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[PleoMax]

I think that's where you are wrong. Halo 3 will NOT be outselling Halo 2 at all. You might be a new user or something because the hype for Halo 2 started 2 years before the game actually came out and at that point it was bigger than the hype of Halo 3 right now. It just doesn't even compare. Halo 2's sales attributed to the hype, hence why it was able to sell over the original Halo. The peak of Halo sales was reached with Halo 2.

I can bet a month's ban on this, Halo 3 will not be outselling Halo 2 when comparing their first 6 months of sales.

I'm pretty sure Halo 3 will sell more than Halo 2 in the end.

This ain't no MGS situation here. Halo 3 is actually tracking better, taking into account the pre orders.

 

[Cubsfan23]

I think that's where you are wrong. Halo 3 will NOT be outselling Halo 2 at all. You might be a new user or something because the hype for Halo 2 started 2 years before the game actually came out and at that point it was bigger than the hype of Halo 3 right now. It just doesn't even compare. Halo 2's sales attributed to the hype, hence why it was able to sell over the original Halo. The peak of Halo sales was reached with Halo 2.

I can bet a month's ban on this, Halo 3 will not be outselling Halo 2 when comparing their first 6 months of sales.

I'll bet a permaban

 

[C4Lukins]

I think that's where you are wrong. Halo 3 will NOT be outselling Halo 2 at all. You might be a new user or something because the hype for Halo 2 started 2 years before the game actually came out and at that point it was bigger than the hype of Halo 3 right now. It just doesn't even compare. Halo 2's sales attributed to the hype, hence why it was able to sell over the original Halo. The peak of Halo sales was reached with Halo 2.

I can bet a month's ban on this, Halo 3 will not be outselling Halo 2 when comparing their first 6 months of sales.

I am game for that bet. Although I would hate to see anyone banned because of my superior prediction skills.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I just booked this page under "Halo 3 ban bets galore". It will be referenced in the future.

Probably brought up lots of times, but from the other thread about the million Halo 3 pre-orders:

-Halo 2 had 750k pre-orders a month before release, and ended with 1.5m
-Halo 3 is at over 1m pre-orders seven weeks before release

At the very least, it's going to come out the gate bigger.

 

[segarr]

How many Xbox 1's were sold by the time Halo 2 came out and how much are sold now (Or can we expect by Halo 3 release)??? That has to factor quite high into this.

 

[Gadfly]

I just booked this page under "Halo 3 ban bets galore". It will be referenced in the future.

Probably brought up lots of times, but from the other thread about the million Halo 3 pre-orders:

-Halo 2 had 750k pre-orders a month before release, and ended with 1.5m
-Halo 3 is at over 1m pre-orders seven weeks before release

At the very least, it's going to come out the gate bigger.

Come on, give use your own predictions.
First day?
Till the end of September?
By year's end?
Lifetime?

 

[C4Lukins]

Are you up for it Dahbomb? I will even give you a 250k handicap for the preorder discrepancy.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Come on, give use your own predictions.
First day?
Till the end of September?
By year's end?
Lifetime?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6533828&postcount=1

September NPD - 2.5 million

WW total - 5 million units <by end of year>

Basic reasoning: Lower 360 base than the Xbox had at the time, but early adopters are more likely to have a higher concentration of Halo fans.

I'll stick to that, but I might be lowballing it, especially the EOY total, given the price cut.

And no, I'm not betting squat. I have no such appetites.

 

[Xamdou]

Halo 3 w/ the 3 SKU's can easily break the 2 million mark on first day sales considering the 360 fanbase at this point in time is over 11 million. Now keep in mind the recent price drop of all 360 SKU's (W/HDMI +HeadSink+3 Year Warranty) plus MS's Co-Marketing efforts with 3rd-Party Publishers to sell more of their games will easily push forward the 360 user base beyond the 15 million mark World Wide.

So my predictions are:

1st Day Sales: At least 2 million or more.
1st Week Sales: 3-5 Million.
Fall/End Of the Year Sales: 6 Million+++ Considering the 3 360 SKU Price Drop, Insane Halo 3 Marketing blitz and of course Late September release date giving 3 month Fall Holiday to gobble up sales.
Lifetime Sales of Halo 3 - At least 10 Million or more :O

 

[Stinkles]

Shudder.

