Mr. Blonde
Member
Theres conflicting opinions on this and that is with markets being at an all time high. Calling him a failed businessman is laughable though.
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National CNN/ORC poll released: Trump Supernova
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Syph Medwes
Member
Nate is the man
Starting to think Trump may have a bit more staying power than he's given credit by people who actually know what they're talking about (aka 95% of GAF) but I agree with his underlying point that it's still too far out. Hoping for Rubio 2016 but who knows what will happen. Still think a hidden gamechanger if Trump were to gain the nomination is his VP choice. If he picks Cruz and goes full Tea Party then I don't think he'll be electable but if he goes with someone like Fiorina things would get really interesting.
Then again who knows what the narratives will be in a couple months. A great point Mr. Silver made a week or so ago (week ago week ago) is that at this (that) point 2 cycles ago, the recession hadn't occurred.
Should be an eventful few months!
Elfforkusu
Member
I really think he has a shot against Hillary. And that bugs me, because the Dems think Hillary is preordained. It might happen.
off duty ninja
Member
I personally won't vote for Hilary because I don't want another Clinton in the White House. If she wins it would mean that in the last 25-26 years a Bush or Clinton has been in office for 19+ of them. That sickens me. Like these are royal families or something. We need NEW blood.
It won't. Trump has insulted literally every single demographic in the country, except for old white men. He has no path to victory in the general.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Having a wife (who has been in public office for a very long while and has the credential to be a president) is far different from having a father and son (plus another possible son) be president in a close timespan.
Veritigo_X
Member
Other than the people advocating for accelerationism, this is probably the dumbest reason not to vote for Clinton I've heard.
This is just reverse monarchism.
off duty ninja
Member
Agreed, but it is just creepy to me.
I will have to look up what accelerationism is but I am not a politcal party member and do not vote on party lines. I realize that sadly this just helps put the people in place I don't support but I can't bring myself to do it. I also have a bit of "tinfoil hat" syndrome and don't really think that my vote even matters to begin with but since I do vote I will vote my conscience.
lol. Or some weird hybrid monarchy. Or maybe the White House is like the Iron Throne and House Clinton and House Bush have been duking it out for control over us for a quarter of a century now.
Absolutely.
Who cares about silly little things like, y'know, policy? Let's vote based on the names!
I hear O'Malley is promising to get us ice cream bars into the school's cafeteria vending machines. That would be, like, soooo fetch!
off duty ninja
Member
Get out of here with your condescension. That is why I am voting for Sanders. Not sure what I will do yet if he doesn't get the nom.
Hey, I'm calling it like I see it.
If you have a substantive response not based on emotion on the topic, I'm all ears. The "logic" of voting based on a name strikes me as incredibly weak.
gutter_trash
Banned
good luck with more new Justices like Scalia, Alito and Thomas appointed when Ginsberg retires
RustyNails
Member
This is psychotic. Say, is it possible for you to judge candidates based on their platforms? It's inevitable that democracies and republics start to form political families. Start thinking like an adult and less of a "dynasties suxxx so im not voting lol". We still have a Kennedy in the federal office you know.
lastplayed
Member
Karl Rove imploded on the day of the election. Nate Silver is too smart for that.
off duty ninja
Member
I am thinking like an adult. At least I hope so. It is always possible I could end up voting for Hilary when the time comes. It is funny to me how many people take my opinion and take it as far toward hyperbole as possible though.
I may not be able to articulate my opinions as well as some on here but I am a 38 y/o ARMY vet. I guess I don't appreciate being talked to like a child.
Bernie's policy ideals get put on ice for a generation if the court's lean is renewed; we can elect Bernie clone after Bernie clone after this cycle, but the policy achievements of 2020 Bernie, 2024 Bernie, 2028 Bernie, etc.. would be haunted by the judiciary.
I completely understand the idea of supporting whomever one wants during a primary. That's great, and I get the appeal. But I'm also continually perplexed at how unconcerned some otherwise-passionate folks are about the long-term stakes. Is this election about policy or personality?
off duty ninja
Member
Sorry for snapping at you but I do think it was a little ridiculous how far off you took my opinion. It isn't about names. It is about the people having less and less choice in government. Thus having less and less control over their country.
I think the 2 party system is a wreck and both parties play a part in that. The red vs blue, us vs them mentality in everything has stagnated us.
I think FDR and a potential RFK presidency make a decent case for voting for a candidate in spite of their last name having been in the White House before.
Hillary is a lot of people's choice for president though.
Plasticine
Member
But what if the new blood is infected with Ebola?
My tone was a bit overboard, too, so I apologize.
I wish we had more choices, both within each party's primary and among the parties on the general ballot. If there were two or more viable, sane parties to choose from, we'd probably in better shape. And more people would probably feel able to participate meaningfully.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I'm getting a bit tired of the "It's too early to tell" meme.
The voting starts in less then 60 days.
Is it still going to be too early the first week of January?
I understood the narrative/idea in July and August. But shit, it's December!
The voting starts in less then 60 days.
Is it still going to be too early the first week of January?
