion on their management of first party studios.

If they are sensible they retain all of Activison's management structure (including Kotick) and start taking notes ASAP so that they can emulate the processes across the rest of their portfolio.

I think it's entirely possible for these gaming mega corps to pull a Disney and absolutely trash the giant brands they bought (they already eroded the brand equity of Star Wars and Indiana Jones, and are on the way to milking Marvel bone dry in all avenues of gaming), the same is happening for WB/Discovery as well..

This isn't just a Microsoft issue, we have seen this shit happen with other mega mergers in gaming's past, whether it's Square Enix almost completely killing the value of Eidos/Crystal Dynamics (not to mention Final Fantasy's up and downness ever since DQ wasn't seen as competition, but as a complimentary product post the Enix merger), or Activision itself completely killing the 'soul' of Blizzard.. etc.

 

[Kilau]

the news about the cma doesn't change a thing, it will be their way of saving face imo. they will allow the merger and then another investigation will start which will end in nothing like the ftc complaint

I don't think they can save face anymore. If their rulings aren't irrational, their behavior sure has been.

 

[zapper]

Was there anything more about the supposed "small divestiture"? A new investigation would take what, another month, meaning there would need to be an extension as part of a new deal.

Since it's being worked on directly with the CMA, I think this just delays the deal being final rather than being any kind of real roadblock.

But I dunno shit so....I'll just get back on my crack pipe over here...

they can allow the merger with the remedies proposed by the eu and then start a separate investigation in my opinion. the small divestment may come much later or not at all, they allow now to merge and then they will see substantially, and as far as I remember it has rarely happened that the regulators have spun off after a deal is done

 

[Kilau]

 

[GHG]

With the current market share split and knowing that the budget of COD games already in production is accounting for a multiplatform release, blocking the release of the next COD on ps5 (or whichever COD releases after the current marketing deal ends) would be extremely damaging to the franchise and make MS lose some serious money (assuming the deal goes through).
As a revenge it would be effective, but it would also do big damages to Playstation finances.

Do what must be done.

 

[tryDEATH]

MS asked for this as well.

Loved the interaction, can't wait for the next one all I ask is don't be as predictable with the bait.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

 

[aliadiere25]

Nah. She has a point.
Despite PS5 selling gangbusters, overall console market is not growing.

Even if you are only counting PlayStation and Xbox
Xbox+PS2 - 179+ million consoles
X360+PS3 - 172+ million consoles
XOne+PS4 - 172+ million consoles
Series X/S+PS5 - 58+ million consoles currently

If you also count Nintendo
PS2+Xbox+GameCube - 200+ million consoles
X360+PS3+Wii - 273+ million consoles
XOne+PS4+WiiU - 186+ million consoles

But people tend to forget that Switch is WiiU and 3DS replacement. So if you add 3DS to the overall numbers, console market is clearly not growing.
More like...shifting within.

It's funny to point to PS4 sales when talking about growth of console market when PS4 sold 117 million consoles while it's predecessor PS2 sold 155+ million consoles.

Because we're not even halfway through the cycle, and we had a thing called COVID that literally affected storage and the market pretty badly. PS5 has probably sold over 40m units, Xbox has sold over 21m units, and Nintendo hasn't even released a console for 6 years.

Also, because the PS4 sold 38m consoles fewer than the PS2 doesn't mean the market is shrinking, it just means that was an unreal number.... and it probably will never be beaten. And if we want to use that argument, the PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii only sold a grand total of 272m, but the next generation (PS4, Xbox One and Switch) is currently around 311m sold so far. That's an increase of 39m units from the last generation.

 

[Topher]

Loved the interaction, can't wait for the next one all I ask is don't be as predictable with the bait.

 

[Reckheim]

Shame this went through; hopefully after this the acquisitions will be more scrutinized but I doubt it.

 

[GHG]

What's being sold? Lulu?

 

[Kilau]

Do what must be done.

Take this MS!

Well yeah but when will the circus end.

 

[Astray]

Shame this went through; hopefully after this the acquisitions will be more scrutinized but I doubt it.

If anything this just made the door wide open for almost every gaming (and maybe non-gaming) merger you can think of.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

Shame this went through; hopefully after this the acquisitions will be more scrutinized but I doubt it.

I have some fresh CMA-related news for you...

 

[Topher]

So deal is done and this is all just a formality, I'm guessing?

 

[SF Kosmo]

Unsurprising the US government approves a merger. And the FTC laid out a pretty poor case.

I was hoping they would save MS from themselves, but sadly it seems they are now stuck buying this overpriced sinking ship.

 

[Ginzeen]

Maybe they want to have another “shot” at wasting “taxpayer” money.