Halo + Sales Age = ohnoes

 

[Shpeshal Nick]

Day One sales: 3.5 million

By Years End: 6 million

End of Xbox 360 Life Cycle: 11 million

 

[GhaleonEB]

Shudder.

Halo + Sales Age = ohnoes

It's GAF. Numbers are serious business. :lol

And I'm really just up because a thread in the OT freaked me out beyond belief, so I can't sleep. Need something to do while I'm up.

 

[Gadfly]

Shudder.

Halo + Sales Age = ohnoes

Feel free to step aside and just watch.

 

[Xamdou]

Shudder.

Halo + Sales Age = Fun!

So Frankie what are your 1st Day H3 Sales /1st Week/End Of the Year Prediction in terms of copies of your legendary game?

 

[Gadfly]

Day 1: 1.8 million
End of September: 2 million
EOY: 2.5 million
Lifetime: Don't know.

 

[C4Lukins]

Day 1: 1.8 million
End of September: 2 million
EOY: 2.5 million
Lifetime: Don't know.

I think you are seriously lowballing it. Gears of War sold 2 million in November and December alone as i recall.

 

[PleoMax]

Day 1: 1.8 million
End of September: 2 million
EOY: 2.5 million
Lifetime: Don't know.

lol

 

[Gadfly]

I think you are seriously lowballing it. Gears of War sold 2 million in November and December alone as i recall.

A lot of great games this holiday and I will not be surprised if some people delayed buying Halo.

 

[Tieno]

A lot of great games this holiday and I will not be surprised if some people delayed buying Halo.

I read a post somewhere where someone said he wouldn't buy Halo on launch day but instead would get it sometime later because of all the great games coming this holiday.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Since people are doing the predicting thing, be aware that the reporting period extends into October, so there are nearly two full weeks of sales in September NPD.

 

[Stinkles]

It's GAF. Numbers are serious business. :lol

And I'm really just up because a thread in the OT freaked me out beyond belief, so I can't sleep. Need something to do while I'm up.

Spoiler

Harlequin Babies?

 

[Gadfly]

lol

Well either numbers will beat my estimates in which case I will be pleasantly surprised or will be close to my numbers in which case I get bragging rights. win-win.

 

[Tieno]

Well either numbers will beat my estimates in which case I will be pleasantly surprised or will be close to my numbers in which case I get bragging rights. win-win.

You'll be the envy of GAF.

 

[Gadfly]

I read a post somewhere where someone said he wouldn't buy Halo on launch day but instead would get it sometime later because of all the great games coming this holiday.

:lol
Anecdotal evidence+1

 

[GhaleonEB]

Spoiler

Harlequin Babies?

Spoiler

Barry Manilow.

 

[Ramirez]

Hay guys whatz goin on in here?

 

[Fjord]

My aunt & uncle run a Mom & Pop store, "The Halo Hut", and most of their customers are planning on waiting till christmas to buy Halo.

 

[Tieno]

Hay guys whatz goin on in here?

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

:lol

 

[godhandiscen]

US only:
Day 1 sales:
2.7 Million
Lifetime:
8 Million

Worldwide:
Lifetime:
11 Million

 

[Odysseus]

didn't the predicting thing already happen here?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=158612&highlight=Halo

 

[Maximilian E.]

-----

all of these will be eaten up by some gaf members come 25th september..
it will be an epic crowmuching feast and some guys are already sitting at the table....

 

[Gadfly]

didn't the predicting thing already happen here?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=158612&highlight=Halo

We were warned not to bump that thread.

 

[Oblivion]

MS must have some solid numbers if they're making such bold predictions already. And remember, it's $10 higher than it was with Halo 2.

Versus 15mil copies of GT3 [with pack-ins] on a sub-20mil PS2...

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I hope you're not implying GT3 sold that much before PS2 even went past 20 million units.

 

[Gadfly]

crows..
-----

all of these will be eaten up by gaf members come 25th september..
it will be an epic crowmuching feast and some guys are already sitting at the table....

