well yeah. the big mystery is going to be finding out why the monthly sales are so low. unlike the ps4, the xbox one has had a lot more energy put towards it with more marketing and just effort to make people aware of it. it doesn't seem like a whole lot has helped so far.
I think it's pretty obvious that general market perception for a while has been:
- XB1 - weaker, more expensive, bad policies (doesn't matter they're gone the market perception lingers on) and anti-consumer aspects (Kinect always on, spying, etc. - again long gone but doesn't matter the market perception lingers on) and (perhaps most damning) worse versions of games
- PS4 - cheaper, more powerful, great policies, free games, pro consumer and better versions of games
I believe that price and better version of big third party franchises outweighs exclusives for the average consumer - i.e. the 70 million or so who buy a 360 but don't buy Halo or the similar 70 million or so who buy PS3 but don't buy GT - so for me it's pretty clear that after the initial launch high (when XB1 probably saw two million sales from people who'd have bought it no matter what and PS4 probably saw the same thing) the sales for PS4 would be way stronger vs XB1 when more average consumer starts to pick up the slack from the initial launch peak.
At this point I don't see XB1 WW getting near PS4 and in US/UK it desperately needs more games that are almost at parity, more exclusives (because they do help of course) and a better price point. The issue is clearing a poor market perception takes ages vs how quickly you can foul up market perception and of course the longer time goes on with PS4 selling more the higher the mountain MS has to climb with the XB1.
I reckon XB1 sales will be acceptable LTD but at this point I can easily see it selling less WW than 360 and only drawing or taking a narrow lead in US (best case) and coming close second in UK (best case) unless MS manage a drastic shift in market perception of their console.
Hence despite all MS current efforts I don't expect any big swings anytime soon from an average weekly sales perspective. Of course 360 did sell better in US holiday period and PS3 sold bit better (ratio wise) during rest of year so it may be if MS can continue to work at easing the negative aspects of market perception they could see a decent holiday 2014 in US and build on that further in 2015.
The Halo collection will help I think and TBH if I was them I'd throw money at getting a great Gears collection out too - they need to try and lure as much of the 10 million or so Halo base and 5 million or so Gears base to XB1 as possible (there will likely be a lot of overlap between the two of course). Reviving old popular franchises is also key and E3 showed they understand that.
But right now despite the strong launch I see XB1 struggling due to poor market perception of the console vs the great market perception of PS4. I guess people can argue the toss on whether either is deserved but it doesn't really mater - if you want to sell a lot of a consumer device like a console you
have to have good market perception for your product and MS frankly just doesn't have that right now.
Being blunt and crude they shit the bed with the reveal and are still dealing with the market reaction to the stink (again they still had a great launch because the small hardcore didn't care).