Nah this bad boy closes. To close to the finish line. It's a done deal. CMA playing theatre. I'm unwaviered

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

One good thing about this deal closing will be that I never have to read about Psygnosis ever again.

That means you won’t attend my 3 hour retrospective on psygnosys?

 

[POKEYCLYDE]

Really cant wait for this forum reactions when COD goes full exclusive next gen as a launch game for the next xbox ... IF not earlier.

Dont @ me since that its no point in discussing this, its all speculation and the same old arguments from both parts.

But they should open a bet in vegas about keeping all COD multiplat at least until the end of next gen and see if anyone here has the balls to put their life savings on Phils Spencer's and MS words/intentions.

That would be the time to do it. I don't think it will happen before the 10 years is up though.

 

[Varteras]

Okay so let me see if I understand. The FTC is leaning to appeal based on what they feel was a poor interpretation by the judge of what the bar was supposed to be to grant a PI. The CMA and Microsoft were not, in fact, close to a deal but merely in early talks over it and the CMA has warned that an actual restructuring of the deal may require a whole new investigation. Which could take a fair amount of time to come to a new conclusion on. Am I caught up? Miss or misinterpret anything?

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

So deal is done and this is all just a formality, I'm guessing?

I can not answer that with any amount of certainty because I simply do not know if a deal has been hammered out

I can say there seems to be zero concern with some major players that this deal does not close soon

Edit - Want to add I haven't spoken with people any this morning as my ass just got back from my morning jog and just catching up

 

[Godot25]

Because we're not even halfway through the cycle, and we had a thing called COVID that literally affected storage and the market pretty badly. PS5 has probably sold over 40m units, Xbox has sold over 21m units, and Nintendo hasn't even released a console for 6 years.

Also, because the PS4 sold 38m consoles fewer than the PS2 doesn't mean the market is shrinking, it just means that was an unreal number.... and it probably will never be beaten. And if we want to use that argument, the PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii only sold a grand total of 272m, but the next generation (PS4, Xbox One and Switch) is currently around 311m sold so far. That's an increase of 39m units from the last generation.

But as I said, you ignore fact that Switch is successor to 3DS, not only for WiiU. So you should probably count that 3DS number in some way.

Also my (and point of the judge) stays. Console market is highly a growth vector. Fact that sales of consoles are currently frontloaded compared to 360/PS3 gen does not mean overall growth. Console market is at best stagnant.

 

[Topher]

Okay so let me see if I understand. The FTC is leaning to appeal based on what they feel was a poor interpretation by the judge of what the bar was supposed to be to grant a PI. The CMA and Microsoft were not, in fact, close to a deal but merely in early talks over it and the CMA has warned that an actual restructuring of the deal may require a whole new investigation. Which could take a fair amount of time to come to a new conclusion on. Am I caught up? Miss or misinterpret anything?

We have conflicting information on where the CMA stands. On one hand, CNBC says all it is a "small divestiture". On the other hand, CMA says this is early in talks. That doesn't jive.

 

[Moridianae]

I still maintain that it's not just about the scale of what this purchase is(and I'm assuming it's a done real now), it's the precedent it sets.

This is going to start a rather nasty acquisition spree and not just from Microsoft and Sony. I do believe Sony will retaliate in some form(and I'd be willing to make a wager it's Square-Enix or Fromsoft and occurs within the next year tops)

I think Tencent, Amazon, all of them will start up with buys and consolidation happens quick.

What's the FTC going to do? They've really done very little, historically.

 

[SixPin]

We have conflicting information on where the CMA stands. On one hand, CNBC says all it is a "small divestiture". On the other hand, CMA says this is early in talks. That doesn't jive.

Faber has been wrong several times on this case. While he might be right on this one , I wouldn't trust him 100%.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

We have conflicting information on where the CMA stands. On one hand, CNBC says all it is a "small divestiture". On the other hand, CMA says this is early in talks. That doesn't jive.

I have a feeling that Microsoft kinda oversold the whole setup to the media

 

[Jigsaah]

Sorry to be blunt, but Microsoft don't give a fuck about their "reputation". They never have and never will, that's how they've become the juggernaut they are today. On the finance side of things, it would represent a blip on their balance sheet and it even then it would only be a short term sacrifice.

They said to EU regulators that they didn't have incentive (financial and reputation Al) to make Zenimax's games exclusive to their platforms (Xbox and windows PC) but they didn't bat an eye in doing so. Here we are yet again and people are falling for exactly the same tricks.

Aight cool, fuck their reputation. I don't agree that it doesn't matter to them, but sure let's toss it out.

