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Microsoft to spend $500M on Kinect Launch, "bigger than original Xbox launch"

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Cosmonaut X said:
It would also put them squarely where Microsoft positioned the 360 - they hit early and reaped the rewards.

They would need to be turning out something significantly beyond the Wii in power, and a decent enough leap over the PS3/360, coupled with a nice, dev-friendly architecture but it is doable for that timeframe. Microsoft and Sony won't be able to launch a competitor for a fair time, and when they do there's a limit on how much they can do to surpass what a hypothetical Wii2 would be doing, at least in terms of graphics (don't expect a Wii-PS3 size gap, for example).

Nintendo's biggest issue with launching that early is securing strong third party support (having dev-friendly hardware helps there if it means you get all the up-ports), producing strong internal software and turning out something that ticks all the "modern gaming" boxes (strong online setup etc.).

It's an opportunity - a big one - that Nintendo could piss away quite easily, but it is there for them if they can grab it.

While the idea is sound in theory, you have to remember that the vast majority of ps3/360 gamers are in it for the online multiplayer/social experience. Nintendo WILL fail to deliver on this front with their next system unless something in their management changes. This isn't even a question of if. Simply releasing a more powerful system but not delivering with the network side of things isn't going to steal away the Xbox and PS people.
 
marc^o^ said:
Kinect is strategic beyond the x360. Microsoft is relying on windows for much of its revenues, and windows will slowly die under attack of cloud and tablets. Kinect is a mean to make Microsoft's OS relevant again in a world that doesn't need it anymore. They will put Kinect navigation on their OS, from laptop to tablets.

From a consumer perspective, sure, I can see Windows having some competitors, mainly Google OS and Apple OS, but for Windows to die, there would need to be a new, secure OS that 95% of the Fortune 500 companies that currently use Windows are willing to go to. On top of that, there needs to be a compelling incentive for said companies to want to spend millions of dollars and go from Windows to this new OS, and I don't see that happening any time soon.
 
Do people, who believe Kinect is defined by Dance Central, expect casuals will differentiate it with Just Dance 2? Answer is no.
 
marc^o^ said:
Do people, who believe Kinect is defined by Dance Central, expect casuals will differentiate it with Just Dance 2? Answer is no.

I'm surprised MS hasn't hired you to make all their decisions for them.

You should also patent that crystal ball of yours and sell that shit. You'd make a mint.
 
2 Minutes Turkish said:
I'm surprised MS hasn't hired you to make all their decisions for them.

You should also patent that crystal ball of yours and sell that shit. You'd make a mint.
He makes a good point though

To a consumer, there's little incentive to run out and buy a game, a Kinect and maybe even a 360, when you can skip the latter 2 if you own a Wii and want a dancing game.
 
Dunlop said:
why?

MS went in the hole launching the XBOX
MS went in the hole with the RRoD fiasco
MS will go in the hole with Kinect

Yet their marketshare and "namebrand" keeps growing. They have stopped Sony from taking over your living room and are trying the same to nintendo.

Why do people write like MS/Sony/Nintendo do not have a fleet of analysts that are tasked exclusively to these type of situations?

because those analysts aren't experts like gaffers DUH!
 
canova said:
if your product is great, you don't need that much of an advertisement. If your product is shitty (see Vista), then no matter how you pimp it, it's gonna flop.

Whereas your first statement is nonsense (just think of all those games that GAF likes so much, and yet they didn't do that great commercially because of lack of marketing), I completely agree with the second part.

If Kinect really sucks, it will fail, no marketing budget will help make it a success story. If it does succeed, however, then it really is a quality product.
 
2 Minutes Turkish said:
I'm surprised MS hasn't hired you to make all their decisions for them.

You should also patent that crystal ball of yours and sell that shit. You'd make a mint.
I show you things with perspective. Not to mention the Michael Jackson game. It's a pretty crowded segment, not the best one to define Kinect.
 
TheOddOne said:
Steven Spielbergo? Yeah, dunno how I feel about this.


Latest NPD info says it sold 300k or something.

NPD covers USA only.