I understood the narrative/idea in July and August. But shit, it's December!
off duty ninja
Member
And I support people's right to make that choice. It just isn't mine. At least not at this point. In the end I probably would vote for her to avoid something catastrophic like Trump. If he wins then it is already too late for us.
It's based on precedent and the polls' track record as far as correlating to the final nomination outcome. They aren't that good at showing who people are actually going to vote for in a primary.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Are they basing it on a point in time, or are they averaging all polling from a range of times?
I don't know how far back polling data is readily available, i'm almost curious enough to do it myself.
theignoramus
Member
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
He has gotten away from statistics and is delving into punditry.
I would be curious to know, for example the number of previous primaries where a candidate has maintained a 15 to 20 point lead for months, and still lost versus won.
Something a numbers guy would figure out.
Veritigo_X
Member
Giuliani in 08. But I don't think his situation is even remotely comparable to Trump's. For one, Giuliani put all his money on Florida winning him the nomination while Trump is campaigning all over the early states.
Vermillion
Banned
Dude, like, my vote doesn't count anyways, so like, why does it matter?
You can look at all polls for a range of times. They're never really very good in the sense they aren't very predictive. The poll this thread is about, for instance, is a ~400 person national poll (primaries aren't national, obviously, and this matters), didn't filter likely voters and biased itself by asking immigration questions before asking about a particular candidate they support.
Exit polling suggests people voting don't actually decide until a couple weeks or even days before the primary. There's also some good research regarding the success (or lack thereof) of candidates that don't have the support of the party and don't have endorsements.
Exactly zero more votes have been cast and zero delegates won since July. Until people actually get to the ballot box, the race is pure entertainment and voters can say whatever they want in polls without consequence. There has been a shift in what people are saying, though. Back then they were expecting Trump to flame out and be a non-entity. Now people expect him to be a presence in the primaries, but ultimately to be too niche to win once the field clears a bit and the establishment types have a single candidate to rally around.
To answer your question, somewhere around the South Carolina and Florida primaries is the point where it is no longer too early to tell in Republican primaries. I know you are dismissing historical precedent as a 'meme', but if we look at past primaries, coming into them as the frontrunner can be risky. You can win a primary, but if your victory is not as big as predicted, then suddenly the narrative becomes that you underperformed and momentum is swinging against you. This has played out in multiple primaries in the past - you may remember it from Hillary Clinton's "firewall" in 2008.
teruterubozu
Member
Well that's kind of true all the way up to the ballot box. Even exit polls can be highly misleading. It's a numbers game at every phase. Some people want to play it earlier than others, that's all.
He'll never be president of this country, but the damage he's done is going to affect all of us for a very long time. He's re-opened those old wounds and rekindled the fire of hatred in those that had barely a flicker left. He's done the absolute worst thing you could do is give the hateful a reason to keep going.
The damage is done. This country is fucked.
The damage is done. This country is fucked.
excelsiorlef
Member
I don't see any reason to believe the establishment are going to get a single candidate before it's too late. Jeb's PAC plans to salt the earth against establishment competitors.
Depends on the state. You can if your state has an open primary.
I told people before that Trump could legit have a Ronald Regan like election turnout. I mean I'm likely reaching but this is seriously scary. The hate in America has grown and become so widespread in the most I have ever seen in all my young years of living.
It's grown to a point where people will now vote for a known racist, xenophobe with some Hitler esque polices. It would be one thing if it was just Republicans voting for that kind of person, but it's both sides too.
All because he quote on quote "tells it like it is"...whatever the hell that "it" is. -_-
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Because cold hard demographics and the electoral college setup mean that the GOP has almost no chance of winning this election and Trump even less so.
Their allowed to vote in one of the primaries, generally.
Butts-a-plenty
Banned
If a state has a closed primary you are not allowed to vote in party elections if you are not a member of either party. People really need to keep in mind that the entire primary process is orchestrated by the the parties. It isn't some American right or enshrined in any legal documents. It's about each party picking their candidate. If they feel that they only want people registered as members of their party to have a say in that process that is entirely within their rights.
Some states have closed primaries in which only registered members of a party can vote in that party's primary. Some have open where anyone, regardless of registration, can vote in any party's primary. Some stats allow Independents to vote in one primary if it's a closed primary state. Some states have pseudo-open primaries where you can change your party registration on primary day. So if you're a Democrat or Independent who wants to vote in the Republican primary, you can change your registration on primary day and vote in the Republican primary.
Dixon's Jet
Banned
My dad insists Trump won't get the nomination, but judging by the Ben Carson book he got 50 percent off at B&N I know who he would vote for if it came to it.
My mom says that although she dislikes Trump, he could surprise us all by being a good president in the end.
I say fuck Trump but I can't use that kind of language without upsetting them.
My mom says that although she dislikes Trump, he could surprise us all by being a good president in the end.
I say fuck Trump but I can't use that kind of language without upsetting them.
If I was an American I'd stay home on polling day, or spoil my ballot.
Hillary is as much a snake as her husband, has no accomplishments and has pursued disastrous foreign policy.
BlastProcessing
Member
It's hyperbole to think that you, personally, won't vote for Hillary because you don't want another Clinton in the White House after you said "I personally won't vote for Hilary because I don't want another Clinton in the White House."?
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