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MS CFO: Manufacture of Xbox Consoles may slow down or stop...
- Thread starter Miles Quaritch
- Start date
Ah, that's the impression I had. It also reduced the power of the cloud, according to another thread.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Seems to have done pretty well in the UK, which is where I'm assuming Riky is from based on his other posts.
I guess the upside to halting production would be a chance to revisit the design choices that have somewhat hamstrung the product. Not a change of the hardware specs, but a reconfiguring of the package in time for an E3 unveil.
Having unsold inventory sit in warehouses sure does eat up those margins.
Having unsold inventory sit in warehouses sure does eat up those margins.
Nightengale
Member
Titanfall obviously had a major impact, but it definitely seems like it won't have a sustained/prolonged impact.
Which is kind of what it really needs at the moment, given that the next 3 months are kind of 'silence' as far as Xbox exclusives and marketing affiliated big titles are concerned.
Which is kind of what it really needs at the moment, given that the next 3 months are kind of 'silence' as far as Xbox exclusives and marketing affiliated big titles are concerned.
Oh, the game is selling well, don't get me wrong. That tends to happen for games bundled "for free".
It is far from the system seller some people were expecting, though. It did fuck all in the US, MS's strongest territory. In the UK it first came with a £30 price cut, and is now sold by multiple retailers at £349. That's £80 less than the original price of the console. A ~20% price cut.
When retailers slash the price like this, it's never a good sign.
Miles Quaritch
Member
If it being 'free' with the X1 is selling consoles, sounds like a system seller to me. Perhaps, as you said, not the system seller people were expecting in that it helps to close the gap between the PS4 and X1 (that was always rather a silly and misguided expectation to have), but it could be selling consoles that might otherwise not have been sold.
It's much more likely the price cut war will have had a much bigger impact on sales than TF being 'free' with the console though. It's a nice value add alongside a a steep price drop.
shinra-bansho
Member
It had an effect in the US, whether that effect was as big as people, Microsoft included, expected is another matter.
System's were down 20-60% on a weekly basis, outside of the PS4 and XBO, which is normal since March is typically a weaker NPD month than February.
Titanfall and the retailer discounts meant the XBO was essentially flat on a per/week basis instead of down. If it saw a "normal" February to March transition it would have probably sold around 250K.
(Pent-up demand for the PS4 and it finally being in better supply meant the PS4 was up 10%.)
System's were down 20-60% on a weekly basis, outside of the PS4 and XBO, which is normal since March is typically a weaker NPD month than February.
Titanfall and the retailer discounts meant the XBO was essentially flat on a per/week basis instead of down. If it saw a "normal" February to March transition it would have probably sold around 250K.
(Pent-up demand for the PS4 and it finally being in better supply meant the PS4 was up 10%.)
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
heh, first dish to be served when MLB14 does gangbusters in the US, quickly followed by Watchdogs which is going to be huge among the more casual gamer.
I apologise if he is, from all of our countrymen, women and dogs. I will call security and have him removed.
Graphics Horse
Member
Why are you implying that the bundling is why it sold well?
People put the poor xbone numbers in January npd down to xbox buyers being more sensitive to cold weather than ps4 buyers or something, I think we'll have to see next month if that was the case or if it was people buying xbones in Feb for the Titanfall beta.
I was talking about the game selling (charting) well, and the first explanation for this is that it's bundled with the console, for the same price than the stand alone SKU. People aren't going to buy the latter when they can have an extra game for the same price.
There's no way from this to deduce that it's a system seller, especially when there was no big spike in HW sales from what we know. It didn't in the US. It doesn't seem like it did in the UK. And you can't separate TF's potential effect on HW sales from a major price cut.
So with the few data we have, there is really no reason to believe that TF had any sort of impact on HW sales.
Well again, it's rather weird to attribute the Jan > Feb HW sales increase to TF's beta, since January is always a slow month. When the game actually released in March, there was no HW bump whatsoever.
In the PAL threads people were also attributing a minor HW bump for the XB1 to TF. Then it turned out the PS4 had a fairly similar increase in sales that week as well. So if the only conclusion is that TF drove the sales, you might as well deduce that the PS4 bump came from people who saw TF, thought it was crap and decided to buy a PS4 instead or something. It's as much valid.