IMO, this solidifies MS not launching 720 till fall 2012 the earliest. Even if Kinect falls through, summer 2012 is the earliest I see the 720.
 
marc^o^ said:
Do people, who believe Kinect is defined by Dance Central, expect casuals will differentiate it with Just Dance 2? Answer is no.

Why did you, just ask for an opinion, and then provide, it?
 
marc^o^ said:
I show you things with perspective. Not to mention the Michael Jackson game. It's a pretty crowded segment, not the best one to define Kinect.

So what you're saying is:

- No one should ever again release a shooter
- No one should ever again release a Racing game
- No one should ever again release sports title

Basically no one should ever again release another game, because 'games' are such a crowded segment.

Maybe think before making statements for the sake of it, because it's 'trendy' to bash Kinect right now.
 
Sho_Nuff82 said:
In a world where dancing is only done with your hand(s), sure Just Dance 2 is an ample replacement for Dance Central.
That's my point, precisely my point. Some of you seem to believe Dance Central is the next big thing, because it allows you to dance with your full body! Hello people who missed the Just Dance phenomenon this past year, discover it on youtube now: everyone dance to the choregraphies, and most ignore it doesn't track your feet, or just don't care, because it's a party game.
 
Firewire said:
Don't believe the BS. If it sold so well, MS wouldn't have rolled out 7 so fast, they would have kept Vista around for years and milked it like crazy.
it sold well.

but they knew it could have been selling BETTER. Windows 7 is on that higher trajectory they wanted to see.
 
2 Minutes Turkish said:
So what you're saying is:

- No one should ever again release a shooter
- No one should ever again release a Racing game
- No one should ever again release sports title

Basically no one should ever again release another game, because 'games' are such a crowded segment.

Maybe think before making statements for the sake of it, because it's 'trendy' to bash Kinect right now.
No. But that was not the point, was it? I said Kinect would hardly be defined by Dance Central, the way Wii Sports defined the Wii, for the reasons I gave you.
 
Dreams-Visions said:
it sold well.

but they knew it could have been selling BETTER. Windows 7 is on that higher trajectory they wanted to see.

And that pretty much defines Vista as a failure in the eye's of MS, despite the sugar coated press releases.
 
Firewire said:
Don't believe the BS. If it sold so well, MS wouldn't have rolled out 7 so fast, they would have kept Vista around for years and milked it like crazy.
By "so fast" you mean 3 years? This isn't "fast", that's rather a norm. Vista was the only system that was released 5 years after its predecessor: Win95 was released in 1995, Win98 in 1998, WinME in 2000 and XP in 2001 (there was also Win98 SE and Win2000 somewhere in between).

Each time Microsoft releases a system a bunch of people buy it (and thus MS makes money). Supporting one system for several years doesn't give them money, selling a system does.

offshore said:

Perfect :lol
(but also, sadly true :()
 
2 Minutes Turkish said:
Was the Wii a success?

Dont' people keep buying software on the Wii despite most of the GAF hivemind believing there's no games for it?

Kinect WILL have shovelware that will be bought. But it will have good games too.

I mean, how many of us bought Guitar Hero/Rock Band/DJ Hero despite their peripherals only supporting a handful of titles.

Yet Kinect will not only support 50-100 titles over it's life, it will also control our consoles, and allow for other applications like videochat.

So it seems silly to actively avoid it, when many of us were MORE than happy to spend a similar amount of money on a far less useful accessory like a plastic guitar.
Yeah just like wii motion plus oh wait no WSR just sold a ton, dragged WM+ up with it, and nothing ever came of it .

Also what gaf hivemind?
 
PoliceCop said:
In a world where dancing is only done by staring at an on screen avatar in no way influenced by your actual movements...

The buttons on a Rock Band button highway don't press and collect the score for you either. Same gaming philosophy.
 
marc^o^ said:
No. But that was not the point, was it? I said Kinect would hardly be defined by Dance Central, the way Wii Sports defined the Wii, for the reasons I gave you.

Well Dance Central seems the logical choice.

It looks like a quality game, that couldn't be more suited to controller free gaming. Just Dance and MJ both need Wii remote/Move don't they? So you're actual dancing technique isn't being judged as such, but more your ability to tilt the controls the right way, or hold them the right way.

