They're already sweating and it will only get worse if Georgia is at all close.
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Montana US House Special Election Thread [GOP Hold]
- Thread starter Mr. RPG
- Start date
They're already sweating and it will only get worse if Georgia is at all close.
A Link to the Past
Banned
It hasn't been known for being a WoW term for a long time
If world wide right wing nationalism has taught us anything, polling errors aren't predictive in that way. Polling errors in one direction don't predict more in the same direction.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
How is he outperforming?
Only thing he is out performing as far as I know is Google Consumer Surveys, which was never a reliable poll.
Lord Frieza
Member
No, if they win, even by small margins, they'll know there won't be much concern outside the predicted competitive seats. Even if they will win by slim margins, they'll still win, even if they have to spend a little more than usual.
SpaceCadetKeon
Banned
If he can't control his anger in front of a reporter, just wait until he has to face his angry constituents at a town hall. :/
balladofwindfishes
Member
Out performing what? What polls? There was barely any polling at all for this race
PhoncipleBone
Banned
PPV SummerSlam
hodayathink
Member
Reading 538, one of the things they say is that Dems didn't win any of the special elections in before their 2006 wave, either. They outperformed in them, but didn't in anything outright.
Now to me, the interesting question is whether you think this was close enough to attempt to run Quist again in 2018,or do you try to find a better Democrat to run for the seat?
Yoshimitsu126
Member
Judging by the recent news they don't seem quite angry.
Lord Frieza
Member
I don't have the energy to go into this all again. So, okay
Just wanted to post this link below. Keeping the win for Gianforte below 10 and more likely at 6 is big in the long run.
https://twitter.com/cmclymer/status/867958932605550592
https://twitter.com/cmclymer/status/867958932605550592
I don't know why you're so committed to being cynical without reason.
If a very comfortable R seat becomes close, that's good. It's still good even if the R wins. The all or nothing view is silly. The number of seats more competitive than this one in Montana or that one in Georgia is substantial.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
You really think this guy will hold any town halls?
Lord Frieza
Member
What was the gerrymandering situation now vs then I wonder, though. At this point, I don't know if it matters who you run, doesn't look like a Dem is getting this seat. I mean, maybe the assault thing will make this guy damaged goods, but who knows anymore.
Well if they had any good sense they'd be sweating about Mueller's investigation, Trumps conduct, the health care bill the senate will send back to the house...etc.
Then again im not so sure they have any sense of whats going on around them, or maybe thats what they want people to think.
I call it playing Gowdy.
I'll give you Montana and Kansas but GA-06 is much closer to a swing district than those two. Ossoff is a much better candidate and there is a ton of money being pumped into that district. If there is truly a wave coming, GA-06 needs to be a win. That one can't be a moral victory.
You definitely try to find a better candidate. This was partially a candidate problem. According to 538, Quist underperformed his benchmarks by about 5 to 10 points across the board in the early vote.
SSPssp
Member
There is only 1 seat, so gerrymandering doesn't matter. Anyhow, pretty disappointing that this crap is now acceptable behavior.
Edit: Unless that 538 means ALL special elections in red states I guess?
Pretty much. A bunch of stupid fucks. I can't even anymore. It fucking disgusts me that this guy assaults someone and his voters applaud it. The GOP can go fuck itself. God damn they are some stupid self-righteous cunts.
Lord Frieza
Member
A win is a win. If they only win by slim margins in 2018 and 2020, they still win. Good for the future sure, but what the future looks like by the time they lose is another thing entirely
TestOfTide
Banned
No cringey would be how damn obvious it is that you came here from KiA.
Lord Frieza
Member
I was referring to every House seat in 2006 vs 2017.
SSPssp
Member
Ok, damn that's terrible.
BrutishMrFish
Member
I wasn't expecting Quist to win, but it's really despicable that Gianforte is doing better than expected. Here's to hoping Ossoff can pull through.
"How do you do fellow nerds"
"How do you do fellow nerds"
hodayathink
Member
Yeah, the Kansas and Montana districts went to Trump by double digits. GA-06 was much closer than that, which should mean a much better shot at winning, especially since they actually have a good candidate there.
I agree, just thought I throw it out there for discussion. I do think the whole incident damages Gianforte in 2018, but I don't think it's enough that it's 8 points worth of damage. A better candidate by itself makes up half, if not more of the deficit, and this plus whatever BS Trump pulls gives you the opportunity to make up the other half. If nothing else, this forces Repblicans in 2018 to stretch their money even thinner.
