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Next-Gen PS5 & Next Xbox |OT| Speculation/Analysis/Leaks Thread

Next Gen Consoles Power Level

  • 5.8TF (24CU ) 7nm DUV ≥ 1660Ti tier

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    66

mckmas8808

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May 24, 2005
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When i think about it. The console manufactures dug themselves into a whole with their pro varients of their consoles because its skewed everyones expectations. If they just stuck with the ps4 and xbox one for whole life cycle. the annoucement of an 9 or 8tflop console with an ssd and ryzen would have been fucking killer.

I think the pro varient consoles put em in a position where they have no choice but raise the specs. Sony said they are targeting the hardcore and see playstation as a "niche market". I am sure most hardcore gamers are able to see the minimal jump between the pro and ps5. Yes to us there is more going on in the gpu than just to tflops but for most ppl they see a 2x jump in power leaves very little incentive to buy the ps5.
@SonGoku
You're assuming the people that bought the PS4 Pro, wouldn't be on the front lines to buy the PS5. And no game was made for the PS4 PRO specifically.
 
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vpance

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Yes to us there is more going on in the gpu than just to tflops but for most ppl they see a 2x jump in power leaves very little incentive to buy the ps5.
Best not to think of it like that. Think like, what can devs do with 6-8 extra TF? Nobody knows because on PC the extra power just goes to more res/FPS/tacked on effects. Never mind 4x CPU, SSD and 4x RAM (from 5GB available to 20GB).

If they use resolution tricks (which they will) it's like 8-10 extra TF.
 

Sycomunkee

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Jan 21, 2019
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When i think about it. The console manufactures dug themselves into a whole with their pro varients of their consoles because its skewed everyones expectations. If they just stuck with the ps4 and xbox one for whole life cycle. the annoucement of an 9 or 8tflop console with an ssd and ryzen would have been fucking killer.

I think the pro varient consoles put em in a position where they have no choice but raise the specs. Sony said they are targeting the hardcore and see playstation as a "niche market". I am sure most hardcore gamers are able to see the minimal jump between the pro and ps5. Yes to us there is more going on in the gpu than just to tflops but for most ppl they see a 2x jump in power leaves very little incentive to buy the ps5.
@SonGoku
But the new technology trumps the old technology significantly. 9TF Navi is more efficient than 11TF GCN. Zen 2 is significantly better than Jaguar. Most people aren’t reading about TFLOPS, only the hardcore forum goers. But proof is in the pudding, show me the games and the improvements. If they can do that they’ve won despite the TFLOP numbers.

Even if it’s only 2x the power, anything significant multiplied by two is far more significant than half of something.
 
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SonGoku

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When i think about it. The console manufactures dug themselves into a whole with their pro varients of their consoles because its skewed everyone expectations. If they just stuck with the ps4 and xbox one for whole life cycle. the announcement of an 9 or 8tflop console with an ssd and ryzen would have been fucking killer.
Not really, even without pro revisions 5700XT performance is simply not enough for a next gen leap at 4k
If the target resolution was 1440p it would be okish but for 4k next gen games its out of its league
But the new technology trumps the old technology significantly. 9TF Navi is more efficient than 11TF GCN.
12TF GCN is an empty claim because Vega is severely bottlenecked at the front end and not designed around gaming. It was never a benchmark for next gen
2060 - 2060 Super tier for PS5.
$400
1440p - 1080p
 
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Sycomunkee

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Not really, even without pro revisions 5700XT performance is simply not enough for a next gen leap at 4k
If the target resolution was 1440p it would be okish but for 4k next gen games its out of its league
Maybe, but I’m going to assume the games tested weren’t as optimized as console games would be which would provide a significantly different result. There are a lot of games on PC that don’t run well at 4K with an RX580, but do so on an Xbox One X.
 
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SonGoku

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Maybe, but I’m going to assume the games tested weren’t as optimized as console games would be which would provide a significantly different result. There are a lot of games on PC that don’t run well at 4K with an RX580, but do so on an Xbox One X.
But keep in mind these are current gen games we are comparing, next gen games will be much more demanding before even factoring RT which is another resource hog.
This is why i think console manufacturers accounted for 7nm EUV on their plans/design. With EUV they can reach 12TF (2080 SUPER+ tier) without breaking the bank on silicon size and cooling solution
On DUV they'll have to spend more on a bigger chip that can be shrunk in 2021 (6nm) for cost reductions.
 
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Sycomunkee

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Jan 21, 2019
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But keep in mind these are current gen games we are comparing, next gen games will be much more demanding before even factoring RT which is another resource hog.
This is why i think console manufacturers accounted for 7nm EUV on their plans/design. With EUV they can reach 12TF (2080 SUPER+ tier) without breaking the bank on silicon size and cooling solution
On DUV they'll have to spend more on a bigger chip that can be shrunk in 2021 (6nm) for cost reductions.
They still need to have optimized drivers, otherwise the GPU will just brute force it’s way through.
 