A genuine dance game seems like it could be a winner to me. But it's all speculative right now. But to say Dancing games is a 'crowded segment' seems...I can't even think of the word for it given almost every genre is technically crowded, excpet maybe platformers.
 
ghst said:
so, xbox faithful, which is the preference?:

i) kinect succeeds in opening up a freshwater channel of kids and girlfriends like microsoft could never believe, making rare the posterboy for what's going to happen to first party development.

ii) kinect bombs, investors lose all faith that they'll see the kind of profitability from xbox that they've come to expect from a big ticket like microsoft, who begin to rein in resources, leaving the future of the project in jeopardy.

A few years ago my answer probably would have been different, but looking at how horrible Mattrick's management of the Xbox division has been over the last few years, and with their prized developer Bungie going multiplatform now, I'm seriously at a loss for what exactly I (as a hardcore gamer) stand to benefit with Microsoft being in this industry anymore.

With bungie gone, they really only have Lionhead and Rare left as their prized studios, and neither I particularly care for. Gears of War would still live on since it's an Epic title, and I'm sure the talented portions of their other studios would find jobs elsewhere.

I would much rather see the Kinect experiment fail, and Microsoft invest elsewhere and simply leave the industry at this point. They're throwing an absolutely ridiculous amount of money on a complete failure of a technology that is severely limited in its gaming applications. That money could have probably been better spent towards beefing up their studios. Sure, the rewards aren't nearly as high as what they could be with Kinect, but the risk isn't nearly as bad either, and they'd further cement themselves in the minds of core gamers for why they need to own a 360. As it stands, Microsoft is basically telling core gamers that you need to buy the 360 for Xbox Live, and we'll let our third parties handle the rest; the remaining focus is now squarely on some nebulous audience that they've never had any hint of success going after. The Xbox division's management is clearly insane and infatuated with the success of the Wii at a time when the Wii's success is starting to significantly taper off. These executives don't have a clue, and I don't want this sort of leadership defining the next few years, or generations even, of gaming.
 
Redbeard said:
A few years ago my answer probably would have been different, but looking at how horrible Mattrick's management of the Xbox division has been over the last few years, and with their prized developer Bungie going multiplatform now, I'm seriously at a loss for what exactly I (as a hardcore gamer) stand to benefit with Microsoft being in this industry anymore.

With bungie gone, they really only have Lionhead and Rare left as their prized studios, and neither I particularly care for. Gears of War would still live on since it's an Epic title, and I'm sure the talented portions of their other studios would find jobs elsewhere.

I would much rather see the Kinect experiment fail, and Microsoft invest elsewhere and simply leave the industry at this point. They're throwing an absolutely ridiculous amount of money on a complete failure of a technology that is severely limited in its gaming applications. That money could have probably been better spent towards beefing up their studios. Sure, the rewards aren't nearly as high as what they could be with Kinect, but the risk isn't nearly as bad either, and they'd further cement themselves in the minds of core gamers for why they need to own a 360. As it stands, Microsoft is basically telling core gamers that you need to buy the 360 for Xbox Live, and we'll let our third parties handle the rest; the remaining focus is now squarely on some nebulous audience that they've never had any hint of success going after. The Xbox division's management is clearly insane and infatuated with the success of the Wii at a time when the Wii's success is starting to significantly taper off. These executives don't have a clue, and I don't want this sort of leadership defining the next few years, or generations even, of gaming.

You're not even subtle anymore.

So, what's your opinion on Move?
 
demosthenes said:
Nintendo has always had a problem of this. It's not going to change when you have the 2 clearly dominant 3rd party support machines still selling strong and growing their install base.

Looks like nintendo is tryiing to fix all that with the 3ds... lts wait and see how it develops.. if they can court 3rd parties ... Wii2 will be very interesting
 
No amount of marketing is going to get around the fact that Kinect by design requires far more physical effort on the part of the user than a normal game.

I see good sales at the start, but I highly doubt it's got any future as a platform. Its going to be too much like hard-work for most people.
 
With half a billion dollars being thrown down just for advertising, this is IMO a direct confirmation from Microsoft that Kinect is indeed their next generation hardware. No way they are spending this kind of money only to have a new console release in the next 3-5 years. Big mistake if you ask me. :|
 
BenjaminBirdie said:
The buttons on a Rock Band button highway don't press and collect the score for you either. Same gaming philosophy.