Graphics Horse
Member
We're well aware why the ps4 had a bump, it's because they were generous enough to actually send some to the uk.
Well yeah, because that's a fairly reasonable conclusion, based on facts which make perfect sense, and outside other potential parameters which traditionally have an impact on HW sales. The PS4 didin't have a price cut or a major game release in this particular case, for instance.
The whole "TF had an impact" is just some sort of confirmation bias based on some selected parameters, while completely ignoring others. It would be a much more reasonable conclusion if weekly sales in the US saw a significant increase in March following the game's release (it didn't), and if all other parameters such as price cuts and regular overall sales increase due to the time of the year had not been present (but they were).
Graphics Horse
Member
I expect a significant drop in sales over the next few months, I assume you do not.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Isn't that the crux of your argument with TF selling well? You claim it selling well tends to happens when it's bundled 'free' and yet you then go on to suggest that it hasn't had any sort of impact on hardware sales.
You can't have one without the other. It's either selling well because it's 'free' and by being bundled 'free', that means hardware is selling well or it's selling well in spite of being bundled.
shinra-bansho
Member
Again, you're ignoring the context - weekly sales typically decrease in March. February is a stronger NPD month; historically more systems are sold in February than March despite the extra week of sales in the latter. Other systems averaged a m/m weekly sales decline of ~40%, vs the 4% of the XBO.
That indicates some manner of hardware impact.
Riky
$MSFT
Yeah I am, I don't understand this "free" argument either, it is "free" in the sense you had to find £349 to play it, so not really "free" at all. I would say the X1 sales figures may have been a lot worse without the bundle. Either way we can see the game had a massive attach rate from NPD, so it has had some sort of impact and it pushed X1 sales ahead of PS4 in the UK for a while.
I thought it through totally actually, I don't think any of that stuff will have anywhere near the impact of Uncharted 4 or The Last Of US 2 would have in hardware sales, stuff like the exclusive content in Watch Dogs and Destiny will make multiformat owners like myself choose the PS4 versions but I doubt many people buy a console for a small piece of exclusive DLC.
shinra-bansho
Member
MLB The Show has a relatively stable core audience. How quickly that migrates is a question perhaps, but the second outing sold ~200K.
Co-marketing arrangements also have impact c.f. Assassin's Creed and NBA 2K next gen platform split and CoD next gen platform split.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Doesn't the bundles only account for roughly 200-300k of it's over a million NPD launch month sales and isn't it stand alone the best selling game n the UK for 2014 pretty much.
The game sold sell considering the install base not sure why someone would argue otherwise. It's just didn't push all that many XB1 really.
Not really because it's Summer.
You don't think the fact the xb1 use to be 429 pounds with no game is now 349 pounds with game has a little bit more to do with xb1 sales increasing. Titanfall did have an impact though it was just spread out since launch. This is confirmed by the huge tie ratio despite the lack of a large hardware spike.
Any way on topic is it possible that Foxconn could shift some of their capacity to making Ps4s because while they were plentiful in March they are disappearing again in my area this month. In the midwest of the US.
What? No. Unless you're assuming people are buying XB1 because of TF. Since there is no indication whatsoever that the release of TF led to a significant increase in HW sales, that's fairly unlikely. Especially when TF wasn't the only factor, there were also price cuts.
Conversely, when XB1 HW sales are fairly stable and at some point people have the option to get an SKU for the same price including TF, they're going to buy that, and thus the game charts well.
It's completely independent, and doesn't prove that TF is a system seller. If it were, we'd have seen a clear effect on HW sales. Unless the new definition of a system seller is that following the game's release, HW sales didn't drop like crazy, I guess. That would seem like lowering the bar though.
OK. Well, apart from the PS4 which slightly increased its weekly sales. So ISS is a big system seller now too? I personally really don't think so, but it must be by that logic.
People who buy an XBO end up with Titanfall whether they wanted that game or not. Nobody is going to buy the green box with no game selling at the same price as the Titanfall bundle. Therefore the entire argument about demand for that game is tainted and unable to be reconciled. So it's a pointless discussion really. The only interesting data is that a reduction in price and a bundling of the Titanfall game caused LESS systems to be sold each week than the prior month when it was $500 with no game. That's a huge surprise to a lot of people I think.
shinra-bansho
Member
As already mentioned above pent-up demand for the PS4 also meant it didn't see a typical Feb-> Mar transition, given the supply constraint through Jan and Feb released in Mar due to more plentiful availability. Infamous probably also helped.