Bring them on!

 

[Luckyman]

So what is the installed base disparity between Xbox when Halo 2 launched and 360 now?

 

[AniHawk]

So what is the installed base disparity between Xbox when Halo 2 launched and 360 now?

The Xbox was at 11.7 at the end of 2004 (I think it hit 1m in December, so you could knock off a bit of that). The 360 should have a little over 6m by the time Halo 3 hits.

 

[Mgoblue201]

So what is the installed base disparity between Xbox when Halo 2 launched and 360 now?

In America, I believe six million (as of now) vs. ten million. I counted it up a little while ago to compare the two.

Why not? They are all there for the entertainment dolar. And you don't get it really, there's these entertainment industry gross records, where even books figure in. That's what's being talked about here.

I can see the interest it would hold to someone who stands to benefit from the game, but I don't see how it is relevant to the fan. You couldn't have two more different ways of reaching the same end. Different budgets, different production cycles, different prices, different costumers. You can compare the end number, but it doesn't really tell you anything about all of the smaller components involved. I mean even this one number probably doesn't mean that much since I'm sure Spider Man ended up grossing more in the long run. And I'm sure different sources are getting their pieces of the pie. To me it just goes so far beyond comparing two numbers that it ultimately becomes pointless. To compare the two would almost mean that they have something in common, which I don't really see. If it's just to say that Halo 3 will be impressive, well yeah, but in a completely different way.

 

[AlteredBeast]

The game will sell at least 2 million copies in September and will finish out the year at around 3.5 to 4.

Halo is huge, remember. This isn't Killzone or some other fly-by-night series. This is the sequel to the sequel to the game that single-handedly brought validity to owning an XBox.

 

[Ceb]

what else game have the selling power of halo on the xbox 360 or ps3?

Why aren't we counting the Wii? Even though I'm not a fan, Super Smash Bros Brawl will outsell Halo 3 WW.

 

[Instigator]

Considering it's not likely another Halo sequel is released on Xbox 360 (spin-offs don't count) after Halo 3 and assuming the game is high quality, I don't think it is too far off to expect big sales for Halo 3.

I foresee a record-breaking, Halo2-like release followed by long-term and consistent sales like for Halo 1. The result is most likely to exceed whatever numbers Halo 1 or 2 achieved on their own.

 

[Safe Bet]

audience ? revenue

 

[RumFore]

Yeah I think one of the reasons Halo was so successful is because the advertisements started so long before it came out. Doesn't seem Halo 3 will get the same kind of advertisement. It will sell great but I doubt it will be insane as many think.

 

[jordan0386]

Yeah I think one of the reasons Halo was so successful is because the advertisements started so long before it came out. Doesn't seem Halo 3 will get the same kind of advertisement. It will sell great but I doubt it will be insane as many think.

Iphone ads didnt start until June 1st...I figure Sept. 1st for H3

 

[GhaleonEB]

Yeah I think one of the reasons Halo was so successful is because the advertisements started so long before it came out. Doesn't seem Halo 3 will get the same kind of advertisement. It will sell great but I doubt it will be insane as many think.

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2007/aug07/08-09Halo3PreordersPR.mspx

 

[Phoenix Down]

First day sales really dont mean shit.... sale over 10 million copies of halo 3 then talk shit


Long term sales>>short term

 

[GhaleonEB]

First day sales really dont mean shit.... sale over 10 million copies of halo 3 then talk shit


Long term sales>>short term

When you sell 2.4m units in one day - more than most games sell in their lifetime - it actually does mean shit. Though of course legs will help.

 

[beerbelly]

First day sales really dont mean shit.... sale over 10 million copies of halo 3 then talk shit


Long term sales>>short term

"Long term sales>>short term" :lol :lol :lol

Wow we've got a professor here teaching us that long term sales will always be greater than short term sales.

 

[Y2Kev]

I'm going big. 2.2 mil day 1, 4.5 mil end of year.

Not as big as Ghaleon, but still big.

8 mil EOL.

 

[Tieno]

First day sales really dont mean shit.... sale over 10 million copies of halo 3 then talk shit


Long term sales>>short term

More sales are better than less sales.