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IceManCat

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Aug 10, 2015
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When i think about it. The console manufactures dug themselves into a whole with their pro varients of their consoles because its skewed everyones expectations. If they just stuck with the ps4 and xbox one for whole life cycle. the annoucement of an 9 or 8tflop console with an ssd and ryzen would have been fucking killer.

I think the pro varient consoles put em in a position where they have no choice but raise the specs. Sony said they are targeting the hardcore and see playstation as a "niche market". I am sure most hardcore gamers are able to see the minimal jump between the pro and ps5. Yes to us there is more going on in the gpu than just to tflops but for most ppl they see a 2x jump in power leaves very little incentive to buy the ps5.
@SonGoku

I wonder if Sony was referring to consoles in general as being niche or the ps5 itself since mobile gaming has now reached the mass market
 

Ovech-King

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Feb 27, 2017
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To also support very thoughtful theories of Son of Goku , I'm sure Sony and Microsoft are ready to mesure Tflops dicks with Stadia since Google made sure to mention how powerful their 10.7 Tflops are versus the current consoles . Because of that I expect a solid 12 Tflops+ reveal from both so they can rub it in Google face marketing wise without even playing the "running games over stream = loss in graphic fidelity" card.
 
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Oct 26, 2018
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To also support very thoughtful theories of Son of Goku , I'm sure Sony and Microsoft are ready to mesure Tflops dicks with Stadia since Google made sure to mention how powerful their 10.7 Tflops are versus the current consoles . Because of that I expect a solid 12 Tflops+ reveal from both so they can rub it in Google face marketing wise without even playing the "running games over stream = loss in graphic fidelity" card.
I agree. If Stadia can pull off 10.7tf, I don't see how MS/Sony can't at least atch that despite some of these posts people are talking about with PS5/Scarlett topping out at maybe 9 tf.

Doesn't make sense.
 
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vpance

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Even AMD is advertising the 5700XT as a 1440p card for current gen games

Unless next gen consoles target 1440p, 5700XT performance won't cut it.
A lot of games will do 1920x2160 and some 1440p. Doesn't matter if they had 8TF or 11TF.
 

SonGoku

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A lot of games will do 1920x2160 and some 1440p. Doesn't matter if they had 8TF or 11TF.
But at 8TF they are hell of a lot more limited and targeting 1440p (or lower) becomes the only sane option to deliver next gen graphics
I think both ms/Sony know this and planned accordingly. RDNA2, RT, 7nm+ it just fits :p
 
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CyberPanda

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Microsoft has dropped the first tease of its next-generation Xbox console, paving the underpinnings of the future of Xbox. The mysterious Xbox Project Scarlett saw its unveiling in June at Microsoft's E3 2019 press conference, pitching a console surpassing early expectations and on track for next year.

While Redmond is keeping hardware specifics under wraps, here's what we know so far.

Xbox Project Scarlett Full Tech Specs

Project Scarlett is a central component of Microsoft's future-facing gaming efforts, positioned as its next flagship console at E3 2019. Tailing the 4K-brandished Xbox One X, the elusive successor promises a generational shift akin to the original Xbox One debut in 2013. Development on the high-horsepower box remains underway, set to rival the Sony PlayStation 5 in 2020.

While early reports alluded to tiered Xbox consoles dubbed "Anaconda" and "Lockhart,"Microsoft's E3 conference indicated plans have since consolidated to one device. The console aims to achieve 8K resolutions, or 4K at up to 120 frames-per-second (FPS), complemented by ray-tracing, variable refresh rate (VRR) support, and more. While Microsoft appears reluctant to share firm specifications, here's what we know in 2019.

ProcessorCustom AMD Zen 2-based CPU
GraphicsCustom AMD Navi-based GPU
MemoryGDDR6 RAM
StorageSolid-state drive (SSD)
Video output8K, 4K @ 120Hz
Optical drive✔
PortsUnknown
ColorUnknown
PriceUnknown
Release dateHoliday 2020
Expect Xbox Project Scarlett's full specifications to stay under wraps for the months ahead, likely ahead of a full 2020 debut.

What do the Xbox Project Scarlett specs mean?

At the heart of Project Scarlett lies a custom-designed CPU founded on AMD's Zen 2 architecture. Previously behind chipsets fueling the Xbox One family, the leading U.S. manufacturer extends efforts via its latest processor technology. The Zen 2 family touts improved performance and efficiency, with Project Scarlett poised to deliver four times the CPU power of Xbox One X. With the current Xbox flagship heavily reliant on its GPU advancements, Scarlett's revamped system-on-chip (SoC) helps alleviate a primary bottleneck.