(It also didn't see a typical Jan-> Feb transition as all other systems were up, while it was flat.)
(It also didn't see a typical Jan-> Feb transition as all other systems were up, while it was flat.)
Yes it did. It pushed quite a few of all Xboxes sold in November, December, January, and February. People bought the system in the months leading up to Titanfall because of anticipation for Titanfall. It was a system seller, just not a system seller post release which was the surprise part of the data.
The people who say Titanfall as a system seller had already purchased an Xbox prior to March.
Disaster Nebraska
Banned
Don't be too sure. Being seen as the "superior version" contributed to CoD (for example) selling 30-50% more on 360 compared to PS3.
You're right. Most people don't buy a console for a small piece of DLC, just like they don't buy a console just because of how the thumbsticks feel or because of how many different video-streaming services it boasts. But it plays a role. Being seen as the superior multiplat console basically kept the 360 alive in 2009 onward: despite exclusives continuing to decline, people still went to the 360 for their multiplat fix because it had the reputation of being "the best".
Nightengale
Member
8The situation from Jan->March is something that's hard to realistically quantify, anyway.
TF was undoubtedly a big title that sold XB1s. But it was also in a weird position where it got so much early pre-release hype that consoles were probably sold months in advance for TF. Unless we have an alternative universe observer that can tell us how much XB1 would had sold if it didn't have TF as an exclusive, it's difficult to know how much TF contributed to the trajectory.
And then PS4 had a major Feb launch in Japan that really made a err in the guesstimates of how much it would had sold had regular stock been available. And then MS muddied March up through discounts, bundling, price adjustments, etc. Suddenly, what was a situation where one game could be the judgemental piece of 'oh, this game increased sales by X%' became a 'oh, this game, and bundles, and further discounts were the reasons combined.'
TF was undoubtedly a big title that sold XB1s. But it was also in a weird position where it got so much early pre-release hype that consoles were probably sold months in advance for TF. Unless we have an alternative universe observer that can tell us how much XB1 would had sold if it didn't have TF as an exclusive, it's difficult to know how much TF contributed to the trajectory.
And then PS4 had a major Feb launch in Japan that really made a err in the guesstimates of how much it would had sold had regular stock been available. And then MS muddied March up through discounts, bundling, price adjustments, etc. Suddenly, what was a situation where one game could be the judgemental piece of 'oh, this game increased sales by X%' became a 'oh, this game, and bundles, and further discounts were the reasons combined.'
Hawk269
Member
How about the Forza Bundles? Are you just ignoring that they exist to prove a point? The Forza bundles came out the same day as the Titanfall Bundle so people would have a choice. To say people buying a system are getting Titanfall whether they like it or not is incorrect.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Oooh....oooohh. The stupid in this comment has got me fuming. Only your Saturn avatar is saving you from my wrath.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
I was talking in comparison to MS expectations rather than in general.
Manmademan
Member
Sony doesn't need "the rest of the world" to care, they already have the EU (including the UK) and Japan on lockdown.
It's the US that's their biggest concern because the US is the only region where MS is competitive right now, and the US is what cares about baseball. MLB:The Show on PS4 has the unusual distinction of being not only being a PS4 exclusive, it's literally the ONLY baseball franchise that exists anymore since the 2K series is dead, and being a gorgeous game that's critically well received won't hurt it.
Pretending this isn't a big deal when Baseball as a sport is more popular than anything in the US that's not the NFL is hilariously short sighted.
LOL, really? Huge advertising for these games will most likely move a ton of more PS4's than you think, regardless of the games either being ports or games coming out to Xbox One.
Hardcore gamers may already know about these things, but not average consumers.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Baaha at Japan on lockdown unless it's a race to see who bombs the most.
gundamkyoukai
Member
PS4 will sell more in Japan than X1 will in most parts of EU ( tier 1 or tier 2 countries ) so yes the numbers do matter .
