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National CNN/ORC poll released: Trump Supernova
- Thread starter PBY
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Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
Tell that to Jeb's campaign chances.
QuiteWhittle
Member
I was thinking about something while driving around yesterday. If (when) he wins the nomination, and if he does indeed go on to lose the general election, what becomes of his VP choice? Do you guys feel that whoever he picks will essentially be blacklisted when it comes to mainstream politics just out of spite for them joining up with Trump and then losing?
I still can't help but to feel sorry for Jeb Bush. I saw him on a show last night, I think even on Fox News, and they were just being rough on him, in a kind sort of way. He is trying to stay so positive that it's almost "cute", in the same way where you know a kid isn't going to be a huge success at this or that and really has no chance, but yet there they go trying all they can to stay positive and "believe".
I still can't help but to feel sorry for Jeb Bush. I saw him on a show last night, I think even on Fox News, and they were just being rough on him, in a kind sort of way. He is trying to stay so positive that it's almost "cute", in the same way where you know a kid isn't going to be a huge success at this or that and really has no chance, but yet there they go trying all they can to stay positive and "believe".
if its Cruz it doesn't matter
Well true, if he picks Cruz then it wont matter because he isn't really accepted in the first place. I almost think Trump will try to go for someone a bit more on the inside though to try to pander to those who are hesitant to really get behind him. I have no clue who that could be though.
He should pick Bush. Ultimate troll job.
John Dunbar
correct about everything
so has anyone who has dominated polling like this ever went on to lose the primaries?
Someone else more informed should address this, but I think this is totally unprecedented given his favorability ratings and # of endorsements.
Calamari41
41 > 38
The man is just not a good public speaker. Or, at least, he's not playing to whatever strengths he may have on that front. He's trying for these fiery sermon type things, and he just can't pull it off.
I've set it before and I'll reiterate it...It's looking more and more like Trump is a black swan. Combine a black swan with a "perfect storm" and I wouldn't be so quick to discount Trump in the general. (Perfect storm, meaning certain events and perceptions that feed the fear machine...)
I'm one of those who in the past mentioned I was looking to vote either Sanders or Trump (less of a Trump fan at the moment). Consider my self independent but have always voted democrat. Not a huge fan of Hillary...but will see what happens at debate time in the general (if she wins)...
I'm one of those who in the past mentioned I was looking to vote either Sanders or Trump (less of a Trump fan at the moment). Consider my self independent but have always voted democrat. Not a huge fan of Hillary...but will see what happens at debate time in the general (if she wins)...
Veritigo_X
Member
I'll never understand this. You couldn't find two more different candidates on literally every single issue.
What do you like about each candidate?
Neither is Hillary?
Roberto Larcos
Member
teruterubozu
Member
He'll probably pick Carly Fiorina as an attempt to garner the female vote since he'll be up against Hillary. He would be stupid not to.
j_k_redtail
Member
Honesty, I don't see one.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Sanders victory in Democrat primaries and a terrorist attack on US soil should just about do it.
My eyesight is not doing so well right now. I read your post as:
Yellowtail
Member
Hillary Clinton 2008.
At this point Trump's surpassed Giuliani and Dean analogies.
Orbis Tabula
Member
teruterubozu
Member
I've encountered 4 people planning to vote for Trump, and each of them is doing so because they want to sabotage the country or specific parties.
Then there are the "I'm voting for him because he's honest about being evil!" people.
With the news confirming that the recent terrorists having pledged allegiance (well, the wife at least, but they are one in the same as far as I'm concerned now) to ISIS as the attacks were actually taking place, I'd be willing to bet actual money on Trump now having the nomination in the bag.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Veritigo_X
Member
If you do find one that meets his requirements he'll just say "it's too early and the voters haven't decided." I don't know why he just doesn't say that for every poll.
teruterubozu
Member
I can see people rallying around Trump just to make Nate Silver eat crow. Conservatives would be giddy.
