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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Three

Member
Projections in any business mean nothing.

I invested in weed stocks in 2017 when it was a gold rush of analyst estimates and tons of companies doing it. I remember projections like "by 2025, the cannabis market will be in excess of $200 billion"

Were 2 years away and I don't think all the big weed companies combined are even at $2 or $3 billion.

Well, lets see if the industry can grow $197 billion in 2 years. lol
You invested in companies asking for money to grow plants people can grow at home? It's called "weed" for a reason. 😄
You would have been better off investing in Monsanto or something.
 
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drganon

Member
Ok but that doesn't address what I said, the CMA isn't the world which is why they are being pressured by the UKs most powerful government officials. That and the deal does not require CMA approval but it certainly makes things easy if the CMA approves. The acquisition agreement can be altered if the parties desire. The deal will pass, it is inevitable now. There is no major obstacle for MS now that 2 of the key 4 regulators have approved it. The US will approve it by the end the year because the FTC does not have the facts to block this deal, they lose pretty much every merger case and the EU has made the FTCs life even harder now.

That leaves the UK, with all other big regulators approving that leaves the UK in a tough position as they will not want to go against the world geopolitically specially in a US - US merger that the US has approved. It's bad enough with EU approval but now China and soon the US will break the CMA. One of their biggest excuses in the tribunal and when they testified to parliament was that the US was blocking it showing that the CMA is not alone in it's block. With no one backing it up the CMA will either reassess or risk MS closing without them and paying whatever fees and perhaps even carving out xCloud ABK games out of the UK. But before such a scenario the CAT would have to rule in the CMAs favor which is not looking very likely after yesterdays CAT hearing. The acquisition will close it's not a question of whether but when, if the CMA cuts a deal before the CAT trial it can close before July/august. If not then the CAT will handle it.
Whatever you say, Robert.
 

L*][*N*K

Banned
At least we have dates now.
Jeremy Strong Hbo GIF by SuccessionHBO
 

Nydius

Member
No you don't the merger agreement can be altered when ever the parties want I already stated this in my previous post. And you don't even need the FTC to close, you can close without their approval frankly you don't seem to know much about US law.
Keep huffing that hopium bud. This issue has been addressed and debunked multiple times over throughout this thread. Yet here you are, shilling the same bullshit.

That you Florian?
Or maybe Jez?

Another pathetic shill to block.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
Around 40 nations have approved the deal and only one nation has blocked and defined cloud as its own market, everywhere else the cloud is seen as a subset of the gaming market. The CMA's theories have failed to stand up to scrutiny to every other regulator in the planet thus far.

Why do one side(your side) of the discussion always choose to frame things in a dishonest way?

The EU did one job - the same as the CMA - for 27 nation states. Not 27 jobs for 27 nations, and ironically had the UK still been part of the EU, our CMA probably would have still signalled to the UK government that the deal was an SLC, and the UK would have used its old veto to block the deal by the entire EU in the process. But no one would count that as 28 countries blocking the deal.

As it stands, of the four authorities listed in the SEC filing merger document that need to approve, China have approved the deal, and the EU have needed remedies - as a potential grift for fining with no thought for impact on competition- to approve. The two most important markets by gaming revenue for CoD, the UK and US are both blocking the deal. The UK have decided to block, and the US - where both companies are from - are in their process of opposing the deal with the delaying and legislation tools they have, and have informed the world they are blocking an "illegal" merger.

Not quite the same message with the context of facts, now is it?
 
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wolffy66

Member
Projections in any business mean nothing.

I invested in weed stocks in 2017 when it was a gold rush of analyst estimates and tons of companies doing it. I remember projections like "by 2025, the cannabis market will be in excess of $200 billion"

Were 2 years away and I don't think all the big weed companies combined are even at $2 or $3 billion.

Well, lets see if the industry can grow $197 billion in 2 years. lol
That's kinda my point, it just doesn't seem to have any traction. Here we are with it already workable, to varying degrees based on platforms, and very few people even care a tiny bit. It's the form factor, it's just never gonna be good enough on portable devices, no matter how well it runs.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
Could it be paid coordinated permanent defence??

Where does this end????
Take that thought through to full conclusion. Who has a hand on the wheel on our side of the argument and could coordinate our fragmented views?

It is rhetorical, because the answer is no one. Shock surprise, maybe we are just gamers with a lifetime of gaming behind us that feel we have a lot to lose from Microsoft's ill advised actions we oppose.
 