Principate
Saint Titanfall
PS4 is heading towards less than 10k a week, and is likely stay there for a while. For reference that's Vita level of bombing,
gundamkyoukai
Member
I know the numbers and that is what X1 doing in certain parts of EU and will do less in Japan .
Point is it's still a country that going to give Ps4 extra sales over X1 the question is how much in the long run .
Any next-gen only game that releases in Japan will go 90-96% PS4.
Barkley's Justice
Member
This thread
Principate
Saint Titanfall
An extra country is a misnomer it's very small amount of any consoles ltd. If it sold 50 units in some country that could also be worth a country worth of it sales, it still means it bombed horribly and counts very little in the consoles sales.
With again not particularly impressive sales. Again are you aware the PS3 has exactly 1 maybe 2 1 million sellers over the entirety of the PS3 lifetime. It's console industry is not an industry that moves high volumes of software. It lives of the back of Japanese mid tiers and until they arrive if they arrive it's not making much of a difference.
The Japanese Traditional games industry as whole is being enveloped by mobile, it just seems kind of naïve to expect much from the PS4 there
gundamkyoukai
Member
I am trying to understand your point are you saying Japan don't matter because PS4 is selling badly there ?
If so X1 don't matter in any where outside the UK and USA ( which i guess is what people always saying any way )
Japan is going Mobile but PS4 will sell more in Japan than X1 will in most countries it's stupid to say they don't matter .
PS4 has already sold more in Japan than X1 has in Spain , Germany and France combine if go by the last sales numbers we have .
Nightengale
Member
In the broad context, Japan's LTD is 8% of PS4's total install base. PS3 LTD in Japan amount to 12% of total PS3 sales in Japan.
It's true that Japan's console market looks to be apathetic and perform dismally for the rest of the year, but realistically, we're still looking at a market that can deliver >3 million consoles through its life-cycle, which is more than a lot of other countries.
If PS4 maintains its current trend of sales trajectory, we're looking at 900k FY2015 for PS4 in Japan, with a WW sales of 16 million, which comes to about 6%. And realistically, it's perfectly fair to say that Japan is at least one-year behind when it comes to adoption of current-gen anyway, so the current ratio contribution by Japan should shift upwards come 2015. (Besides, it's practically impossible for PS4 to maintain its a million consoles a month till year end)
Japan is definitely doing poorly, but it's still a substantial console market.
Cat in the Hat
Member
This is so fucking bad, dear lord! We get it guys, you don't like the Xbox.
Eh, Playstation 4's have been fairly plentiful in most brick and mortar stores I've been to over the last few weeks or so.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
I'm saying to person that said Japan is on lockdown, I'm saying Japan is the furthest thing possible from lock down because even if it massively outsells the XB1 if the PS4 sells like crap it's meaningless if it doesn't significantly affect the PS4 LTD.
I'm not saying Japan is and forever will be irrelevant I'm saying as long as the sales situation doesn't change it won't be a significant or even much of a slight differentiator. These companies will obviously be looking to improve the areas they're weak in but lets not pretend Japan is some big advantage the PS4 has over the XB1 at least not yet anyway.
Again keep in mind even the X360 sold over a million close to 2 million there. Compare those numbers. big difference certainly not....
Are you saying Forza was a system seller in March just to prove a point? Where were these Forza bundles in the US? Wasn't that just one territory where it even existed?
Nightengale
Member
Sorry, what am I to compare the 360 numbers with?
gundamkyoukai
Member
And i am saying it is significant at least compare to what MS selling else where .
PS4 has already sold more in Japan than X1 has in Spain , Germany and France combine if we go by the latest sales numbers we have .
Saying that it irrelevant even if sales bad compare to PS4 else where make no sense cause MS would love those sales .
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
It definitely is, and from a game development perspective two to three million is a good base of consoles for them to work from. This gen is hopefully going to get the Japanese 'indie' market to have a greater influence, with the ease of development and publishing of games, so we stand a chance of a gen8 Katamari-like explosion of smaller, Japanese-created games.
The biggest reason Japanese gamers even bought a Xbox 360 to begin with, was Tales of Vesperia, because they thought that it was a Xbox 360 exclusive.
Later on, the game got ported to PS3 with extra content, & Japanese gamers were furious because they wasted their hard-earned money on Xbox 360 believing that the game was 360 exclusive.