Do you have some evidence of what they said to EU regulators? That one kinda flew under the radar for me. So I'm not saying you're wrong, but I would like to see all the context before responding to that specifically.

They made Starfield exclusive, and what....Indiana Jones? Redfall.

The way I remember it is that Phil said buying Bethesda was definitely about exclusives. This was public and way before speaking to regulators in the EU I'm sure. They also said they would respect that if a franchise had an existing fanbase, they would keep those multiplat. So if they are keeping games like Fallout 4, Fallout 76, Dishonored and other established franchises on Playstation, then technically they're keeping their word.

Starfield has no fanbase yet cuz it's a new IP. Indiana Jones...I mean when was the last video game iteration of Indy...I mean come on. Redfall is also a new IP. They've also honored the deals Sony had with Deathloop and Ghostwire Tokyo.

Please explain to me where they went back on their word?

They said there's been no decision on TES6, which is YEARS away. We still need to see how games like The Outer Worlds 2 comes about. If they are multiplat, they are keeping their promise. If it's exclusive they are going back on it.

I will say it's suspicious that there is no decision on TES6 when they already made a staement about franchises with previous fanbases. There is also that Pete Hines email that seems to hint that Bethesda is going heavily in the exclusive side of things, while ABK will not be. That would both support and disprove parts of your point.

 

[Ronin_7]

CMA playing chess here lmao

 

[splattered]

If I can be selfish here for a minute... One of the first franchises I would love to see Microsoft high budget fund a revival of is Vigilante 8. Man I really loved car combat games in the '90s and 2000s. And with twisted metal making a sort of comeback right now it seems like the right time!

 

[Elios83]

We have conflicting information on where the CMA stands. On one hand, CNBC says all it is a "small divestiture". On the other hand, CMA says this is early in talks. That doesn't jive.

CNBC has fixed their report.
CMA hasn't accepted anything. Microsoft offered a small divestiture as a form of restructured deal.
CMA said they can't accept new remedies at this stage, the new restructured deal must go under a new probe.

Microsoft-Activision deal moves closer as judge denies FTC injunction request

The U.S. government can now bring the judge's decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit.

www.cnbc.com

UK's CMA open to new Microsoft-Activision probe after u-turn

Britain's competition regulator said on Wednesday a restructured deal between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard could satisfy its concerns, subject to a new investigation, marking a climbdown in its opposition to the biggest gaming deal in history.

www.reuters.com

The whole thing seems basically to allow CMA to skip the CAT appeal and take the ball directly into their hands again.

 

[tryDEATH]

The CMA just wants to play with some vulnerable peoples emotions that are still clinging to anything they can in hopes that this deal collapses.

This them just grandstanding as they took a big reputational hit, I expect to hear much more from the CMA before they approve the merger while MS keep their mouth shut.

 

[splattered]

Aight cool, fuck their reputation. I don't agree that it doesn't matter to them, but sure let's toss it out.

Do you have some evidence of what they said to EU regulators? That one kinda flew under the radar for me. So I'm not saying you're wrong, but I would like to see all the context before responding to that specifically.

They made Starfield exclusive, and what....Indiana Jones? Redfall.

The way I remember it is that Phil said buying Bethesda was definitely about exclusives. This was public and way before speaking to regulators in the EU I'm sure. They also said they would respect that if a franchise had an existing fanbase, they would keep those multiplat. So if they are keeping games like Fallout 4, Fallout 76, Dishonored and other established franchises on Playstation, then technically they're keeping their word.

Starfield has no fanbase yet cuz it's a new IP. Indiana Jones...I mean when was the last video game iteration of Indy...I mean come on. Redfall is also a new IP. They've also honored the deals Sony had with Deathloop and Ghostwire Tokyo.

Please explain to me where they went back on their word?

They said there's been no decision on TES6, which is YEARS away. We still need to see how games like The Outer Worlds 2 comes about. If they are multiplat, they are keeping their promise. If it's exclusive they are going back on it.

I will say it's suspicious that there is no decision on TES6 when they already made a staement about franchises with previous fanbases. There is also that Pete Hines email that seems to hint that Bethesda is going heavily in the exclusive side of things, while ABK will not be. That would both support and disprove parts of your point.

I think at this point of the game with the cost of development and potential revenue on the line and potential mindshare of fans etc... Exclusivity is probably very much a moving target with a lot of moving parts and what has said one day may change to the next so it's probably really up in the air at this point.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

CMA playing chess here lmao

If the CMA actually pulls out a rabbit from a hat and stops this I will, until the day I die, publicly defend English food as the best in the world. And that includes the offense to God that is putting a pie in a burger bun.