No you don't the merger agreement can be altered when ever the parties want I already stated this in my previous post. And you don't even need the FTC to close, you can close without their approval frankly you don't seem to know much about US law.

They would have altered it soon after the block to dodge the CMA. That didn't happen.

Also why they wanted everything done before July the 17th. If the merger could be changed so easily they would have changed that date already.
 
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Thirty7ven

Banned
It’s certainly interesting that Kotick decided to address workplace problems with Variety at this point in time.

Anyways, there’s still room for remedies maybe. MS could accept to have free license to stream ABK games on the platforms they sell the games, and platforms get 30% of MTX. That would be fair enough.

I think they will pull it through. I can’t see CMA simply dropping their proposed remedies to the level of the EC as that would be a major defeat for them, but who knows?

I’m ready to read posters bragging about Xbox owning COD while they laugh that Marathon is multiplatform.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Those are based on projections tho. It's not currently important in any tangible sense.

Could it be some day? Maybe but I don't sense it gaining any sort of traction. It's just there, same as it's been.

Well....the industry disagrees and that's what it has said to the CMA. That's what Phil Spencer has said as well.
 
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splattered

Member
Ok guys the 17th is my birthday, I'm gonna have to blow out this candle... You want me to wish for this deal to fail or continue/succeed, I'm leaving it in your hands... :p
 

Bojanglez

The Amiga Brotherhood
No, google didn't bother themselves that much.
There were a lot of content that weren't up for sale by other companies.

Unlike Nvidia, google went with its own system. It was like a mini console, but only works through cloud. That itself made the service limited.



Had google used windows OS, they would have been able to get a lot of content. They limited themselves, and paid the price.
A great argument for not giving MS more power in cloud gaming. They have a dominance thanks to their OS and could control the market further if they also have hands on more content levers. All these 'competitors' are partners or clients of Microsoft. I can only think of Sony that is a remaining competitor that doesn't use MS software or services somewhere in the delivery chain for their cloud streamlining service, as they seem to run PS3 and PS4 hardware and software for their cloud delivery?
 
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IFireflyl

Gold Member
I didn't land. Maybe you think I'm a Microsoft fan, so I'd blame everything on Sony? But ABK being in hot water only helps Microsoft in renegotiation.

At least try to make your joke make sense.

It landed. It just required people to have a sense of humor. That you didn't see this as a joke is more telling about you than bitbydeath bitbydeath . Don't take everything said on the internet as an attack.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
It’s certainly interesting that Kotick decided to address workplace problems with Variety at this point in time.
Dual benefits:

1. It reminds the CMA and CAT that how horrible we are and ABK employees have problems this acquisition would solve. Let us have our 40% premium share or bad things will continue in ABK and CMA will be responsible for it.
2. Bobby trying to secure his management position by addressing these concerns because the merger is unlikely to happen now.
 

IFireflyl

Gold Member
So you can't explain it. Ergo, it didn't land.

I just explained it. It's the same thing as people getting bad news and saying, "Thanks Obama." That's the joke. If you want to be a bitter little man, then go for it. I'm done responding to you if you're this dense that you can't understand a simple joke.
 
Google failure was their own fault. They are mostly to blame.
Stadia was DOA, the moment they showcased it. They literally broke too many promises. And most games that was promised was not shown.

Like every product they made, they didn't put that much effort in to it.

Stadia with another company would have found it's footing.
I never said that xCloud was the only reason, and more importantly - I trust Google's word, and the CMA backing that up with their own research, than folks on the internet who don't have the full story of everything that went on. There is no reason for Google to get involved in regulator oversight; its highly unusual actually. Google could've easily made this claim, and the CMA found that just wasn't the case, and dropped the cloud SLC. Yet, the CMA didn't do this.
 
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POKEYCLYDE

Member
I just explained it. It's the same thing as people getting bad news and saying, "Thanks Obama." That's the joke. If you want to be a bitter little man, then go for it. I'm done responding to you if you're this dense that you can't understand a simple joke.
So the presupposition is that I'm an Xbox fanboy and would tacitly blame Sony for anything that could possibly jeopardize this deal. That's the joke.

Why that doesn't make a lick of sense is that ABK being in hot water actually improves the chance at a successful renegotiation.

It isn't analogous to "Thanks Obama", it's just a poorly thought out dig at someone who has been known to be in favour of the deal.
 

drganon

Member
So the presupposition is that I'm an Xbox fanboy and would tacitly blame Sony for anything that could possibly jeopardize this deal. That's the joke.