I don't know what you're trying to say, but I think I can parse it based on the examples you provided. My point was that his point was stupid. A close representation of actual dancing/guitar playing/djing/whatever has never been conducive to big sales. What people really want is the illusion of competence at skills people find sexy. In having little or no control over the on screen avatar, the average person just winds up looking stupid in real life because they lack the coordination and rhythm needed for even rudimentary dance moves.
 
TAS said:
With half a billion dollars being thrown down by Microsoft just for advertising, this is IMO a direct confirmation from Microsoft that Kinect is indeed their next generation hardware. No way they are spending this kind of money only to have a new console release in the next 3-5 years. Big mistake if you ask me. :|

well the mileage that it adds to the current gen lifecycle is going to be huge (or can be if it succeeds).

I'm personally ready for the next console cycle but it doesn't look like either of the big 2 will commit til oh, 2015?
 
PoliceCop said:
I don't know what you're trying to say, but I think I can parse it based on the examples you provided. My point was that his point was stupid. A close representation of actual dancing/guitar playing/djing/whatever has never been conducive to big sales. What people really want is the illusion of competence at skills people find sexy. In having little or no control over the on screen avatar, the average person just winds up looking stupid in real life because they lack the coordination and rhythm needed for even rudimentary dance moves.

Then they'll get a low score. That's all that's going on and being measured.
 
TAS said:
With half a billion dollars being thrown down by Microsoft just for advertising, this is IMO a direct confirmation from Microsoft that Kinect is indeed their next generation hardware. No way they are spending this kind of money only to have a new console release in the next 3-5 years. Big mistake if you ask me. :|


This is actually the silver lining of this whole exercise for me. No imminent new xbox point to no imminent new playstation. I like it because my ps3 has a fuck ton of work to do if it wants to be considered a worthy purchase.
$600
 
PopcornMegaphone said:
For a mainline windows release it was a huge flop. For the most part businesses refused to migrate to it. That's why MS created windows 7 quickly.

I will agree. If you don't bet the business/government sector to convert, then it's a failure. A huge software contractor just announced that they are concurrently developing software for both XP and windows 7 for my agency. Everyone's computer are going to be converted to Windows 7 boxes and not a single computer ever ran Windows Vista.
 
Jax said:
well the mileage that it adds to the current gen lifecycle is going to be huge (or can be if it succeeds).

I'm personally ready for the next console cycle but it doesn't look like either of the big 2 will commit til oh, 2015?

I think move and natal will fail because it seems like the whole waggle market is collapsing. Im sure it will enjoy some success with the current installed base.. but beyond that is hardly anything to get excited for
 
Jax said:
well the mileage that it adds to the current gen lifecycle is going to be huge (or can be if it succeeds).

I'm personally ready for the next console cycle but it doesn't look like either of the big 2 will commit til oh, 2015?
2012 for Nintendo's next console I think. At first I expected it earlier by the end of 2011 but with the 3DS being delayed till next year and no new reliable rumors or rumblings Nintendo will sit this one out for a while. They'll probably announce a releasedate for Zelda and re-introduce Wii Relax to the public fairly soon.

Not to mention that looking at Nintendo's own graphical showcases on 3DS(compared to Konami/Capcom) and their shitty online support they won't capture MS's core Xbox (Live) audience anytime soon.
 
just imagine the amount of traditional AAA games we could have, have Sony/Nintendo/MS not spent a single dime on all of these motion controllers

Fuck Nintendo for introducing this shit
 
Starchasing said:
I think move and natal will fail because it seems like the whole waggle market is collapsing. Im sure it will enjoy some success with the current installed base.. but beyond that is hardly anything to get excited for

Or they could both end up poaching a shitload of the Wii's current userbase looking to get the same experience in HD/with more power/DVD/Blu-ray ability?
 
canova said:
just imagine the amount of traditional AAA games we could have, have Sony/Nintendo/MS not spent a single dime on all of these motion controllers

Fuck Nintendo for introducing this shit

i was never a big fan of innovation either
 
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