A Navi-based GPU flanks the Zen 2 brains, powered by AMD's latest wave of graphics technologies. It assembles a formidable SoC for next-generation gaming, with the added capabilities of "hardware-accelerated" ray tracing. NVIDIA has already drawn eyes with its GeForce RTX GPU lineup's real-time ray tracing capabilities, and both Microsoft and Sony are set to follow suit. We also expect the Project Scarlett to embrace HDMI 2.1 to output its promised 8K resolution or 4K at 120 Hz.

High-bandwidth GDDR6 RAM also makes the cut, an expected but welcomed addition to bolster horsepower. Digital Foundry unearthed traces of Samsung-fabricated 14gbps modules in the Scarlett reveal, despite efforts to otherwise shroud specifications.

Microsoft's added commitment to solid-state drive (SSD) storage is an understated and vital final inclusion under Scarlett. Microsoft details "a new generation of SSDs," alluding to a form of proprietary setup tailored to the console. Early testing has seen a 40 times performance increase over existing Xbox One family, attributed to improved read and write times. Faster overall storage brings huge gains, drastically slicing load times and installations.

The result is a future-facing console build on strong foundations, already boasting 8K 120 FPS gaming with variable refresh rate (VRR) support. Paired with the benefits of SSD storage, Scarlett establishes promising foundations for the next generation of consoles.

Project Scarlett is slated to launch in the 2020 holiday season, alongside first-person shooter blockbuster, Halo: Infinite.
 
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SonGoku

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Really doubt that anybody here would notice the difference between 1440p and 4k on a TV.
Agreed but they dug themselves in a hole by advertising 4k this gen and doubling down on 8k for next gen 🤦‍♂️
 
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Oct 26, 2018
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Agreed but they dug themselves in a hole by advertising 4k this gen and doubling down on 8k for next gen 🤦‍♂️

LOL. For an article written today (July 9th), that might be the most shallow click bait Scarlett article I've ever seen. It's like they pieced together what they found out a month ago and rewrote a new article
 

vpance

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But at 8TF they are hell of a lot more limited and targeting 1440p (or lower) becomes the only sane option to deliver next gen graphics
I think both ms/Sony know this and planned accordingly. RDNA2, RT, 7nm+ it just fits :p
Devs will maximize all the TFs for shading, lighting and RT. But I bet all current gen games will run close to 4K60 easily in BC mode. That's gonna be a marketed feature.
 
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Kazekage1981

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Apr 7, 2019
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Remember the good old days on how we used to compare console specs?

How many bits is Scarlett and PS5? I hope it beats snes and genesis 16-bits of processing power
How many texture mapped polygons per second? PS1 and Sega Saturn could do up to 120,000 texture mapped polygons per second! Virtua Fighter and Tekken looked so good!
How may on screen colors? Definitley beats Genesis 64 color palette and SNES 256 color palette
How is the sound quality? Hope it beats CD quality Q-sound!
Does it have expandibility? Nothing beats genesis + sega cd + 32x + sonic and knuckles + sonic 3 stack!!

Remember when KRAZY KEN stated that the CELL processor was = 1% of the human brain? Well if you combine 100 Cell processors with AMD's infinity fabric or some sort of interconnect you get 100% human brainz!!!!!! Sony should go back to Krazy Ken and get the CELL back for ps5


 
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sonomamashine

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Jun 29, 2019
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The piss poor 5700XT performance at 4k further cements my confidence on 2080-2080S+ tier consoles
Even AMD is advertising the 5700XT as a 1440p card for current gen games

Unless next gen consoles target 1440p, 5700XT performance won't cut it.
they can make 8k and 4k60fps with lower quality, less details ...
1440p, 1080p at max, i don't see the problem, keep in mind the 36+Mb game cache that allows less latency more frame rate, not running Windows and some background apps
 

R600

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Very indicative slide if you are still dreaming of ~400mm² dies (and no, Scarlett is not 380mm² confirmed).
 

R600

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all i want is 60fps and 4K why can't i have that?
Because 4K is a meme? Especially when you realize idiots that are going on about it also use FXAA to remove edges, basically shitting across image quality like its no bodies business
If 4K is so important, then MSAA should be used along because otherwise you are smearing your image with post processing effect so you may as well use good upscaling method and save tons of GPU time.
 

MadAnon

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Very indicative slide if you are still dreaming of ~400mm² dies (and no, Scarlett is not 380mm² confirmed).
I mean, look how small the die of Radeon VII is compared to Turing. It's much smaller than even 2060 but the price is just insane.
 
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R600

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I mean, look how small the die of Radeon VII is compared to Turing. It's much smaller than even 2060 but the price is just insane.
Yap.