Is there truly an anti trump mood though? We have had two special elections which one is in a run off and this one plainly lost. I personally see a growing divide between urban and rural ideologies. I'm getting pretty tired of all these polls underestimating republican voters over and over.
TetraGenesis
Member
No use trying to spin this as a positive.
Justice was denied. Justice means nothing anymore. It never will again. This was just further proof that we have fucked society beyond repair.
Justice was denied. Justice means nothing anymore. It never will again. This was just further proof that we have fucked society beyond repair.
Spladam
Member
Big Nuts Mc Ass Kicker won!!! That will teach those miserable liberal elite lefty types be careful who they mess with.
Wow, defeatist much? This is a country that used to own humans as property, I don't think this is the bench mark for beyond repair and no justice. You're talking about a place that is four generations removed from the Wild West.
Wow, defeatist much? This is a country that used to own humans as property, I don't think this is the bench mark for beyond repair and no justice. You're talking about a place that is four generations removed from the Wild West.
DragoonKain
Neighbours from Hell
I wouldn't be surprised if admiration went up for him after the incident with many people instead of going down. The fact is a lot of people in this country have a very negative opinion toward the media, and I bet a large contingent of people were happy he did what he did.
Lord Frieza
Member
I actually think Hillary won that district by a small margin, which is the main reason a lot of hope surrounds it. If Dems lose there, it's going to possibly signal a very tight midterm for the House.
IrishNinja
Member
nah, it's herb talk
everyone disappointed in here should read this, for real
No, Trump won Georgia 6th by a small margin.
Tom Price won the seat by a significant margin.
titiklabingapat
Member
The pattern seems to be the GOP losing 5% to 8% from the other special election and tonight's results. We will see if this pattern holds in the GA one. At that point, we will have three data points from three very different district geographically speaking. That's trouble for the GOP.
That's not really true. According to 538:
"According to the weighted average of the past two presidential elections, there are 48 House districts that were won by GOP candidates in 2016 that are bluer than Georgia 6. The districts Round 1 results suggest Republicans could lose a good portion of those 48 seats. And Democrats need to win just 24 Republican-held seats for control of the House."
Using Hillary's performance as an indicator is a bad idea because she overpwrformed there by quite a bit.
Georgia 6 shouldn't be close, and if it is, Republicans are in trouble.
The races we're discussing aren't taking place in 2018 or 2020. This result is informing our expectations for those elections.
I don't know that you're understanding the reasoning here. These results are great because if dark red seats are consistently close, that is compelling evidence for democrats performing much better than they have in recent elections. Which means dozens of seats are competitive in 2018.
hydrophilic attack
Member
America you suck at voting lately
Dash_Riprock
Member
sweet jesus
on a +20 seat
This just makes me more pissed at the Dems. The party needs to adopt a 50-state strategy and stop focusing only on national elections.
VendettaRed07
Member
Good job dncsweet jesus
on a +20 seat
tearsintherain
Member
sweet jesus
on a +20 seat
That graph doesn't tell the whole story, its just what the SuperPACs spent. Quist raised and spent over $5m and Quist spent more than Gianforte.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powe...134a1c-4152-11e7-8c25-44d09ff5a4a8_story.html
In the first months of the race, Quist raised just $900,000 and appeared to be written off by Washington Democrats. Republicans attempted to define the candidate before he could go on the air, with the opposition research group America Rising paying a tracker to follow Quist, and the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC hiring a researcher to dig up damaging stories about the musician-turned-politician's tax problems. More than $5 million was spent by outside groups against Quist; Democrats responded with less than $1 million in positive spots.
”We knew that because Rob Quist was an unknown quantity with voters, we had the ability to define him negatively out of the gates," said America Rising chief executive Colin Reed.
But after the March failure of the first version of the AHCA, Quist's fundraising surged, adding up to more than $5 million by the final pre-election report — outmatching Gianforte, whom Republicans had hoped would self-fund his campaign.
Do you know what the DNC is?
TestOfTide
Banned
why? the antiQuist ads would include a lot of superPACs that do nothing but focus on attacking the opponents.
Boom there it is. Gianforte was boosted by SuperPACs that Dems had no hopes of outspending.
Lord Frieza
Member
Yes, I am aware I don't live in the future
I 100% understand the reasoning here, and I hope they translate to wins when those times come for sure. I'm just saying, if it just continues to translate to slim wins, it's still their win. Good for the future, but tomorrow needs to come today
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