Why that doesn't make a lick of sense is that ABK being in hot water actually improves the chance at a successful renegotiation.

It isn't analogous to "Thanks Obama", it's just a poorly thought out dig at someone who has been known to be in favour of the deal.
let-it-go-frozen.gif
 
Oh sweet! Time for me to pick your brain again. How do you feel MS and ABK will proceed now that the date for the hearing is beyond the deadline? With the potential for a decision to come as far out as 3 weeks after. Which doesn't even actually guarantee a favorable outcome, nor is it in any way the last word even if the CAT accepts the appeal.
Its hard to say. I cannot imagine ATVI's leadership is particularly excited at signing a re-negotiated merger agreement when the chance of getting the CMA block overturned is still just as low as its ever been. They've been unable to cut any deal for 18 months, their biggest marketing contract (Sony) for their biggest franchise (CoD) is on the cusp of expiring, and a 1st party is getting ready to start signing 3rd party deals for platform support and even marketing deals potentially (Nintendo).

Based on my experience, I imagine if ATVI were to re-sign a merger agreement, it will involve a shorter merger timeline (8-9 months max) with a far higher break fee - they would add the current $3b they are entitled to along with a premium for the extension; going as low as $4.5b to $6b (total) would totally be in the cards. At the absolute minimum, I viewed Kotick's Variety article yesterday as a form of corporate hedge betting and potential white-washing for a new buyer - there is no reason to position Kotick as sound leadership if the plan is to have him be out in the next couple of months. Theres a reason we only saw him during this process only if they felt the deal needed a cheerleader in the media.

The fact that the big focus of the Variety article was to wash current ATVI of culpability leads me to believe the plan is that they envision a likely scenario where they either need to continue with Kotick as CEO or court another buyer, potentially Viacom/Comcast.
 
Keep huffing that hopium bud. This issue has been addressed and debunked multiple times over throughout this thread. Yet here you are, shilling the same bullshit.

That you Florian?
Or maybe Jez?

Another pathetic shill to block.
I read 3 post of him, the copium in this one is to strong for me, so...and that is an exception, i blocked him....
 
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PaintTinJr

Member
A great argument for not giving MS more power in cloud gaming. They have a dominance thanks to their OS and could control the market further if they also have hands on more content levers. All these 'competitors' are partners or clients of Microsoft. I can only think of Sony that is a remaining competitor that doesn't use MS software or services somewhere in the delivery chain for their cloud streamlining service, as they seem to run PS3 and PS4 hardware and software for their cloud delivery?
Completely, and there is a more subtler thing going on by being dependent on Windows, too.

The DirectX input interface would then becomes entrenched in every game solution being used on their cloud, which then means the template control pad solution to get supported by those cloud implementations of games start with ... you guessed it, an Xbox game pad, needing changed specifically for every game they'd license for their cloud solution because of DirectX updates cadence set by Microsoft. Whereas a custom linux spin by (eg) Stadia for their own gamepad through proton/WINE would be a one time solution that would become the default, just like it is for the SteamDeck in their Linux spin..
 

PaintTinJr

Member
I know quoting myself probably seems wrong, but this part of a previous comment made was really about whether Microsoft have made a bit of a mistake getting Beard to represent them.
....

IMO it also felt like Beard's Eu expertise and reference to the electronic document system that the EU use for tribunals, he said should be used for this tribunal went down like a lead balloon with the UK CAT judge. IMO Beard only fully recovered his Britishness stature with the judge when the discussion of tribunal wording of England & Wales, and the absence of Scotland and Northern Ireland came up,- Beard legally asserted the tribunal decision would be for all of the UK and the judge could legal decide either way.
...

AFAIK Beard was highly successful pre Brexit building his reputation where he only needed to win in the EU to win all the nations states, too.

Seeing the judge uninterested in how the EU do electronic documents makes me think that Beard's ideal scenario for fighting this appeal was to say the EU approved, here let me transpose their argument for a do over at the CAT and override the CMA argument, which I think is exactly the opposite of what a reinvigorated UK authority - as the highest authority for Competition in the land, since Brexit - wants to hear and will be hostile to such a tactic, more than say, if he said this is how the CADE do it and made their decision :)

Beard wanting it all to be like his normal EU safe space in a procedural way, suggests he might be a little off his game when the tribunal's implementation is going customized to the trial to save the judge work, and lower the burden on the CMA - going by the judges comments at the end.
 
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