Calamari41
41 > 38
At this rate, I expect "well see, if you unskew these polls..." to start making an appearance soon.
Butts-a-plenty
Banned
Orbis Tabula
Member
Iowa likely voters.
Awwsome. Thanks for the info. I had no idea Carson was still doing so hot. I thought he'd flamed out. But I guess that's Iowa for you!
gutter_trash
Banned
Yup, I agree about New Hampshire. NH is more old school when it comes to Rinos.
lets see how the Rinos hold up against the Rogue Reality TV Star
DonasaurusRex
Online Ho Champ
when does he get a Super Saiyan .gif?
Being a professional statistician would make for a hilarious arc to my life, :lol
gutter_trash
Banned
Yup. That's about the closest.
One big difference this time is the mood of the respective electorates. In 2008, Democrats still had respect for their party's leadership, so that factor didn't largely influence primary voters' choices.
In this cycle, the mood of Republican voters is significantly different. They see 2012 as an election that was eminently winnable - one that was lost under the guidance of incompetent party consultants, leaders, strategists, etc. They see the conservative legislative achievements (or lack thereof) from the 2010 and 2014 elections as a mixture of betrayal and incompetence. They loathe their party's leadership - leadership who directed its candidates to run on a very specific, strong platform of Conservative Causes X, Y, Z, etc.. - so when party officials, GOP-leaning pundits, elected leaders, etc predict doom that comes with a Trump nomination.. their voters don't give those warnings much credence, as the warnings are coming from entities with no credibility on the topic of "Winning."
Trump sensed this mood and seized on it brilliantly. Whenever someone attacks him, the GOP's voters now see these attacks and wonder, "why should we trust you? You let Obama walk all over us, you lost 2012, and you have no credibility." In the modern era, we haven't seen anything quite like this.
Two spectacular business failures who never held office, running solely on their business bonafides What a pairing.
Veritigo_X
Member
He does. I just think it's funny he's dismisses this poll for particular reasons when he actually dismisses every poll out now for different reasons.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Yeah, kind of weird.
gutter_trash
Banned
Obama is no outside independent, he was groomed since his 2004 keynote address as rising star and he was loyal to the Health Insurance companies and his Goldman Sachs overloads
Obama was not some off shoot rogue candidate, Obama was an establishment candidate and loyal to the party.
Bernie Sanders is the anti-Obama. No comparison.
Orbis Tabula
Member
I don't think the poster said anything to the contrary. I believe they were drawing parallels between Rubio and Obama, pointing out that it would be hypocritical for the GOP establishment to back Rubio given the concerns they had about Obama.
Which is true, but then, politicians are hypocrites, so it's expected.
Fluffhead14
Member
Bookmarking this. lol.
gutter_trash
Banned
Jeb!'s crash and burning will force them to rally behind Rubio who has better numbers, yup that's true.
But Jeb is sticking with it until the very end, his competitiveness of wanting to be better than his brother will drive him to not quit.
Please do. The only way that Trump doesn't secure the nomination is if he does something so outlandishly stupid that it kills all of his support, or if he is somehow in the middle of a big scandal that is uncovered. None of the other candidates are going to change or do anything different to be able to defeat him at this point.
I completely think it's possible he doesn't win it, but it is his nomination to lose, period.
I don't understand how some of you continue to not know what 538 is saying despite the fact they write all of it down and you can read it over and over.
The central thesis is that polling at this stage is generally not predictive and means little compared to the attention it's being given. When specific polls come out, they're addressed and it's described why it, again specifically, is not predictive. It isn't a dichotomy. All of these polls are mostly meaningless for a variety of reasons, and this one is meaningless because of reasons a, b and c.
The central thesis is that polling at this stage is generally not predictive and means little compared to the attention it's being given. When specific polls come out, they're addressed and it's described why it, again specifically, is not predictive. It isn't a dichotomy. All of these polls are mostly meaningless for a variety of reasons, and this one is meaningless because of reasons a, b and c.
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