And you can see it in Navi vs Polaris.

Polaris was 231mm² ~ 200-250$
Navi is 250mm² ~ 350$

7nm node is 4x more expensive per yield then 45nm. More then 2x vs 28nm (which original consoles where manufactured on) and 1.8x 16nm.

So at this point 100$ SOC from PS4 would cost 200$, so for everyone going on about 400mm² dies or bust, keep this in mind.

Also, memory will cost more as will cooling and SSD. 499$ for ~8-9TF consoles is given.
 
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R600

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Not relevant to consoles though.

7nm is like double the cost of 16nm for 250mm2. Must be even worse at 350+. The case for EUV is getting stronger.
Its not that EUV will be cheaper, its that general downsizing in manufacturing node costs more and more. EUV is wanted duo to lower power requirements and more density, still costs will be high and we wont be getting 400mm² consoles.

I say we are getting 320-350mm² dies on 7nm or EUV. Not an mm more.
 

LordOfChaos

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Not relevant to consoles though.
It's already been used in a console
spooky music

Monolithic CPUs and monolithic GPUs are both more performant than MCMs, but nothing is to say those two distinct parts couldn't be on an MCM with unified memory (well, apart from the Scarlet render). Zen 2 also proved that a step back in RAM access times doesn't hurt performance too much with their expanded caches, so possibly IO on another chip too, and GPUs care even less about latencies.

 
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xool

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Another few slides down they mention the MCM drops die size costs 41% vs monolithic. I wonder.
(41% reduced, so 59%) Is this cherry picked data though ?- recent reports were giving 85% yields at 7nm - so how exactly is cost going to go down, unless they were comparing to way too big dies with ~50% yields ??

..

This is where we are right now :



After the "knee" on the right graph - mutliplying of transistors per gen led by node shrinks on the steeply descending 'cell cost' slope looks to be over - we're now on the shallow downward slope post 28nm

.. I think we see this effect in recent trends in GPU performance per cost, and will see it in disappointing increases in GPU power next gen. SSD cost is still plummeting though hence the focus on that for PS5/XBOX2.

(I think I said the exact same thing 50 pages back .. worth repeating)

[edit] There's an alternative analysis of the right hand graph -and that is that the apparent "knee" is just a bit of noise + some "latency" on the transition to EUV + short term increases due to multi-patterning pre-EUV .. and in fact the curve is still exponential decay of cost over time (i hope)
 
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vpance

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Its not that EUV will be cheaper, its that general downsizing in manufacturing node costs more and more. EUV is wanted duo to lower power requirements and more density, still costs will be high and we wont be getting 400mm² consoles.

I say we are getting 320-350mm² dies on 7nm or EUV. Not an mm more.
I think there was a graph posted here before that EUV brings costs back down to 16nm levels.

It's already been used in a console
spooky music

Monolithic CPUs and monolithic GPUs are both more performant than MCMs, but nothing is to say those two distinct parts couldn't be on an MCM with unified memory (well, apart from the Scarlet render). Zen 2 also proved that a step back in RAM access times doesn't hurt performance too much with their expanded caches, so possibly IO on another chip too, and GPUs care even less about latencies.

It's been used before but I don't think it will for PS5 or Nextbox. Next next gen will see all sorts of crazy chip packaging though.
 

mckmas8808

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May 24, 2005
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Its not that EUV will be cheaper, its that general downsizing in manufacturing node costs more and more. EUV is wanted duo to lower power requirements and more density, still costs will be high and we wont be getting 400mm² consoles.

I say we are getting 320-350mm² dies on 7nm or EUV. Not an mm more.
I thought one of the whole points of going to a smaller node was to "save" cost? Isn't that what the PS3 and PS4 both did through out their time?
 
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LordOfChaos

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I thought one of the whole points of going to a smaller node was to "save" cost? Isn't that what the PS3 and PS4 both did through out their time?
They saved cost because the dies got smaller. Here we're saying for the same die size, i.e 200mm2, the cost increases over time, and is quite high on 7nm. But that's countered by the increase in logic density, ie why GPUs are getting faster and faster even though the die sizes would be considered lower end in previous generations, and why people are wrong to look at current GPUs and say they're selling what would be mid range parts at top end prices, without considering the cost per unit die size.
 

pawel86ck

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Because 4K is a meme? Especially when you realize idiots that are going on about it also use FXAA to remove edges, basically shitting across image quality like its no bodies business
If 4K is so important, then MSAA should be used along because otherwise you are smearing your image with post processing effect so you may as well use good upscaling method and save tons of GPU time.
FXAA look worse compared to MSAA, but the difference in sharpness is very subtle unlike TXAA or TAA for example. I'm using FXAA sometimes and it doesnt look like upscaled picture at all.
 
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