Edmond Dantès
Dantès the White
The facts:
This is the factual and legal position going forward.
Nonetheless, what do you envisage? A thirty year break? Adaptations of the various sagas that formed the basis of much of Tolkien's mythos? Appendices material used as a basis for a narrative a la the Shadow of Mordor videogame?
On public domain:In terms of The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings, it depends entirely on Middle-earth enterprises, who own the rights. They have many licencees at the moment; WB are just one of them. Future TV series or re-adaptations would be contingent on what happens in the next few years with the two companies. Whether Middle-earth enterprises feel that WB are doing justice to the licence and of course the length of deal and any clauses permitting early termination from either of the parties to the deal.
The Tolkien Estate have no say on the matter regarding the two aforementioned I.Ps.
All other Tolkien works come under the banner of the Tolkien Estate. Once Christopher steps down or passes, either his sister Priscilla Tolkien or possibly his spouse Baillie Tolkien who is a member of the Estate. More likely though are Christopher's two sons and daughter; Adam, Simon and Rachel.
Simon is Christopher's first son from his first marriage. They had a falling out, but have since made amends. Adam has translated his grandfather's works into French and Rachel has shown interest in her grandfather's work. Adam is the most likely successor.
Future generations including Royd Tolkien, who has been an extra in the LOTR trilogy and recently involved in Air New Zealand's Middle-earth promotion, have shown greater willingness than Christopher as regards Tolkien's works. But, as of now, there's very little chance of them becoming literary executors of the Estate, if ever,
In conclusion, The Silmarillion etc; public domain is the most likely. The Hobbit and Lord of the Rings; depends entirely on what Middle-earth enterprises' future plans are.
Essentially, The Silmarillion will enter the public domain 70 years after Christopher's death. It's considered a work of joint authorship under section 10 (1) of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988:
Works of joint authorship
(1) In this Part a “work of joint authorship” means a work produced by the collaboration of two or more authors in which the contribution of each author is not distinct from that of the other author or authors.
Duration of copyright in literary, dramatic, musical or artistic works
(1)The following provisions have effect with respect to the duration of copyright in a literary, dramatic, musical or artistic work.
(2)Copyright expires at the end of the period of 70 years from the end of the calendar year in which the author dies, subject as follows.
Christopher is responsible for a number of chapters in The Silmarillion, and of course, there isn't really distinction between Christopher's prose or his father's, thus application of the aforementioned provision and precedents in case law, means The Silmarillion and The Children of Hurin are works of joint authorship.
Thus in accordance with sections 10 (1), and 12 (2) of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, The Silmarillion and The Children of Hurin will enter public domain many years after Christopher's death.
The Lord of the Rings and The Hobbit in 2043.
This is the factual and legal position going forward.
Nonetheless, what do you envisage? A thirty year break? Adaptations of the various sagas that formed the basis of much of Tolkien's mythos? Appendices material used as a basis for a narrative a la the Shadow of Mordor videogame?